Is there a critical mass that would likely trigger the emergence of a pandemic avian influenza genotype?

Viral Genomes: Diversity, Properties and Parameters

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages 123-143

  Shoham, Dany ^a  

^a BAR ILAN UNIVERSITY   (Israel)

Author keywords

Abiotic perennial preservation; Acquired infectivity; Airborne transmissibility; Avian influenza; Epidemic genotype; Ice borne virus; Influenza type a virus; Pre pandemic critical mass; Viral phylogeography

Indexed keywords

EID: 84875959661     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (91)

1. Guan Y, Peiris JS, Lipatov AS, Ellis TM, Dyrting KC, Krauss S, Zhang LJ, Webster RG, Shortridge KF. Emergence of multiple genotypes of H5N1 avian influenza viruses in Hong Kong, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jun 25; 99(13): 8950-5. Epub 2002 Jun 19
2. Sims LD, Domenech J, Benigno C, Kahn S, Kamata A, Lubroth J, Martin V, Roeder P. Origin and evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia Vet Rec. 2005 Aug 6; 157(6): 159-64
3. Zitterkopf NL, Espy MR, et al. Duration of Influenza A Virus Shedding in Hospitalized Patients and Implications for Infection Control. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2007 Sep; 28(9)
4. Hatta M, Hatta Y, Kim JH, Watanabe S, Shinya K, et al. (2007) Growth of H5N1 Influenza A Viruses in the Upper Respiratory Tracts of Mice. PLoS Pathog 3(10): e133
5. Stavrinides J, Ma W, Guttman DS (2006) Terminal Reassortment Drives the Quantum Evolution of Type III Effectors in Bacterial Pathogens. PLoS Pathog 2(10): e104 doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.0020104
6. Mark E. J. Woolhouse, Joanne P. Webster, Esteban Domingo, Brian Charlesworth & Bruce R. Levin, Biological and biomedical implications of the co-evolution of pathogens and their hosts, Nature Genetics 32, 569-577 (2002)
7. Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Taylor J, et al. (2006) Stochastic Processes Are Key Determinants of Short-Term Evolution in Influenza A Virus. PLoS Pathog 2(12): e125 doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.0020125
8. Kuiken T, Holmes EC, McCauley J, Rimmelzwaan GF, Williams CS, Grenfell BT Host species barriers to influenza virus infections. Science 2006 Apr 21; 312(5772): 394-7.
9. Aravind Srinivasan, Karthik Viswanathan, Rahul Raman, Aarthi Chandrasekaran, S. Raguram, Terrence M. Tumpey, V. Sasisekharan, and Ram Sasisekharan Quantitative biochemical rationale for differences in transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza A viruses, 2/26/08 PNAS ONLINE
10. Tumpey TM, Maines TR, Van Hoeven N, et al. A Two-Amino Acid Change in the Hemagglutinin of the 1918 A Influenza Virus Abolishes Transmission. Science February 2, 2007; 315(5812): 655-659 2007
11. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan edition
12. Belshe, RB. The origins of pandemic influenza--lessons from the 1918 virus. N Engl J Med. 2005; 353: 2209-11.
13. Ann H. Reid and Jeffery K. Taubenberger, The origin of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus: a continuing enigma, J Gen Virol 84 (2003), 2285-2292
14. Shoham, D., Review: Molecular evolution and the feasibility of an avian influenza virus becoming a pandemic strain-a conceptual shift, Virus Genes, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 127-132, 2006
15. H5N1 Swine Evolution via Recombination and reassortment in China, Recombinomics Commentary, October 19, 2006
16. Young Ki Choi et al., Studies of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection of Pigs by Using Viruses Isolated in Vietnam and Thailand in 2004, J Virol. 2005 August; 79(16): 10821-10825
17. Aarthi Chandrasekaran et al., Glycan topology determines human adaptation of avian H5N1 virus hemagglutinin, Nature Biotechnology, Published online: 6 January 2008 | doi: 10.1038/nbt1375
