Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 33, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 277-290

  Del Rio S ^a   Anjum Iqbal, M ^b   Cano Ortiz, A ^c   Herrero, L ^a   Hassan, A ^d   Penas, A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEÓN   (Spain)

^b GC University Faisalabad   (Pakistan)

^c UNIVERSITY OF JAÉN   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE   (Pakistan)

Author keywords

Mann Kendall; Mean temperature; Pakistan; Teleconnection patterns; Trends

Indexed keywords

MANN-KENDALL; MEAN TEMPERATURE; PAKISTAN; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS; TRENDS;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; STATISTICAL TESTS; WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; AIR-SEA INTERACTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; MONSOON; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; TELECONNECTION; TREND ANALYSIS;

PAKISTAN;

EID: 84872604679     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3423     Document Type: Article

References (90)

1. Afzaal M, Ma H, Zaman Q. 2009. Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in the area-weigted annual mean temperature of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 6(11): 13-19.
2. Ahmad I, Zhaobo S, Weitao D, Ambreen R. 2010. Trend analysis of January temperature in Pakistan over the period of 1961-2006: Geographical perspective. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 7(13): 11-22.
3. Arif M, Tariq MA, Nadem F. 2004. Correlation between multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Pakistan's summer rainfall. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 1(2): 53-63.
4. Arora M, Goel NK, Singh P. 2005. Evaluation of temperature trends over India. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 50(1): 81-93.
5. Arora R, Rowland LJ, Tanino K. 2003. Induction and release of bud dormancy in woody perennials: A science comes of age. HortScience 38: 911-921.
6. Azmat H. 2004. The influence of La-Nina phenomena on Pakistan's precipitation. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 1(1): 23-31.
7. Chaudhry QZ, Mahmood A, Rasul G, Afzaal M. 2009. Climate Change Indicators of Pakistan. Technical Report No. PMD 22/2009. Pakistan Meteorological Department: Islamabad.
8. Chaudhary QZ, Rasul G. 2004. Agro-Climatic Classification of Pakistan. Science Vision 9(1): 59-66.
9. Chaudhry QZ, Rasul G. 2007. Global Warming and Expected snowline shift along Northern Mountains of Pakistan. Proceedings of 1st Asiaclic symposium, Yokohama, Japan.
10. Chaudhry QZ, Sheikh MM. 2002. Climate Change and its Impact on the Water Resources of Mountain Regions of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Geography 11(172): 45-59.
11. Cheema MA, Farooq M, Ahamd R, Munir H. 2006. Climatic trends in Faisalabab (Pakistan) over the last 60 years (1945-2004). Journal of Agriculture & Social Sciences 2(1): 42-45.
12. Crowley TJ, Lowery T. 2000. How warm was the medieval warm period? Ambio 29: 51-54.
13. Cruz R, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, Anokhi Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda H, Jafari M, Li C, Ninh H. 2007. Asia. In Climate Change 2007. Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmenral Panel on Climate Change. Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, van der Linden P, Hanson C (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York.
14. De US, Mukhopadhyay RK. 1998. Severe heat wave over the Indian subcontinent in 1998, in perspective of global climate. Current Science 75: 1308-1311.
15. del Río S, Herrero L, Fraile R, Penas A. 2010. Spatial distribution of recent rainfall trends of Spain 1961-2006. International Journal of Climatology 31: 656-667. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2111.
16. Dikbas F, Firat M, Koc A, Güngör M. 2010. Homogeneity test for Turkish temperature series. Balwois 2010. 25-29 May.
17. Dinpashoh Y, Jhajharia D, Fakheri-Fard A, Singh VP, Kahya E. 2011. Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. Journal of Hydrology 399(3): 422-433.
18. Dong M, Wu Z. 2008. Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature change over the last 50 years in northeast China. Resources Science 30(7): 1093-1099.
19. Easterling DR, Horton B, Jones PD, Peterson TC, Karl TR, Parker DE, Salinger JM, Razuvzyev V, Plummer N, Jamason P, Folland CK. 1997. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 227: 364-365.
