An integrated biophysical and socio-economic framework for analysis of climate change adaptation strategies: The case of a New Zealand dairy farming system

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 39, Issue , 2013, Pages 176-187

  Kalaugher, Electra ^a   Bornman, Janet F ^b   Clark, Anthony ^c   Beukes, Pierre ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO   (New Zealand)

^b CURTIN UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c DairyNZ   (New Zealand)

^d DAIRYNZ   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Framework; Interdisciplinary research; Modelling; Resilience; Soft systems

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; FRAMEWORK; INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH; RESILIENCE; SOFT SYSTEMS;

MODELS; RESEARCH;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; FARMING SYSTEM; INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH; THEORETICAL STUDY;

NEW ZEALAND;

EID: 84870293432     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.03.018     Document Type: Review

References (84)

1. Abler D., Shortle J., Rose A., Oladosu G. Characterizing regional economic impacts and responses to climate change. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2000, 25(1,2):67-81.
2. Adger W.N. Vulnerability. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2006, 16(3):268-281.
3. Adaptive Environmental Management: a Practitioner's Guide 2009, Springer. C. Allan, G.H. Stankey (Eds.).
4. Allen C.R., Holling C. Novelty, adaptive capacity, and resilience. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15(3):24.
5. Aydinalp C., Cresser M.S. The effects of global climate change on agriculture. American-Eurasian J. Agric. Environ. Sci. 2008, 3(5):672-676.
6. Barnett J., O'Neill S. Maladaptation. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2010, 20(2):211-213.
7. Barreteau O., Bots P.W.G., Daniell K.A. A framework for clarifying " participation" in participatory research to prevent its rejection for the wrong reasons. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15:1. (online).
8. Basset-Mens C., Ledgard S., Boyes M. Eco-efficiency of intensification scenarios for milk production in New Zealand. Ecol. Econ. 2009, 68(6):1615-1625.
9. Beijeman A., Shadbolt N.M., Gray D. Strategy recognition and implementation by New Zealand pastoral farming strategists. Peer Reviewed Paper for the 17th International Farm Management Congress, July 19th to 24th, 2009, Illinois, USA 2009, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
10. Beukes P.C., Palliser C.C., Prewer W.E., Levy G., Folkers C., Neal M., Wastney M.E., Thorrold B.S. Comparing risk for different dairy farm management systems in Taranaki using the Dexcel whole farm model. Proc. N.Z. Grassl. Assoc. 2005, 67:103-107.
11. Beukes P.C., Gregorini P., Romera A.J., Levy G., Waghorn G.C. Improving production efficiency as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions on pastoral dairy farms in New Zealand. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2010, 136(3,4):358-365.
12. Beukes P.C., Gregorini P., Romera A.J., Dalley D.E. The profitability and risk of dairy cow wintering strategies in the Southland region of New Zealand. Agric. Syst. 2011, 104(7):541-550.
13. Briske D.D., Washington-Allen R.A., Johnson C.R., Lockwood J.A., Lockwood D.R., Stringham T.K., Shugart H.H. Catastrophic thresholds: a synthesis of concepts, perspectives and applications. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15(3):37.
14. Bryant J.R., Snow V.O. Modelling pastoral farm agro-ecosystems: a review. N.Z. J. Agric. Res. 2008, 51(3):349-363.
15. Burton R., Peoples S. Learning from Past Adaptations to Extreme Climatic Events: a Case Study of Drought - Part A Summary Report 2008, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand.
16. Burton I., Huq S., Lim B., Pilifosova O., Schipper E.L. From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Clim. Policy 2002, 2(2,3):145-159.
17. Cabrera V.E., Breuer N.E., Hildebrand P.E. Participatory modeling in dairy farm systems: a method for building consensual environmental sustainability using seasonal climate forecasts. Clim. Chang. 2008, 89:395-409.
18. Checkland P., Poulter J. Soft systems methodology. Systems Approaches to Managing Change: a Practical Guide 2010, 191-242. Springer, London. M. Reynolds, S. Holwell (Eds.).
19. Clark A., Tait A. Drought, Agricultural Production & Climate Change - A Way Forward to a Better Understanding 2008, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand.
20. Cobon D.H., Stone G.S., Carter J.O., Scanlan J.C., Toombs N.R., Zhang X., Willcocks J., McKeon G.M. The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. Rangel. J. 2009, 31(1):31-49.
21. Cornell S., Costanza R., Sörlin S., van der Leeuw S. Developing a systematic "science of the past" to create our future. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2010, 20(3):426-427.
22. Darnhofer I., Bellon S., Dedieu B., Milestad R. Adaptiveness to enhance the sustainability of farming systems. A review. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 2010, 30(3):545-555.
23. Darnhofer I., Fairweather J., Moller H. Assessing a farm's sustainability: insights from resilience thinking. Int. J. Agric. Sustain. 2010, 8(3):186-198.
24. Dessai S., Hulme M. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?. Clim. Policy 2004, 4:107-128.
