Landscape epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases in natural and human-altered ecosystems

Annual Review of Phytopathology

Volumn 50, Issue , 2012, Pages 379-402

  Meentemeyer, Ross K ^a   Haas, Sarah E ^a   Václavík, Tomáš ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE   (United States)

^b HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^c PALACKÝ UNIVERSITY   (Czech Republic)

Author keywords

connectivity; disease control; dynamic model; invasive species; multiscale; species distribution model

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ANIMAL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOLOGY; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHY; HUMAN; INTRODUCED SPECIES; MICROBIOLOGY; PARASITOLOGY; PLANT; PLANT DISEASE; REVIEW; STATISTICS;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMALS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOLOGY; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; INTRODUCED SPECIES; PLANT DISEASES; PLANTS;

EID: 84870788663     PISSN: 00664286     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-phyto-081211-172938     Document Type: Review

References (112)

1. Adriaensen F, Chardon JP,De Blust G, Swinnen E, Villalba S, et al. 2003. The application of "least-cost" modelling as a functional landscape model. Landsc. Urban Plan. 64:233-47
2. Altizer S, Dobson A, Hosseini P, Hudson P, Pascual M, Rohani P. 2006. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious disease. Ecol. Lett. 9:467-84
3. Anacker BL, Rank NE, Huberli D, Garbelotto M, Gordon S, et al. 2008. Susceptibility to Phytophthora ramorum in a key infectious host: landscape variation in host genotype, host phenotype, and environmental factors. New Phytol. 177:756-66
4. Anderson PK,Cunningham AA, PatelNG, Morales FJ, Epstein PR,Daszak P. 2004. Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers. Trends Ecol. Evol. 19:535-44
5. Anderson RM, May RM. 1992. Infectious Diseases of Humans. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
6. Austin MP, Belbin L, Meyers JA, Doherty MD, Luoto M. 2006. Evaluation of statistical models used for predicting plant species distributions: role of artificial data and theory. Ecol. Model. 199:197-216
7. Biek R, Real LA. 2010. The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread. Mol. Ecol. 19:3515-31
8. Blanchong JA, Samuel MD, Scribner KT, Weckworth BV, Langenberg JA, Filcek KB. 2008. Landscape genetics and the spatial distribution of chronic wasting disease. Biol. Lett. 4:130-33
9. Brasier CM, Webber J. 2010. Sudden larch death. Nature 466:824-25
10. Burdon JJ, Jarosz AM, Kirby GC. 1989. Pattern and patchiness in plant-pathogen interactions: causes and consequences. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 20:119-36
11. Calabrese JM, Fagan WF. 2004. A comparison shoppers' guide to connectivity metrics: trading off between data requirements and information content. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2:529-36
12. Clark JS. 2007. Models for Ecological Data. Princeton, NJ: Princet. Univ. Press
13. Condeso TE, Meentemeyer RK. 2007. Effects of landscape heterogeneity on the emerging forest disease sudden oak death. J. Ecol. 95:364-75
14. Cushman JH, Meentemeyer RK. 2008. Multi-scale patterns of human activity and the incidence of an exotic forest pathogen. J. Ecol. 96:766-76
15. Davidson JM, Patterson HA,Wickland AC, Fichtner EJ, Rizzo DM. 2011. Forest type influences transmission of Phytophthora ramorum in California oak woodlands. Phytopathology 101:492-501
16. Davidson JM, Wickland AC, Patterson HA, Falk KR, Rizzo DM. 2005. Transmission of Phytophthora ramorum in mixed-evergreen forest in California. Phytopathology 95:587-96
