메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 170, Issue , 2013, Pages 2-7

Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Climate models; Climate variability; Crop models; Crop yield; Ensembles; Food security; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; AGRICULTURAL MODELING; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; CROP YIELD; FOOD SECURITY; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84872917820     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.007     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (69)

References (41)
  • 2
    • 84872894996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity over tropical regions
    • , in press
    • Berg A., de Noblet-Ducoudré N., Sultan B., Lengaigne M., Guimberteau M. Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity over tropical regions. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Berg, A.1    de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.2    Sultan, B.3    Lengaigne, M.4    Guimberteau, M.5
  • 3
    • 84867176040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The case for objective Bayesian analysis
    • Berger J. The case for objective Bayesian analysis. Bayesian Anal. 2006, 1(3):385-402.
    • (2006) Bayesian Anal. , vol.1 , Issue.3 , pp. 385-402
    • Berger, J.1
  • 4
    • 33644526990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A manifesto for the equifinallity thesis
    • Beven K. A manifesto for the equifinallity thesis. J. Hydrol. 2006, 320:18-36.
    • (2006) J. Hydrol. , vol.320 , pp. 18-36
    • Beven, K.1
  • 5
    • 77958576688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Collins (2010) Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China
    • Challinor A.J.E.S., Simelton E.D.G., Fraser D., Hemming M. Collins (2010) Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China. Environ. Res. Lett. 2010, 5:034012.
    • (2010) Environ. Res. Lett. , vol.5 , pp. 034012
    • Challinor, A.J.E.S.1    Simelton, E.D.G.2    Fraser, D.3    Hemming, M.4
  • 7
    • 67650928663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation
    • Challinor A.J., Ewert F., Arnold S., Simelton E., Fraser E. Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J. Exp. Bot. 2009, 60(10):2775-2789. 10.1093/jxb/erp062.
    • (2009) J. Exp. Bot. , vol.60 , Issue.10 , pp. 2775-2789
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Ewert, F.2    Arnold, S.3    Simelton, E.4    Fraser, E.5
  • 8
    • 62249188927 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change
    • Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Hemming D., Upadhyaya H.D. Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change. Climate Res. 2009, 38:117-127.
    • (2009) Climate Res. , vol.38 , pp. 117-127
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2    Hemming, D.3    Upadhyaya, H.D.4
  • 9
    • 43949123545 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops
    • Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R. Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2008, 148:1062-1077.
    • (2008) Agric. For. Meteorol. , vol.148 , pp. 1062-1077
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2
  • 10
    • 39749184968 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties
    • Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R. Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2008, 148:343-356.
    • (2008) Agric. For. Meteorol. , vol.148 , pp. 343-356
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2
  • 11
    • 33845390861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures
    • Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Ferro C.A.T., Stephenson D.B. Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2007, 119(1-2):190-204.
    • (2007) Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. , vol.119 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 190-204
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2    Craufurd, P.Q.3    Ferro, C.A.T.4    Stephenson, D.B.5
  • 13
    • 34547225982 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Papers of theme issue
    • Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Papers of theme issue. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. A 2007, 365(1857):1955-2191.
    • (2007) Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. A , vol.365 , Issue.1857 , pp. 1955-2191
  • 15
    • 70449383691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do we need more precise and accurate predictions in order to adapt to a changing climate?
    • Dessai S., Hulme M., Lempert R., Pielke R. Do we need more precise and accurate predictions in order to adapt to a changing climate?. EOS 2009, 90(13):111-112.
    • (2009) EOS , vol.90 , Issue.13 , pp. 111-112
    • Dessai, S.1    Hulme, M.2    Lempert, R.3    Pielke, R.4
  • 16
    • 84872951301 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • " Vulnerability hotspots" : integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought
    • , in press
    • Fraser E.D.G., Simelton E., Termansen M., Gosling S.N., South A. " Vulnerability hotspots" : integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.008, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Fraser, E.D.G.1    Simelton, E.2    Termansen, M.3    Gosling, S.N.4    South, A.5
  • 17
    • 84872908172 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management
    • , in press
    • Garrett K.A., Dobson A.D.M., Kroschel J., Natarajan B., Orlandini S., Tonnang H.E.Z., Valdivia C. The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.018, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Garrett, K.A.1    Dobson, A.D.M.2    Kroschel, J.3    Natarajan, B.4    Orlandini, S.5    Tonnang, H.E.Z.6    Valdivia, C.7
  • 18
    • 84872936776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty
    • , in press
    • Gouache D., Bensadoun A., Brun F., Pagé C., Makowski D., Wallach D. Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.019, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Gouache, D.1    Bensadoun, A.2    Brun, F.3    Pagé, C.4    Makowski, D.5    Wallach, D.6
  • 19
    • 84872920965 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble modelling of climate change risks and opportunities for managed grasslands in France
    • , in press
    • Graux A.-I., Bellocchi G., Lardy R., Soussana J.-F. Ensemble modelling of climate change risks and opportunities for managed grasslands in France. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.010, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Graux, A.-I.1    Bellocchi, G.2    Lardy, R.3    Soussana, J.-F.4
  • 20
    • 84872893332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe
    • , in press
    • Hawkins E., Osborne T.M., Kit Ho C., Challinor A.J. Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Hawkins, E.1    Osborne, T.M.2    Kit Ho, C.3    Challinor, A.J.4
  • 21
    • 84872965235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO2 and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble
    • , in press
    • Hemming D., Betts R., Collins M. Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO2 and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2011, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.016, in press.