25. Dessai S., Hulme M. Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: a case study on water resources management in the east of England. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2007, 17(1):59-72.
26. Dessai S., Lu X., Risbey J.S. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2005, 15(2):87-97.
27. Dynes R., Payne T., Brown H., Bryant J., Newton P., Snow V., Lieffering M., Wilson D., Beets P. New Zealand's land-based primary industries & climate change: assessing adaptation through scenario-based modelling. Climate Change Adaptation in New Zealand: Future Scenarios and Some Sectoral Perspectives 2010, 44-55. NZ Climate Change Centre, Wellington, NZ. R.A.C. Nottage (Ed.).
28. FAO Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 2008, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
29. Fauconnier G., Turner M. Conceptual integration networks. Cogn. Sci. 1998, 22(2):133-187.
30. Fitzgerald J.B., Brereton A.J., Holden N.M. Assessment of the adaptation potential of grass-based dairy systems to climate change in Ireland-the maximised production scenario. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2009, 149(2):244-255.
31. Folke C., Carpenter S.R., Walker B., Scheffer M., Chapin T., Rockström J. Resilience thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability. Ecol. Soc. 2010, 15(4):20.
32. Fowler H.J., Blenkinsopa S., Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int. J. Climatol. 2007, 27:1547-1578.
33. Gray, D.I., 2001. The Tactical Management Processes used by Pastoral-Based Dairy Farmers: A Multiple Case Study of Experts. PhD Thesis, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
34. Gueringer A., Rapey H., Houdart M., Bigot G., Josien E., Landré F. Adaptability through spatial management: a case study of livestock farms in the Massif Central, France. Outlook. Agric. 2009, 38(2):111-118.
35. Hoffmann V., Probst K., Christinck A. Farmers and researchers: how can collaborative advantages be created in participatory research and technology development?. Agric. Human. Values. 2007, 24(3):355-368.
36. Jay M. The political economy of a productivist agriculture: New Zealand dairy discourses. Food Policy 2007, 32(2):266-279.
37. Kenny G. Adaptation in agriculture: lessons for resilience from eastern regions of New Zealand. Climate Change Adaptation in New Zealand: Future Scenarios and Some Sectoral Perspectives 2010, 56-69. New Zealand Climate Change Centre, Wellington. R.A.C. Nottage, D.S. Wratt, J.F. Bornman, K. Jones (Eds.).
38. Kenny G., Fisher M. The View from the Ground: A Farmer Perspective on Climate Change and Adaptation 2003, Earthwise Consulting Limited and the Hawke's Bay Climate Change Adaptation Group, Hastings, New Zealand.
39. KPMG KPMG Agribusiness Agenda: The Big Opportunities and Challenges Facing New Zealand Agriculture: Reflections on the Views of Industry Leaders 2010, Retrieved 5 May 2011 from. http://www.kpmg.com/NZ/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Pages/Agribusiness-Agenda.aspx.
40. Kropff M.J., Bouma J., Jones J.W. Systems approaches for the design of sustainable agro-ecosystems. Agric. Syst. 2001, 70(2,3):369-393.
41. Kvale S., Brinkman S. Interviews: Learning the Craft of Qualitative Research Interviewing 2009, Sage, Los Angeles.
42. Lynam T., De Jong W., Sheil D., Kusumanto T., Evans K. A review of tools for incorporating community knowledge, preferences, and values into decision making in natural resources management. Ecol. Soc. 2007, 12(1):5. (online) URL:. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art5/.
43. MacLeod C.J., Moller H. Intensification and diversification of New Zealand agriculture since 1960: an evaluation of current indicators of land use change. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2006, 115(1-4):201-218.
44. Mansilla V.B. Learning to synthesize: the development of interdisciplinary understanding. The Oxford Handbook of Interdisciplinarity 2010, 288-306. Oxford University Press, Oxford. R. Frodeman, J. Thompson Klein, C. Mitcham (Eds.).
45. Martin G., Felten B., Duru M. Forage rummy: a game to support the participatory design of adapted livestock systems. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26:1442-1453.
46. Mastrandrea M.D., Schneider S.H. Preparing for Climate Change 2010, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
47. Mastrandrea M., Heller N., Root T., Schneider S. Bridging the gap: linking climate-impacts research with adaptation planning and management. Clim. Chang. 2010, 100(1):87-101.
48. McCown R.L., Parton K.A. Learning from the historical failure of farm management models to aid management practice. Part 2. Three systems approaches. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 2006, 57(2):157-172.
49. Miller T.R., Baird T.D., Littlefield C.M., Kofinas G., Chapin F.S., Redman C.L. Epistemological pluralism: reorganizing interdisciplinary research. Ecol. Soc. 2008, 13(2):46.
50. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry 2009, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Wellington, New Zealand.
51. Neef A., Neubert D. Stakeholder participation in agricultural research projects: a conceptual framework for reflection and decision-making. Agric. Human. Values. 2011, 28(2):179-194.
52. Nelson D.R. Adaptation and resilience: responding to a changing climate. WIREs. Clim. Chang. 2011, 2(1):113-120.
53. Nelson D.R., Adger W.N., Brown K. Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2007, 32(1):395-419.
