메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 25, 2012, Pages 3875-3885

Uncertainty assessment of hydrologic and climate forecast models in Northeastern Brazil

Author keywords

Climate forecast; Hydrologic model; Streamflow forecast; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE FORECASTS; CLIMATE INFORMATION; CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL; FORECAST SYSTEMS; HYDROLOGIC MODELING; HYDROLOGIC MODELS; HYDROLOGIC UNCERTAINTY; MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO; METROPOLIS ALGORITHMS; NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY; POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PRIMARY SOURCES; RESERVOIR OPERATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); SEASONAL PRECIPITATIONS; SHUFFLED COMPLEX EVOLUTION; STREAMFLOW FORECAST; TWO SOURCES; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT; UNCERTAINTY BOUNDS; WATER MANAGERS; WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT;

EID: 84870504098     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: 10991085     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8433     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (52)
  • 2
    • 0020547903 scopus 로고
    • An Objective Assessment of Soil- Moisture Deficit Models
    • Calder IR, Harding J, Rosier PTW. 1983. An Objective Assessment of Soil- Moisture Deficit Models. Journal of Hydrology 60: 329-355.
    • (1983) Journal of Hydrology , vol.60 , pp. 329-355
    • Calder, I.R.1    Harding, J.2    Rosier, P.T.W.3
  • 3
    • 0001113431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in forecasts of SST during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset
    • Barnston AG, He Y, Glantz MH. 1999a. Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in forecasts of SST during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. J. Climate 12; 217-244.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 217-244
    • Barnston, A.G.1    He, Y.2    Glantz, M.H.3
  • 5
    • 0022843406 scopus 로고
    • Experimental forecasts of El-Nino
    • Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Dolan SC. 1986. Experimental forecasts of El-Nino. Nature 321: 827-832.
    • (1986) Nature , vol.321 , pp. 827-832
    • Cane, M.A.1    Zebiak, S.E.2    Dolan, S.C.3
  • 6
    • 84870496381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the Influence of Potential Evapotranspiration Data on the Performance of Hydrologic Models in Semiarid Watersheds in Ceara. In Proceedings of the Regional Water Resources Congress, Salvador, Bahia.
    • Carvalho TLL, Reis DS, Jr. 2008. Evaluation of the Influence of Potential Evapotranspiration Data on the Performance of Hydrologic Models in Semiarid Watersheds in Ceara. In Proceedings of the Regional Water Resources Congress, Salvador, Bahia.
    • (2008)
    • Carvalho, T.L.L.1    Reis Jr., D.S.2
  • 7
    • 0027066440 scopus 로고
    • A solar radiation model for use in climate studies
    • Chou M-D. 1992. A solar radiation model for use in climate studies. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 49: 762-772.
    • (1992) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , vol.49 , pp. 762-772
    • Chou, M.-D.1
  • 8
    • 84870489114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • COGERH (Companhia de Gestão dos Recursos Hídricos). Plano de Gerenciamento da Bacia do Rio Jaguaribe (in Portuguese).
    • COGERH (Companhia de Gestão dos Recursos Hídricos). 1998. Plano de Gerenciamento da Bacia do Rio Jaguaribe (in Portuguese).
    • (1998)
  • 9
    • 18544362809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II
    • Doblas-Reyes FJ, Hagedorn R, Palmer TN. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Tellus 57A: 234-252.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 234-252
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 10
    • 0026445234 scopus 로고
    • Effective and Efficient Global Optimization for Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models
    • Duan QY, et al. 1992. Effective and Efficient Global Optimization for Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models. Water Resources Research 28: 1015-1031.
    • (1992) Water Resources Research , vol.28 , pp. 1015-1031
    • Duan, Q.Y.1
  • 11
    • 0027079624 scopus 로고
    • A rainfall-runoff scheme for use in the Hamburg climate model
    • O'Kane JP (ed.). European Geophysical Society Series on Hydrological Sciences, Elsevier Press: Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: New York, NY;
    • Dumenil L, Todini E. 1992. A rainfall-runoff scheme for use in the Hamburg climate model. In Advances in Theoretical Hydrology: A Tribute to James Dooge, O'Kane JP (ed.). European Geophysical Society Series on Hydrological Sciences, Vol. 1. Elsevier Press: Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: New York, NY; 129-157.
