China's fear of contagion: Tiananmen square and the power of the European example

International Security

Volumn 37, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 156-182

  Sarotte, M E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 84874479589     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: 15314804     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00101     Document Type: Article

References (189)

1. Chen Jian, "Tiananmen and the Fall of the Berlin Wall: China's Path toward 1989 and Beyond," in Jeffrey A. Engel, ed., The Fall of the Berlin Wall: The Revolutionary Legacy of 1989 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 98.
2. The most famous prisoner is the recipient of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize, Liu Xiaobo. Other examples are Liao Yiwu, who was jailed for writing a poem about June 1989 and, after his release, ed China secretly (see Liao Yiwu, "Walking Out on China," New York Times, September 15, 2011)
3. LiWangyang, who was arrested in 1989, rearrested after a brief release, and died in jail in 2012 of unknown causes (see "Mysteriöser Tod eines Dissidenten," Tagesspiegel, June 8, 2012).
4. Jamil Anderlini, "Tiananmen Still Casts a Shadow over China," Financial Times, June 3, 2011
5. Some forms of protest are beyond the reach of the party, however; on June 4, 2012, the Shanghai Stock Exchange posted an unlikely broad index fall of 64.89 points, and large crowds gathered at a commemoration in Hong Kong. See Keith Bradsher, "China Gets an Odd, Eerie Reminder of Tiananmen," International Herald Tribune, June 5, 2012.
6. Scholars will nd more materials than those cited here in other locations, but the most useful sources for this article are in Germany (cited in the notes below) and the United States, particularly the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library (GHWBPL) in College Station, Texas. Not only has the Bush Library released a large number of documents in response to Freedom of Information (FOIA) and mandatory review requests by this article's author and others, but it has also put all declassied presidential "memcons" (memorandums of conversations) and "telcons" (memorandums of telephone conversations) on its website. Hence, any GHWBPL memcon or telcon cited below can be found in chronological orderhttp://bushlibrary.tamu.edu/research/memcons _telcons.php
7. Zhang Liang, Andrew Nathan, Perry Link, and Orville Schell, eds., The Tiananmen Papers: The Chinese Leadership's Decision to Use Force against Their Own People-In Their Own Words (New York: PublicAffairs, 2001
8. This edited volume set a new standard for book launches when rst published in 2001, because a special forty-eight page section in Foreign Affairs accompanied its release: Andrew J. Nathan, "The Tiananmen Papers," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 1 (January/February 2001), pp. 2-50
9. The commentary on the signicance of the joint launch of these papers in both book form and in Foreign Affairs, in Lowell Dittmer, "Review of The Tiananmen Papers," China Quarterly, No. 166 (June 2001), pp. 476-483
10. A Chinese-language version of The Tiananmen Papers also appeared in 2001: Zhong guo liu si zhen xiang (New York: Mirror Books, ). Note, the version of The Tiananmen Papers cited below is the subsequent 2002 English paperback with the same editors, title, and publisher, but updated front matter.2001
11. To be fair, the editors themselves point out the problematic nature of their volume, making clear that it came from a Chinese man using the cover name Zhang Liang (who is credited as an editor on the volume under that name). Zhang offered one of the editors, Andrew Nathan, "a 516-page computer-printed Chinese manuscript," which he had compiled. The editors became convinced that this typescript represented transcripts of internal CCP documents on Tiananmen Square. Zhang et al., The Tiananmen Papers, p. xii.
12. Alfred L. Chan, "The Tiananmen Papers Revisited," China Quarterly, No. 177 (March 2004), pp. 190-205
13. In a rebuttal printed in the same issue, one of The Tiananmen Papers' editors implied that Chan had fallen for efforts by the Chinese Ministry of State Security to cast doubt on the Papers: Andrew J. Nathan, "A Rejoinder to Alfred L. Chan," China Quarterly, No. 177 (March 2004), pp. 206-214
14. The basic conundrum, as expert Richard Baum has noted, is that the Papers suffer from an "inherent lack of veriability," barring an unlikely opening of all relevant archives. See Baum, "Tiananmen-The Inside Story?" China Journal, No. 46 (July 2001), pp. 119-134
15. Dittmer, "Review of The Tiananmen Papers," p. 476
16. Similarly, the historian Jonathan Spence pointed out that there had been a real Zhang Liang, namely, a historical gure from the third century b.c.e. who appears to have invented lengthy dialogues as a way of conveying his strategic analysis. As a result, Spence guessed that Zhang's choice of pseudonym was a hint that the transcripts were invented. See Spence, "Inside the Forbidden City," New York Times Book Review, January 21, 2001, pp. 10-11.
