Characterizing the uncertainty propagation from the wind conditions to the optimal farm performance

Collection of Technical Papers - AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages

  Chowdhury, Souma ^a   Zhang, Jie ^a   Messac, Achille ^b   Castillo, Luciano ^a  

^a RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE   (United States)

^b Syracuse University   (United States)

Author keywords

Cost of energy; Farm layout; Particle swarm optimization; Turbine; Uncertainty; Wind distribution

Indexed keywords

AIR DENSITY; ENGINEERING DESIGN; LAYOUT OPTIMIZATION; LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; NON-PARAMETRIC; PROJECT COST; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION; WIND CONDITIONS; WIND DISTRIBUTION; WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY; WIND FARM; WIND FARM LAYOUTS; WIND FARM PLANNING; WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONS;

DESIGN; ELECTRIC UTILITIES; PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION (PSO); STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS; TURBINES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

WIND POWER;

EID: 84872463571     PISSN: 02734508     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.2514/6.2011-1821     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (35)

1. "World Wind Energy Report 2009," Tech. rep., World Wind Energy Association, Bonn, Germany, March 2010.
2. Carta, J., Ramírez, P., and Velázquez, S., "A Review of Wind Speed Probability Distributions Used in Wind Energy Analysis Case Studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 13, No. 5, 2009, pp. 933-955.
3. Morgan, E., Lackner, M., Vogel, R., and Baise, L., "Probability Distributions for Offshore Wind Speeds," Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2010.06.015, 2010.
4. Zhang, J., Chowdhury, S., Messac, A., and Castillo, L., "Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation," ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability & 9th Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology Conference, ASME, Washington, DC, August 2011.
5. Durstewitz, M., Dobesch, H., Kury, G., Laakso, T., Ronsten, G., and Santti, K., "European Experience with Wind Turbines in Icing Conditions," European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition, EWEA, London, UK, November 2004.
6. Frohboese, P. and Anders, A., "Effects of Icing on Wind Turbine Fatigue Loads," Journal of Physics conference Series: The Science of Making Torque from Wind, Vol. 75, 2007.
7. Sorensen, P. and Nielsen, T., "Recalibrating Wind Turbine Wake Model Parameters - Validating the Wake Model Performance for Large Offshore Wind Farms," European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition, EWEA, Athens, Greece, February 2006.
8. Beyer, H. G., Lange, B., and Waldl, H. P., "Modelling Tools for Wind Farm Upgrading," European Union Wind Energy Conference, AIAA, Goborg, Sweden, May 1996.
9. Jensen, N. O., "A Note on Wind Turbine Interaction," Tech. Rep. M-2411, Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark, 1983.
10. Katic, I., Hojstrup, J., and Jensen, N. O., "A Simple Model for Cluster Efficiency," European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition, EWEA, Rome, Italy, 1986.
11. Mikkelsen, R., and Srensen., J. N., ye, S., and Troldborg, N., "Analysis of Power Enhancement for a Row of Wind Turbines Using the Actuator Line Technique," Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 75, No. 1, 2007.
12. Grady, S. A., and Hussaini., M. Y., Abdullah, M. M., "Placement of Wind Turbines Using Genetic Algorithms," Renewable Energy, Vol. 30, No. 2, February 2005, pp. 259-270.
13. Sisbot, S., Turgut, O., Tunc, M., and Camdali, U., "Optimal positioning of Wind Turbines on Gkeada Using Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm," Wind Energy, Vol. 13, No. 4, April (online) 2009, pp. 297-306.
14. Gonzleza, J. S., Rodriguezb, A. G. G., Morac, J. C., and Santos., J. R., Payan, M. B., "Optimization of Wind Farm Turbines Layout Using an Evolutive Algorithm," Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 8, August 2010, pp. 1671-1681.
15. Chowdhury, S., Zhang, J., Messac, A., and Castillo, L., "Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO): Investigating Key Factors Influencing the Maximum Power Generation," accepted by Renewable Energy, 2010.
16. Zhang, J., Chowdhury, S., Messac, A., Castillo, L., and Lebron, J., "Response Surface Based Cost Model for Onshore Wind Farms Using Extended Radial Basis Functions," ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference (IDETC/CIE 2010), No. DETC2010-29121, ASME, Montreal, Canada, August 2010.
17. Chowdhury, S., Zhang, J., Messac, A., and Castillo, L., "Developing a Flexible Platform for Optimal Engineering Design of Commercial Wind Farms," ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability and 9th Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology Conference, ASME, Washington, DC, August 2011.
18. Frandsen, S., Barthelmie, R., Pryor, S., Rathmann, O., Larsen, S., Hojstrup, J., and Thogersen, M., "Analytical Modeling of Wind Speed Deficit in Large Offshore Wind Farms," Wind Energy, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, January (online) 2006, pp. 39-53.
19. th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, AIAA, Reno, Nevada, USA, January 2006.
20. Crespo, A., Hernández, J., and Frandsen, S., "Survey of Modelling Methods for Wind Turbine Wakes and Wind Farms," Wind Energy, Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 1-24.
21. Chowdhury, S., Messac, A., Zhang, J., Castillo, L., and Lebron, J., "Optimizing the Unrestricted Placement of Turbines of Differing Rotor Diameters in a Wind Farm for Maximum Power Generation," ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference (IDETC/CIE 2010), No. DETC2010-29129, ASME, Montreal, Canada, August 2010.
22. Cal, R. B., Lebron, J., Kang, H. S., Meneveau, C., and Castillo, L., "Experimental Study of the Horizontally Averaged Flow Structure in a Model Wind-Turbine Array Boundary Layer," Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2010.
23. Crasto, G., "Numerical Simulations of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer," Tech. rep., Universit degli Studi di Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy, February 2007.
24. Zhang, J., Chowdhury, S., Messac, A., and Castillo, L., "Economic Evaluation of Wind Farms Based on Cost of Energy Optimization," 13th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis Optimization Conference, No. AIAA 2010-9244, AIAA, Fort Worth, September 2010.
25. "Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model," Tech. rep., National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, USA, October 2009.
26. Burton, T., David, S., Jenkins, N., and Ervin, B., Wind Energy Handbook, John Wiley & Sons, 2001.
27. Simonoff, J., Smoothing Methods in Statistics, Springer, 2nd ed., 1996.
28. Rosenblatt, M., "Remarks on Some Nonparametric Estimates of a Density Function," The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 27, No. 3, 1956, pp. 832-837.
29. Parzen, E., "On Estimation of a Probability Density Function and Mode," The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 33, No. 3, 1962, pp. 1065-1076.
30. Vega, R. E., Wind directionality: A Reliability-Based Approach, Ph.D. thesis, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, August 2008.
31. Kusiak, A. and Zheng, H., "Optimization of Wind Turbine Energy and Power Factor with an Evolutionary Computation Algorithm," Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 3, March 2010, pp. 1324-1332.
32. Sobol, M., "Uniformly distributed sequences with an additional uniform property," USSR Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics, Vol. 16, 1976, pp. 236-242.
33. NDAWN, "The North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network," 2010, http://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/.
34. Ochoal, B. and Belongie, S., "Covariance Propagation for Guided Matching," Tech. rep., University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
35. Lindberg, V., Vern Lindberg's Guide to Uncertainties and Error Propagation, Rochester Institute of Technology, July 1999.