System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa

Journal of Environmental Management

Volumn 120, Issue , 2013, Pages 138-147

  Crookes, D J ^a   Blignaut, J N ^b   de Wit, M P ^a   Esler, K J ^a   Le Maitre, D C ^c   Milton, S J ^d   Mitchell, S A ^e   Cloete, J ^e   de Abreu, P ^f   Fourie, H ^g   Gull, K ^f   Marx, D ^f   Mugido, W ^a   Ndhlovu, T ^a   Nowell, M ^a   Pauw, M ^a   Rebelo, A ^a  

^a STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA   (South Africa)

^c DSI CSIR Nanotechnology Innovation Centre   (South Africa)

^d NELSON MANDELA METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^e UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE   (South Africa)

^f UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^g WESTERN CAPE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Portfolio mapping; Restoration; Risk analysis; System dynamics; Water

Indexed keywords

COMMERCE; ECOLOGY; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; MAPPING; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SYSTEM THEORY;

CONDITION; ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION; ECONOMIC RISKS; ECONOMIC VIABILITY; ECONOMICS EVALUATIONS; PORTFOLIO MAPPING; RISK TRADE-OFFS; SOUTH AFRICA; SYSTEM DYNAMICS; SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING;

RESTORATION;

GROUND WATER;

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION; RESTORATION ECOLOGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; TRADE-OFF;

ARTICLE; CHOLERA; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; DYNAMICS; ECOSYSTEM; ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; LAND USE; MARKETING; METHODOLOGY; MONTE CARLO METHOD; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SOUTH AFRICA; WATER FLOW; WATER QUALITY;

SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 84875625577     PISSN: 03014797     EISSN: 10958630     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.02.001     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Aronson J., Clewell A.F., Blignaut J.N., Milton S.J. Ecological restoration: a new frontier for nature conservation and economics. J. Nat. Conserv. 2006, 14:135-139.
2. Restoring Natural Capital: Business, Science, and Practice 2007, 3-8. Island Press, Washington D.C. J. Aronson, S.J. Milton, J.N. Blignaut (Eds.).
3. Aronson J., Milton S.J., Blignaut J.N. Restoring natural capital: definitions and rationale. Restoring Natural Capital: Business, Science, and Practice 2007, 3-8. Island Press, Washington D.C. J. Aronson, S.J. Milton, J.N. Blignaut (Eds.).
4. Arquitt S., Johnstone R. Use of system dynamics modelling in design of an environmental restoration banking institution. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 65:63-75.
5. Aven T. Foundations of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision-oriented Perspective 2003, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
6. Bendor T. A dynamic analysis of the wetland mitigation process and its effects on no net loss policy. Landscape Urban Plan. 2009, 89:17-27.
7. Blignaut J., Aronson J., Mander M., Marais C. Investing in natural capital and economic development: South Africa's Drakensberg Mountains. Ecol. Restor. 2008, 26(2):143-150.
8. Blignaut J., Mander M., Schulze R., Horan M., Dickens C., Pringle K., Mavundla K., Mahlangu I., Wilson A., McKenzie M., McKean S. Restoring and managing natural capital towards fostering economic development: evidence from the Drakensberg, South Africa. Ecol. Econ. 2010, 69:1313-1323.
9. Determining the Economic Risk/return Parameters for Developing a Market for Ecosystem Goods and Services Following the Restoration of Natural Capital: A System Dynamics Approach 2012, Water Research Commission and ASSET Research, Pretoria. J. Blignaut, M. de Wit, S. Milton, K.J. Esler, D. Le Maitre, S. Mitchell, D. Crookes (Eds.).
10. Brauman K.A., Daily G.C., Duarte T.K., Mooney H.A. The nature and value of ecosystem services: an overview highlighting hydrological services. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2007, 32:6.1-6.32.
11. Bullock J.M., Aronson J., Newton A.C., Pywell R.F., Rey-Benayas J.M. Restoration of ecosystem services and biodiversity: conflicts and opportunities. TREE 2011, 26(10):541-549.
12. Cooper R.G. Portfolio management for product innovation. Project Portfolio Management. A Practical Guide to Selecting Projects, Managing Portfolios, and Maximising Benefits 2005, 318-355. John Wiley & Sons, San Francisco. H.A. Levine (Ed.).
13. Cooper R.G., Edgett S.J., Kleinschmidt E.J. Portfolio management in new product development: lessons from the leaders-I. Res. Techol. Manage. 1997, 40(5):16-28.
14. Cooper R., Edgett S., Kleinschmidt E. Portfolio management for new product development: results of an industry practices study. R&D Manage. 2001, 31(4):361-380.
15. Crookes D.J. The contribution of livelihood activities in the Limpopo province: case study evidence from Makua and Manganeng. Dev. South. Af. 2003, 20(1):143-159.
16. Crookes, D.J., 2012. Modelling the ecological-economic impacts of restoring natural capital, with a special focus on water and agriculture, at eight sites in South Africa. Ph.D dissertation, Stellenbosch University.
17. Dawadi S., Ahmad S. Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population. J. Environ. Manag. 2013, 114:261-275.
18. De Koning F., Aguiñaga M., Bravo M., Chiu M., Lascano M., Lozada T., Suarez L. Bridging the gap between forest conservation and poverty alleviation: the Ecuadorian Socio Bosque program. Environ. Sci. Pol. 2011, 14:531-542.
19. De Wit M., van Zyl H., Crookes D., Blignaut J., Jayiya T., Goiset V., Mahumani B. Including the economic value of well-functioning urban ecosystems in financial decisions: evidence from a process in Cape Town. Ecosys. Serv. 2012, 2:38-44.
20. Downs P.W., Thorne C.R. Rehabilitation of a lowland river: reconciling flood defence with habitat diversity and geomorphological sustainability. J. Environ. Manag. 2000, 58:249-268.
21. Figueroa E.B. Restoring natural capital: a mainstream economic perspective. Restoring Natural Capital 2007, 28-35. business, science, and practice. Island Press, Washington D.C. J. Aronson, S.J. Milton, J.N. Blignaut (Eds.).
22. Fleming G., van der Merwe M., McFerren G. Fuzzy expert systems and GIS for cholera health risk prediction in southern Africa. Environ. Model. Software 2007, 22:442-448.
23. Fourie (nee Vlok) H. CBA Spreadsheets, Email to D. Crookes 2011, [Online], 7 February. Available email:. mailto:d_crookes@hotmail.com.
24. Hertz D.B., Thomas H. Risk Analysis and Its Applications 1983, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
25. Higgins S.I., Turpie J.K., Costanza R., Cowling R.M., Le Maitre D.C., Marais C., Midgley G.F. An ecological economic simulation model of mountain fynbos ecosystems: dynamics, valuation and management. Ecol. Econ. 1997, 22:155-169.
26. Hoffman, T., Todd, S., Ntshona Z., Turner S. (Eds.), 2000. A National Review of Land Degradation in South Africa, Unpublished Report. South African National Biodiversity Institute, Pretoria. Online at: (accessed: 14.11.12). http://www.nbi.ac.za/landdeg.
27. Holl K.D. Long-term vegetation recovery on reclaimed coal surface mines in the eastern USA. J. Appl. Ecol. 2002, 39:960-970.
28. Holmes P.M., Richardson D.M., Marais C. Costs and benefits of restoring natural capital following alien plant invasions in Fynbos ecosystems in South Africa. Restoring Natural Capital: Business, Science, and Practice 2007, 188-197. Island Press, Washington D.C. J. Aronson, S.J. Milton, J.N. Blignaut (Eds.).
29. Jogo W., Hassan R. Balancing the use of wetlands for economic well-being and ecological security: the case of the Limpopo wetland in southern Africa. Ecol. Econ. 2010, 69:1569-1579.
