A stochastic earthquake ground-motion prediction model for the United Kingdom

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Volumn 103, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 57-77

  Rietbrock, Andreas ^a   Strasser, Fleur ^b   Edwards, Benjamin ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^b Western Cape Regional Office   (South Africa)

^c ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ENGINEERED STRUCTURES; GROUND MOTION PREDICTION; GROUND-MOTION PREDICTION EQUATIONS; GROUND-MOTION PREDICTION MODELS; PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION; PEAK GROUND VELOCITY; PSEUDOSPECTRAL; SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS; STABLE CONTINENTAL REGIONS; UNITED KINGDOM;

EQUATIONS OF MOTION; FORECASTING; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS;

EARTHQUAKES;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; GROUND MOTION; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; MODELING; SEISMIC HAZARD; SEISMICITY; STOCHASTICITY;

UNITED KINGDOM;

SUGARCANE RAMU STUNT DISEASE PHYTOPLASMA;

EID: 84872343373     PISSN: 00371106     EISSN: 19433573     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/0120110231     Document Type: Article

References (93)

1. Abercrombie, R. E. (1995). Earthquake source scaling relationships from -1 to 5 ML using seismograms recorded at 2.5-km depth, J. Geophys. Res. 100, no. B12, 24,015-24,036.
2. Abrahamson, N., G. Atkinson, D. Boore, Y. Bozorgnia, K. Campbell, B. Chiou, I. M. Idriss, W. Silva, and R. Youngs (2008). Comparisons of the NGA ground-motion relations, Earthq. Spectra 24, 45-66.
3. Akkar, S., and J. J. Bommer (2007a). Prediction of elastic displacement response spectra in Europe and the Middle East, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dynam. 36, no. 10, 1275-1301.
4. Akkar, S., and J. J. Bommer (2007b). Empirical prediction equations for peak ground velocity derived from strong-motion records from Europe and the Middle East, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97, no. 2, 511-530.
5. Akkar, S., and J. J. Bommer (2010). Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, no. 2, 195-206.
6. Al-Atik, L., N. Abrahamson, J. J. Bommer, F. Scherbaum, F. Cotton, and N. Kuehn (2010). The variability of ground-motion prediction models and its components, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, no. 5, 794-801.
7. Allen, T. I., T. Dhu, P. R. Cummins, and J. F. Schneider (2006). Empirical attenuation of ground-motion spectral amplitudes in southwestern Western Australia, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, no. 2, 572-585.
8. Allen, T. I., G. Gibson, A. Brown, and J. P. Cull (2004). Depth variation of seismic source scaling relations: Implications for earthquake hazard in southeastern Australia, Tectonophysics 390, 5-24.
9. Allmann, B. P., and P. M. Shearer (2009). Global variations of stress drop for moderate to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 114, no. B01310, doi: 10.1029/2008JB005821.
10. Ambraseys, N. N., and J. J. Bommer (1991). The attenuation of ground accelerations in Europe, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dynam. 20, no. 12, 1179-1202.
11. Ambraseys, N. N., and M. W. Free (1997). Surface-wave magnitude calibration for European region earthquakes, J. Earthq. Eng. 1, no. 1, 1-22.
12. Ambraseys, N. N., K. A. Simpson, and J. J. Bommer (1996). Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dynam. 25, no. 4, 371-400.
13. Ambraseys, N. N., P. Smit, J. Douglas, B. Margaris, R. Sigbjornsson, S. Olafsson, P. Suhadolc, and G. Costa (2004). Internet site for European strong-motion data, Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata 45, no. 3, 113-129.
14. Anderson, J. G., and S. E. Hough (1984). A model for the shape of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of acceleration at high frequencies, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 74, 1969-1993.
15. Arup, O. (1993). Earthquake Hazard and Risk in the UK, Department of the Environment, HMSO Publications, London.
16. Atkinson, G. M. (2004). Empirical attenuation of ground-motion spectral amplitudes in southeastern Canada and the northeastern United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, no. 3, 1079-1095.
17. Atkinson, G. M., and K. Assatourians (2010). Attenuation and source characteristics of the June 23, 2010 M 5.0 Val-des-Bois, Quebec earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, no. 5, 849-860.
