Using correlative, mechanistic and hybrid niche models to predict the productivity and impact of global climate change on maize crop in Brazil

Natureza a Conservacao

Volumn 10, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 177-183

  Nabout, João Carlos ^a   Caetano, Jordana Moura ^a   Ferreira, Rafael Batista ^a   Teixeira, Itamar Rosa ^a   Alves, Sueli Martins de Freitas ^a  

^a UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE GOIÁS   (Brazil)

Author keywords

Ecological niche model; Maxent; Plantgro model; Zea mays

Indexed keywords

EID: 84875201349     PISSN: 16790073     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4322/natcon.2012.034     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Araújo MB & Peterson AT, 2012. Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modelling. Ecology, 93:1527-1539. PMid:22919900. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-1930.1
2. Araújo MB & New M, 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22:42-47. PMid:17011070. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010
3. Assad ED et al., 2008. Aquecimento Global e a Nova Geografia da produção Agrícola no Brasil. Brasília: Embaixada Britânica. PMCid:2646102.
4. Beck J, 2012. Predicting climate change effects on agriculture from ecological niche modeling: who profits, who loses? Climate Change. In press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0481-x
5. Box GEP, 1979. Some problems of statistics and everyday life. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74:1-4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481600
6. Buckley LB et al., 2010. Can mechanism inform species' distribution models? Ecology Letters, 13:1041-1054. PMid:20482574.
7. Buckley LB et al., 2011. Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change? Ecology, 92:2214-2221. PMid:22352161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-0066.1
8. Connor DJ et al., 2011. Crop ecology: productivity and management in agricultural systems. Cambridge University Press.
9. Diniz-Filho JAF et al., 2009. Niche modelling and landscape genetics of Caryocar brasiliensis (Pequi tree: Caryocaraceae) in Brazilian Cerrado: an integrative approach for evaluating central-peripheral population patterns. Tree Genetics & Genomes, 5:617-627. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11295-009-0214-0
10. Diniz-Filho JAF et al., 2010. Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera: Acridoidea: Romaleidae). Insect Conservation and Diversity, 3:213-221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4598.2010.00090.x
11. Elith J, Kearney M & Phillips S, 2010. The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology Evolution, 1:330-342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x
12. Franklin J, 2009. Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
13. Hackett C & Vanclay JK, 1998. Mobilizing expert knowledge of tree growth with the PLANTGRO and INFER systems. Ecological Modelling, 106:233-246. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(97)00185-3
14. Hijmans RJ & Graham CH, 2006. The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12:2272-2281. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01256.x
15. Hijmans RJ et al., 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25:1965-1978. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276
16. Jarvis A, Lane A & Hijmans RJ, 2008. The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 126:13-23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.013
17. Kearney M & Porter W, 2009. Mechanistic niche modeling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecology Letters, 12:334-350. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x
18. Lane A & Jarvis A, 2007. Changes in climate will modify the geography of crop suitability: agricultural biodiversity can help with adaptation. Journal of the Semi-Arid Tropics, 4:1-12.
19. Nabout JC et al., 2011.Global ClimateChangeandtheProductionof "Pequi" Fruits (Caryocar brasiliense) in the Brazilian Cerrado. Natureza & Conservação, 9:55-60. http://dx.doi.org/10.4322/natcon.2011.006
20. Nemésio A et al., 2012. Searching for Euglossa cyanochlora Moure, 1996 (Hymenoptera: Apidae), one of the rarest bees in the world. Journal of Insect Conservation, 16:745-755. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10841-012-9459-2
21. Pavão AR & Ferreira Filho JBS, 2011. Impactos econômicos da introdução do milho Bt11 no Brasil: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral inter-regional. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 49: 81-108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-20032011000100004
22. Peterson AT et al., 2011. Ecological niches and geographic distributions. Princeton: Princeton University Press. p. 314.
23. Phillips SJ et al., 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modeling, 190:231-259. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
24. Rangel TF et al., 2010. SAM: a comprehensive application for Spatial Analysis in Macroecology. Ecography, 31:46-50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.06299.x
25. Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A & Läderach P. 2011. Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study withgrain sorghum. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. In press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.005
26. Thuiller W et al., 2010. Variation in habitat suitability does not always relate to variation in species' plant functional traits. Biology Letters, 23:120-123. PMid:19793738. PMCid:2817270. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2009.0669
27. Tôrres NM et al., 2012. Can species distribution modelling provide estimates of population densities? A case study with jaguars in the Neotropics. Diversity and Distributions, 18:615-627. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00892.x
28. Ureta C et al., 2012. Projecting the effects of climate change on the distribution of maize races and their wild relatives in Mexico. Global Change Biology, 18:1073-1082. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02607.x
29. Zhu G et al., 2012. Potential Geographic Distribution of Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Invasion (Halyomorpha halys). PLoS ONE, 7(2):e31246. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031246