17. Davis FW, Borchert M, Meentemeyer RK, Flint A, Rizzo DM. 2010. Pre-impact forest composition and ongoing tree mortality associated with sudden oak death in the Big Sur region; California. For. Ecol. Manag. 259:2342-54
18. Dobson A, Foufopoulos J. 2001. Emerging infectious pathogens of wildlife. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 356:1001-12
19. Dormann CF. 2007. Effects of incorporating spatial autocorrelaton into the analysis of species distribution data. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16:129-38
20. Dungan JL, Perry JN, Dale MRT, Legendre P, Citron-Pousty S, et al. 2002. A balanced view of scale in spatial statistical analysis. Ecography 25:626-40
21. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, DudikM, Ferrier S, et al. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-51
22. Elith J, Leathwick JR. 2009. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 40:677-97
23. Ellis AM, Václavk T, Meentemeyer RK. 2010. When is connectivity important? A case study of the spatial pattern of sudden oak death. Oikos 119:485-93
24. Ellison AM, Bank MS, Clinton BD, Colburn EA, Elliot K, et al. 2005. Loss of foundation species: consequences for the structure and dynamics of forested ecosystems. Front. Ecol. Environ. 3:479-86
25. Fabiszewski AM, Umbanhowar J, Mitchell CE. 2010. Modeling landscape-scale pathogen spillover between domesticated and wild hosts: Asian soybean rust and kudzu. Ecol. Appl. 20:582-92
26. Farnsworth ML, Hoeting JA, Hobbs NT, Miller MW. 2006. Linking chronic wasting disease to mule deer movement scales: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Ecol. Appl. 16:1026-36
27. Filipe JAN, Cobb RC, Meentemeyer RK, Lee CA, Valachovik YS, et al. 2012. Landscape epidemiology and control of pathogens with cryptic and long-distance dispersal: sudden oak death in northern Californian forests. PLoS Comput. Biol 8:e1002328
28. Fitzpatrick MC, Preisser EL, Porter A, Elkinton J, Ellison AM. 2012. Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America. Ecol. Appl. 22:472-86
29. Franklin J. 1995. Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Prog. Phys. Geog. 19:474-99
30. Gahl MK, Calhoun AJK. 2008. Landscape setting and risk of Ranavirus mortality events. Biol. Conserv. 141:2679-89
31. Garnas JR, Ayres MP, Liebhold AM, Evans C. 2011. Subcontinental impacts of an invasive tree disease on forest structure and dynamics. J. Ecol. 99:532-41
32. Gilbert GS. 2002. Evolutionary ecology of plant diseases in natural ecosystems. Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 40:13-43
33. Gilligan CA. 2008. Sustainable agriculture and plant diseases: an epidemiological perspective. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 363:741-59
34. Gilligan CA, van den Bosch F. 2008. Epidemiological models for invasion and persistence of pathogens. Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 46:385-418
35. Haas SE, Hooten MB, Rizzo DM, Meentemyer RK. 2011. Forest species diversity reduces disease risk in a generalist plant pathogen invasion. Ecol. Lett. 14:1108-16
36. Haight RG, Homans FR, Horie T, Mehta SV, Smith DJ, Venette RC. 2011. Assessing the cost of an invasive forest pathogen: a case study with oak wilt. Environ. Manag. 47:506-17
37. Hanks EM, Hooten MB, Baker FA. 2011. Reconciling multiple data sources to improve accuracy of large-scale prediction of forest disease incidence. Ecol. Appl. 21:1173-88
38. Hansen EM, Kanaskie A, Prospero S, McWilliams M, Goheen EM, et al. 2008. Epidemiology of Phytophthora ramorum in Oregon tanoak forests. Can. J. For. Res. 38:1133-43
39. Harwood TD, Xu X, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ, Shaw MW. 2009. Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK. Ecol. Model. 220:3353-61
40. Hatala JA, Dietze MC, Crabtree RL, Kendall K, Six D,Moorcroft PR. 2011. An ecosystem-scale model for the spread of a host-specific forest pathogen in the greaterYellowstone ecosystem. Ecol. Appl. 21:1138-53