18. Atkinson, G. M., and D. M. Boore (2006). Earthquake ground-motion prediction equations for Eastern North America, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, no. 6, 2181-2205 (erratum 97, no. 3, 1032).
19. Atkinson, G. M., and W. Silva (2000). Stochastic modelling of Californian Ground motions, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, no. 2, 255-274.
20. Atkinson, G. M., K. Assatourians, D. M. Boore, K. Campbell, and D. Motazedian (2009). A guide to differences between stochastic point-source and stochastic finite-dault simulations, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 3192-3201.
21. Baptie, B. (2002). Seismogenesis and state of stress in the UK from obser- vations of seismicity, SECED Newsl. 16, no. 2, 5-7.
22. Baptie, B. (2010). Seismogenesis and state of stress in the UK, Tectonophy-sics 482, 150-159.
23. Berger, N. (1994). Attenuation of seismic ground motion due to the 1992 Roermond earthquake, the Netherlands, Geol. Mijnbouw 73, 309-313.
24. Beyer, K, and J. J. Bommer (2006). Relationships between median values and between aleatory variabilities for different definitions of the horizontal component of motion, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am 96, no. 4, 1512-1522.
25. Bommer, J. J., J. Douglas, and F. O. Strasser (2003). Style-of-faulting in ground-motion prediction equations, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 1, no. 2, 171-203.
26. Bommer, J. J., M. Papaspiliou, and W. Price (2011). Earthquake response spectra for seismic design of nuclear power plants in the UK, Nucl. Eng. Des. 241, no. 3, 968-977.
27. Bommer, J. J., F. Scherbaum, H. Bungum, F Cotton, F. Sabetta, and N. Abrahamson (2005). On the use of logic-trees for ground-motion prediction equations in seismic-hazard analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, no. 2, 377-389.
28. Bommer, J. J., P. J. Stafford, J. E. Alarcón, and S. Akkar (2007). The influence of magnitude range on empirical ground-motion prediction, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97, no. 6, 2152-2170.
29. Boore, D. M. (1983). Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 73, no. 4, 1865-1894.
30. Boore, D. M. (2003). Prediction of ground motion using the stochastic method, Pure Appl. Geophys 160, 635-676.
31. Boore, D. M. (2009). Comparing stochastic point-source and finite-source ground-motion simulations: SMSIM and EXSIM, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 3202-3216.
32. Boore, D. M., and W. B. Joyner (1997). Site amplifications for generic rock sites, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, no. 2, 327-341.
33. Boore, D. M., W. B. Joyner, and L. Wennerberg (1992). Fitting the stochastic u-2 source model to observed response spectra in western North America: Trade-offs between Act and re, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 82, 1956-1963.
34. Booth, D. C. (2007). An improved UK local magnitude scale from analysis of shear and Lg-wave amplitudes, Geophys. J. Int. 169, 593-601.
35. Braunmiller, J., T Dahm, and K.P Bonjer (1994). Source mechanism of the 1992 Roermond earthquake from surface-wave inversion of regional data, Geophys. J. Int. 116, no. 3, 663-672.
36. Brune, J. N. (1970). Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 75, 4997-5009.
37. Brune, J. N. (1971). Correction: Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 76, 5002.
38. Bungum, H., C. D. Lindholm, A. Dahle, G. Woo, F. Nadim, J. K. Holme, O. T. Gudmestad, T. Hagberg, and K. Karthigeyan (2000). New seismic zoning maps for Norway, the North Sea, and the United Kingdom, Seismol. Res. Lett. 71, no. 6, 687-697.
39. Bungum, H., S. Vaage, and E. S. Husebye (1982). The Meløy earthquake sequence, northern Norway: Source parameters and their scaling relations, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, no. 1, 197-206.
40. Campbell, K. W., and Y. Bozorgnia (2006). Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectra ground motion parameters, Interim Report for USGS review, October 2006, 113 pp.
41. Choi, Y., and J. Stewart (2005). Nonlinear site amplification as a function of 30 m shear wave velocity, Earthq. Spectra 21, no. 1, 1-30.
42. Cotton, F., F. Scherbaum, J. J. Bommer, and H. Bungum (2006). Criteria for selecting and adjusting ground-motion models for specific target regions: Application to Central Europe and rock sites, J. Seismol. 10, 137-156.
43. Dahle, A., H. Bungum, and L. B. Kvamme (1990). Attenuation models inferred from intraplate earthquake recordings, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dynam. 19, 1125-1141.