18. Nelson MI, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Bennett RT, Griesemer SB, et al. (2008) Multiple Reassortment Events in the Evolutionary History of H1N1 Influenza A Virus Since 1918. PLoS Pathog 4(2): e1000012. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000012
19. Anchlan D, Ludwig S, Nymadawa P, Mendsaikhan J, Scholtissek C, Previous H1N1 influenza A viruses circulating in the Mongolian population, Arch Virol. 1996; 141(8): 1553-69.
20. Iamnikova SS, Nimadava P, Petrov NA, Vasilenko SK, Iakhno MA, Semenova NP, L'vov DK, The characteristics of influenza A/H1N1 viruses related to A/PR/8/34 isolated in the Mongolian People's Republic, Vopr Virusol. 1991 May-Jun; 36(3): 188-91.
21. Shoham, D., Biotic-abiotic mechanisms for long-term preservation and reemergence of influenza type A virus genes, Progress in Medical Virology, vol. 40, pp. 178-192, 1993.
22. Zhang G., Shoham D., Gilichinsky D., Davydov S., Castello J.D., Rogers S.O., Evidence for influenza A virus RNA in Siberian lake ice, J Virol., vol. 80, no. 24, pp. 12229-12235, 2006
23. Martin Goldfield et al, Influenza in New Jersey in 1976: isolations of influenza A/New Jersey/76 at Fort Dix, J Infec Dis, vol 136 Supplement, pp. S347-S355, 1977
24. Gaydos JC, Top FH, Hodder RA, Russell PK. Swine influenza A outbreak, Fort Dix, New Jersey, 1976. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2006 Jan [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0965.htm.
25. Fouchier R.A. et al., Avian influenza A virus (H7N7) associated with human conjunctivitis and a fatal case of acute respiratory distress syndrome Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 101, 1356-1361, 2004.
26. Dennis Normile, Human transmission but no pandemic in Indonesia, Science, 30 June 2006: Vol. 312. no. 5782, p. 1855
27. Gilsdorf A et al, Two clusters of human infection with influenza A/H5N1 virus in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Euro Surveill. 2006; 11(5): 122-6
28. Neil M. Ferguson Christophe Fraser, Christl A. Donnelly, Azra C. Ghani, Roy M. Anderson, Public Health Risk from the Avian H5N1 Influenza Epidemic, Science, 14 May 2004: Vol. 304. no. 5673, pp. 968-969
29. Buxton Bridges C, Katz JM, Seto WH, et al. Risk of influenza A (H5N1) infection among health care workers exposed to patients with influenza A (H5N1), Hong Kong. J Infect Dis 2000; 181: 344 8
30. Raymond Tellier, Review of Aerosol Transmission of Influenza A Virus Emerging Ifec. Dis. Volume 12, Number 11-November 2006
31. Jeffrey J. Stewart, Parameters of Influenza Aerosol Transmission, Comments on Theoretical Biology, Volume 7, Issue 6 November 2002, pages 445-457
32. Neil M. Ferguson Christophe Fraser, Christl A. Donnelly, Azra C. Ghani, Roy M. Anderson, Public Health Risk from the Avian H5N1 Influenza Epidemic, Science, 14 May 2004: Vol. 304. no. 5673, pp. 968-969
33. Yang, Yang; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Sugimoto, Jonathan D.; Longini, Ira M., Jr., Detecting human-to-human transmission of avian influenza a (H5N1). Emer. Infec. Dis.,(September1, 2007) www.thefreelibrary.com/Emerging+Infectious+Diseases/2007/September/1-p5123
34. Indonesia MOH Daily Report, 3 Sep. 2007, crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2007/indonesia-healt.html
35. Hua Wang and Zijian Feng, Probable limited person-to-person transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in China, The Lancet Early Online Publication, 8 April 2008. The Lancet DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60493-6
36. Atypical H5N1 [Archive]-FluTrackers[Archive] Atypical H5N1 Surveillance and Epidemic Control. www.flutrackers.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-10440.html-33k-SupplementalResult-Cached-Similarpages