41. Hess GR. 2002. Conservation corridors and contagious disease: a cautionary note. Conserv. Biol. 8:256-62
42. Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ, Lonsdale D. 2004. Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends Ecol. Evol. 19:446-52
43. Holland JD, Bert DG, Fahrig L. 2004. Determining the spatial scale of species response to habitat. Bioscience 54:227-33
44. Huberli D, Hayden KJ, Calver M, Garbelotto M. 2012. Intraspecific variation in host susceptibility and climatic factors mediate epidemics of sudden oak death in western US forests. Plant Pathol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3059. 2011.02535.x
45. Hunter RD, Meentemeyer RK. 2005. Climatologically aided mapping of daily precipitation and temperature. J. Appl. Meteorol. 44:1501-10
46. Ioos R, Husson C, Andrieux A, Frey P. 2005. SCAR-based PCR primers to detect the hybrid pathogen Phytophthora alni and its subspecies causing alder disease in Europe. Eur. J. Entomol. 112:323-35
47. Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O, Shaw MW. 2007. Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytol. 174:279-97
48. Jelinski DE, Wu J. 1996. The modifiable areal unit problem and implications for landscape ecology. Landsc. Ecol. 11:129-40
49. Jimenez-Valverde A, Peterson AT, Soberon J, Overton JM, Aragon P, Lobo JM. 2011. Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments. Biol. Invasions 13:2785-97
50. Johnson BL, Haddad NM. 2011. Edge effects, not connectivity, determine the incidence and development of a foliar fungal plant disease. Ecology 92:1551-58
51. Jones RAC. 2009. Plant virus emergence and evolution: origins, new encounter scenarios, factors driving emergence, effects of changing world conditions, and prospects for control. Virus Res. 141:113-30
52. Jules ES, Kauffman MJ, Ritts WD, Carroll AL. 2002. Spread of an invasive pathogen over a variable landscape: a nonnative root rot on Port Orford cedar. Ecology 83:3167-81
53. Kauffman MJ, Jules ES. 2006. Heterogeneity shapes invasion: host size and environment influence susceptibility to a nonnative pathogen. Ecol. Appl. 16:166-75
54. Keesing F, Holt RD, Ostfeld RS. 2006. Effects of species diversity on disease risk. Ecol. Lett. 9:485-98
55. Kelly M, Meentemeyer RK. 2002. Landscape dynamics of the spread of sudden oak death. Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sens. 68:1001-9
56. Kindlmann P, Burel F. 2008. Connectivity measures: a review. Landsc. Ecol. 23:879-90
57. Kinloch BB. 2003. White pine blister rust inNorth America: past and prognosis. Phytopathology 93:1044-47
58. Kitron U. 1998. Landscape ecology and epidemiology of vector-borne diseases: tools for spatial analysis. J. Med. Entomol. 35:435-45
59. La Manna L, Matteucci SD, Kitzberger T. 2008. Abiotic factors related to the incidence of the Austrocedrus chilensis disease syndrome at a landscape scale. For. Ecol. Manag. 256:1087-95
60. Laine AL, Hanski I. 2006. Large-scale spatial dynamics of a specialist plant pathogen in a fragmented landscape. J. Ecol. 94:217-26
61. LaPointe DA. 2008. Dispersal of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera:Culicidae) in a Hawaiian rain forest. J. Med. Entomol. 45:600-9
62. Levin SA. 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology 73:1943-67
63. Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, AlbertiM, Folke C, et al. 2007. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317:1513-16
64. Lovett GM, Canham CD, Arthur MA,Weathers KC, Fitzhugh RD. 2006. Forest ecosystem responses to exotic pests and pathogens in eastern North America. BioScience 56:395-405
65. Mack RN, Simberloff D, Lonsdale WM, Evans H, Clout M, Bazzaz FA. 2000. Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol. Appl. 10:689-710
