A genetic programming model for real-time crash prediction on freeways

IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems

Volumn 14, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 574-586

  Xu, Chengcheng ^a   Wang, Wei ^a   Liu, Pan ^a  

^a SOUTHEAST UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Binary logit model; freeway; genetic programming (GP); real time crash prediction; traffic safety

Indexed keywords

BINARY LOGIT MODEL; CRASH PREDICTION; PREDICTION PERFORMANCE; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC CURVES; TRAFFIC CONDITIONS; TRAFFIC FLOW CHARACTERISTICS; TRAFFIC SAFETY; TRAINING DATA SETS;

DECISION TREES; FORECASTING; GENETIC PROGRAMMING; HIGHWAY PLANNING; HIGHWAY SYSTEMS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; TRAFFIC CONGESTION;

HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS;

EID: 84878679947     PISSN: 15249050     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TITS.2012.2226240     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. C. Lee, B. Hellinga, and K. Ozbay, "Quantifying effects of ramp metering on freeway safety, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 279-288, Mar. 2006. (Pubitemid 43121251)
2. M. Abdel-Aty, J. Dilmore, and A. Dhindsa, "Evaluation of variable speed limits for real-time freeway safety improvement, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 335-345, Mar. 2006. (Pubitemid 43121258)
3. M. Abdel-Aty, J. Dilmore, and V. Gayah, "Considering various ALINEA ramp metering strategies for crash risk mitigation on freeways under congested regime, " Transp. Res. C: Emerging Technol., vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 113-134, Apr. 2007. (Pubitemid 46667710)
4. M. Abdel-Aty, N. Uddin, F. Abdalla, A. Pande, and L. Hsia, "Predicting freeway crashes from loop detector data using matched-case-control logistic regression, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1897, no. 1, pp. 88-95, 2004. (Pubitemid 40536401)
5. M. Abdel-Aty, N. Uddin, and A. Pande, "Split models for predicting multivehicle crashes during high-speed and low-speed operating conditions on freeways, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1908, no. 1, pp. 51-58, 2005. (Pubitemid 43240309)
6. Z. Zheng, S. Ahna, and C. Monsere, "Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 626-636, Mar. 2010.
7. M. Abdel-Aty and P. Rajashekar, "Calibrating a real-time traffic crashprediction model using archived weather and ITS traffic data, " IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 167-174, Jun. 2006. (Pubitemid 44144053)
8. C. Xu, P. Liu, W. Wang, and Z. Li, "Evaluation of the impacts of traffic states on crash risks on freeways, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 47, pp. 162-171, Jul. 2012.
9. M. Abdel-Aty, H. Hassan, M. Ahmed, and A. Al-Ghamdi, "Real-time prediction of visibility-related crashes, " Transp. Res. C, vol. 24, pp. 288-298, Oct. 2012.
10. M. Ahmed and M. Abdel-Aty, "The viability of using automatic vehicle identification data for real-time crash prediction, " IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 459-468, Jun. 2012.
11. M. Ahmed, M. Abdel-Aty, and R. Yu, "A Bayesian updating approach for real-time safety evaluation using AVI data, " presented at the Annu. Meeting Transport. Res. Board, Washington, DC, 2012.
12. C. Lee, F. Saccomanno, and B. Hellinga, "Analysis of crash precursors on instrumented freeways, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1784, pp. 1-8, 2002.
13. C. Lee, B. Hellinga, and F. Saccomanno, "Real-time crash prediction model for application to crash prevention in freeway traffic, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1840, pp. 67-77, 2003.
14. J. Oh, C. Oh, S. Ritchie, and M. Chang, "Real-time estimation of accident likelihood for safety enhancement, " J. Transp. Eng., vol. 131, no. 5, pp. 358-363, May 2005. (Pubitemid 40621384)
15. M. Ahmed, M. Abdel-Aty, and R. Yu, "Assessment of the interaction between crash occurrence, mountainous freeway geometry, real-time weather and AVI traffic data, " presented at the Annu. Meeting Transport. Res. Board, Washington, DC, 2012.
