Recent changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal, in the period 1941-2007

Atmospheric Research

Volumn 127, Issue , 2013, Pages 195-209

  De Lima, M Isabel P ^a,b   Santo, Fátima Espírito ^c   Ramos, Alexandre M ^d,e   de Lima, João L M P ^a,f  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COIMBRA   (Portugal)

^b INSTITUTO POLITÉCNICO DE COIMBRA   (Portugal)

^c INSTITUTO PORTUGUÊS DO MAR E DA ATMOSFERA   (Portugal)

^d UNIVERSITY OF VIGO   (Spain)

^e UNIVERSITY OF LISBON   (Portugal)

^f UNIVERSITY OF COIMBRA   (Portugal)

Author keywords

Air temperature; Climate variability; Precipitation; Trend

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANNUAL PRECIPITATION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; SEASONAL PRECIPITATIONS; SPRING PRECIPITATION; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES; TREND;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

LASERS;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE VARIATION; EXTREME EVENT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); TREND ANALYSIS;

PORTUGAL;

EID: 84876704741     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.001     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Alexander L.V., Zhang X., Peterson T.C., Caesar J., et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D05109. 10.1029/2005JD006290.
2. Alexandersson H. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J. Climatol. 1986, 6:661-675. 10.1002/joc.3370060607.
3. Allen M.R., Ingram W.J. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 2002, 419:224-232.
4. Berg P., Haerter J.O. Unexpected increase in precipitation intensity with temperature - a result of mixing of precipitation types?. Atmos. Res. 2011, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.05.012.
5. Besselaar E.J.M., Klein Tank A.M.G., Schrier G. Influence of circulation types on temperature extremes in Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2010, 99:431-439. 10.1007/s00704-009-0153-6.
6. Buishand T.A. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J. Hydrol. 1982, 58:11-27.
7. Corte-Real J., Qian B., Xu H. Regional climate change in Portugal: precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 1998, 18:619-635.
8. Costa A.C., Soares A. Trends in extreme precipitation indices derived from a daily rainfall database for the South of Portugal. Int. J. Climatol. 2009, 29(13):1956-1975.
9. de Lima M.I.P., Schertzer D., Lovejoy S., de Lima J.L.M.P. Multifractals and the study of extreme precipitation events: a case study from semi-arid and humid regions in Portugal. Surface Water Hydrology 2002, 195-211. A.A. Balkema Publishers, Swets & Zeitlinger B.V., Lisse, The Netherlands. V.P. Singh, M. Al-Rashid, M.M. Sherif (Eds.).
10. de Lima M.I.P., Marques A.C.P., de Lima J.L.M.P., Coelho M.F.E.S. Precipitation trends in Mainland Portugal in the period 1941-2000. IAHS Publ. 2007, 310:94-102. International Association of Hydrological Sciences.
11. de Lima M.I.P., Carvalho S.C.P., de Lima J.L.M.P. Investigating annual and monthly trends in precipitation structure: an overview across Portugal. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2010, 10:2429-2440. 10.5194/nhess-10-2429-2010.
12. de Lima M.I.P., Coelho M.F.E.S., Carvalho S.C.P., de Lima J.L.M.P. Recent variability in the temporal structure of precipitation in Portugal: an analysis across scales. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability, ASCE, Palm Springs, USA, 22-26 May, 2011. Climate Change Symposium 2011, 1429-1438. (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/41173(414)149).
13. de Luis M., Brunetti M., Gonzlez-Hidalgo J.C., Longares L.A., Martín-Vide J. Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula during 1946-2005, Global Planet. Change 2010, 74:27-33. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.06.006.
14. de Luis M., González-Hidalgo J.C., Brunetti M., Longares L.A. Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946-2005. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 11:1259-1265. 10.5194/nhess-11-1259-2011.
15. Durão R., Pereira M.J., Costa A.C., CÔrte-Real J.M., Soares A. Indices of precipitation extremes in Southern Portugal - a geostatistical approach. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 9:241-250. 10.5194/nhess-9-241-2009.
16. Easterling D.R., Horton B., Jones P.D., Peterson T.C., Karl T.R., Parker D.E., Salinger M.J., Razuvayev V., Plummer N., Jamason P., Folland C.K. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 1997, 277(5324):364-367. 10.1126/science.277.5324.364.
