Challenges in modelling the abundance of 105 tree species in eastern North America using climate, edaphic, and topographic variables

Forest Ecology and Management

Volumn 291, Issue , 2013, Pages 20-29

  Chambers, Dominic ^a   Périé, Catherine ^b   Casajus, Nicolas ^c   de Blois, Sylvie ^a  

^a MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b MINISTÈRE DES RESSOURCES NATURELLES ET DE LA FAUNE   (Canada)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À RIMOUSKI   (Canada)

Author keywords

Climate change; Eastern North America; Predictive performance; Random Forest; Species abundance model; Temperate and boreal forests

Indexed keywords

BOREAL FORESTS; EASTERN NORTH AMERICA; PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE; RANDOM FORESTS; SPECIES ABUNDANCE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; CONSERVATION; DECISION TREES; FORECASTING; FORESTRY; VEGETATION;

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION;

BIOGEOGRAPHICAL REGION; CLIMATE MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; FOREST MANAGEMENT; RELATIVE ABUNDANCE; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; STATISTICAL DATA; TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECT; TREE PLANTING;

CLIMATES; CONSERVATION; DECISION MAKING; FORECASTS; FORESTRY; MODELS; PLANTS; RANDOM PROCESSES; SPECIES IDENTIFICATION; TREES;

NORTH AMERICA;

ACER; ACER BARBATUM; CASTANEA DENTATA; PICEA MARIANA;