    • (2011) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Hemming, D.1    Betts, R.2    Collins, M.3
  • 22
    • 84872964455 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models
    • , in press
    • Hoglind M., Thorsen S.M., Semenov M.A. Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.010, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Hoglind, M.1    Thorsen, S.M.2    Semenov, M.A.3
  • 23
    • 77952784340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Science, subjectivity and software (comment on articles by Berger and by Goldstein
    • O'Hagan A. Science, subjectivity and software (comment on articles by Berger and by Goldstein. Bayesian Anal. 2006, 1(3):445-450.
    • (2006) Bayesian Anal. , vol.1 , Issue.3 , pp. 445-450
    • O'Hagan, A.1
  • 24
    • 84872919380 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation
    • , in press
    • Osborne T., Rose G., Wheeler T. Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.006, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Osborne, T.1    Rose, G.2    Wheeler, T.3
  • 25
    • 84872955178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting climate-change-caused changes in global temperature on potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) distribution and abundance using phenology modeling and GIS mapping
    • , in press
    • Kroschel J., Sporleder M., Tonnang H.E.Z., Juarez H., Carhuapoma P., Gonzales J.C., Simon R. Predicting climate-change-caused changes in global temperature on potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) distribution and abundance using phenology modeling and GIS mapping. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.017, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Kroschel, J.1    Sporleder, M.2    Tonnang, H.E.Z.3    Juarez, H.4    Carhuapoma, P.5    Gonzales, J.C.6    Simon, R.7
  • 26
    • 84872892535 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Errors in climate datasets and their effects on statistical crop models
    • , in press
    • Lobell D.B. Errors in climate datasets and their effects on statistical crop models. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.05.013, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Lobell, D.B.1
  • 27
    • 28244473013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From oceans to farms: the value of a novel statistical climate forecast for agricultural management
    • McIntosh, Peter C., Andrew J., Mark Stafford Smith Ash From oceans to farms: the value of a novel statistical climate forecast for agricultural management. J. Climate 2005, 18:4287-4302. 10.1175/JCLI3515.1.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 4287-4302
    • McIntosh, P.C.1    Andrew, J.2    Mark Stafford Smith, A.3
  • 28
    • 77952593375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The drama of uncertainty
    • Mearns L.O. The drama of uncertainty. Climatic Change 2010, 100(1):77-85. 10.1007/s10584-010-9841-6.
    • (2010) Climatic Change , vol.100 , Issue.1 , pp. 77-85
    • Mearns, L.O.1
  • 29
    • 84872918107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: the EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum
    • , in press
    • Ramirez-Villegas J., Jarvis A., Läderach P. Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: the EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2011, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.005, in press.
    • (2011) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Ramirez-Villegas, J.1    Jarvis, A.2    Läderach, P.3
  • 33
    • 84872896888 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection
    • , in press
    • Tao F., Zhang Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2011, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.003, in press.
    • (2011) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Tao, F.1    Zhang, Z.2
  • 34
    • 84872938174 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change
    • , in press
    • Teixeira E.I., Fischer G., van Velthuizen H., Walter C., Ewert F. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2011, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.002, in press.
    • (2011) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Teixeira, E.I.1    Fischer, G.2    van Velthuizen, H.3    Walter, C.4    Ewert, F.5
  • 36
    • 80053529511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Closing the loop: climate science, development practice and policy interactions in dryland agro-ecological systems
    • Twyman C., Fraser E., Stringer L.C., Quinn C., Dougill A.J., Ravera F., Sallu S.M. Closing the loop: climate science, development practice and policy interactions in dryland agro-ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2011, 16.
    • (2011) Ecol. Soc. , pp. 16
    • Twyman, C.1    Fraser, E.2    Stringer, L.C.3    Quinn, C.4    Dougill, A.J.5    Ravera, F.6    Sallu, S.M.7
  • 38
    • 84872929116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model
    • , in press
    • Watson J., Challinor A. The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.08.001, in press.
    • (2012) Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Watson, J.1    Challinor, A.2
  • 39
    • 80052809575 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production
    • White J.W., Hoogenboomb G., Kimball B.A., Wall G.W. Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. Field Crops Research 2011, 124(3):357-368.
    • (2011) Field Crops Research , vol.124 , Issue.3 , pp. 357-368
    • White, J.W.1    Hoogenboomb, G.2    Kimball, B.A.3    Wall, G.W.4
  • 41
    • 80053329454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change-an introductory essay
    • Yohe G., Oppenheimer M. Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change-an introductory essay. Climatic Change 2011, 108:629-639.
    • (2011) Climatic Change , vol.108 , pp. 629-639
    • Yohe, G.1    Oppenheimer, M.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.