54. Newton P., Bryant J., Snow V., Lieffering M. Enhanced Modelling Capability to Conduct Climate Change Impact Assessments 2008, AgResearch, New Zealand.
55. Norgaard R.B., Baer P. Collectively seeing climate change: the limits of formal models. BioSci. 2009, 55(11):961-966.
56. Parry M., Carter T. Climate Impact and Adaption Assessment: a Guide to the IPCC Approach 1998, Earthscan Publications Ltd., London.
57. Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WG II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
58. Patwardhan A., Downing T., Leary N., Wilbanks T. Towards an integrated agenda for adaptation research: theory, practice and policy: strategy paper. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain 2009, 1(2):219-225.
59. Payne, T., White, T.D., 2009. Northland Dairy Farmers: How Resilient are They to Adverse Weather Events? Contract Report by Landcare Trust, Prepared for Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand.
60. Pearson L.J., Nelsonc R., Crimp S., Langridge J. Interpretive review of conceptual frameworks and research models that inform Australia's agricultural vulnerability to climate change. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26:113-123.
61. Pereira â.G., Funtowicz S. Knowledge representation and mediation for transdisciplinary frameworks: tools to inform debates, dialogues and deliberations. Int. J. Transdiscipl. Res. 2006, 1(1):34-50.
62. Reidsma P., Ewert F. Regional farm diversity can reduce vulnerability of food production to climate change. Ecol. Soc. 2008, 13(1):38-53.
63. Renwick J., Clark A., Griffiths G., Hendrikx J., Liley B., Tait A., Wood S. State of the Climate 2010: a Snapshot of Recent Climate in New Zealand 2010, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand.
64. Systems Approaches to Managing Change: a Practical Guide 2010, Springer, London. M. Reynolds, S. Holwell (Eds.).
65. Ripoche A., Rellier J.P., Martin-Clouaire R., Paré N., Biarnès A., Gary C. Modelling adaptive management of intercropping in vineyards to satisfy agronomic and environmental performances under Mediterranean climate. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26:1467-1480.
66. Scoones I. Climate change and the challenge of non-equilibrium thinking. IDS Bull. 2004, 35(3):114-119.
67. Smit B., Skinner M.W. Adaptation Options in Canadian Agriculture to Climate Change 2002, University of Guelph, Queen's University, Ontario, Canada.
68. Smith W., Kelly S., Rhodes T. Information, Decision and Action: The Factors That Determine Farmers Environmental Decision-Making 2008, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand.
69. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
70. Stirling A. Keep it complex. Nature 2010, 468(7327):1029-1031.
71. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Preparing Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future 2010, CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood VIC, Australia. C. Stokes, M. Howden (Eds.).
72. Stoorvogel J.J., Antle J.M., Crissman C.C., Bowen W. The tradeoff analysis model: integrated bio-physical and economic modeling of agricultural production systems. Agric. Syst. 2004, 80(1):43-66.
73. Swart R., Bernstein L., Ha-Duong M., Petersen A. Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC. Clim. Chang. 2009, 92(1):1-29.
74. Voinov A., Bousquet F. Modelling with stakeholders. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010, 25(11):1268-1281.
75. Walker B., Carpenter S., Anderies J., Abel N., Cumming G., Janssen M., Lebel L., Norberg J., Peterson G.D., Pritchard R. Resilience management in social-ecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conserv. Ecol. 2002, 6(1):14.
76. Warrick R.A., Kenny G.J., Harman J.J. The Effects of Climate Change and Variation in New Zealand: An Assessment Using the CLIMPACTS System 2001, International Global Change Institute (IGCI), The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
77. Wilby R.L., Dessai S. Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather 2010, 65(7):180-185.
78. Wilson E.O. Consilience among the great branches of learning. Daedalus 1998, 127(1):131-149.
79. Windle G. What is resilience? A review and concept analysis. Rev. Clin. Gerontol. 2011, 21:152-169.
80. Wixon D.L., Balser T.C. Complexity, climate change and soil carbon: a systems approach to microbial temperature response. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 2009, 26(5):601-620.
81. Woodward S.J.R., Romera A.J., Beskow W.B., Lovatt S.J. Better simulation modelling to support farming systems innovation: review and synthesis. N.Z. J. Agric. Res. 2008, 51:235-252.
82. Wratt D., Mullan A.B., Tait A., Woods R., Baisden T., Giltrap D., Hendy J., Stroombergen A. Costs and Benefits of Climate Change and Adaptation to Climate Change in New Zealand Agriculture: What Do We Know so Far? Contract Report by EcoClimate Consortium: Integrated Research on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts Adaptation and Mitigation 2008, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand, 112.
83. Yakushev V.P. Risk analysis as the basis for evaluating the consequences of climate changes in agriculture. Russ. Agric. Sci. 2009, 35(5):355-358.
84. Zhang B., Valentine I., Kemp P.D. Spatially explicit modelling of the impact of climate changes on pasture production in the North Island, New Zealand. Clim. Chang. 2007, 84(2):203-216.