17. Zhao Ziyang's memoir appeared as Zhao, Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang, trans. and eds. Bao Pu, Renee Chiang, and Adi Ignatius (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2009). After Tiananmen, Zhao lived out his life under a kind of house arrest, during which time he reportedly authored this book by tape dictation, hid the tapes among the toys of his grandchildren, and arranged for the tapes to be smuggled out by a variety of people. What is supposedly Li Peng's diary appeared as Li Peng liu si ri ji zhen xiang: fu lu Li Peng liu si ri ji yuan wen [The true story of Li Peng's June 4 diaries:With the original "June 4 diaries" of Li Peng] (Hong Kong: Ao yao chu ban you xian gong si, 2010). The Fairbank Collection of the Fung Library at Harvard University has a digital version. For more on the Li Peng diary, see Andrew Jacobs, "Chinese Order Stops Printing of Memoir by Ex-Premier," New York Times, June 21, 2010
18. Ezra F. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2011), p. 830
19. In addition to the above sources, former Beijing Mayor Chen Xitong provided interviews for a book, but only more than two decades after the event. See Bao Pu, ed., Conversations with Chen Xitong (Hong Kong: New Century, 2012). Finally, from Deng Xiaoping, see Deng, Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, 1982-1992, trans. Bureau for the Compilation and Translation of Marx, Engels, Lenin, and Stalin (Beijing: Foreign Languages, 1994).
20. Harvard's Yenching Library maintains a Tiananmen Square archive containing original materials from the protest movement such as documents, photographs, big-character posters, and bloody clothing. For more details, see the Harvard-Yenching Library iSite, Tian an men zi liao ji, Hollis No. 008831066, Hollis Catalogue of Harvard University, http://lib.harvard.edu/catalogs/ hollis.html
21. Harvard, the Fairbank Center of the Fung Library maintains (among other items) a collection of Chinese-language neibu items, or materials intended for internal party use, in both book and DVD format, as well as extensive holdings of the Beijing Review and China Daily. For an example of work by a scholar who did manage to secure primary sources in China, see Frank Dikötter, Mao's Great Famine: The History of China's Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958-1962 (New York: Walker and Company, 2010). Dikötter took advantage of a period of relative openness surrounding the 2008 Beijing Olympics to work in provincial Chinese archives. In the wake of the political tightening-up after the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Liu Xiaobo in 2010 and the beginning of the Arab upheavals in 2011, however, Dikötter remarked that it would no longer be possible for other scholars to repeat his research. Dikötter, radio interview with BBC reporter Nick Higham upon Dikötter's receipt of the BBC Samuel Johnson Prize for Non-Fiction, July 6, 2011http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-14056789
22. Admittedly, these sources have their drawbacks. They are not complete in any sense, and there is no substitute for having original CCP sources. Research in them demands work in varied locations and languages.
23. This sequence of events summarizes Béja, The Impact of China's 1989 Massacre, pp. 2-63
24. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, pp. 602-6323
25. Zhao, Prisoner of the State, p. 29
26. Zhang et al., The Tiananmen Papers, pp. 56-212
27. (The estimate of 100 million people is at p. xxxi
28. Michael L. Evans, The U.S. "Tiananmen Papers": New Documents Reveal U.S. Perceptions of 1989 Chinese Political Crisis (Washington D.C.: NSA, 2001http://www.gwu.edu/nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB47/index2.html#docs. Note
29. Jeffrey T. Richelson and Michael L. Evans, Tiananmen Square, 1989: The Declassied History (Washington, D.C.: NSA, 1999), http://www.gwu .edu/nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/documents/index.html
30. Perry Link, Evening Chats in Beijing: Probing China's Predicament (New York: W.W. Norton, 1992
31. Qian Qichen, Ten Episodes in China's Diplomacy (New York: HarperCollins, 2005), p. 29
32. Shen Tong and Marianne Yen, Almost a Revolution: The Story of a Chinese Student's Journey from Boyhood to Leadership in Tiananmen Square (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990), pp. 323-326.
