Modelling dwelling fire development and occupancy escape using Bayesian network

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 114, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 75-91

  Matellini, D B ^a   Wall, A D ^a   Jenkinson, I D ^a   Wang, J ^a   Pritchard, R ^b  

^a LIVERPOOL JOHN MOORES UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b MERSEYSIDE FIRE AND RESCUE SERVICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bayesian network; Dwellings; Fire growth flashover; Human reaction; State of the occupant

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; HOUSING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION; DWELLINGS; FIRE GROWTH; FIRE SCENARIOS; HUMAN REACTION; MODEL FUNCTIONS; OCCUPANT RESPONSE; PROBABILISTIC MODELLING; SAFETY ASSESSMENTS; SPECIFIC AREAS; STATE OF THE OCCUPANT; TWO PARTS;

FIRES;

EID: 84873626761     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.01.001     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. V. Babrauskas Toxic hazard from fires: a simples assessment method Fire Safety Journal 20 1993 1 14 (Pubitemid 23593307)
2. V Babrauskas, RG Gann, BC Levin, M Paabo, RH Harris, and RD Peacok A methodology for obtaining and using toxic potential data for fire hazard analysis Fire Safety Journal 31 1998 345 358 (Pubitemid 128431613)
3. V Brannigan, and A. Kilpatrick Fire scenarios in the enforcement of performance-based fire safety regulations Journal of Fire Sciences 18 2000 354 375 (Pubitemid 32027082)
4. British Standards Institution. (2003). Initiation and development of fire within the enclosure of origin (Sub-system 1), Application of Fire Safety Engineering Principles to the Design of Buildings, PD7974-1, Part 1, British Standards Institution, London. Cited in YUNG (2008), see YUNG.
5. Bryan, JL. 1991. Human behaviour in fire. Fire Protection Handbook, 17th ed., National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA. Cited in MEACHAM, see MEACHAM.
6. H Cheng, and GV. Hadjisophocleous The modeling of fire spread in buildings by Bayesian network Fire Safety Journal 44 2009 901 908
7. G Chu, and J. Sun Decision analysis on fire safety design based on evaluating building fire risk to life Safety Science 46 2008 1125 1136 (Pubitemid 351842647)
8. GQ Chu, T Chen, ZH Sun, and JH. Sun Probabilistic risk assessment for evacuees in building fires Building and Environment 42 2007 1283 1290 (Pubitemid 44774636)
9. Communities and Local Government. 2002. Fire statistics United Kingdom, 2000. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www. communities.gov.uk/fire/researchandstatistics/firestatistics/firestatisticsuk/ 〉 [Accessed, 3rd December 2010].
10. Communities and Local Government. 2007. Using the English Indices of Deprivation 2007. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/communities/doc/615986.doc〉 [Accessed, 28th June 2010].
11. Communities and Local Government. 2008. Fire statistics United Kingdom, 2006. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www. communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/firestatisticsuk2006〉 [Accessed, 3rd December 2010].
12. Communities and Local Government. 2009. Review of Fire and Rescue Service response times: Fire research series 1/2009. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/fire/ frsresponsetimes〉 [Accessed, 10th December 2011].
13. Communities and Local Government. 2010a. Fire statistics United Kingdom, 2008. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www. communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/firestatisticsuk2008〉 [Accessed, 3rd December 2010].
14. Communities and Local Government. 2010b. English housing survey: Housing stock report 2008. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingsurveys/ englishhousingsurvey/ehspublications/〉 [Accessed, 18th September 2011].
15. Communities and Local Government. 2011. Fire statistics Great Britain, 2010-2011. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www. communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/firestatsgb201011〉 [Accessed, 14th February 2012].
16. Encarta Encyclopedia. 2010. Sleep. Encarta Encyclopedia online deluxe 1999-present. Available at: 〈http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/ 186436/Encarta〉 [Accessed 4th November, 2010].
17. D Hanea, and B. Ale Risk of human fatality in building fires: a decision tool using Bayesian networks Fire Safety Journal 44 2009 704 710
18. M Hanninen, and P. Kujala Influences of variable on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model Reliability Engineering and System Safety 102 2012 27 40
19. AM Hasofer, and VR. Beck The probability of death in the room of fire origin: an engineering formula Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 10 4 2000 19 28
20. Hofmann, A, Knaust, C, Aschenbrenner, D. (2007). Hazards of fires in children's rooms - experimental and numerical investigation of different scenarios. In: Proceedings of the fifth international seminar on fire and explosion hazards, Edinburgh, UK, 23-27th April, 2007.
21. PG Holborn, PF Nolan, and J. Golt An analysis of fire sizes, fire growth rates and times between events using data from fire investigations Fire Safety Journal 39 2004 481 524