66. Madden LV, Hughes G, van den Bosch F. 2007. Spatial aspects of epidemics. II. A theory of spatiotemporal disease dynamics. In The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics, ed. LV Madden, G Hughes, F van den Bosch, pp. 211-33. St. Paul, MN: APS Press
67. Mascheretti S, Croucher PJ, Vettraino A, Prospero S,Garbelotto M. 2008. Reconstruction of the sudden oak death epidemic in California through microsatellite analysis of the pathogen Phytophthora ramorum. Mol. Ecol. 17:2755-68
68. Matthews L, Haydon D. 2007. Cross-scale influences on epidemiological dynamics: from genes to ecosystems. J. R. Soc. Interface 4:763-65
69. McCartney HA, Fitt BDL, West JS. 2006. Dispersal of foliar plant pathogens: mechanisms, gradients and spatial patterns. In The Epidemiology of Plant Diseases, ed. BM Cooke, DG Jones, B Kaye, pp. 159-92. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer
70. Meentemeyer RK, Anacker BL, Mark W, Rizzo DM. 2008. Early detection of emerging forest disease using dispersal estimation and ecological niche modeling. Ecol. Appl. 18:377-90
71. Meentemeyer RK, Cunniffe NJ, Cook AR, Filipe JAN, Hunter RD, et al. 2011. Epidemiological modeling of invasion in heterogeneous landscapes: spread of sudden oak death in California (1990-2030). Ecosphere 2(2):17
72. Meentemeyer RK, Rank NE, Anacker BL, Rizzo DM, Cushman JH. 2008. Influence of land-cover change on the spread of an invasive forest pathogen. Ecol. Appl. 18:159-71
73. Meentemeyer RK, Rank NE, Shoemaker DA, Oneal CB, Wickland AC, et al. 2008. Impact of sudden oak death on tree mortality in the Big Sur ecoregion of California. Biol. Invasions 10:1243-55
74. Meentemeyer RK, Rizzo DM, MarkW, Lotz E. 2004. Mapping the risk of establishment and spread of sudden oak death in California. For. Ecol. Manag. 200:195-214
75. Mennis J. 2010. Multidimensional map algebra: design and implementation of a spatio-temporal GIS processing language. Trans. GIS 14:1-21
76. Metz MR, Frangioso KM,MeentemeyerRK, RizzoDM.2011. Interacting disturbances: wildfire severity affected by stage of forest disease invasion. Ecol. Appl. 21:313-20
77. Minor ES, Urban DL. 2008. A graph-theory framework for evaluating landscape connectivity and conservation planning. Conserv. Biol. 22:297-307
78. Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, et al. 2011. Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries, and continents. Phytopathology 101:392-403
79. Muller MEH, Koszinski S, Brenning A, Verch G, Korn U, Sommer M. 2011. Within-field variation of mycotoxin contamination of winter wheat is related to indicators of soilmoisture. Plant Soil 342:289-300
80. Mundt CC, Sackett KE, Wallace LD. 2011. Landscape heterogeneity and disease spread: experimental approaches with a plant pathogen. Ecol. Appl. 21:321-28
81. Mundt CM, Sackett KE. 2012. Spatial scaling relationships for spread of disease caused by a winddispersed plant pathogen. Ecosphere 3(3):24
82. Nevalainen S. 2002. The incidence of Gremmeniella abietina in relation to topography in southern Finland. Silva Fenn 36:459-73
83. Ostfeld RS, Glass GE, Keesing F. 2005. Spatial epidemiology: an emerging (or re-emerging) discipline. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20:328-36
84. Patz JA, Daszak P, Tabor GM, Aguirre AA, Pearl M, et al. 2004. Unhealthy landscapes: policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence. Environ. Health Perspect. 112:1092-98
85. Pearson RG. 2010. Species' distribution modeling for conservation educators and practioners. Lessons Conserv. Sci. 3:54-89
86. Peters D, Groffman P, Nadelhoffer K, Grimm N, Collins S, et al. 2008. Living in an increasingly connected world: a framework for continental-scale environmental science. Front. Ecol. Environ. 6:229-37