33. For the view that the main cause of the protests was a desire for democracy, see some of the contributions to Tony Saich, ed., The Chinese People's Movement: Perspectives on Spring 1989 (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1990
34. Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom, "Student Protests and the Chinese Tradition, 1919-1989," Refers to what happened as the "Democracy Uprising" (p. 22)
35. Tony Saich, "When Worlds Collide: The Beijing People's Movement of 1989," refers to "democratic salons" that promoted the movement (p. 35
36. J. Perry, "Casting a Chinese 'Democracy' Movement: The Roles of Students, Workers, and Entrepreneurs,quotin Perry and Wasserstrom, eds., Popular Protest and Political Culture in Modern China, 2d ed. (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994
37. One popular inspirational song as proof3the main lyric is, roughly, "Mao Zedong's son went to the front lines3Zhao Ziyang's son smuggles color television sets.3See also Perry, ", Vol. 20, No. 3 (2009), pp. 17-20
38. Aura Elizabeth Cunningham and Wasserstrom, "Interpreting Protest in Modern China," Dissent, Vol. 58, No. 1 (Winter 2011), pp. 13-18
39. Adam Roberts and Timothy Garton Ash, Civil Resistance and Power Politics: The Experience of Non-Violent Action from Gandhi to the Present (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009).
40. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, pp. 470, 600-601.
41. Beissinger denes a modular political phenomenon as "action that is based in signicant part on the prior successful example of others." Mark R. Beissinger, "Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions," Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 5, No. 2 (2007), pp. 259-276
42. Beissinger, "An Interrelated Wave," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 20, No. 1 (January 2009), pp. 74-77
43. In other words, CCP leaders worried-to paraphrase theorists Peter Leeson and Andrea Dean-about democratic dominoes falling on China from abroad. Leeson and Dean, "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 53, No. 3 (2009), pp. 533-551
44. Valerie Bunce and Sharon Wolchik, "Getting Real about 'Real Causes,'" Journal of Democracy, Vol. 20, No. 1 (January 2009), pp. 69-73
45. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Michael D. Ward, "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Vol. 60, No. 4 (Fall 2006), pp. 911-933.
46. Setting China in its international context, whether historically or in current terms, is a growing trend. As Andrew Nathan observed in 2011, newer scholarship on China "has long since called into doubt any essentialism about China's 'singularity,' 'centrality,' or 'strategic patience.
47. See Nathan, "What China Wants: Bargaining with Beijing," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4 2011), p. 155
48. Examples of work that set China in the context of its relations with other countries, particularly the Soviet Union/Russia, include Thomas P. Bernstein and Hua-Yu Li, eds., China Learns from the Soviet Union, 1949-Present (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littleeld, 2010
49. M. Taylor Fravel, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conict in China's Territorial Disputes (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2008)
50. Lorenz Lüthi, The Sino-Soviet Split: Cold War in the Com munist World (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2008)
51. Erez Manela, The Wilsonian Moment: Self-Determination and the International Origins of Anticolonial Nationalism (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007)
52. Christopher Marsh, Unparalleled Reforms: China's Rise, Russia's Fall, and the Interdependence of Transition (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littleeld, 2005
53. Peter Nolan, China's Rise, Russia's Fall: Politics, Economics, and Planning in the Transition from Stalinism (New York: St. Martin's, 1995)
54. Minxin Pei, From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1994)
55. Gilbert Rozman, The Chinese Debate about Soviet Socialism, 1978-1985 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1987).
56. Daniel A. Bell, "Why China Won't Follow Arab Revolt," New Perspectives Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 2 (Spring 2011), pp. 10-13
57. William H. Sewell Jr., "Historical Events as Transformations of Structures: Inventing Revolution at the Bastille," Theory and Society, Vol. 25, No. 6 (December 1996), pp. 841-881.
58. Scholars and journalists who have mentioned the importance of Europe include Richard Baum, Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1994), pp. 275-280
59. Bonnin, "The Chinese Communist Party and 4 June 1989," pp. 33-34
60. James Miles, The Legacy of Tiananmen: China in Disarray (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996), p. 42
61. David Shambaugh, China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008), pp. 43-46
62. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, pp. 625-626.
63. For more on the 1986 student protest, see Julia Kwong, "The 1986 Student Demonstrations in China: A Democratic Movement?" Asian Survey, Vol. 28, No. 91988 pp. 970-985.
