메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 28, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 212-228

A WRF ensemble for improved wind speed forecasts at turbine height

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BOUNDARY LAYERS; HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINE; SPEED; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND EFFECTS; WIND POWER;

EID: 84874911316     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00112.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (82)

References (48)
  • 1
    • 0035251745 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple temporal and spatial analysis of flow in complex terrain in the context of wind energy modeling
    • Ayotte, K. W., R. J. Davy, and P. A. Coppin, 2001: A simple temporal and spatial analysis of flow in complex terrain in the context of wind energy modeling. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 98, 275-295.
    • (2001) Bound. -Layer Meteor. , vol.98 , pp. 275-295
    • Ayotte, K.W.1    Davy, R.J.2    Coppin, P.A.3
  • 2
    • 18744425611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An examination of local versus nonlocal aspects of a TKE-based boundary layer scheme in clear convective conditions
    • Bélair, S., J. Mailhot, J. W. Strapp, and J. I. MacPherson, 1999: An examination of local versus nonlocal aspects of a TKE-based boundary layer scheme in clear convective conditions. J. Appl. Meteor., 38, 1499-1518.
    • (1999) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.38 , pp. 1499-1518
    • Bélair, S.1    Mailhot, J.2    Strapp, J.W.3    MacPherson, J.I.4
  • 4
    • 85172057925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preprints, 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Briggs, W. M., and D. Ruppert, 2004: Assessing the skill of yes/no forecasts for Markov observations. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2.2. [Available online at http://ams. confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/68436.pdf.].
    • (2004) Assessing the skill of yes/no forecasts for Markov observations
    • Briggs, W.M.1    Ruppert, D.2
  • 5
    • 0024224740 scopus 로고
    • Medium range lagged average forecasts
    • Dalcher, A., E. Kalnay, and R. N. Hoffman, 1988: Medium range lagged average forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 402-416.
    • (1988) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.116 , pp. 402-416
    • Dalcher, A.1    Kalnay, E.2    Hoffman, R.N.3
  • 6
    • 84874879599 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 20% wind energy by 2030. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Rep. DOE/GO-102008-2567
    • Department of Energy, 2008: 20% wind energy by 2030. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Rep. DOE/GO-102008-2567, 248 pp.
    • (2008) Department of Energy , pp. 248
  • 7
    • 79959311201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Electric power annual 2009. U.S. Energy Information Administration Rep. DOE/EIA-0348
    • Department of Energy, 2010: Electric power annual 2009. U.S. Energy Information Administration Rep. DOE/EIA-0348, 108 pp.
    • (2010) Department of Energy , pp. 108
  • 8
    • 0024921060 scopus 로고
    • Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model
    • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077-3107.
    • (1989) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.46 , pp. 3077-3107
    • Dudhia, J.1
  • 9
    • 74549158775 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neighborhood verification: A strategy for rewarding close forecasts
    • Ebert, E. E., 2009: Neighborhood verification: A strategy for rewarding close forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1498-1510.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 1498-1510
    • Ebert, E.E.1
  • 10
    • 1442314273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of the upgraded Noah land-surface model in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta Model
    • doi:10.1029/2002JD003296
    • Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, P. Grunmann, E. Rogers, G. Gayno, andV.Koren, 2003: Implementation of the upgraded Noah land-surface model in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta Model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.108 , pp. 8851
    • Ek, M.B.1    Mitchell, K.E.2    Lin, Y.3    Grunmann, P.4    Rogers, E.5    Gayno, G.6    Koren, V.7
  • 12
    • 84874844415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting sudden changes in wind power generation
    • Francis, N., 2008: Predicting sudden changes in wind power generation. North Amer. Windpower, 5, 58-60.
    • (2008) North Amer. Windpower , vol.5 , pp. 58-60
    • Francis, N.1
  • 14
    • 85172045929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • General Electric Company 1.5 MW series wind turbine. GE Energy Rep.A4_BRAPPENDIXA1A-GEOVERVIEW
    • General Electric Company, 2005: 1.5 MW series wind turbine. GE Energy Rep.A4_BRAPPENDIXA1A-GEOVERVIEW, 4 pp.