87. Peters D, Herrick J, Urban D, Gardner R, Breshears D. 2004. Strategies for ecological extrapolation. Oikos 106:627-36
88. Plantegenest M, Le May C, Fabre F. 2007. Landscape epidemiology of plant diseases. J. R. Soc. Interface 4:963-72
89. Randolph SE, Green RM, Peacey MF, Rogers DJ. 2000. Seasonal synchrony: the key to tick-borne encephalitis foci identified by satellite data. Parasitology 121:15-23
90. Real LA, Biek R. 2007. Spatial dynamics and genetics of infectious diseases on heterogeneous landscapes. J. R. Soc. Interface 4:935-48
91. Rizzo DM, Garbelotto M, Hansen EM. 2005. Phytophthora ramorum: integrative research and management of an emerging pathogen in California and Oregon forests. Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 43:309-35
92. Russell CA, Smith DL, Childs JE, Real LA. 2005. Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio. PLoS Biol. 3:382-88
93. Ryan JG, Ludwig JA, McAlpine CA. 2007. Complex adaptive landscapes (CAL): a conceptual framework of mulit-functional, non-linear ecohydrological feedback systems. Ecol. Complex 4:113-27
94. Sagarin R, Pauchard A. 2010. Observational approaches in ecology open new ground in a changing world. Front. Ecol. Environ. 8:379-86
95. Scherm H, Ngugi HK,Ojiambo PS. 2006. Trends in theoretical plant epidemiology. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 115:61-73
96. Schimel D. 2011. The era of continental-scale ecology. Front. Ecol. Environ. 9:311
97. Smith DL, Lucey B, Waller LA, Childs JE, Real LA. 2002. Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 99:3668-72
98. Smith EK, Resler LM, vance EA, Carstensen LW Jr, Kolivras KN. 2011. Blister rust incidence in treeline whitebark pine, Glacier National Park, U.S.A.: environmental and topographic influences. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 43:107-17
99. Sullivan LL, Johnson BL, Brudvig LA, Haddad NM. 2011. Can dispersal mode predict corridor effects on plant parasites? Ecology 92:1559-64
100. Sutherst RW, Bourne AS. 2009. Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms. Biol. Invasions 11:1231-37
101. Tischendorf L, Fahrig L. 2000. On the usage and measurement of landscape connectivity. Oikos 90:7-19
102. Turner MG. 2010. Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world. Ecology 91:2833-49
103. Urban D, Keitt T. 2001. Landscape connectivity: a graph-theoretic perspective. Ecology 82:1205-18
104. Urban DL. 2005. Modeling ecological processes across scales. Ecology 86:1996-2006
105. Václavk T, Kanaskie A, Hansen EM, Ohmann JL, Meentemeyer RK. 2010. Predicting potential and actual distribution of sudden oak death in Oregon: prioritizing landscape contexts for early detection and eradication of disease outbreaks. For. Ecol. Manag. 260:1026-35
106. Václavk T, Kupfer JA, Meentemeyer RK. 2012. Accounting for multi-scale spatial autocorrelation improves performance of invasive species distribution modelling (iSDM). J. Biogeogr. 39:42-55
107. Václavk T, Meentemeyer RK. 2012. Equilibrium or not? Modelling potential distribution of invasive species in different stages of invasion. Divers. Distrib. 18:73-83
108. vanwalleghem T, Meentemeyer RK. 2009. Predicting forestmicroclimate in heterogeneous landscapes. Ecosystems 12:1158-72
109. Wagner HH, Fortin M. 2005. Spatial analysis of landscapes: concepts and statistics. Special feature. Ecology 86:1975-87
110. White MA, Brown TN, Host GE. 2002. Landscape analysis of risk factors for white pine blister rust in the mixed forest province of Minnesota, USA. Can. J. For. Res. 32:1639-50
111. Wiens JA. 1989. Spatial scaling in ecology. Funct. Ecol. 3:385-97
112. Wilson BA, Lewis A, Aberton J. 2003. Spatial model for predicting the presence of cinnamon fungus (Phytophthora cinnamomi ) in sclerophyll vegetation communities in south-eastern Australia. Austral. Ecol. 28:108-15