64. Zhang et al., The Tiananmen Papers, p. lii.
65. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, p. 595
66. William Overholt points out that Deng managed to stay in power after his own death: "Even in , Deng ruled from the grave as his choice for top leader, Hu Jintao, was honored." As a result, the leadership choice in 2012 represented "the rst in three decades not controlled by Deng." Overholt, "Reassessing China: Awaiting Xi Jinping," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Spring 2012), pp. 121-1372002
67. For more on the structure of the government, party, and society in the PRC, see Tony Saich, Governance and Politics of China, 3d ed. (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011)
68. Tang Tsou, "The Tiananmen Tragedy: The State-Society Relationship, Choices, and Mechanisms in Historical Perspective," In BrantlyWomack, ed., Contemporary Chinese Politics in Historical Perspective (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), pp. 265-327
69. Zhang et al., The Tiananmen Papers, pp. l-lii
70. Richard Evans, Deng Xiaoping and the Making of Modern China (New York: Viking, 1993).
71. Zhang et al., The Tiananmen Papers, pp. l-li
72. James Mann, About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, From Nixon to Clinton (New York: Vintage, 1998), pp. 178-180.
73. "President's Meeting with President Yang Shangkun of the People's Republic of China," memcon, GHWBPL, February 25, 1989.
74. "Welcoming Banquet in Beijing, China," memcon, GHWBPL, February 25, 1989. 29. "President Bush's Meeting with Premier Li Peng of the People's Republic of China," memcon,
75. GHWBPL, February 26, 1989.
76. "Background: Status of Bilateral Diplomatic/Cultural Issues," GHWBPL, Douglas H. Paal les, FOIA 2000-0950-F, n.d., but from context late 1989 or 1990.
77. For the differences between the foreign policy approaches of the Ronald Reagan administration and George H.W. Bush administration, see Mary Elise Sarotte, 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009), chap. 1.
78. "Welcoming Banquet in Beijing, China."
79. "President Bush's Meeting with Premier Li Peng of the People's Republic of China."
80. Zhang et al., The Tiananmen Papers, pp. 184-187.
81. Chairman Deng Xiaoping of the People's Republic of China," memcon, GHWBPL, February 26, 1989
82. John W. Garver, "The Chinese Communist Party and the Collapse of Soviet Communism," China Quarterly, No. 133 (1993), pp. 1-26.
83. "President Bush's Meeting with General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party Zhao Ziyang of the People's Republic of China," memcon, GHWBPL, February 26, 1989.
84. For more on historical relations between the two Germanies and the PRC, see Michael Mayer, "No Unsolicited Advice: The People's Republic of China and German Reunication, 1989-1990," in Joanne Miyang Cho and Eric Kurlander, eds., Encounters between Germany and Asia (London: Routledge, forthcoming).
85. As Gilbert Rozman describes it, from to 1991 "ofcial China grew increasingly nervous about Gorbachev's impact." Rozman, "China's Concurrent Debate about the Gorbachev Era," in Bernstein and Li, eds., China Learns from the Soviet Union, 1949-Present, p. 4691986
86. For more on China and the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, see Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, ed., The Cold War in East Asia, 1945-Present (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2011)3and Artemy M. Kalinovsky and Sergey Radchenko, eds., The End of the Cold War and the Third World: New Perspectives on Regional Conict (London: Routledge, 2011).
87. The author thanksWilliam Kirby for a discussion of the history of PRC-East German relations. See also Hans Kundnani and Jonas Parello-Plesner, "Beware the New Beijing-Berlin Relationship," Financial Times, May 15, 2012.
88. On the 1950s and 1960s in the PRC and Europe, see Roderick MacFarquhar, The Origins of the Cultural Revolution, Contradictions among the People, 1956-1957 (New York: Columbia University Press, 19741
89. Roderick MacFarquhar and Michael Schoenhals, Mao's Last Revolution (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2006
90. Christian F. Ostermann, The United States, the East German Uprising of 1953, and the Limits of Rollback (Washington, D.C.: Cold War International History Project, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1994).
91. Portions of the transcript from Erich Honecker's 1986 visit to the PRC are in an untitled document in the East German Ministry for State Security (or Stasi) Archive (MfS), ZAIG 7081, October/ November 1986.