    • (2005) , pp. 4
  • 15
    • 70350414413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Temporal forecast uncertainty for ramp events
    • Greaves, B., J. Collins, J. Parkes, and A. Tindal, 2009: Temporal forecast uncertainty for ramp events. Wind Eng., 33, 309-320.
    • (2009) Wind Eng , vol.33 , pp. 309-320
    • Greaves, B.1    Collins, J.2    Parkes, J.3    Tindal, A.4
  • 16
    • 78149287295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analog sky condition forecasting based on a k-nn algorithm
    • Hall, T. J., R. N. Thessin, G. J. Bloy, and C. N. Mutchler, 2010: Analog sky condition forecasting based on a k-nn algorithm. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1463-1478.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1463-1478
    • Hall, T.J.1    Thessin, R.N.2    Bloy, G.J.3    Mutchler, C.N.4
  • 17
    • 0033396628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case studies
    • Harrison, M. S. J., T. N. Palmer, D. S. Richardson, and R. Buizza, 1999: Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case studies. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2487-2516.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 2487-2516
    • Harrison, M.S.J.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Richardson, D.S.3    Buizza, R.4
  • 18
    • 84977730235 scopus 로고
    • Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting
    • Hoffman, R. N., and E. Kalnay, 1983: Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting. Tellus, 35A, 100-118.
    • (1983) Tellus , vol.35 A , pp. 100-118
    • Hoffman, R.N.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 19
    • 0001704660 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model
    • Hong, S.-Y., and H.-L. Pan, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2322-2339.
    • (1996) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.124 , pp. 2322-2339
    • Hong, S.-Y.1    Pan, H.-L.2
  • 20
    • 33749016495 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new vertical diffusion package with explicit treatment of entrainment processes
    • Hong, S.-Y., Y. Noh, and J. Dudhia, 2006: A new vertical diffusion package with explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2318-2341.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 2318-2341
    • Hong, S.-Y.1    Noh, Y.2    Dudhia, J.3
  • 21
    • 0027880823 scopus 로고
    • Global and local skill forecasts
    • Houtekamer, P. L., 1993: Global and local skill forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1834-1846.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 1834-1846
    • Houtekamer, P.L.1
  • 22
    • 77951983762 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of three planetary boundary layer schemes in the WRFmodel
    • Hu, X.-M., J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, and F. Zhang, 2010: Evaluation of three planetary boundary layer schemes in the WRFmodel. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 1831-1844.
    • (2010) J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , vol.49 , pp. 1831-1844
    • Hu, X.-M.1    Nielsen-Gammon, J.W.2    Zhang, F.3
  • 23
    • 0029294334 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of time-series analysis to model and forecast wind speed
    • Huang, H., and Z. S. Chalabi, 1996: Use of time-series analysis to model and forecast wind speed. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 56, 311-322.
    • (1996) J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. , vol.56 , pp. 311-322
    • Huang, H.1    Chalabi, Z.S.2
  • 24
    • 0025662461 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package
    • Janjić, Z. I., 1990: The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1429-1443.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 1429-1443
    • Janjić, Z.I.1
  • 25
    • 0028607757 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain Eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous layer, and turbulence closure schemes
    • Janjić, Z. I., 1994: The step-mountain Eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous layer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 927-945.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 927-945
    • Janjić, Z.I.1
  • 26
    • 1342310488 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update
    • Kain, J. S., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170-181.
    • (2004) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.43 , pp. 170-181
    • Kain, J.S.1
  • 27
    • 34447628683 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-range forecast using time-lagged ensembles
    • Lu, C., H. Yuan, B. Schwartz, and S. Benjamin, 2007: Short-range forecast using time-lagged ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 580-595.
    • (2007) Wea. Forecasting , vol.22 , pp. 580-595
    • Lu, C.1    Yuan, H.2    Schwartz, B.3    Benjamin, S.4
  • 29
    • 70450177452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of an improved turbulence closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer
    • Nakanishi, M., and H. Niino, 2009: Development of an improved turbulence closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 905-909.
    • (2009) J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.87 , pp. 905-909
    • Nakanishi, M.1    Niino, H.2
  • 30
    • 85172048006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., JP1
    • Olson, J. B., and J. M. Brown, 2009: A comparison of two Mellor-Yamada-based PBL schemes in simulating a hybrid barrier jet. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., JP1.13. [Available online at http://ams. confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154321.pdf.].