    • (1992) Advances in Theoretical Hydrology: A Tribute to James Dooge , vol.1 , pp. 129-157
    • Dumenil, L.1    Todini, E.2
  • 12
    • 33845700101 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parameter optimisation and uncertainty assessment for large-scale streamflow simulation with the LISFLOOD model
    • Feyen L, et al. 2007. Parameter optimisation and uncertainty assessment for large-scale streamflow simulation with the LISFLOOD model. Journal of Hydrology 332: 276-289.
    • (2007) Journal of Hydrology , vol.332 , pp. 276-289
    • Feyen, L.1
  • 13
    • 0004012196 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2nd edn. CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC. New York, NY.
    • Gelman A, et al. 2003. Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd edn. CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC. New York, NY.
    • (2003) Bayesian Data Analysis
    • Gelman, A.1
  • 14
    • 4143139874 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterizing streamflow simulation uncertainty through multimodel ensembles
    • Georgakakos KP, Seo DJ, Gupta H, Schake J, Butts MB. 2004. Characterizing streamflow simulation uncertainty through multimodel ensembles. Journal of Hydrology 298(1-4): 222-241.
    • (2004) Journal of Hydrology , vol.298 , Issue.1-4 , pp. 222-241
    • Georgakakos, K.P.1    Seo, D.J.2    Gupta, H.3    Schake, J.4    Butts, M.B.5
  • 17
    • 77956890234 scopus 로고
    • Monte-Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications
    • Hastings WK. 1970. Monte-Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications. Biometrika 57: 97.
    • (1970) Biometrika , vol.57 , pp. 97
    • Hastings, W.K.1
  • 18
    • 0001704660 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlocal Boundary Layer Vertical Diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model
    • Hong SY, Pan HL. 1996. Nonlocal Boundary Layer Vertical Diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model. Monthly Weather Review 124: 2322-2339.
    • (1996) Monthly Weather Review , vol.124 , pp. 2322-2339
    • Hong, S.Y.1    Pan, H.L.2
  • 21
    • 0028848727 scopus 로고
    • Improvement of Orographic Gravity Wave Parameterization Using a Mesoscale Gravity Wave Model
    • Kim YJ, Arakawa A. 1995. Improvement of Orographic Gravity Wave Parameterization Using a Mesoscale Gravity Wave Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 52: 1875-1902.
    • (1995) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , vol.52 , pp. 1875-1902
    • Kim, Y.J.1    Arakawa, A.2
  • 24
    • 0032920124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the use of "goodness-of-fit" measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation
    • Legates DR, McCabe GJ. 1999. Evaluating the use of "goodness-of-fit" measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research 35: 233-241.
    • (1999) Water Resources Research , vol.35 , pp. 233-241
    • Legates, D.R.1    McCabe, G.J.2
  • 25
    • 0019649313 scopus 로고
    • SMAP - A Simplified Hydrological Model, paper presented at INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON RAINFALL-RUNOF MODELING, Mississipi State University, Mississipi, USA.
    • Lopes JEG, et al. 1981. SMAP - A Simplified Hydrological Model, paper presented at INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON RAINFALL-RUNOF MODELING, Mississipi State University, Mississipi, USA.
    • (1981)
    • Lopes, J.E.G.1
  • 27
    • 5744249209 scopus 로고
    • Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines
    • Metropolis N, et al. 1953. Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines. Journal of Chemical Physics 21: 1087-1092.
    • (1953) Journal of Chemical Physics , vol.21 , pp. 1087-1092
    • Metropolis, N.1
  • 28
    • 0024813553 scopus 로고
    • Orographic gravity-wave drag: its parametrization and influence in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models
    • Miller MJ, Palmer TN, Swinbank R. 1989. Orographic gravity-wave drag: its parametrization and influence in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 40: 84-109.
    • (1989) Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics , vol.40 , pp. 84-109
    • Miller, M.J.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Swinbank, R.3
  • 29
    • 0019748175 scopus 로고
    • On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a general circulation model
    • Moura AD, Shukla J. 1981. On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 38: 2653-2675.
    • (1981) Journal of Atmospheric Sciences , vol.38 , pp. 2653-2675
    • Moura, A.D.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 30
    • 0014776873 scopus 로고
    • River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I -- A discussion of principles
    • Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I -- A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 10: 282-290.