30. Keloharju R., Wolstenholme E.F. A case study in system dynamics optimization. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 1989, 40(3):221-230.
31. Liu Y., Guo H., Yu Y., Dai Y., Zhou F. Ecological-economic modeling as a tool for watershed management: a case study of Lake Qionghai watershed, China. Limnologica 2008, 38:89-104.
32. Maler K.-G. Development, ecological resources and their management: a study of complex, dynamic systems. Eur. Econ. Rev. 2000, 44(4-6):645-665.
33. Mander M., Blignaut J., van Niekerk M., Cowling R., Horan M., Knoesen D., Mills A., Powell M., Schulze R. Baviaanskloof-tsitsikamma Payment for Ecosystem Services: A Feasibility Assessment - Synthesis Report 2010, South Africa National Biodiversity Institute/Working for Water, Online at:. http://www.capeaction.org.za/index.php%3fC%3dbio%26P%3d2001.
34. Matheson J.E., Menke M.M. Using decision quality principles to balance your R&D portfolio. Res. Tech. Manag. 1994, 37(3):38-43.
35. Matheson J.E., Menke M.M., Derby S.L. Improving the quality of R&D decision: a synopsis of the SDG approach. J. Sci. Pol. Res. Manag. Iin Japanese) 1989, 4:400-412.
36. Mills A.J., Turpie J.K., Cowling R.M., Marais C., Kerley G.I.H., Lechmere-Oertel R.G., Sigwela A.M., Powell M. Assessing costs, benefits, and feasibility of restoring natural capital in subtropical thicket in South Africa. Restoring Natural Capital: Business, Science, and Practice 2007, 179-187. Island Press, Washington D.C. J. Aronson, S.J. Milton, J.N. Blignaut (Eds.).
37. Milton S.J., Dean R.J., Richardson D.M. Economic incentives for restoring natural capital in southern African rangelands. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2003, 1(5):247-254.
38. Moreno-de las Heras M., Nicolau J.M., Espigares T. Vegetation succession in reclaimed coal-mining slopes in a Mediterranean-dry environment. Ecol. Eng. 2008, 34:168-178.
39. Mullins D., Mosaka D.D., Green A.B., Downing R., Mapekula P.G. A Manual for Cost Benefit Analysis in South Africa with Specific Reference to Water Resource Development 2007, Water Research Commission, Pretoria, Report No. TT 305/07. Second ed.
40. Navraj P., Providoli I., Bimal R., Gandhiv K. Valuing water and its ecological services in rural landscapes: a case study from Nepal. Mountain Forum Bull. 2010, 32-34. Available online:, (accessed: 14.11.12). http://www.forestrynepal.org/images/publications/pes_article_mountainforum_forcirculation.pdf.
41. Ndhlovu, T. 2011. Impact of Prosopis (mesquite) invasion and clearing on ecosystem structure, function and agricultural productivity in semi-arid Nama Karoo rangeland, South Africa. M.Sc. Thesis, University of Stellenbosch.
42. Ndhlovu T., Milton S.J., Esler K.J. Impact of Prosopis (mesquite) invasion and clearing on the grazing capacity of degraded semi-arid Nama Karoo rangeland, South Africa. Afr. J. Range For. Sci. 2011, 28(3):129-137.
43. Nobre A.M., Musango J.K., De Wit M.P., Ferreira J.G. A dynamic ecological-economic modelling approach for aquaculture management. Ecol. Econ. 2009, 68:3007-3017.
44. Rees W.E., Farley J., Vesely É.-T., de Groot R. Valuing natural capital and the costs and benefits of restoration. Restoring Natural Capital: Business, Science, and Practice 2007, 227-236. Island Press, Washington D.C. J. Aronson, S.J. Milton, J.N. Blignaut (Eds.).
45. Rose R. Personal Communication 2009, Geohydrological and Spatial Solutions International (Pty) Ltd, Stellenbosch, November.
46. Schiappacasse I., Nahuelhual L., Vásquez F., Echeverría C. Assessing the benefits and costs of dryland forest restoration in central Chile. J. Environ. Manag. 2012, 97:38-45.
47. Tischew S., Baasch A., Conrad M., Kirmer A. Evaluating restoration success of frequently implemented compensation measures: results, and demands for control procedures. Restor. Ecol. 2010, 18:467-480.
48. Turpie J.K., Marais C., Blignaut J.N. The Working for Water Programme: evolution of a payments for ecosystem services mechanism that addresses both poverty and ecosystem service delivery in South Africa. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 65:789-799.
49. Turpie J.K., Clark B.M., Cowley P., Bornman T., Terörde A. Integrated Ecological-economic Modelling as an Estuarine Management Tool: A Case Study of the East Kleinemonde Estuary. Model Construction, Evaluation and User Manual 2008, vol. II. WRC Report No. 1679/2/08. Pretoria.
50. Van der Horst D. Adoption of payments for ecosystem services: an application of the Hägerstrand model. Appl. Geogr. 2011, 31:668-676.
51. Van Groenendaal W.J.H., Kleijnen J.P.C. Deterministic versus stochastic sensitivity analysis in investment problems: an environmental case study. Eur. J. Operations Res. 2002, 141:8-20.
52. Vandaele, N.J., Decouttere, C.J. Sustainable R&D Portfolio Assessment. Decision Support Systems, in press.
53. Ventana Systems Vensim User's Guide Version 5 2007, Ventana Systems, Inc, Boston, MA.
54. Vlok, H., 2010. Cost-benefit analyses of alien removal and natural capital restoration: case studies of the Agulhas Plain and Beaufort West local municipality. Unpublished Report, University of Stellenbosch and Western Cape Department of Agriculture.
55. Wise R.M., Cacho O.J. Tree-crop interactions and their environmental and economic implications in the presence of carbon-sequestration payments. Environ. Model. Software 2005, 20:1139-1148.
56. Wu J., David J.L. A spatially explicit hierarchical approach to modeling complex ecological systems: theory and applications. Ecol. Model. 2002, 153(1):7-26.
57. Wysocki R.K. Effective Project Management: Traditional, Agile, Extreme 2009, Wiley Publishing, Indianapolis, IN. fifth ed.
58. Yoe C.E., Burks-Copes K., Schultz M.T., Suedel B.C. Addressing Risk and Uncertainty in Planning Ecological Restoration Projects 2009, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, EMRRP Technical Notes Collection. ERDC TN EMRRP-ER-13, (accessed: 14.11.12). http://el.erdc.usace.army.mil/emrrp/emrrp.html.