37. de Jong MD et al. Fatal outcome of human influenza A (H5N1) is associated with high viral load and hypercytokinemia. Nat Med. 2006 Oct; 12(10): 1203-7. Epub 2006 Sep 10
38. Laura Campitelli, Massimo Ciccozzi, Marco Salemi, Fabiana Taglia, Stefano Boros, Isabella Donatelli and Giovanni Rezza1, H5N1 influenza virus evolution: a comparison of different epidemics in birds and humans (1997-2004) J Gen Virol 87 (2006), 955-960; DOI 10.1099/vir.0.81397-0
39. Folorunso O Fasina, Shahn P Bisschop, Robert G Webster, Avian influenza H5N1 in Africa: an epidemiological twist, Lancet Infect Dis. 2007 Nov; 7 (11): 696-697 17961853.
40. D. J. Hulse-Post, K. M. Sturm-Ramirez, J. Humberd, P. Seiler, E. A. Govorkova, S. Krauss, C. Scholtissek, P. Puthavathana, C. Buranathai, T. D. Nguyen, H. T. Long, T. S. P. Naipospos, H. Chen, T. M. Ellis, Y. Guan, J. S. M. Peiris, and R. G. Webster, Role of domestic ducks in the propagation and biological evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses in Asia, PNAS July 26, 2005 vol. 102 no. 30 10682-10687
41. M. Liu, Y. Guan, M. Peiris, S. He, R. J. Webby, D. Perez, and R. G. Webster, The Quest of Influenza A Viruses for New Hosts, Avian Diseases, Volume 47, Issue s3, September 2003
42. Yamada S, Suzuki Y, Suzuki T, et al. Haemagglutinin mutations responsible for the binding of H5N1 influenza A viruses to human-type receptors. Nature 2006; 444: 378-382
43. Polozov IV, Bezrukov L, Gawrisch K, Zimmerberg J, Progressive ordering with decreasing temperature of the phospholipids of influenza virus, Nature-Chem Biol. 2008 Apr; 4(4): 248-55.
44. Elder AG, O'Donnell B, McCruden EAB, Symington IS, Carman WF. Incidence and recall of influenza in a cohort of Glasgow healthcare workers during the 1993-4 epidemic: results of serum testing and questionnaire. BMJ 1996; 313: 1241-2.
45. World Health Organization. WHO inter-country-consultation: influenza A/H5N1 in humans in Asia: Manila, Philippines, 6-7 May 2005. (Accessed September 2, 2005, at http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_ 7/en/.)
46. Buxton Bridges C, Katz JM, Seto WH, et al. Risk of influenza A (H5N1) infection among health care workers exposed to patients with influenza A (H5N1), Hong Kong. J Infect Dis 2000; 181: 344 8
47. Beare AS, Webster RG. Replication of avian influenza viruses in humans. Arch Virol. 1991; 119(1-2): 37-42.
48. Announcement made by the Russian Department of Rosselkhoznadzor (Russian agriculture watchdog), Itar-Tass, May 23, 2007
49. Brown JD, Stallknecht DE, Beck JR, Suarez DL, Swayne DE, Susceptibility of North American ducks and gulls to H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Nov; 12(11): 1663-70
50. M J Pantin-Jackwood, D L Suarez, E Spackman, D E Swayne, Age at infection affects the pathogenicity of Asian highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses in ducks. Virus Res. 2007, Jul 19; [Epub ahead of print] [My paper]
51. D. J. Hulse-Post, K. M. Sturm-Ramirez, J. Humberd, P. Seiler, E. A. Govorkova, S. Krauss, C. Scholtissek, P. Puthavathana, C. Buranathai, T. D. Nguyen, H. T. Long, T. S. P. Naipospos, H. Chen, T. M. Ellis, Y. Guan, J. S. M. Peiris, and R. G. Webster, Role of domestic ducks in the propagation and biological evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses in Asia, PNAS July 26, 2005 vol. 102 no. 30, 10682-10687
52. Gilbert M, Chaitaweesub P, Parakamawongsa T, Premashthira S, Tiensin T, Kalpravidh W, Wagner H, Slingenbergh J. Free-grazing ducks and highly pathogenic avian influenza, Thailand. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Feb; 12(2): 227-34
53. Bird Flu Spreads, Takes New Pattern, Korea Times, 14 April 2008
