Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

Earth System Dynamics

Volumn 3, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 213-231

  Pitman, A J ^a   De Noblet Ducoudre N ^b   Avila, F B ^a   Alexander, L V ^a   Boisier, J P ^b   Brovkin, V ^c   Delire, C ^d   Cruz, F ^a,e   Donat, M G ^a   Gayler, V ^c   Van Den Hurk, B ^f   Reick, C ^c   Voldoire, A ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^b LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^c MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^d Groupe d'Étude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique   (France)

^e ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY   (Philippines)

^f ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CO; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; INDIVIDUAL MODELS; LAND-COVER CHANGE; LOW TEMPERATURES; MEAN TEMPERATURE; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; MULTIPLE INDEX; RAINFALL EXTREMES; SIMULATED RESPONSE; SOUTHEAST ASIA; TEMPERATURE CHANGES; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES; DAILY PRECIPITATIONS; MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES;

CARBON DIOXIDE; LAND USE; RAIN;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTREME EVENT; LAND COVER; LAND USE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; RAINFALL; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; VEGETATION DYNAMICS;

SOUTHEAST ASIA;

EID: 84870623561     PISSN: 21904979     EISSN: 21904987     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/esd-3-213-2012     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res, 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005jd006290, 2006.
2. Arnfield, A. J.: Two decades of urban climate research: A review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island, Int. J. Climatol, 23, 1-26, 2003.
3. Avila, F B, Pitman, A. J., Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., and Abramowitz, G.: Climate model simulated changes in temperature extremes due to land cover change, J. Geophys. Res, 117, D04108, doi:10.1029/2011jd016382, 2012.
4. Bala, G., Caldeira, K., Wickert, M., Phillips, T. J., Lobell, D. B., Delire, C., and Mirin, A.: Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sei, 104, 6550-6555, doi:10.1073/pnas.0608998104, 2007. (Pubitemid 47175538)
5. Boisier, J.-P., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pitman, A. J., Cruz, F., Delire, C., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M, van der Molen, M. K., Müller, C., and Voldoire, A.: Attributing the biogeophysical impacts of Land-Use induced Land-Cover Changes on surface climate to specific causes. Results from the first LUCID set of simulations, J. Geophys. Res, 117, D12116, doi:10.1029/ 2011JD017106, 2012.
6. Bonan, G. B.: Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests, Science, 320, 1444-1449, doi:10.1126/science. 1155121, 2008.
7. Caesar, J., Alexander, L., and Vose, R.: Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set, J. Geophys. Res, 111, D05101, doi:10.1029/2005jd006280, 2006.
8. Chang, H.-I., Niyogi, D., Kumar, A., Kishtawal, C. M., Dudhia, J., Chen, F., Mohanty, U. C., and Shepherd, M.: Possible relation between land surface feedback and the post-landfall structure of monsoon depressions, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L15826, doi:10.1029/2009gl037781, 2009.
9. Davin, E. L. and De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.: Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes, J. Climate, 23, 97-112, 2010.
10. DeAngelis, A., Dominguez, F., Fan, Y., Robock, A., Kustu, M. D., and Robinson, D.: Evidence of enhanced precipitation due to irrigation over the Great Plains of the United States, I. Geophys. Res, 115, D15115, doi:10.1029/2010ID013892, 2010.
11. de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Boisier, J.-P, Pitman, A., Bonan, G. B., Brovkin, V., Cruz, F., Delire, C., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M, Lawrence, P. J, van der Molen, M. K., Müller, C., Reick, C. H., Strengers, B. J., and Voldoire, A.: Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia; Results from the first set of LUCID experiments, J.. Climate, 25, 3261-3281, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00338.1,2012.