EID: 84871887429     PISSN: 03781127     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.046     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Anadón J.D., Gimenez A., Ballestar R. Linking local ecological knowledge and habitat modelling to predict absolute species abundance on large scales. Biodivers. Conserv. 2010, 19:1443-1454.
2. Araújo M.B., Cabeza M., Thuiller W., Hannah L., Williams P.H. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biol. 2004, 10:1618-1626.
3. Araújo M.B., New M. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2007, 22:42-47.
4. Attorre F., Francesconi F., Scarnati L., De Sanctis M., Alfò M., Bruno F. Predicting the effect of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution at a regional scale. iForest - Biogeosci. Forestry 2008, 1:132-139.
5. Berteaux D., de Blois S., Angers J.F., Bonin J., Casajus N., Darveau M., Fournier F., Humphries M.M., McGill B.J., Larivée J., Logan T., Nantel P., Périé C., Poisson F., Rodrigue D., Rouleau S., Siron R., Thuiller W., Vescovi L. The CC-Bio project: studying the effects of climate change on Québec biodiversity. Diversity 2010, 2:1181-1204.
6. Breiman L. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 2001, 45:5-32.
7. Brotons L., Thuiller W., Araújo M.B., Hirzel A.H. Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability. Ecography 2004, 27:437-448.
8. Buisson L., Thuiller W., Casajus N., Lek S., Grenouillet G. Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution. Global Change Biol. 2010, 16:1145-1157.
9. Burns, R., Honkala, B.H. (tech. Coords.), 1990. Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers; 2. Hardwoods. Agriculture Handbook 654, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, D.C. vol. 2, pp. 877.
10. Canadian Council on Geomatics., 2003. Canadian geographical names. Government of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Earth sciences sector, Geomatics Canada, center for topographic information, geographical names section, Ottawa, ON, http://www.geobase.ca/geobase/en/data/cded/index.html.
11. Canham C.D., Thomas R.Q. Frequency, not relative abundance, of temperate tree species varies along climate gradients in eastern North America. Ecology 2010, 91:3433-3440.
12. Clark J.S., Bell D.M., Hersh M.H., Nichols L. Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates. Global Change Biol. 2011, 17:1834-1849.
13. Gaston K.J. Global patterns in biodiversity. Nature 2000, 405:220-227.
14. Gunderson C.A., Edwards N.T., Walker A.V., O'Hara K.H., Campion M., Hanson P.J. Forest phenology and a warmer climate - growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance. Global Change Biol. 2012, 18:2008-2025.
15. Hanspach J., Kühn I., Schweiger O., Pompe S., Klotz S. Geographical patterns in prediction errors of species distribution models. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2011, 20:779-788.
16. Hu J., Hu H., Jiang Z.G. The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird. Oecologia 2010, 164:555-565.
17. Huntley B., Altwegg R., Barnard P., Collingham Y.C., Hole D.G. Modelling relationships between species spatial abundance patterns and climate. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2011, 20:744-754.
18. Iverson L.R., Prasad A.M. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecol. Monogr. 1998, 68:465-485.
19. Iverson L.R., Prasad A.M., Matthews S.N., Peters M. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecol. Manage. 2008, 254:390-406.
20. Kampichler C., Wieland R., Calmé S., Weissenberger H., Arriaga-Weiss S. Classification in conservation biology: a comparison of five machine-learning methods. Ecol. Infor. 2010, 5:441-450.
21. Kissling D.W., Gudrum C. Spatial autocorrelation and the selection of simultaneous autoregressive models. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2008, 20:779-788.
22. Lawler J.J., Shafer S.L., Blaustein A.R. Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere. Conserv. Biol. 2010, 24:38-50.
23. Legendre P. Spatial autocorrelation - trouble or new paradigm. Ecology 1993, 74:1659-1673.
24. Legendre P., Legendre L. Numerical Ecology 1998, Elsevier, Amsterdam, New York, NY.
25. Luoto M., Poyry J., Heikkinen R.K., Saarinen K. Uncertainty of bioclimate envelope models based on the geographical distribution of species. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2005, 14:575-584.
26. Magurran A.E. Measuring Biological Diversity 2004, Blackwell Scientific, Oxford.
27. Marmion M., Luoto M., Heikkinen R.K., Thuiller W. The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species. Ecol. Model. 2009, 220:3512-3520.
28. McKenney D.W., Pedlar J.H., Lawrence K., Campbell K., Hutchinson M.F. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. Bioscience 2007, 57:939-948.
29. McKenney D.W., Pedlar J.H., Rood R.B., Price D. Revisiting projected shifts in the climate envelopes of North American trees using updated general circulation models. Global Change Biol. 2011, 17:2720-2730.
30. McGill B.J., Etienne R.S., Gray J.S., Alonso D., Anderson M.J., Benecha H.K., Dornelas M., Enquist B.J., Green J.L., He F., Hurlbert A.H., Magurran A.E., Marquet P.A., Maurer B.A., Ostling A., Soykan C.U., Ugland K.I., White E.P. Species abundance distributions: moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework. Ecol. Lett. 2007, 10:995-1015.
31. McMahon S.M., Harrison S.P., Armbruster W.S., Bartlein P.J., Beale C.M., Edwards M.E., Kattge J., Midgley G., Morin X., Prentice I.C. Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2011, 26:249-259.
32. Meier E.S., Edwards T.C., Kienast F., Dobbertin M., Zimmermann N.E. Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L. J. Biogeogr. 2011, 38:371-382.
33. Millar C.I., Stephenson N.L., Stephens S.L. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol. Appl. 2007, 17:2145-2151.
34. Morin X., Lechowicz M. Geographical and ecological patterns of range size in North American trees. Ecography 2011, 34:738-750.
35. Murphy H.T., VanDerWal J., Lovett-Doust J. Distribution of abundance across the range in eastern North American trees. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2006, 15:63-71.
36. Murphy H.T., VanDerWal J., Lovett-Doust J. Signatures of range expansion and erosion in eastern North American trees. Ecol. Lett. 2010, 13:1233-1244.
37. Pearce J., Ferrier S. The practical value of modelling relative abundance of species for regional conservation planning: a case study. Biol. Conserv. 2001, 98:33-43.
38. Prasad, A.M., Iverson, L.R., 2003. Little's Range and FIA Importance Value Database for 135 eastern US Tree Species. in Northeastern Research Station, editor. USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH, http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/4153/global/littlefia/index.html.
39. Prasad A.M., Iverson L.R., Liaw A. Newer classification and regression tree techniques: bagging and random forests for ecological prediction. Ecosystems 2006, 9:181-199.
40. Purves D.W. The demography of range boundaries versus range cores in eastern US tree species. Proc. Royal Soc. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 2009, 276:1477-1484.
41. R Development Core Team, 2009. A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R. Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://cran.r-project.org.
42. Rehfeldt, G.E., 2006. A Spline Model of Climate for the Western United States. General technical report RMRS-GTR-165, US. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO.
43. Sagarin R.D., Gaines S.D., Gaylord B. Moving beyond assumptions to understand abundance distributions across the ranges of species. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2006, 21:524-530.
44. Segurado P., Araújo M.B., Kunin W.E. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models. J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43:433-444.
45. Stegen J.C., Swenson N.G., Enquist B.J., White E.P., Phillips O.L., Jørgensen P.M., Weiser M.D., Monteagudo A., Vargas P.N. Variation in above-ground forest biomass across broad climatic gradients. Global Ecol. Biogeogr 2011, 20:744-754.
46. Syphard A.D., Franklin J. Species traits affect the performance of species distribution models for plants in Southern California. J. Veg. Sci. 2010, 21:177-189.
47. Thuiller W. BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biol. 2003, 9:1353-1362.
48. USDA Forest Service, 2010. Moscow Forestry Sciences Laboratory. Moscow Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Moscow, ID, http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/.
49. USGS, 2010. USGS Geographic Data Download. United States Geological Survey, Reston, VA, (data available in September 2012 at http://datagateway.nrcs.usda.gov/). http://edc2.usgs.gov/geodata/index.php.
50. VanDerWal J., Shoo L.P., Johnson C.N., Williams S.E. Abundance and the environmental niche: environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance. Am. Nat. 2009, 174:282-291.
51. Whitton F.J.S., Purvis A., David C., Orme L., Olalla-Tárraga M.A. Understanding global patterns in amphibian geographic range size: does Rapoport rule?. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 21:179-190.
52. Willig M.R., Kaufman D.M., Stevens R.D. Latitudinal gradients of biodiversity: pattern, process, scale, and synthesis. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2003, 34:273-309.
53. Wulder M., Boots B. Local spatial autocorrelation characteristics of remotely sensed imagery assessed with the Getis statistic. Int. J. Remot. Sens. 1998, 19:2223-2231.