    • (2009) A comparison of two Mellor-Yamada-based PBL schemes in simulating a hybrid barrier jet , pp. 13
    • Olson, J.B.1    Brown, J.M.2
  • 31
  • 33
    • 0028973701 scopus 로고
    • Development and testing of a surface flux and planetary boundary layer model for application in mesoscale models
    • Pleim, J. E., and A. Xiu, 1995: Development and testing of a surface flux and planetary boundary layer model for application in mesoscale models. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 16-32.
    • (1995) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.34 , pp. 16-32
    • Pleim, J.E.1    Xiu, A.2
  • 34
    • 85172062279 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • U.S. Department of Energy workshop report: Research needs for wind resource characterization. NREL Rep. TP-500-43521
    • Schreck, S., J. Lundquist, and W. Shaw, 2008: U.S. Department of Energy workshop report: Research needs for wind resource characterization. NREL Rep. TP-500-43521, 107 pp.
    • (2008) , pp. 107
    • Schreck, S.1    Lundquist, J.2    Shaw, W.3
  • 35
    • 79953318775 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intercomparison of planetary boundary-layer parametrizations in theWRF model for a single day from CASES-99
    • Shin, H. H., and S. Hong, 2011: Intercomparison of planetary boundary-layer parametrizations in theWRF model for a single day from CASES-99. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 139, 261-281.
    • (2011) Bound. -Layer Meteor. , vol.139 , pp. 261-281
    • Shin, H.H.1    Hong, S.2
  • 37
    • 0033825565 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems
    • Stensrud, D. J.,J.-W. Bao, and T. T. Warner, 2000: Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2077-2107.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 2077-2107
    • Stensrud, D.J.1    Bao, J.-W.2    Warner, T.T.3
  • 39
    • 31444455273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of a new spectral theory of stable stratified turbulence to the atmospheric boundary layer over sea ice
    • Sukoriansky, S., B. Galperin, and V. Perov, 2005: Application of a new spectral theory of stable stratified turbulence to the atmospheric boundary layer over sea ice. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 117, 231-257.
    • (2005) Bound. -Layer Meteor. , vol.117 , pp. 231-257
    • Sukoriansky, S.1    Galperin, B.2    Perov, V.3
  • 40
    • 24744470639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model
    • Theis, S. E., A. Hense, and U. Damrath, 2005: Probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model: A pragmatic approach. Meteor. Appl., 12, 257-268.
    • (2005) A pragmatic approach. Meteor. Appl. , vol.12 , pp. 257-268
    • Theis, S.E.1    Hense, A.2    Damrath, U.3
  • 41
    • 1542435949 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model
    • Walser, A., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2004: Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 560-577.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 560-577
    • Walser, A.1    Lüthi, D.2    Schär, C.3
  • 42
    • 33645982241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble transform Kalman filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP
    • Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, C. H. Bishop, and X. Wang, 2006: Ensemble transform Kalman filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP. Tellus, 58A, 28-44.
    • (2006) Tellus , vol.58 A , pp. 28-44
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2    Wobus, R.3    Zhu, Y.4    Bishop, C.H.5    Wang, X.6
  • 43
    • 0032999101 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill
    • Whitaker, J. S., and A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3292-3302.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 3292-3302
    • Whitaker, J.S.1    Loughe, A.F.2
  • 45
    • 0033931230 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wind flow over complex terrain: A historical perspective and the prospect for large-eddy modeling
    • Wood, N., 2000: Wind flow over complex terrain: A historical perspective and the prospect for large-eddy modeling. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 96, 11-32.
    • (2000) Bound. -Layer Meteor. , vol.96 , pp. 11-32
    • Wood, N.1
  • 46
    • 0035248223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of a land surface model Part I: Application in a mesoscale meteorological model
    • Xiu, A., and J. E. Pleim, 2001: Development of a land surface model. Part I: Application in a mesoscale meteorological model. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 192-209.
    • (2001) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.40 , pp. 192-209
    • Xiu, A.1    Pleim, J.E.2
  • 48
    • 1342310492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary layer parameterizations
    • Zhang, D.-L., and W.-Z. Zheng, 2004: Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary layer parameterizations. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 157-169.
    • (2004) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.43 , pp. 157-169
    • Zhang, D.-L.1    Zheng, W.-Z.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.