54. M. Liu, Y. Guan, M. Peiris, S. He, R. J. Webby, D. Perez, and R. G. Webster, The Quest of Influenza A Viruses for New Hosts, Avian Diseases Volume 47, Issue s3 (September 2003)
55. Songserm T, Jam-On R, Sae-Heng N, et al. Domestic ducks and H5N1 influenza epidemic, Thailand. Emerg Infect Dis 2006; 12: 575-581.
56. Sturm-Ramirez KM, Hulse-Post DJ, Govorkova EA, et al. Are ducks contributing to the endemicity of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in Asia? J Virol 2005; 79: 11269-79.
57. Lee Y-J, Choi Y-K, Kim Y-J, Song M-S, Jeong O-M, Lee E-K, et al. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) in domestic poultry and relationship with migratory birds, South Korea. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2008 Mar [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/14/3/487.htm
58. Marius Gilbert, Xiangming Xiao, Joseph Domenech, Juan Lubroth, Vincent Martin, and Jan Slingenbergh, Anatidae Migration in the Western Palearctic and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 12, Number 11-November 2006
59. Shoham, D. and Rogers, O.S., Greenland as a plausible springboard for trans-Atlantic avian influenza spread; Medical Hypotheses, vol. 67, no. 6, pp. 1460-1461, 2006
60. Parmley EJ, Bastien N, Booth TF, Bowes V, Buck PA, Breault A, et al. Wild bird influenza survey, Canada, 2005. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2008 Jan [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/14/1/84.htm
61. Hatchette TF, Walker D, Johnson C, Baker A, Pryor SP, Webster RG. Influenza A viruses in feral Canadian ducks: extensive reassortment in nature. J Gen Virol 2004; 85: 2327 37
62. Justin D. Brown, David E. Stallknecht, and David E. Swayneâ Infection of Swans and Geese with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1) of Asian Lineage 12/27/07 CDC Emerging Infectious Diseases
63. Kunitoshi Imai, Yu Yamamoto et al, Pathology of Specific-Pathogen-Free Chickens Inoculated with H5N1 Avian Influenza Viruses Isolated in Japan in 2004 Avian Diseases: Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 8-13, 2008.
64. Yamamoto Y, Nakamura K, Okamatsu M, Yamada M, Mase M. Avian influenza virus (H5N1) replication in feathers of domestic waterfowl. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2008 Jan [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/14/1/149.htm
65. Shoham, D., Biotic-abiotic mechanisms for long-term preservation and reemergence of influenza type A virus genes, Progress in Medical Virology, vol. 40, pp. 178-192, 1993.
66. Chin P.S., Hoffmann E., Webby R., Webster R.G., Guan Y., Peiris M., and Shortridge K.F., J Molecular Evolution of H6 Influenza Viruses from Poultry in Southeastern China: Prevalence of H6N1 Influenza Viruses Possessing Seven A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1)-Like Genes in Poultry J Virol 76, 507-516, 2002.
67. Evolution of H5N1 Avian Influenza Viruses in Asia, The World Health Organization Global Influenza Program Surveillance Network. Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 11, Number 10, October 2005: 1515-21
68. Cauthen AN, Swayne DE, Schultz-Cherry S, Perdue ML, Suarez DL Continued circulation in China of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses encoding the hemagglutinin gene associated with the 1997 H5N1 outbreak in poultry and humans. J Virol. 2000 Jul; 74(14): 6592-9.
69. Okazaki K, Takada A, Ito T, Imai M, Takakuwa H, Hatta M et al. Precursor genes of future pandemic influenza viruses are perpetuated in ducks nesting in Siberia, Arch Virol 145, 885-893, 2000
70. Evolution of H5N1 Avian Influenza Viruses in Asia The World Health Organization Global Influenza Program Surveillance Network, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 11, Number 10, October 2005: 1515-21
