Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 80, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 398-407

  Gao, Lidan ^a,b   Porter, Alan L ^c   Wang, Jing ^d   Fang, Shu ^a   Zhang, Xian ^a   Ma, Tingting ^e   Wang, Wenping ^e   Huang, Lu ^e  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS   (China)

^b SOUTHWEST JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^d HUAQIAO UNIVERSITY   (China)

^e BEIJING INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (China)

Author keywords

Cathode ray tube; Indicator; Nano biosensor; Patent; Technology life cycle; Thin film transistor liquid crystal display

Indexed keywords

INDICATOR VALUES; LIFE CYCLE STAGES; MANAGEMENT PRACTICES; NANO-BIOSENSOR; NEAREST-NEIGHBOUR CLASSIFIER; OBJECT TECHNOLOGY; PATENT; PATENT APPLICATIONS; PATENT DOCUMENTS; S-CURVE; TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE; TEST TECHNOLOGY; THIN FILM TRANSISTOR LIQUID CRYSTAL DISPLAYS;

BIOSENSORS; CATHODE RAY TUBES; INDICATORS (INSTRUMENTS); LIFE CYCLE; LIQUID CRYSTAL DISPLAYS; PATENTS AND INVENTIONS; PATTERN RECOGNITION; TESTING; THIN FILM TRANSISTORS;

TECHNOLOGY;

NUMERICAL MODEL; RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT; TECHNOLOGY;

EID: 84873990538     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.003     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Norman D.A. The life cycle of a technology: why it is so difficult for large companies to innovate? Online at,. http://www.nngroup.com/reports/life_cycle_of_tech.html.
2. Ming H.X.G., Lu W.F., Zhu C.F. Technology challenges for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP 2004, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology.
3. Vijay T.A. Challenges in product strategy, product planning and technology development for product life cycle. CIRP Ann. Manuf. Technol. 2008, 43(1):157-162.
4. Martino J.P. Technological Forecasting for Decision Making 1993, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY. 3rd Edition.
5. Roper A.T., Cunningham S.W., Porter A.L., Mason T.W., Rossini F.A., Banks J. Forecasting and Management of Technology 2011, John Wiley, New York, NY. 2nd Edition.
6. Porter A.L., Rader M. Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types. Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy 2008, 149-162. Springer, Berllin. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre' (Eds.).
7. Nolte W.L., Kennedy B.C., Dziegiel R.J. Technology readiness level calculator, NDIA Systems Engineering Conference online at, http://lincoln.gsfc.nasa.gov/trl/Nolte2003.pdf.
8. NASA HRST Technology Assessments Online at,. http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/codeq/trl/trlchrt.pdf.
9. Little A.D. The strategic management of technology 1981, European Management Forum, Davos.
10. Ernst H. The use of patent data for technological forecasting: the diffusion of CNC-technology in the machine tool industry. Small Bus. Econ. 1997, 9(4):361-381.
11. Lee T.H., Nakicenovic N. Life cycle of technology and commercial policy. Sci. Technol. Rev. 1989, 1:38-43.
12. W.Y. Zhou, Probe into the research of the electric technological development trend of plasma display with the patent index, Ph.D. dissertation, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2005.
13. C.M. Chu, Using technology life cycle to analysis the developing trend of thin-film photovoltaic industry, Ph.D. dissertation, National Central University, Taiwan, 2008.
14. Robert J.W., Porter A.L. Innovation forecasting. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 1997, 56:25-47.
15. Haupt R., Kloyer M., Lange M. Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development. Res. Policy 2007, 36:387-398.
16. Zhang X., Fang S., Tang C., Xiao G.H., Hu Z.Y., Gao L.D. Study on indicator system for core patent documents evaluation. Proceedings of ISSI 2009 - The 12th International Conference of the International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2009, 154-164.
17. Zhang C., Zhu D.H., Wang X.F. Chinese patent analysis of IC package technology. J. Mod. Inf. 2006, 9:160-166.
18. C.M. Chu, Using technology life cycle to analysis the developing trend of thin-film photovoltaic industry, Ph.D. dissertation, National Central University Taiwan, 2009.
19. Tang T.T., Liu P., Zhang P., Ge F.B., Li M. Application of Gompertz curve model in the patent trend forecast. New Technol. Libr. Inf. Serv. 2009, 11:59-63.
20. Yu H.L. Analysis of the particleboard technology based on TRIZ and S-Curve technique evolution law. Forest. Sci. Technol. 2009, 34(4):57-60.
21. Wu Y.C., Yen T.C. RFID technology innovations: use of patent data. IEEE in Beijing 2008.
22. Meyer M. Does science push technology? Patents citing scientific literature. Res. Policy 2000, 29:409-434.
23. Hicks D., Breitzman A., Hamilton K., Narin F. Research excellence and patented innovation. Sci. Public Policy 2000, 27(5):310-320.
24. Narin F., Noma E., Perry R. Patents as indicators of corporate technological strength. Res. Policy 1987, 16:143-155.
25. Lerner J. The importance of patent scope: an empirical analysis. Rand J. Econ. 1994, 25:319-333.
26. T.H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph.D. dissertation, National University of Tainan Institutional Repository, Taiwan, 2007.
27. C.H. Yeh, A comparative analysis of Taiwan's CRT and TFT-LCD industries - based on the viewpoints of industrial ecology and life cycle, Ph.D. dissertation, Da-Yeh University, Taiwan, 2005.
28. Ding S.Q. The commemoration for 100th anniversary of the cathode ray tube. Chin. J. Liquid Crystals Displays 1997, 12(3):153-160.
29. H.J. Lai, Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph.D. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.
30. Porter A.L., Youtie J., Shapira P., Schoeneck D.J. Refining search terms for nanotechnology. J. Nanopart. Res. 2008, 10:715-728.
31. Huang L., Peng Z.C., Guo Y., Porter A.L. Identifying the emerging roles of nanoparticles in biosensors. J. Bus. Chem. 2010, 7(1):15-29.
32. Erickson D., Mandal S., Yang A.H.J., Cordovez B. Nanobiosensors: optofluidic, electrical and mechanical approaches to biomolecular detection at the nanoscale. Microfluid. Nanofluid. 2008, 4(1-2):33-52.
33. Urban G.A. Micro- and nanobiosensors-state of the art and trends. Meas. Sci. Technol. 2009, 20:1-18.
34. Gordon T.J. Trend impact analysis. Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0., Millennium Project, WFUNA, Washington, DC 2009, Chapter 8. J.C. Glenn, T.J. Gordon (Eds.).
35. Popper E.T., Buskirk B.D. Technology life cycles in industrial markets. Ind. Market Manage. 1992, 21(1):23-31.
36. Hajime E. The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy: a Japanese view. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2003, 70(3):231-249.
37. Yoon J., Kim K. Trend perceptor: a property-function based technology intelligence system for identifying technology trends from patents. Expert Syst. Appl. 2012, 39(3):2927-2938.
38. Hajime E. Obstacles for the acceptance of technology foresight to decision makers, lessons from complaint analysis of technology forecasting. Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy 2004, 1(3-4):1740-2816.
39. Lee C., Cho Y., Seol H., Park Y. A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2012, 79(1):16-29.
40. Porter A.L. Technology foresight: types and methods. Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy 2010, 6(1/2/3):36-45.