20. Farooqi A, Khan A, Mir H. 2005. Climate change perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 2(3): 11-21.
21. Folland CK, Knight J, Linderholm HW, Fereday D, Ineson S, Hurrell JW. 2009. The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, Present, and Future. Journal of Climate 22(5): 1082-1103. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2459.
22. Gilbert RO. 1987. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold: New York.
23. Gokturk OM, Karaka M. 2006. Influence of the North Sea Caspian Pattern on the hydroclimate of Turkey. Geophysical Research Abstracts 8: 00314.
24. Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH. 2004. Arctic oscillation influence on daily temperature variance in winter over China. Chinese Science Bulletin 49(6): 637-642.
25. Gruza G, Rankova E. 2004. Detection of changes in climate state, climate variability and climate extremity. Proceedings of the World Climate Change Conference, Moscow. Izrael Y, Gruza G, Semenov S, Nazarov I (eds). Institute of Global Climate and Ecology: Moscow, 90-93.
26. Hatzaki M, Flocas HA, Asimakopoulos DN, Maheras P. 2007. The eastern Mediterranean teleconnection pattern: identification and definition. International Journal of Climatology 27(6): 727-737. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1429.
27. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North-Atlantic Oscillation-regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269(5224): 676-679. DOI: 10.1126/science.269.5224.676.
28. Hurrell JW, Kushni Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M. 2003. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophysical Monograph Series, 134. American Geophysical Union: Washington DC.
29. Hussain SS, Mudasser M, Sheikh MM, Manzoor N. 2005. Climate change and variability in mountain regions of Pakistan implications for water and agriculture. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 2(4): 75-90.
30. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York.
31. IPCC. 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M. Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York.
32. Iqbal MA, Eitzinger J, Formayer H, Hassan A, Heng LK. 2011. A simulation study for accessing yield optimization and potential for water reduction for summer-sown maize under different climate change scenarios. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 149(2): 129-143.
33. Islam S, Rehman N, Sheikh MM. 2009. Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells durations over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model. Climate Change 94: 35-45. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9557-7.
34. Izrael YA, Nazarov IM, Yakovlev AF, Anokhin YU, Boltneva LI, Gytarsky ML, Gruza GV, Egorov VI, Karaban RT, Nakhutin AI, Artemov EM. 2002. Third National Communication of the Russian Federation. Inter-agency Commission of the Russian Federation of Climate Change, Moscow. Available http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rusnce3.pdf.
35. Jhajharia D, Dinpashoh Y, Kahya E, Singh VP, Fakheri-Fard A. 2011. Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India. Hydrological Processes. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8140.
36. Jhajharia D, Shrivastava SK, Sarkar D, Sarkar S. 2009. Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149(5): 763-770.
37. Jhajharia D, Singh VP. 2011. Trends in temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration in Northeast India. International Journal of Climatology 31(9): 1353-1367.
38. Jeong JH, Ho CH. 2005. Changes in occurrence of cold surges over East Asia in association with arctic oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L14704.
39. Jones PD, Raper SCB, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Kelly PM, Wigley TMC. 1986. Northern Hemispheric surface air variation: 1851-1984. Journal of Climatology and Applied Meteorology 25: 161-179.
40. Kahya E, Kalayci S. 2004. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology 289(1): 128-144.
41. Khan FK. 2002. Pakistan Geography, Economy and People. Oxford University Press: Karachi.
42. Kothawale DR, Revadekar JV, Kumar KR. 2010. Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India. Journal of Earth System Science 119(1): 51-65.
43. Kousari MR, Zarch MAA. 2011. Minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 4(5): 907-914.