44. Dahle, A., H. Bungum, and L. B. Kvamme (1991). Empirically derived PSV spectral attenuation models for intraplate conditions, Eur. Earthq. Eng. 3, no. 1, 42-52.
45. Edwards, B., and A. Rietbrock (2009). A comparative study on attenuation and source-scaling relations in the Kanto, Tokai, and Chubu regions of Japan, using data from Hi-Net and KiK-Net, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, no. 4, 2435-2460.
46. Edwards, B., D. Fäh, and D. Giardini (2011). Attenuation of seismic shear wave energy in Switzerland, Geophys. J. Int. 185, 967-984.
47. Edwards, B., A. Rietbrock, J. J. Bommer, and B. Baptie (2008). The acquis- ition of source, path, and site effects from microearthquake recordings using Q tomography: Application to the United Kingdom, Bull. Seis- mol. Soc. Am. 98, no. 4, 1915-1935.
48. Free, M. W., N. N. Ambraseys, and S. K. Sarma (1998). Earthquake ground- motion attenuation relations for stable continental intraplate regions, ESEE Report 98-1, Department of Civil Engineering, Imperial College, London, 36 pp.
49. Grünthal, G., R. Wahlström, and D. Stromeyer (2009). The unified cata- logue of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe (CENEC)-Updated and expanded to the last millennium, J. Seismol. 13, no. 4, 517-541.
50. Hanks, T, and H. Kanamori (1979). A moment magnitude scale, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2348-2350.
51. Hough, S. E. (1996). Observational constraints on earthquake source scaling: Understanding the limits in resolution, Tectonophysics 261, 83-95.
52. Hwang, H. H. M., H. Lin, and J.-R. Huo (1997). Site coefficients for design of buildings in eastern United States, Soil Dynam. Earthq. Eng. 16, 29-40.
53. Ide, S., and G. C. Beroza (2001). Does apparent stress vary with size? Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, no. 17, 3349-3352.
54. Johnston, A. C, K. J. Coppersmith, L. R. Kanter, and C. A. Cornell (1994). The Earthquakes of Stable Continental Regions, Final Report submitted to Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), TR-102261.
55. Joyner, W. B., and D. M. Boore (1981). Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 71, 2011-2038.
56. Kanamori, H., and D. L. Anderson (1975). Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 65, no. 5, 1073-1095.
57. Kim, W.-Y, R. Wahlström, and M. Uski (1989). Regional spectral scaling relations of source parameters for earthquakes in the Baltic Shield, Tectonophysics 166, 151-161.
58. Liang, J. Z., H. Hao, B. A. Gaull, and C. Sinadinovski (2008). Estimation of strong ground motions in southwest Western Australia with a combined Green's function and stochastic approach, J. Earthq. Eng. 12, no. 3, 382-405.
59. Lubkowski, Z., J. Bommer, B. Baptie, J. Bird, J. Douglas, M. Free, J. Hancock, S. Sargeant, N. Sartain, and F. Strasser (2004). An evaluation of attenuation relationships for seismic hazard assessment in the UK, in Proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, Paper no. 1422.
60. Madariaga, R. (1976). Dynamics of an expanding circular fault, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 66, no. 3, 639-666.
61. Mai, P. M., P. Spudich, and J. Boatwright (2005). Hypocenter locations in finite source rupture models, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, no. 3, 965-980.
62. Main, I., D. Irving, R. Musson, and A. Reading (1999). Constraints on the frequency-magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates, Geophys. J. Int. 137, 535-550.
63. Mayeda, K., and W. R. Walter (1996). Moment, energy, stress drop, and source spectra of western United States earthquakes from regional coda envelopes, J. Geophys. Res. 101, no. B5, 11,195-11,208.
64. Motazedian, D., and G. M. Atkinson (2005). Stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 995-1010.
65. Musson, R. M. W. (1996). The seismicity of the British Isles, Ann. Geofisc. 39, no. 3, 463-469.
66. Musson, R. M. W. (2007). British earthquakes, Proc. Geologists' Assoc. 118, 305-337.
67. Musson, R. M. W. (2008). The case for large (M > 7) earthquakes felt in the UK in historical times, in Historical Seismology, J. Fréchet, M. Meghraoui, and M. Stucchi (Editors), Springer, 187-207.
68. Musson, R. M. W., and S. L. Sargeant (2007). Eurocode 8 seismic hazard zoning maps for the UK, Seismology and Geomagnetism Programme Technical Report CR/07/125, British Geological Survey, 70 pp.
69. Musson, R. M. W., and P. W. Winter (1996). Seismic hazard maps for the UK, Nat. Hazards 14, nos. 2-3, 141-154.