    • (1970) Journal of Hydrology , vol.10 , pp. 282-290
    • Nash, J.E.1    Sutcliffe, J.V.2
  • 31
    • 84870505270 scopus 로고
    • Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. ECMWF Research Department Technical Memorandum No. 206, 41pp, Eur. Cent. For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, England.
    • Nordeng TE. 1995. Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. ECMWF Research Department Technical Memorandum No. 206, 41pp, Eur. Cent. For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, England.
    • (1995)
    • Nordeng, T.E.1
  • 32
    • 14644386885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Which Potential Evapotranspiration Input for a Lumped Rainfall-runoff Model? Part1 - Can ainfall-runoff Models Effectively Handle Detailed Potential Evapotranspiration Inputs?
    • Oudin L, Michel C, Anctil F. 2005a. Which Potential Evapotranspiration Input for a Lumped Rainfall-runoff Model? Part1 - Can ainfall-runoff Models Effectively Handle Detailed Potential Evapotranspiration Inputs? Journal of Hydrology 303: 275-289.
    • (2005) Journal of Hydrology , vol.303 , pp. 275-289
    • Oudin, L.1    Michel, C.2    Anctil, F.3
  • 33
    • 14644403067 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Which Potential Evapotranspiration Input for a Lumped Rainfall- runoff Model? Part2 - Towards a Simple and Efficient Potential Evapotranspiration Model for Rainfall-runoff Modelling
    • Oudin L Hervieu F, Michel C, Perrin C, Andreassian V, Anctil F, Loumagne C. 2005b. Which Potential Evapotranspiration Input for a Lumped Rainfall- runoff Model? Part2 - Towards a Simple and Efficient Potential Evapotranspiration Model for Rainfall-runoff Modelling. Journal of Hydrology 303: 290-306.
    • (2005) Journal of Hydrology , vol.303 , pp. 290-306
    • Oudin, L.1    Hervieu, F.2    Michel, C.3    Perrin, C.4    Andreassian, V.5    Anctil, F.6    Loumagne, C.7
  • 34
    • 0025526997 scopus 로고
    • A simple parameterization scheme of evapotranspiration over land for the NMC medium-range forecast model
    • Pan H-L. 1990. A simple parameterization scheme of evapotranspiration over land for the NMC medium-range forecast model. Monthly Weather Review 118: 2500-2512.
    • (1990) Monthly Weather Review , vol.118 , pp. 2500-2512
    • Pan, H.-L.1
  • 35
    • 0023485671 scopus 로고
    • Interaction between soil hydrology and boundary-layer development
    • Pan H-L, Mahrt L. 1987. Interaction between soil hydrology and boundary-layer development. Bound -Layer Meteorology 38: 185-202.
    • (1987) Bound -Layer Meteorology , vol.38 , pp. 185-202
    • Pan, H.-L.1    Mahrt, L.2
  • 36
    • 84870489031 scopus 로고
    • Implementing a mass flux convection parameterization package for the NMC Medium-Range Forecast Model. NMC Office Note 409, 40pp. [Available form the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Stop 9910, 4700 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC 20233-9910].
    • Pan H-L, Wu W-S. 1995. Implementing a mass flux convection parameterization package for the NMC Medium-Range Forecast Model. NMC Office Note 409, 40pp. [Available form the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Stop 9910, 4700 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC 20233-9910].
    • (1995)
    • Pan, H.-L.1    Wu, W.-S.2
  • 37
    • 0036646424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Categorical Climate Forecasts through Regularization and Optimal Combination of Multiple GCM Ensembles
    • Rajagopalan B, Lall U, Zebiak SE. 2002. Categorical Climate Forecasts through Regularization and Optimal Combination of Multiple GCM Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review 130: 1792-1811.
    • (2002) Monthly Weather Review , vol.130 , pp. 1792-1811
    • Rajagopalan, B.1    Lall, U.2    Zebiak, S.E.3
  • 39
    • 84870543018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie Rep. 218, Hamburg, Germany.
    • Roeckner E, et al. 1996. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie Rep. 218, Hamburg, Germany.
    • (1996)
    • Roeckner, E.1
  • 40
    • 1542547283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: Applications of a multivariate, semiparametric algorithm
    • DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001373
    • Souza Filho FA, Lall U. 2003. Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: Applications of a multivariate, semiparametric algorithm. Water Resources Research 39(11): 1307. DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001373.