71. Li KS, Guan Y, Wang J, Smith GJ, Xu KM, Duan L, Rahardjo AP, Puthavathana P, Buranathai C, Nguyen TD, Estoepangestie AT, Chaisingh A, Auewarakul P, Long HT, Hanh NT, Webby RJ, Poon LL, Chen H, Shortridge KF, Yuen KY, Webster RG, Peiris JS Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature. 2004 Jul 8; 430(6996): 209-13.
72. H. Chen, G. Deng, Z. Li, G. Tian, Y. Li, P. Jiao, L. Zhang, Z. Liu, R. G. Webster, and K. Yu The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Jul 13; 101(28): 10452-7
73. Li Y, Lin Z, Shi J, Qi Q, Deng G, Li Z, Wang X, Tian G, Chen H Detection of Hong Kong 97-like H5N1 influenza viruses from eggs of Vietnamese waterfowl, Arch Virol. 2006 Aug; 151(8): 1615-24.
74. Rubing Chen and Edward C. Holmes Avian Influenza Virus Exhibits Rapid Evolutionary Dynamics, Molecular Biology and Evolution 2006 23(12): 2336-2341;
75. Shoham, D., Biotic-abiotic mechanisms for long-term preservation and reemergence of influenza type A virus genes, Progress in Medical Virology, vol. 40, pp. 178-192, 1993
76. Shoham, D., Viral Pathogens of Humans Likely to Be Preserved in Natural Ice, in: Life in Ancient Ice (ed. John D. Castello and Scott O. Rogers), Princeton University Press, pp. 208-226, 2005.
77. Zhang G., Shoham D., Gilichinsky D., Davydov S., Castello J.D., Rogers S.O., Evidence for influenza A virus RNA in Siberian lake ice, J Virol., vol. 80, no. 24, pp. 12229-12235, 2006
78. Shortridge KF, Stuart-Harris CH, An influenza epicentre? Lancet. 1982 Oct 9; 2(8302): 812-813
79. Robert G. Wallace, Hoang Minh HoDac, Richard H. Lathrop, and Walter M. Fitch A statistical phylogeography of influenza A H5N1, PNAS published online Mar 7, 2007
80. Shoham D, Viral Pathogens of Humans Likely to Be Preserved in Natural Ice, in: Life in Ancient Ice, (ed. John D. Castello and Scott O. Rogers), Princeton University Press, pp. 208-226, 2005
81. Robert G. Wallace, Walter M. Fitch, Wallace RG, Fitch WM (2008) Influenza A H5N1 Immigration Is Filtered Out at Some International Borders. PLoS ONE 3(2): e1697.
82. Q Mai Le Maki Kiso, Kazuhiko Someya et al, Avian flu: isolation of drug-resistant H5N1 virus. Nature. 2005 Oct 20; 437 (7062): 1108 16228009
83. He G, Qiao J, Dong C, He C, Zhao L, Tian Y. Amantadine-resistance among H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated in Northern China. Antiviral Res. 2007 Sep 12
84. Chen L-M, Davis CT, Zhou H, Cox NJ, Donis RO (2008) Genetic Compatibility and Virulence of Reassortants Derived from Contemporary Avian H5N1 and Human H3N2 Influenza A Viruses. PLoS Pathog 4(5): e1000072. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000072
85. Sandbulte MR, Jimenez GS, Boon ACM, Smith LR, Treanor JJ, et al. (2007) Cross-Reactive Neuraminidase Antibodies Afford Partial Protection against H5N1 in Mice and Are Present in Unexposed Humans. PLoS Med 4(2): e59
86. Ichinohe T, Tamura S, Kawaguchi A, Ninomiya A, Imai M, Itamura S, Odagiri T, Tashiro M, Takahashi H, Sawa H, Mitchell WM, Strayer DR, Carter WA, Chiba J, Kurata T, Sata T, Hasegawa H., Cross-Protection against H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection Is Afforded by Intranasal Inoculation with Seasonal Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine, J. Infec. Dis. Volume 196(2007), pages 1313-1320
87. Hargreaves S, Uncertainties remain over pre-pandemic flu vaccine benefits, Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2007 Nov; 7(11): 705.
88. Timm C. Harder and Ortrud Werner, Avian Influenza, in: Influenza Report 2006, Bernd Sebastian Kamps, Christian Hoffmann, and Wolfgang Preiser (Editors) www.influenza.com/ir/ai.htm
89. H1N2, From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N2, 2007
90. WHO Weekly Epidemiological Records, 7 May 2004
91. Maurice R. Hilleman, Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control, Vaccine 20 (2002) 3068-3087.