22. Holicky, M, Schleich, J. Fire safety assessment using Bayesian causal network. Foresight and Precaution. Cottam, Harvey, Pape, and Tait (editors.), 2000, p. 1301-1306.
23. Holicky, M, Schleich, J. 2002. Modelling of structural systems under fire situation. ASRANet Colloquium 2002. Glasgow, U.K., July 2002. Available at: 〈http://www.maritime-conferences.com/asranet2010-conference/〉 [Accessed 22nd September, 2009].
24. Hugin Expert A/S. 2012. Hugin GUI help. Hugin Researcher 7.6 (2012).
25. F.V Jensen, and TD. Nielsen Bayesian networks and decision graphs. (2nd ed.) Information science and statistics 2007 Springer Science+Business Media LLC, New York
26. P. Kannan Bayesian networks: application in safety instrumentation and risk reduction ISA Transactions 46 2 2007 255 259 (Pubitemid 46435873)
27. N Khakzad, F Khan, and P. Amyotte Safety analysis in process facilities: comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches Reliability Engineering and System Safety 96 2011 925 932
28. UB Kjærulff, and AL. Madsen Bayesian networks and influence diagrams: a guide to construction and analysis. Information science and statistics 2008 Springer Science+Business Media LLC, New York
29. T Kohda, and W. Cui Risk-based reconfiguration of safety monitoring system using dynamic Bayesian network Reliability Engineering & System Safety 92 12 2007 1716 1723 (Pubitemid 47088929)
30. Marriott, MD. 2003. 54/1993: Cause and consequences of domestic fires. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www.communities. gov.uk/archived/publications/fire/causesconsequences〉 [Accessed 8th November, 2010].
31. JE Martin, T Rivas, JM Matias, J Taboada, and A. Arguelles A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height Safety Science 47 2 2009 206 214
32. DB Matellini, AD Wall, ID Jenkinson, J Wang, and R. Pritchard A Bayesian network model for fire development and occupant response within dwellings Bérenguer Grall, Guedes Soares, Advances in safety, reliability and risk management: ESREL 2011 2012 Taylor and Francis Group London
33. H Mcdermott, R Haslam, and A. Gibb Occupant interactions with self-closing fire doors in private dwellings Safety Science 48 10 2010 1345 1350
34. DA. Mcentire Disaster response and recovery 2007 John Wiley and Sons Inc
35. BJ. Meacham Integrating human behaviour and response issues into fire safety management of facilities Facilities 17 1999 303 312 No. 9/10
36. SJ. Melinek The distribution of fire load Fire Safety Journal 20 1993 83 88
37. Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service, (2009). Integrated Risk Management Plan consultation document 2010-2013: Appendix A. Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service. Available at: 〈http://www.merseyfire.gov.uk/aspx/pages/IRMP/pdf/ IRMP-2010%20-040310.pdf〉 [Accessed 8th November, 2010].
38. Night owl Network. 2010. Percentage of night owls, early birds and intermediates in the general population. Available at: 〈http://www. nightowlnet.com/archive07.htm〉 [Accessed 15th October, 2010].
39. D Nilsson, and A. Johansson Social influence during the initial phase of a fire evacuation - analysis of evacuation experiments in a cinema theatre Fire Safety Journal 44 2009 71 79
40. P. Perry Fire safety questions and answers: a practical approach 2003 Thomas Telford Limited
41. G. Proulx Evacuation time and movement in apartment buildings Fire Safety Journal 24 1995 229 246
42. Puchovsky, M. Performance Based Design in the United States. In: Proceedings: international conference on fire research and engineering, Orlando, Florida. 1995, p. 187-192.
43. Reynolds, C. 2002. 72/1997: Causes of fire deaths. Communities and Local Government. Available at: 〈http://www.communities.gov.uk/archived/ publications/fire/causesfire〉 [Accessed 8th November, 2010].
44. Schur, C. 1994. Birds of a different feather: Early birds and night owls talk about their characteristic behaviors. Cited in NIGHT OWL NETWORK, see NIGHT OWL NETWORK. Siegel, J. M. (n.d.). Sleep. Cited in ENCARTA ENCYCLOPEDIA, see ENCARTA ENCYCLOPEDIA.
45. TJ Shields, and KE. Boyce A study of evacuation from large retail stores Fire Safety Journal 35 2000 25 49
46. P Stollard, and J. Abrahams Fire from first principles 3rd ed. 1999 E & FN SPON
47. M Sukegawa, A Noda, Y Morishita, H Ochi, S Miyata, and K Honda Sleep and lifestyle habits in the morning and evening types of human circadian rhythm Biological Rhythm Research 40 2 2009 121 127
48. N. Thomson Fire hazards in industry 2002 Butterworth Heinemann
49. P Trucco, E Cagno, F Ruggeri, and O Grande A Bayesian belief network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: a case study in maritime transportation Reliability Engineering & System Safety 93 6 2008 845 856 (Pubitemid 351305172)
50. JP Yuan, Z Fang, YC Wang, SM Lo, and P. Wang Integrated network approach of evacuation simulation for large complex buildings Fire Safety Journal 44 2009 266 275
51. D. Yung Principles of fire risk assessment in buildings 2008 John Wiley and Sons Limited
52. M Zhong, S Congling, X Tu, T Fu, and L. He Study of human evacuation simulation of metro fire safety analysis in China Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 21 2008 287 298 (Pubitemid 351662707)