    • (2003) Water Resources Research , vol.39 , Issue.11 , pp. 1307
    • Souza Filho, F.A.1    Lall, U.2
  • 42
    • 33745246881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An Operational Dynamical Downscaling Prediction System for Nordeste Brazil and the 2002-04 Real-Time Forecast Evaluation
    • Sun L, Moncunill DF, Li H, Moura AD, Souza Filho FA, Zebiak SE. 2006. An Operational Dynamical Downscaling Prediction System for Nordeste Brazil and the 2002-04 Real-Time Forecast Evaluation. Journal of Climate 19: 1990-2007.
    • (2006) Journal of Climate , vol.19 , pp. 1990-2007
    • Sun, L.1    Moncunill, D.F.2    Li, H.3    Moura, A.D.4    Souza Filho, F.A.5    Zebiak, S.E.6
  • 43
    • 0024907516 scopus 로고
    • A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models
    • Tiedtke M. 1989. A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Monthly Weather Review 117: 1779-1800.
    • (1989) Monthly Weather Review , vol.117 , pp. 1779-1800
    • Tiedtke, M.1
  • 44
    • 1542547090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identification of rainfall interception model parameters from measurements of throughfall and forest canopy storage
    • DOI: 10.1029/2003WR002013.
    • Vrugt JA, et al. 2003a. Identification of rainfall interception model parameters from measurements of throughfall and forest canopy storage. Water Resources Research 39: (9): 1251. DOI: 10.1029/2003WR002013.
    • (2003) Water Resources Research , vol.39 , Issue.9 , pp. 1251
    • Vrugt, J.A.1
  • 45
    • 1542442237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models
    • DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001746.
    • Vrugt JA, et al. 2003b. Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models. Water Resources Research 39: (8): 1214. DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001746.
    • (2003) Water Resources Research , vol.39 , Issue.8 , pp. 1214
    • Vrugt, J.A.1
  • 46
    • 1542757127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters
    • DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001642.
    • Vrugt JA, et al. 2003c. A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters. Water Resources Research 39: (8): 1201. DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001642.
    • (2003) Water Resources Research , vol.39 , Issue.8 , pp. 1201
    • Vrugt, J.A.1
  • 47
    • 33744917802 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of stochastic parameter optimization to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model
    • Vrugt JA, et al. 2006a. Application of stochastic parameter optimization to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Journal of Hydrology 325: 288-307.
    • (2006) Journal of Hydrology , vol.325 , pp. 288-307
    • Vrugt, J.A.1
  • 48
    • 33746200035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time data assimilation for operational ensemble streamflow forecasting
    • Vrugt JA, et al. 2006b. Real-time data assimilation for operational ensemble streamflow forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology 7: 548-565.
    • (2006) Journal of Hydrometeorology , vol.7 , pp. 548-565
    • Vrugt, J.A.1
  • 49
    • 0026266748 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea surface temperature
    • Ward MN, Folland CK. 1991. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology 11: 711-743.
    • (1991) International Journal of Climatology , vol.11 , pp. 711-743
    • Ward, M.N.1    Folland, C.K.2
  • 50
    • 0025572082 scopus 로고
    • Predicting Runoff from Rangeland Catchments - a Comparison of 2 Models
    • Wilcox BP, et al. 1990. Predicting Runoff from Rangeland Catchments - a Comparison of 2 Models. Water Resources Research 26: 2401-2410.
    • (1990) Water Resources Research , vol.26 , pp. 2401-2410
    • Wilcox, B.P.1
  • 51
    • 0001069312 scopus 로고
    • Statistics for the Evaluation and Comparison of Models
    • Willmott CJ, et al. 1985. Statistics for the Evaluation and Comparison of Models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 90: 8995-9005.
    • (1985) Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans , vol.90 , pp. 8995-9005
    • Willmott, C.J.1
  • 52
    • 0000335201 scopus 로고
    • A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation
    • Zebiak SE, Cane MA. 1987. A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115: 2262-2278.
    • (1987) Monthly Weather Review , vol.115 , pp. 2262-2278
    • Zebiak, S.E.1    Cane, M.A.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.