70. Musson, R. M. W., P. C. Marrow, and P. W. Winter (1994). Attenuation of earthquake ground motion in the UK, Report AEA/CS/16422000/ ZJ745/004, AEA Technology Consultancy Services, 30 pp.
71. Ottemöller, L., and S. Sargeant (2010). Ground-motion difference between two moderate-size intraplate earthquakes in the United Kingdom, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 100, no. 4, 1823-1829.
72. Ottemöller, L., B. Baptie, and N. J. P. Smith (2009). Source parameters for the 28 April 2007 Mw 4.0 earthquake in Folkestone, United Kingdom, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, no. 3, 1853-1867.
73. PML. (1982). British earthquakes, Technical Report 115/82, Principia Mechanica Ltd., London.
74. PML. (1985). Seismological studies for UK hazard analysis, Technical Report 346/85, Principia Mechanica Ltd., London.
75. PML. (1988). UK uniform risk spectra, Report number HPC-IP-096013, Principia Mechanica Ltd., Cambridge.
76. Poggi, V., B. Edwards, and D. Fah (2011). Derivation of a reference shear- wave velocity model from empirical site amplification, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 258-274.
77. Press, W. H., S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery (1997). Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing, Second Ed., Cambridge University, New York, 278-281, 288-290, 417-424, and 515-518.
78. Raghu Kanth, S. T. G., and R. N. Iyengar (2007). Estimation of seismic spectral acceleration in Peninsular India, J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, no. 3, 199-214.
79. Rietbrock, A. (2001). P wave attenuation structure in the fault area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 4141-4154.
80. Sargeant, S. L., P. J. Stafford, R. Lawley, G. Weatherill, A.-J. S. Weston, J. J. Bommer, P. W. Burton, M. Free, R. M. W. Musson, T. Kuuyuor, and T. Rossetto (2008). Observations from the Folkestone, U.K., earth- quake of 28 April 2007, Seismol. Res. Lett. 79, no. 5, 672-687.
81. Scherbaum, F., and D. Stoll (1983). Source parameters and scaling laws of the 1978 Swabian Jura (Southwest Germany) aftershocks, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 73, no. 5, 1321-1343.
82. Scherbaum, F., J. Schmedes, and F. Cotton (2004). On the conversion of source-to-site distance measures for extended earthquake source models, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, no. 3, 1053-1069.
83. Shaw, B. A. (2009). Constant stress drop from small to great earthquakes in magnitude-area scaling, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, no. 2A, 871-875.
84. Shi, J., W.-Y. Kim, and P. G. Richards (1998). The corner frequencies and stress drops of intraplate earthquakes in the northeastern United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 88, no. 2, 531-542.
85. Silva, W., R. Darragh, N. Gregor, G. Martin, N. Abrahamson, and C. Kircher (1998). Reassessment of site coefficients and near-fault factors for building code provisions, Technical Report Program Element II: 98- HQGR-1010, Pacific Engineering and Analysis, El Cerrito, California.
86. Silva, W., N. Gregor, and R. Darragh (2002). Development of regional hard rock attenuation relations for Central and Eastern North America. Technical Report, Pacific Engineering and Analysis, El Cerrito, California, 57 pp.
87. Stafford, P. J., F. O. Strasser, and J. J. Bommer (2008). An evaluation of the applicability of the NGA models to ground-motion prediction in the Euro-Mediterranean region, Bull. Earthq. Eng. 6, no. 2, 149-177.
88. Strasser, F. O., N. A. Abrahamson, and J. J. Bommer (2009). Sigma: In- sights, issues, and challenges, Seismol. Res. Lett. 80, no. 1, 40-56.
89. Toro, G. R. (2002). Modification of the Toro et al. (1997) attenuation equations for large magnitudes and short distances, Technical Note, 12 June 2002, Risk Engineering Inc.
90. Toro, G. R., N. A. Abrahamson, and J. F. Schneider (1997). Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: Best estimates and uncertainties, Seismol. Res. Lett. 68, no. 1, 41-57.
91. Van Houtte, C., S. Drouet, and F. Cotton (2011). Analysis of the origins of k (kappa) to compute hard rock to rock adjustment factors for GMPEs, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, no. 6, 2926-2941.
92. Wells, D. L., and K. J. Coppersmith (1994). New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and sur- face displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, no. 4, 974-1002.
93. Zobin, V. M., and J. Havskov (1995). Source spectral properties of small earthquakes in the northern North Sea, Tectonophysics 248, nos. 3-4, 207-218.