92. There are numerous Stasi les on East Germans who expressed sympathy for the victims in Tiananmen Square. See, for example, MfS, HA XX AKG 139, 221, 292, 3137, 3953, 6388, 6643, 6827, and 7272. The letters about Tiananmen received by the East German Central Committee included one saying that "we are ashamed that our country, our government, is praising this bloodbath." MfS, HA II 26624, letter to the Central Committee, June 6, 1989.
93. Sarotte, 1989, p. 18.
94. "Vermerk über ein Gespräch mit dem Rat der chinesischen Botschaft, Liu Qibao," in the united Germany's Foreign Ministry Political Archive (PA/AA), from the East German Foreign Ministry collection (MfAA), ZR 529/03, June 30, 1989
95. Similar remarks in reports with the same title, in the same le, from July 14, September 7, September 28, and November 25, 1989; and in "Information über aktuelle Tendenzen der ideologischen Arbeit der KP Chinas," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 614/03, August 23, 1989.
96. "Vermerk über ein Gespräch mit dem Rat der chinesischen Botschaft, Liu Qibao," November 27, 1989.
97. "Vermerk über ein Gespräch mit dem Rat der chinesischen Botschaft, Liu Qibao," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 529/03, September 7, 1989. See also similar remarks in reports with the same title, in the same le, from July 30 and July 14, 1989. On the trade between the PRC andWest Germany, particularly in the nuclear industry, see "Information über die nukleare Zusammenarbeit BRD-VR China," MfS, HV A 821, n.d., but from context 1989.
98. The visiting group was ofcially an Interior Ministry (MdI) delegation, but such groups often included Stasi representatives as well, as suggested by the presence of this report in the MfS les. The visit report ("Teilbericht über den Besuch einer Delegation des MdI der DDR beim Ministerium für Öffentliche Sicherheit der VR China," in MfS, Abt. X 894, September 21-29, 1989) includes an extensive study of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security. See also the earlier East German study of the Chinese security apparatus, "Eine kurze Einführung zur öffentlichen Sicherheit in China," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 609/03, November 9, 1987.
99. "Information," produced by MfAA but preserved in MfS, HA II 163, June 15, 1989.
100. "Abschrift, IM-Bericht," MfS, HA II 574, September 20, . The agent who authored this report was Ernst Schwarz, a Sinologist at East Berlin's Humboldt University who also worked under the cover name "Karl Weber" for the Stasi. Schwarz also noted ongoing signs of the regime's collapse in authority in 1989, such as its inability to prevent countryside residents from blocking roads and charging "tolls" to allow cars to pass.1989
101. A summary of Yao Yilin's visit appears in "Vorlage für das Politbüro des ZK der SED, Berlin, den 10. Oktober 1989," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 2495-90.
102. Mary FulbrookHis own party was losing control and, roughly a month later, would fail to prevent the breaching of the Berlin Wall. On the demise of East Germany, see , The People's State: East German Society from Hitler to Honecker (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2005); and Sarotte, 1989.
103. "Bericht über den Aufenthalt der Partei- und Staatsdelegation der DDR unter Leitung des Mitglieds des Politbüros und Sekretärs des ZK der SED, Genossen Egon Krenz. . vom 25. September bis 2. Oktober 1989 in der VR China," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 2496-90. Some duplicates are also available at the Archive of Party and Mass Organizations of the Former GDR (SAPMO) and in Werner Meissner and Anja Feege, eds., Die DDR und China 1949 bis 1990: Politik - Wirtschaft - Kultur, Eine Quellensammlung (Berlin: Akademie Verlag, 1995
104. East Berlin was particularly interested in the CCP's conclusions as to the causes of the protest movement. See "Bericht für das Politbüro über die Lage in der VR China," doc. 201, in Meissner and Feege, Die DDR und China 1949pp. 406-407.
105. "Vermerk über das Gespräch des Generalsekretärs des ZK der KP Chinas, Genossen Jiang Zemin, mit Genossen Egon Krenz am 26. September 1989 in Peking," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 2496-90. Excerpts from this conversation are also available in a document with the same title in Meissner and Feege, Die DDR und China 1949 bis 1990, doc. 204, pp. 412-414.