12. Deo, R. C., Syktus, J. J, McAlpine, C. A., Lawrence, P. J., McGowan, H. AJ, and Phinn, S. R.: Impact of historical land cover change on daily indices of climate extremes including droughts in eastern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L08705, doi:10.1029/2009GL037666, 2009.
13. Douglas, E. M., Beltrán-Przekurat, A., Niyogi, D., Pielke Sr, R. A., Vörösmarty, C. J.: The impact of agricultural intensification and irrigation on land-atmosphere interactions and Indian monsoon precipitation - A mesoscale modeling perspective, Global Planet. Change, 67, 117-128, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.12.007, 2009.
14. Feddema, J. J., Oleson, K. W., Bonan, G. B., Mearns, L. O., Buja, L. E., Meehl, G. A., and Washington, W. M.: The Importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science, 310, 1674-1678, doi:10.1126/science. 1118160, 2005. (Pubitemid 41780788)
15. Findell, K. L., Pitman, A. J., England, M. H., and Pegion, P. J.: Regional and Global Impacts of Land Cover Change and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, J. Climate, 22, 3248-3269, 2009.
16. Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Berts, R., Fahey, D. W., Haywood,J., Lean, J. L., Lowe, D. C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga, G., Schulz, M., and Van Dorland, R.: Changes in atmospheric Cconstituents and in radiative forcing, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M, and Miller, H. .L, CUP, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
17. Gero, A. F and Pitman, A. I.: The Impact of Land Cover Change on a Simulated Storm Event in the Sydney Basin, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol, 45, 283-300, doi:10.1175/JAM2337.1, 2006.
18. Goldewijk, K. K.: Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database, Global Biogeochem. Cy, 15, 417-433, doi:10.1029/1999gb001232, 2001.
19. Hazeleger, W., Wang, X., Severijns, C., Stefãnescu, S., Bintanja, R., Sterl, A., Wyser, K., Semmler, T., Yang, S., van den Hurk, B., van Noije, T., van der Linden, E., and van der Wiel, K.: EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Clim. Dynam, 1-19, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1228-5,2011.
20. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B, Barros, V, Stocker, T F, Qin, D, Dokken, D. I, Ebi, K. L, Mastrandrea, M. D, Mach, K. I, Plattner, G.-K, Allen, S. K, Tignor, M, and Midgley, P. M, CUP, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 1-19, 2012.
21. Klein Tank, A. M. G. and Zwiers, F. W.: Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 56, 2009.
22. Rrinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogeé, J., Polcher, J, Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy, 19, GB1015, doi:10.1029/2003gb002199, 2005.
23. Lawrence, P.J. and Chase, T N.: Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the community climate system model, Int. J. Climatol, 30, 2066-2087, doi:10.1002/joc.2061, 2010.
24. Levis, S.: Modeling vegetation and land use in models of the Earth System, WIRES: Climate Change, 1, 840-856, doi:10.1002/wcc.83,2010.
25. Lobell, D., Bala, G., Mirin, A., Phillips, T., Maxwell, R., and Rotman, D.: Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate, J. Climate, 22, 2248-2255, 2009.
26. Marti, O., Braconnot, P., Dufresne, J. L., Bellier, J., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Codron, F., de Noblet, N., Denvil, S., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Foujols, M. A., Friedlingstein, P., Goosse, H., Grandpeix, J. Y., Guilyardi, E., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Kageyama, M., Rrinner, G., Levy, C., Madec, G., Mignot, J., Musat, J, Swingedouw, D., and Talandier, C.: Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution, Clim. Dynam, 34, 1-26, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0640-6, 2010.
27. Niyogi, D., Pyle, P., Lei, M., Arya, S. P., Kishtawal, C. M., Shepherd, M, Chen, F, and Wolfe, B.: Urban Modification of Thunderstorms: An Observational Storm Climatology and Model Case Study for the Indianapolis Urban Region, I. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol, 50, 1129-1144, doi:10.1175/2010jamcl836.1, 2011.