17. El Kenawy A., López-Moreno J.I., Vicente-Serrano S.M. Trend and variability of surface air temperature in northeastern Spain (1920-2006): linkage to atmospheric circulation. Atmos. Res. 2011, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.12.006.
18. Fernández-González S., del Río S., Castro A., Penas A., Fernández-Raga M., Calvo A.I., Fraile R. Connection between NAO, weather types and precipitation in León, Spain (1948-2008). Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 10.1002/joc.2431.
19. Fernández-Montes S., Rodrigo F.S. Trends in seasonal indices of daily temperature extremes in the Iberian Peninsula, 1929-2005. Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 10.1002/joc.3399.
20. Frich P., Alexander L.V., Della-Marta P., Gleason B., Haylock M., Klein Tank A.M.G., Peterson T. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim. Res. 2002, 19:193-212.
21. Gilbert R.O. Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring 1987, John Wiley & Sons, New York, USA.
22. Gómez-Gesteira M., Gimeno L., deCastro M., Lorenzo M.N., et al. The state of climate in NW Iberia. Clim. Res. 2011, 48:109-144.
23. Goodess C.M., Jones P.D. Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 2002, 22(13):1593-1615.
24. Held I.M., Soden B.J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 2006, 19:5686-5699. 10.1175/JCLI3990.1.
25. IPCC Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, (996 pp.). S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
26. Karl T.R., Knight R.W., Baker B. The record breaking global temperature of 1997 and 1998: evidence for an increase in rate of global warming?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000, 27(5):719-722.
27. Klein Tank A.M.G., Können G.P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-99. J. Climate 2003, 16:3665-3680.
28. Klein Tank A.M.G., Wijngaard J.B., Können G.P., Böhm R., Demarée G., Gocheva A., Mileta M., Pashiardis S., Hejkrlik L., Kern-Hansen C., Heino R., Bessemoulin P., Müller-Westermeier G., Tzanakou M., Szalai S., Pálsdóttir T., Fitzgerald D., Rubin S., Capaldo M., Maugeri M., Leitass A., Bukantis A., Aberfeld R., van Engelen A.F.V., Forland E., Mietus M., Coelho F., Mares C., Razuvaev V., Nieplova E., Cegnar T., Antonio López J., Dahlström B., Moberg A., Kirchhofer W., Ceylan A., Pachaliuk O., Alexander L.V., Petrovic P. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int. J. Climatol. 2002, 22:1441-1453. 10.1002/joc.773.
29. Klein Tank A.M.G., Zwiers F.W., Zhang X. Guideline on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. Climate Data and Monitoring WCDMP-No. 72, WMO-TD No. 1500, Geneva, Switzerland 2009.
30. Klok E.J., Klein Tank A.M.G. Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. Int. J. Climatol. 2009, 29:1182-1191. 10.1002/joc.1779.
31. Mediterranean climate variability. Developments in Earth and Environmental Sciences 2006, 4. Elsevier, The Netherlands. P. Lionello, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, R. Boscolo (Eds.).
32. Livezey R.E., Chen W.Y. Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Weather Rev. 1983, 111:46-59. 10.1175/1520-0493(1983) 111<0046:SFSAID>2.0.CO;2.
33. López-Moreno J.I., Vicente-Serrano S.M., Gimeno L., Nieto R. Stability of the seasonal distribution of precipitation in the Mediterranean region: observations since 1950 and projections for the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L10703. 10.1029/2009GL037956, 2009.
34. Manton M.J., Della-Marta P.M., Haylock M.R., Hennessy K.J., Nicholls N., Chambers L.E., Collins D.A., Daw G., Finet A., Gunawan D., Inape K., Isobe H., Kestin T.S., Lefale P., Leyu C.H., Lwin T., Maitrepierre L., Ouprasitwong N., Page C.M., Pahalad J., Plummer N., Salinger M.J., Suppiah R., Tran V.L., Trewin B., Tibig I., Yee D. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1916-1998. Int. J. Climatol. 2001, 21:269-284.
35. Miranda P.M.A., Tomé A.R. Spatial structure of the evolution of surface temperature (1951-2004). Clim. Chang. 2009, 93:269-284.
36. Miranda P., Coelho F.E.S., Tomé A.R., Valente M.A., Carvalho A., Pires C., Pires H.O., Pires V.C., Ramalho C. 20th century Portuguese climate and climate scenarios, impacts and adaptation measures. Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios 2002, 27-83. Gradiva, Lisbon, Portugal. F.D. Santos, K. Forbes, R. Moita (Eds.).
37. Miranda P.M.A., Valente M.A., Tomé A.R., Trigo R., Coelho F., Aguiar A., Azevedo E.B. O clima de Portugal nos séculos XX e XXI. Alterações climáticas em Portugal: Cenários, impactos e medidas de adaptação - Projecto SIAM II 2006, Gradiva, Lisboa, Portugal (in Portuguese). F.D. Santos, P. Miranda (Eds.).