106. "Vermerk über das Gespräch des Mitglieds des Politbüros und Sekretärs des ZK der SED, Genossen Egon Krenz. . mit Genossen Qiao Shi, Mitglied des Ständigen Ausschußes des Politbüros und des Sekretariats des ZK der KP Chinas, Sekretär der Disziplinkontrollkommission beim ZK der KP Chinas, am 25. September 1989 im Gebäude des Nationalen Volkskongresses," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR2496/90, p. 7. Excerpts from this conversation are also available in a document with the same title in Meissner and Feege, Die DDR und China 1949409-411.
107. "Gespräche des Genossen Egon Krenz, Mitglied des Politbüros und Sekretär des ZK der SED, mit Genossin Li Shuzheng, Kandidat [sic] des ZK und stellvertretender Leiter [sic] der Abteilung Internationale Verbindungen des ZK der KP Chinas," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 2496-90, p. 9, n.d., but from context between September 25 and October 2, 1989. Excerpts from this conversation are also available in a document with the same title in Meissner and Feege, Die DDR und China 1949 bis 1990, doc. 207pp. 416-419
108. On Li Shuzheng, see also "Vermerk über eine Information zu den jüngsten Ereignissen in der VR China," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 615/03, July 4, 1989.
109. Li Peng liu si ri ji zhen xiang, p. 85.
110. "Open Letter to Teachers and Students of Beijing Foreign Studies University," PA/AA, MfAA, ZR 626/03, April 24, 1989. See also reports from various GDR foreign embassies available in SAPMO, http://startext.net-build.de:8080/barch/MidosaSEARCH/dy30aiv/index.htm.
111. "Äußerungen des I. Sekretärs der Botschaft der VR China in der DDR," MfS, ZAIG 7081, n.d. but from context summer 1989.
112. Li Shuzheng, Conversation with Egon Krenz, pp. 10-11.
113. Li Peng liu si ri ji zhen xiang, p. 171.
114. Yao Yilin, Speech to the CCP Central Committee, location not cited, but probably Beijing, June 13, 1989, quoted in Shambaugh, China's Communist Party, pp. 43-44.
115. Li Shuzheng, Conversation with Egon Krenz, pp. 11-12.
116. See "Department of State Intelligence Brief, Current Situation in China: Background and Prospects," in Richelson and Evans, Tiananmen Square, doc. 24, n.d., but from context on or about June 10, 1989. In addition to its online postings, the NSA issued a microche collection of thousands of telegrams and other reports on China that were sent to and from the U.S. State Department. A set is available at Harvard University, "China and the United States," Microche Collection W 5868, Lamont Library.1989
117. Zhao, Prisoner of the State, pp. 46-48
118. For Gorbachev's documents from the visit, see his edited collection [Responding to the challenge of the time] (Moscow: Ves; Mir, 2010), pp. 879-888.
119. Quotation in CIA, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, "Trends," CIA Electronic Reading Room, May 24, 1989, http://www.foia.cia.gov/docs/DOC_0000444686/DOC_0000444686.pdf
120. Jing xin dong po de 56 tian: 1989 nian 4 yue 15 ri zhi 6 yue 9 ri mei ri ji shi [The shocking 56 days: The daily record of April 15 to June 9] (Beijing: Da di chu ban she, 1989), p. 122.
121. Director of Central Intelligence, National Intelligence Daily, "China: Zhao Fighting Back," CIA Electronic Reading Room, May 11, 1989, http://www.foia.cia.gov/docs/DOC_0000444695/DOC _0000444695.pdf.
122. "Department of State Intelligence Brief, Current Situation in China."
123. "Amembassy Beijing to Secstate Washdc," doc. 01059, che 202, June 3, Microche Collection W 5868, Lamont Library.1989
124. For more detail on the violence, see Baum, Burying Mao, pp. 283-307
125. Jean-Philippe Béja, "The Massacre's Long Shadow," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 20, No. 3 (2009), pp. 5-16
126. Béja, The Impact of China's 1989 Tiananmen Massacre; Timothy Brook, Quelling the People: The Military Suppression of the Beijing Democracy Movement (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1998); Craig Calhoun, Neither Gods nor Emperors: Students and the Struggle for Democracy in China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997
127. Joseph W. Esherick and Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom, "Acting Out Democracy: Political Theater in Modern China," Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 49, No. 4 (1990), pp. 835-865
128. Miles, The Legacy of Tiananmen. On Chinese protest movements
129. Merle Goldman, From Comrades to Citizens: The Struggle for Political Rights in China (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2005).