16. C. Lee, M. Abdel-Aty, and L. Hsia, "Potential real-time indicators of sideswipe crashes on freeways, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1953, no. 1, pp. 41-49, 2006. (Pubitemid 44877603)
17. T. Golob, W. Recker, and Y. Pavlis, "Probabilistic models of freeway safety performance using traffic flow data as predictors, " Safety Sci., vol. 46, no. 9, pp. 1306-1333, Nov. 2008.
18. C. Lee, P. Park, and M. Abdel-Aty, "Lane-by-lane analysis of crash occurrence based on driver's lane-changing and car-following behavior, " J. Transp. Safety Security, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 108-122, 2011.
19. C. Xu, P. Liu, W. Wang, and C. Yu, "Exploration and identification of hazardous traffic flow states before crash occurrences on freeways, " presented at the Annu. Meeting Transport. Res. Board, Washington, DC, 2011.
20. C. Xu, P. Liu, W. Wang, and Z. Li, "Development of a crash risk index to identify real-time crash risks on freeways, " presented at the Annu. Meeting Transport. Res. Board, Washington, DC, 2012.
21. Z. Christoforou, S. Cohen, and M. Karlaftis, "Identifying crash type propensity using real-time traffic data on freeways, " J. Safety Res., vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 43-50, Feb. 2011.
22. L. Mussone, A. Ferrari, and M. Oneta, "An analysis of urban collisions using an artificial intelligence model, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 705-718, Nov. 1999.
23. D. Delen, R. Sharda, and M. Bessonov, "Identifying significant predictors of injury severity in traffic accidents using a series of artificial neural networks, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 38, no. 3, pp. 434-444, May 2006.
24. P. Miaou and D. Lord, "Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: Dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1840, pp. 31-40, 2003.
25. C. Oh, J. Oh, and S. Ritchie, "Real-time hazardous traffic condition warning system: Framework and evaluation, " IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 265-272, Sep. 2005. (Pubitemid 41634330)
26. M. Abdel-Aty and A. Pande, "Identifying crash propensity using specific traffic speed conditions, " J. Safety Res., vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 97-108, Jan. 2005. (Pubitemid 40304499)
27. M. Hossain and Y. Muromachi, "Development of a real-time crash prediction model for urban expressway, " J. Eastern Asia Soc. Transp. Stud., vol. 8, pp. 2092-2107, 2010.
28. M. Hossain and Y. Muromachi, "Evaluating location of placement and spacing of detectors for real-time crash prediction on urban expressways, " presented at the Annu. Meeting Transport. Res. Board, Washington, DC, 2010.
29. A. Pande and M. Abdel-Aty, "Assessment of freeway traffic parameters leading to lane-change-related collisions, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 936-948, 2006. (Pubitemid 44015630)
30. A. Pande and M. Abdel-Aty, "Comprehensive analysis of the relationship between real-time traffic surveillance data and rear-end crashes on freeways, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 1953, pp. 31-40, 2007. (Pubitemid 44877602)
31. A. Pande, A. Das, M. Abdel-Aty, and H. Hassan, "Real-time crash risk estimation: Are all freeways created equal?" Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 2237, pp. 60-66, 2011.
32. M. Hossain and Y. Muromachi, "Understanding crash mechanism and selecting appropriate interventions for real-time hazard mitigation on urban expressways, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 2213, pp. 53-62, 2011.
33. X. Qu, W. Wang, P. Liu, and D. Noyce, "Real-time prediction of freeway rear-end crash potential by support vector machine, " presented at the Annu. Meeting Transport. Res. Board, Washington, DC, 2012.
34. R. Koza, Genetic Programming: On the Programming of Computers by Means of Natural Selection. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992.