44. Kryjov VN. 2002. The influence of the winter Arctic oscillation on the northern Russia spring temperature. International Journal of Climatology 22(7): 779-785. DOI: 10.1002/joc.746.
45. Kutiel H, Maheras P, Türkes M, Paz S. 2002. North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP)-an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the eastern Mediterranean-implications on the regional climate. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 72(3): 173-192. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-002-0674-8.
46. Kutiel H, Türkes M. 2005. New evidence for the role of the North Sea-Caspian Pattern on the temperature and precipitation regimes in continental Central Turkey. Geografiska Annaler Series a-Physical Geography 87A(4): 501-513. DOI: 10.1111/j.0435-3676.2005.00274.x.
47. Li ZX, He YQ, Wang CF, Wang XF, Xin HJ, Zhang W, Cao WH. 2011. Spatial and temporal trends of temperature and precipitation during 1960-2008 at the Hengduan Mountains, China. Quaternary International 236: 127-142.
48. Linderholm HW, Folland CK, Hurrell JW. 2008. Reconstructing Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability over the last five centuries. In TRACE- Tree rings in Archaeology. Climatology and Ecology vol. 6. Elferts D, Brumelis G, Gärtner H, Helle G, Schieser G (eds). Proceedings of the Dendrosymposium 2007, May 3rd-6th 2007, Riga, Latvia, 6-13.
49. Liu Q, Yang Z, Cui B. 2008. Spatial and temporal variability of annual precipitation during 1961-2006 in Yellow River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology 361(3): 330-338.
50. Luo Y, Liu S, Fu SL, Liu JS, Wang GQ, Zhou GY. 2008. Trends of precipitation in Beijiang River basin, Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Processes 22(13): 2377-2386.
51. Mann ME, Jones PD. 2003. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters 30(15): 1-4.
52. a Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa de Geodesia y Geofísica: Sevilla.
53. McSweeney C, New M, Lizcano G. 2008. UNPD Climate Change Country Profiles: Pakistan. 27. Available at: http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk.
54. Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlen W. 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433: 613-618.
55. Modarres R, Rodrigues VP. 2007. Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Journal of Arid Environments 70: 344-355. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.12.024.
56. Muñoz-Diaz D, Rodrigo FS. 2004. Spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal rainfall in Spain (1912-2000) using cluster and principal component analysis: comparison. Annales Geophysicae 22: 1435-1448. DOI: 10.5194/angeo-22-1435-2004.
57. Naqvi SN, Rehmat M. 1962. Weather and climate of Pakistan. Pakistan Geographical Review 17: 12-16.
58. Oerlemans J. 1994. Quantifying global warming from retreat of glaciers. Science 264: 243-245.
59. Parmesan C, Yohe G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42. DOI: 10.1038/nature0128.
60. Partal T, Kahya E. 2006. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes 20(9): 2011-2026.
61. Pozo-Vázquez D, Esteban-Parra MJ, Rodrigo FS, Castro-Diez Y. 2001. A study of NAO variability and its possible non-linear influences on European surface temperature. Climate Dynamics 17(9): 701-715. DOI: 10.1007/s003820000137.
62. Qiang F, Celeste MJ, Stephen GW, Dian JS. 2004. Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 429: 55-57.
63. Qin NX, Chen X, Fu GB, Zhai JQ, Xue XW. 2010. Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960-2007. Hydrological Processes 24(25): 3733-3744.
64. Reddaway JM, Bigg GR. 1996. Climatic change over the mediterranean and links to the more general atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 16(6): 651-661.
65. Rodrigo FS, Trigo RM. 2007. Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. International Journal of Climatology 27(4): 513-529. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1409.
66. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild plants and animals. Nature 421: 57-60. DOI: 10.1038/nature0133.
67. Ryoo SB, Kwon WT, Jhun JG. 2004. Characteristics of wintertime daily and extreme minimum temperature over South Korea. International Journal of Climatology 24(2): 145-160. DOI: 10.1002/joc.990.
68. Sadiq N. 2010. Climatic variability and linear trend models for the five major cities of Pakistan. Journal of Geography and Geology 2(1): 83-92.