130. The Chinese Red Cross estimate is given in Mark Kramer, "The Collapse of East European Communism and the Repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part 2)," Journal of Cold War Studies, Vol. 6, No. 4 (2004), pp. 33-34
131. Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, "China as a Factor in the Collapse of the Soviet Empire," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 110, No. 4 (1995501-519.
132. "Äußerungen des I. Sekretärs der Botschaft der VR China in der DDR"; and Chen Xitong, quoted in Jamil Anderlini and Enid Tsui, "Former Beijing Mayor Regrets Tiananmen Square Tragedy," Financial Times, May 30, 2012. See also Tania Branigan, "Ex-Mayor: Tiananmen Was a Tragedy," Guardian, May 30, 2012. In 1989 the Beijing Review reported that the PLA had endured 5,000 casualties and caused 2,000 to civilians, "including rioters who committed crimes and on lookers who did not know the truth." See "Counter-Revolutionary Riot Quelled," Beijing Review, June 12-25, 1989, p. 5.
133. "Department of State Intelligence Brief, Current Situation in China."
134. Yang Shangkun, Li Peng, Qiao Shi, Yao Yilin, Li Xiannian, Peng Zhen, Wang Li, Wan Zhen, and Bo Yibo. See "Deng Hails Armymen," Beijing Review, June 12-25, 1989, p. 4.
135. "U.S. Embassy Beijing Cable, China and the U.S.-A Protracted Engagement," in Evans, The U.S. "Tiananmen Papers," doc. 11, July 11, 1989.
136. Department of State Intelligence Brief, Current Situation in China
137. Douglas H. Paal les, FOIA 2000-0116-F, August 4, 1989
138. Bartholomew H. SparrowFor more on Scowcroft, see ,, 1989-1993," Diplomatic History, Vol. 34, No. 1 (January 2010), pp. 141-175."Realism's Practitioner: Brent Scowcroft and the Making of the NewWorld Order
139. "U.S. Embassy Beijing Cable, China and the U.S.-A Protracted Engagement."
140. Li Shuzheng, Conversation with Egon Krenz, p. 12.
141. Guan Guihai, "The Inuence of the Collapse of the Soviet Union on China's Political Choices," In Bernstein and Li, China Learns from the Soviet Union, 1949-Present, p. 506. For more on the connections between the demise of the Soviet Union and the post-Cold War development of the PRC, see Aviezer Tucker, "Restoration and Convergence: Russia and China since 1989," in George Lawson, Chris Armbruster, and Michael Cox, eds., The Global 1989: Continuity and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), pp. 157-178.
142. Yang Hua, ed., Dong Ou ju bian ji shi [Record of drastic change in Eastern Europe] (Beijing: Shi jie zhi shi chu ban she, 1990
143. Ju an si wei: Su gong wang dang de li shi jiao xun: Ba ji dian shi pian [Consider danger in times of peace: Historical lessons from the death of the CPSU: Eight video episodes] (Zhong yang ji wei fang zheng chu ban she: Jilin chu ban ji tuan, 2006
144. Zhou Xincheng Sulian yu Dong Ou guo jia de yan bian ji qi li shi jiao xun [The historical lessons of the collapse of the Soviet Union and East European countries] (Hefei, China: Anhui renmin chubanshe, 2000
145. Yang, Dong Ou ju bian ji shi, pp. 10-11
146. Gregory F. Domber, "Skepticism and Stability: Reevaluating U.S. Policy during Poland's Democratic Transformation in 1989," Journal of ColdWar Studies, Vol. 13, No. 3 (2011), pp. 52-82.
147. George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1998), p. 90.
148. Jeffrey A. Engel, "A Better World. . but Don't Get Carried Away: The Foreign Policy of George H.W. Bush Twenty Years On," Diplomatic History, Vol. 34, No. 1 (January 2010), pp. 37-38.
149. Qiao Shi, Conversation with Egon Krenz, pp. 8-9
150. Fang Lizhi, see "My Confession," New York Review of Books, June 23, 2011, pp. 23-24
151. For his obituary, see Michael Wines, "Fang Lizhi, Chinese Physicist and Seminal Dissident, Dies at 76," New York Times, April 7, 2012http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/world/asia/fang-lizhi-chinese-physicistand- dissident-dies-at-76.html
152. "Vermerk über ein Gespräch mit dem Rat der chinesischen Botschaft, Liu Qibao," September 7, 1989.