35. A. Das and M. Abdel-Aty, "A genetic programming approach to explore the crash severity on multilane roads, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 548-557, Mar. 2010.
36. A. Das, M. Abdel-Aty, and A. Pande, "Genetic programming to investigate design parameters contributing to crash occurrence on urban arterials, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 2147, pp. 25-32, 2010.
37. H. Etemadi, A. Rostamy, and H. Dehkordi, "A genetic programming model for bankruptcy prediction: Empirical evidence from Iran, " Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 3199-3207, Mar. 2009.
38. E. McKee and T. Lensberg, "Genetic programming and rough sets: A hybrid approach to bankruptcy classification, " Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 138, no. 2, pp. 436-451, Apr. 2002. (Pubitemid 34065108)
39. T. Lensberg, A. Eilifsen, and E. McKee, "Bankruptcy theory development and classification via genetic programming, " Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 169, no. 2, pp. 677-697, Mar. 2006. (Pubitemid 41375715)
40. M. Abdel-Aty, A. Pande, C. Lee, V. Gayah, R. Cunningham, A. Dhindsa, and J. Dilmore, "Linking crash patterns to ITS-related archived data-Phase II, Volume I: Real-time crash risk assessment models BD-550-5, " Florida Dept. Transp., Tallahassee, FL, 2007.
41. L. Breiman, "Random forests, " Mach. Learn., vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 5-32, 2001. (Pubitemid 32933532)
42. R. Harb, X. Yan, E. Radwan, and X. Su, "Exploring precrash maneuvers using classification trees and random forests, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 98-107, Jan. 2009.
43. F. Xu and Z. Tian, "Driver behavior and gap-acceptance characteristics at roundabouts in California, " Transp. Res. Rec., vol. 2071, pp. 117-124, 2008.
44. P. Liu, J. Lu, H. Zhou, and G. Sokolow, "Operational effects of U-turns as alternatives to direct left-turns, " J. Transp. Eng., vol. 133, no. 5, pp. 327-334, May 2007. (Pubitemid 46605611)
45. S. Hubbard, D. Bullock, and F. Mannering, "Right turns on green and pedestrian level of service: Statistical assessment, " J. Transp. Eng., vol. 135, no. 4, pp. 153-159, Apr. 2009.
46. S. Washington, M. Karlaftis, and F. Mannering, Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2003, pp. 250-253.
47. RandomForest: Breiman and Cutler's Random Forests for Classification and Regression. [Online]. Available: http://code. google.com/p/randomforest-matlab/
48. S. Silva, GPLAB-A Genetic Programming Toolbox for MATLAB, MathWorks, Natick, MA. [Online]. Available: http://gplab. sourceforge.net/
49. L. Davis, "Adapting operator probabilities in genetic algorithms, " in Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. Genetic Algorithms, 1989, pp. 61-69.
50. S. Luke and L. Panait, "Lexicographic parsimony pressure, " in Proc. GECCO, 2002, pp. 829-836.
51. D. Gazis, R. Herman, and G. H. Weiss, "Density oscillations between lanes of a multilane highway, " Oper. Res., vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 658-667, Sep. /Oct. 1962.
52. M. Lord, A. Manar, and A. Vizioli, "Modeling crash-flow-density and crash-flow-V/C ratio relationships for rural and urban freeway segments, " Accid. Anal. Prev., vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 185-199, 2005.
53. E. Hauer, Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety: Estimating the Effect of Highway and Traffic Engineering Measures on Road Safety. New York: Pergamon, 2002.
54. R. Carlson, I. Papamichail, and M. Papageorgiou, "Local feedback-based mainstream traffic flow control on motorways using variable speed limits, " IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1261-1276, Dec. 2011.
55. J. Frejo and E. Camacho, "Global versus local MPC algorithms in freeway traffic control with ramp metering and variable speed limits, " IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1556-1565, Dec. 2012.
56. D. Zhao, X. Bai, F.-Y. Wang, J. Xu, and W. Yu, "DHP method for ramp metering of freeway traffic, " IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 990-999, Dec. 2011.