28. Pielke, R. A, Sr.: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall, Rev. Geophys, 39, 151-177, doi:10.1029/1999rg000072, 2001.
29. Pielke, R. A, Sr, Pitman, A, Niyogi, D, Mahmood, R, McAlpine, C, Hossain, F, Goldewijk, K. K, Nair, U, Berts, R, Fall, S, Reichstein, M, Kabat, P, and de Noblet, N.: Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence, WIRES: Climate Change, 2, 828-850, doi:10.1002/wcc.144, 2011.
30. Pitman, A. J.: The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models, Int. j. Climatol, 23, 479-510,2003.
31. Pitman, A.J., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N, Cruz, F. T, Davin, E. L., Bonan, G. B., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Delire, C., Ganzeveld, L., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Lawrence, P. J., van der Molen, M. K., Müller, C., Reick, C. H., Seneviratne, S. J., Strengers, B. J., and Voldoire, A.: Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L14814, doi:10.1029/2009gl039076, 2009.
32. Pitman, A. J., Avila, F. B., Abramowitz, G., Wang, Y. P., Phipps, S. J., and de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.: Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate, Nature Clim. Change, 1, 472-475, 2011.
33. Puma, M. J. and Cook, B. L.: Effects of irrigation on global climate during the 20th century, J. Geophys. Res, 115, D16120, doi:10.1029/2010JD014122, 2010.
34. Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K. G., Wetzel, P., and Iungclaus, J.: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?, Clim. Dynam, 29, 565-574, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8, 2007. (Pubitemid 47400022)
35. Ramankutty, N. and Foley, J. A.: Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992, Global Biogeochem. Cy, 13, 997-1027, 1999. (Pubitemid 34004342)
36. Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 19, 3771-3791, doi:10.1175/jcli3824.1, 2006. (Pubitemid 44405143)
37. Salas-Mélia, D., Chauvin, F., Déqué, M., Douville, H., Guérémy, I. F, Marquet, P, Planton, S, Royer, I. F, and Tyteca, S.: Description and validation of the CNRM-CM3 global coupled climate model, CNRM working note 103, available at: http://www.cnrm. meteo.fr/scenario2004/paper-cm3.pdf, 2005.
38. Seneviratne, S. J., Luthi, D., Litschi, M., and Schar, C.: Landatmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe, Nature, 443, 205-209, 2006. (Pubitemid 44387607)
39. Seneviratne, S. J., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, J., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev, 99, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010.
40. Shepherd, J. M.: A review of current investigations of urbaninduced rainfall and recommendations for the future, Earth Interact, 9, paper 12, 1-27, 2005.
41. Stefanon, M., Drobinski, P., D'Andrea, F., and de NobletDucoudré, N.: Effects of interactive vegetation phenology on the 2003 summer heat waves, J. Geophys. Res, in press, doi:10.1029/2012JD018187, 2012.
42. Teuling, A. J., Seneviratne, S.J., Stockli, R., Reichstein, M., Moors, E., Ciais, P., Luyssaert, S, van den Hurk, B, Ammann, C, Bernhofer, C, Dellwik, E., Gianelle, D., Gielen, B., Grunwald, T., Klumpp, K., Montagnani, L., Moureaux, C., Sottocornola, M., and Wohlfahrt, G.: Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves, Nat. Geosci, 3, 722-727,2010.
43. van der Molen, M. K., van den Hurk, B. J., and Hazeleger, W.: A. dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics, Clim. Dynam, 37, 2035-2043, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1018-0, 2011.
44. Voldoire, A.: Quantifying the impact of future land-use changes against increases in GHG concentrations, Geophys. Res. Lett, 33, L04701, doi:10.1029/2005gl024354, 2006.
45. Zhang, X, Alexander, L, Hegeři, G. C, Iones, P, Tank, A. K, Peterson, T C, Trewin, B, and Zwiers, F. W.: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data, WIRES: Climate Change, 2, 851-870, doi:10.1002/wcc.147, 2011.
46. Zhao, M. and Pitman, A. J.: The impact of land cover change and increasing carbon dioxide on the extreme and frequency of maximum temperature and convective precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett, 29, 1078, doi:10.1029/ 2001g1013476, 2002.