153. Randolph Kluver, "Rhetorical Trajectories of Tiananmen Square," Diplomatic History, Vol. 34, No. 1 (January 2010), p. 83.
154. Nicholas D. Kristof, "Strained U.S. Ties Reported in China," New York Times, October 5, 1989, http://www.nytimes.com/1989/10/05/world/strained-us-ties-reported-in-china.html.
155. Both the congressional letter to the White House of July 2, and the subsequent correspondence are available at the GHWBPL, box 91133-001.1990
156. "Telephone Conversation with Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom," telcon, GHWBPL, June 5, 1989.
157. Kluver, "Rhetorical Trajectories of Tiananmen Square," p. 71.
158. Robert L. Suettinger, "The United States and China: Tough Engagement," In Richard N. Haass and Meghan L. O'Sullivan, eds., Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), p. 14
159. Robert L. Suettinger, Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000 (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2003)
160. Lowell Dittmer, Sino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications, 1945-1990 (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1992
161. Harry Harding, A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China since 1972 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1992
162. David M. Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001
163. Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989 (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1995)
164. The documents agree on the basics of the attack-that a large truck convoy red on the embassy-but differ on the number of trucks involved and whether the convoy strafed the embassy on its way to or from Tiananmen Square.
165. James Lilley and Jeffrey Lilley, China Hands: Nine Decades of Adventure, Espionage, and Diplomacy in East Asia (New York: PublicAffairs, 2005), p. 354.
166. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, pp. 99-102
167. Harding, A Fragile Relationship, p. 227.
168. Harding, A Fragile Relationship, p. 228
169. Qian QichenOn PRC-U.S. relations, generally, see , conversation with the author as part of a group of White House Fellows, Beijing, May 8, 2002.
170. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, pp. 100-111.
171. Jesse Helms was a powerful U.S. senator from North Carolina who served as both a member and later a chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; quotation from Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 103.
172. "Themes," in Richelson and Evans, Tiananmen Square, 1989, doc. 33, June 29, 1989. The authors note that they received this document from James Mann.
173. Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, pp. 107-110
174. "Background: Direct Action against U.S.," GHWBPL, Douglas H. Paal les, FOIA 2000-0950- F, n.d., but from context late 1989 or 1990.
175. Harding, A Fragile Relationship, pp. 254-258
176. Link, Evening Chats in Beijing, pp. 302-303
177. Harding, A Fragile Relationship, pp. 258-261.
178. "First Plenary Session of the Sixteenth Economic Summit of Industrialized Nations," Memcon, GHWBPL, July 10, 1990.
179. Mann, About Face, pp. 230-231.
180. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, p. 653.
181. Odd ArneWestad, "Conclusion:Was There a Global 1989?" In Lawson, Armbruster, and Cox, The Global 1989, pp. 271-281
182. The events in the Arab world in 2011 and 2012 overlapped with preparations for the CCP leadership transition in 2012 and thereby contributed to anxieties at a time of change. See Anne Barnard, "China Sought to Sell Arms to Qadda, Documents Suggest," New York Times, September 5, 2011
183. Geoff Dyer, "Who Will Be China's Next Leaders?" Financial Times, March 4, 2011
184. Edward Wong and Jonathan Anseld, "China Grooming Deft Politician as Next Leader," New York Times, January 23, 2011.
185. Westad, "Conclusion: Was There a Global 1989?" p. 280
186. Timothy Cheek, Living with Reform: China since 1989 (London: Zed, 2006), pp. 71-72
187. Joseph Fewsmith, China since Tiananmen, 2d ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008)
188. Philip P. Pan, Out of Mao's Shadow: The Struggle for the Soul of a New China (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2008)
189. Barry Naughton, Who has described the effect of June 1989 on China's development as follows: "[B]efore Tiananmen, China's leaders were willing to subordinate other national interests to society. After Tiananmen, while reformers still pursued a vision of a transformed economy, that vision was linked to, and often subordinated to, strengthened, stabilized, and more effective government power." Naughton, "The Impact of the Tiananmen Crisis on China's Economic Transition," in Béja, The Impact of China's 1989 Massacre, p. 156.