38. Mosmann V., Castro A., Fraile R., Dessens J., Sánchez J.L. Detection of statistically significant trends in the summer precipitation of mainland Spain. Atmos. Res. 2004, 70(1):43-53.
39. Mourato S., Moreira M., Corte-Real J. Interannual variability of precipitation distribution patterns in Southern Portugal. Int. J. Climatol. 2010, 30:1784-1794. 10.1002/joc.2021.
40. Nastos P.T., Zerefos C.S. Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece. Atmos. Res. 2009, 94:616-628. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.03.009.
41. Paredes D., Trigo R.M., García-Herrera R., Trigo I.F. Understanding precipitation changes in Iberia in early spring: weather typing and storm-tracking approaches. J. Hydrometeorol. 2006, 7:101-113.
42. Peterson T.C., Folland C., Gruza G., Hogg W., Mokssit A., Plummer N. Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998-2001. Report WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland 2001, (WMO-TD No. 1071, 146 pp.).
43. Pettitt A.N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl. Stat. 1979, 28(2):126-135.
44. Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Santo F.E. Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal: recent changes and future scenarios. Clim. Res. 2011, 48:177-192. 10.3354/cr00934.
45. Ramos A.M., Ramos R., Sousa P., Trigo R.M., Janeira M., Prior Cloud to ground lightning activity over Portugal and its association with circulation weather types. Atmos. Res 2011, 101:84-101. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.014.
46. Rodrigo F.S., Trigo R.M. Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int. J. Climatol. 2007, 27:513-529.
47. Ruiz-Leo A.M., Hernández E., Queralt S., Maqueda G. Convective and stratiform precipitation trends in the Spanish Mediterranean coast. Atmos. Res. 2011, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.019.
48. Rusticucci M. Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America. Atmos. Res. 2011, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.11.001.
49. Sneyers R. On the statistical analysis of series of observations. Technical Note no. 143, WMO no. 145 1990, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
50. Sura P. A general perspective of extreme events in weather and climate. Atmos Res. 2011, 101(1-2):1-21. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.012.
51. Tomé A.R., Miranda P.M.A. Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31:L02207.
52. Tomé A.R., Miranda P.M.A. Continuous partial trends and low-frequency oscillations of time series. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 2005, 12(4):451-460.
53. Tomé A.R., Miranda P.M.A. Patterns in 100years of global warming (1910-2009). Proc. of the Global Conference on Global Warming 2011, 11-14 July, 2001, Lisbon, Portugal 2011, (5 pp.).
54. Trenberth K.E. Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Clim. Chang. 1999, 42:327-339.
55. Trenberth K.E., Dai A., Rasmussen R.M., Parsons D.B. The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2003, 84:1205-1217. 10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205.
56. Von Neumann J. Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance. Ann. Math. Stat. 1941, 12(4):367-395.
57. Wang X.L. Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean-shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2008, 47:2423-2444. 10.1175/2008JAMC1741.1.
58. Wang X.L., Feng Y. RHtestsV3 User Manual 2010, Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, [Available at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/RHtest/RHtestsV3_UserManual.doc] 27 pp.
59. Wang X.L., Wen Q.H., Wu Y. Penalized maximal t-test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2007, 46:916-931. 10.1175/JAM2504.1.
60. Wentz F.J., Ricciardulli L., Hilburn K., Mears C. How much more rain will global warming bring?. Science 2007, 317:233-235.
61. Wijngaard J.B., Klein Tank A.M.G., Können G.P. Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. Int. J. Climatol. 2003, 23:679-692. 10.1002/joc.906.
62. Xu X., Du Y., Tang J., Wang Y. Variations of temperature and precipitation extremes in recent two decades over China. Atmos. Res. 2011, 101:143-154. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.02.003.
63. Zhang X., Wang X.L., Corte-Real J. On the relationships between daily circulation patterns and precipitation in Portugal. J. Geophys. Res. 1997, 102(D12):13495-13507. 10.1029/97JD01012.
64. Zhang X., Zwiers F.W., Hegerl G.C., Lambert F.H., Gillett N.P., Solomon S., Stott P.A., Nozawa T. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 2007, 448:461-465. 10.1038/nature06025.