69. Sajjad SH, Hussain B, Khan MA, Raza A, Zaman B, Ahmed I. 2009. On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan. Climatic Change 96(4): 539-547. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9598-y.
70. Salmi T, Maatta A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T. 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope stimates -the excel template application MAKESENS.
71. Savelieva IP, Semiletov LN, Vasilevskaya, Pugach SP. 2000. A climate shift in seasonal values of meteorological and hydrological parameters for Northeastern Asia. Progress in Oceanography 47: 279-297. DOI: 10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00039-2.
72. Schaer C, Vidale PL, Luthi D, Frei C, Haberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C. 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heat waves. Nature 427: 332-336.
73. Sheikh MM, Manzoor N, Adnan M, Ashraf J, Khan AM. 2009. Climate Profile and Past Climate Changes in Pakistan. Research Report No.GCISC-RR-01. Global Change Impact Studies Centre: Islamabad.
74. Shirazi SA, Zahid F, Bokhari MH. 2006. Impact of spatio-temporal trends and anomalies of surface air temperature over Punjab. Geographical Papers 1(1): 22-32.
75. Soon W-H, Legates DR, Baliunas S. 2004. Estimation and representation of long-term (>40 year) trends of Northern Hemisphere-gridded surface temperature: a note of caution. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L03209. DOI: 1029/2003GRL019141.
76. Sun JQ, Wang HJ, Yuan W. 2009. Role of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature in the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 114: D20110.
77. Suppiah R, Hennessy KJ. 1996. Trends in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall in tropical Australia and links with the Southern Oscillation. Australian Meteorological Magazine 45(1): 1-17.
78. Syed FS, Giorgi F, Pal JS, King MP. 2006. Effect of remote forcings on the winter precipitation of central southwest Asia part 1: observations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 86(1): 147-160. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-005-0217-1.
79. Syed FS, Giorgi F, Pal JS, Keay K. 2010. Regional climate model simulation of winter climate over Central-Southwest Asia, with emphasis on NAO and ENSO effects. International Journal of Climatology 30: 220-235. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1887.
80. Tabari H, Talaee PH. 2011. Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966-2005. Journal of Hydrology 396(3): 313-320. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.11.034.
81. Tatli H. 2007. Synchronization between the North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) and surface air temperatures in NCEP. International Journal of Climatology 27(9): 1171-1187. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1465.
82. Thom H. 1966. Some Methods of Climatological Analysis. Secretary of the World Meteorological Organization: Geneva, Switzerland.
83. Trigo RM, Osborn TJ, Corte-Real JM. 2002. The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Climate Research 20: 9-17. DOI: 10.3354/cr020009.
84. Türkes M, Erlat E. 2009. Winter mean temperature variability in Turkey associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 105(3): 211-225. DOI: 10.1007/s00703-009-0046-3.
85. Vinnikov K, Graisman PYa, Lugina KM. 1990. Empirical data on contemporary global climatic changes (Temperature and Precipitation). Journal of Climate 3: 662-677.
86. Wang DX, Wang CZ, Yang XY, Lu J. 2005. Winter Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 32: l16706.
87. Xu ZX, Gong TL, Li JY. 2008. Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau-regional temperature and precipitation. Hydrological Processes 22(16): 3056-3065. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6892.
88. Yang S, Lau KM, Yoo SH, Kinter JL, Miyakoda K, Ho CH. 2004. Upstream subtropical signals preceding the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Journal of Climate 17(21): 4213-4229. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3192.1.
89. Yu RC, Zhou TJ. 2004. Impacts of winter-NAO on March cooling trends over subtropical Eurasia continent in the recent half century. Geophysical Research Letters 31(12): L12204. DOI: 1029/2004GL019814.
90. Yuan W, Sun JQ. 2009. Enhancement of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Influence on Northern Hemisphere Air Temperature. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 26(6): 1209-1214. DOI: 10.1007/s00376-009-8148-x.