Impacts of climate and land-use changes on the migration of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus during rainfall-runoff in the Jialing River Watershed, China

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 475, Issue , 2012, Pages 26-41

  Wu, Lei ^a   Long, Tian yu ^b   Liu, Xia ^c   Guo, Jin song ^b  

^a NORTHWEST A F UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b CHONGQING UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c SHENYANG JIANZHU UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Climate change; Jialing river watershed; Nitrogen; Phosphorus; Pollution load prediction; SLURP hydrological model

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE DATA; CLIMATIC CONDITIONS; CONSERVATION MEASURES; CONTRIBUTION RATE; DIFFERENT LAND USE TYPES; EXPORT COEFFICIENTS; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; INPUT DATAS; LAND USE TYPE; LAND-USE CHANGE; LARGE-SCALE WATERSHEDS; NON-POINT SOURCE; NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION; NPS POLLUTION; POLLUTION LOADS; POLLUTION SOURCES; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; RAINFALL RUNOFF; REGIONAL CLIMATE; RESIDENTIAL AREAS; RIVER WATER; RIVER WATER QUALITY; RIVER WATERSHEDS; SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA; TOTAL NITROGEN; TOTAL PHOSPHORUS; UNDERLYING SURFACE; WATERSHED POLLUTION;

AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF; AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; LAND USE; LANDFORMS; MARKOV PROCESSES; METADATA; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; POLLUTION CONTROL; RIVERS; SOIL CONSERVATION; WATER QUALITY; WATERSHEDS;

RIVER POLLUTION;

CLIMATE EFFECT; LAND USE CHANGE; NITROGEN; NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION; NUTRIENT LOSS; PHOSPHORUS; POLLUTION EFFECT; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RURAL AREA; SIMULATION; WATERSHED;

CHINA; JIALING RIVER; THREE GORGES;

EID: 84870245809     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.08.022     Document Type: Article

References (102)

1. Alexander R.B., Elliott A.H., Shankar U., Mcbride G.B. Estimating the source and transport of nutrients in the Waikato River Basin, New Zealand. Water Resources Research 2002, 38:1268-1290.
2. Arnaud P., Lavabre J., Fouchier C., Diss S., Javelle P. Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty of rainfall input. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2011, 56:397-410.
3. Bian Y.S. Waste Disposal and Recycling of Ecological Agriculture 2000, Chemical Industry Press, Beijing, China, pp. 96-97.
4. Bertahas L., Dimitriou E., Karaouzas L., Laschou S., Zacharias L. Climate change and agricultural pollution effects on the trophic status of a Mediterranean lake. Acta Hydrochimica et Hydrobiologica 2006, 34:349-359.
5. Beyene T., Lettenmaier D.P., Kabat P. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios. Climate Change 2010, 100:433-461.
6. Bowes M.J., Smith J.T., Jarvie H.P., Neal C. Modelling of phosphorus inputs to rivers from diffuse and point sources. The Science of Total Environment 2008, 395:125-138.
7. Bronswijk J.J.B., Hamminga W., Oostindie K. Rapid nutrient leaching to groundwater and surface water in clay soil areas. European Journal of Agronomy 1995, 4:431-439.
8. Bukovsky M.S., Karoly D.J. A regional modeling study of climate change impacts on warm-season precipitation in the central United States. Journal of Climate 2011, 24:1985-2002.
9. Carpenter S.R., Caraco N.F., Correll D.L., Howarth A., Sharpley N., Smith V.H. Nonpoint pollution of surface waters with phosphorous and nitrogen. Ecological Applications 1998, 8:559-568.
10. Cai M., Li H.E., Zhuang Y.T. Application of modified export coefficient method in the estimation of watershed non-point source pollution load. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 2004, 35:1-8.
11. Chen J., Brissette F.P., Leconte R. Uncertainty of downscaling method in quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrology. Journal of Hydrology 2011, 401:190-202.
12. Chen S.Q., Diao C.T. Land use structure change and its evolving tendency of ecological economic zone in the Three Gorges reservoir area - A case study of Liangping County, Chongqing Municipality. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 2009, 29:160-173.
13. Chen X.H., Tu X.J., Xie P., et al. Progresses in the research of human induced variability of hydrological elements. Advances in Earth Science 2010, 25(8):800-811.
14. Chen Y.Y., Hui E.Q., Jin C.J. A hydrological method for estimation of non-point source pollution loads and its application. Research of Environmental Sciences 2003, 16:10-13.
15. Cho J., Park S., lm S. Evaluation of agricultural nonpoint source (AGNPS) model for small watersheds in Korea applying irregular cell delineation. Agricultural Water Management 2008, 95:400-408.
16. Clavero M., Villero D., Brotons L. Climate change or land use dynamics: Do we know what climate change indicators indicate?. PLoS ONE 2011, 6(4):e18581. 10.1371/journal.pone.0018581.
17. Dayyani S., Prasher S.O., Madani A., Madramootoo C.A. Development of DRAIN-WARMF model to simulate flow and nitrogen transport in a tile-drained agricultural watershed in Eastern Canada. Agricultural Water Management 2010, 98:55-68.
18. Deng C.G. Eutrophication Research of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area 2007, China Environmental Science Press, Beijing, China, 18 pp.
19. Dong L.H., Xiong L.H., Yu K.X., Li S. Research advances in effects of climate change and human activities on hydrology. Advances in Water Science 2012, 23(2):278-285.
20. Duan Q., Sorooshian S., Gupta V.K. Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models. Journal of Hydrology 1994, 158:265-284.
21. Gao, L.H., 2006. Research of watershed non-point source pollution model supported by remote sensing and GIS. Hehai University, Nanjing, China, pp. 74-76 (111-114).
22. Garbrecht J., Campbell J. TOPAZ: an automated digital landscape analysis tool for topographic evaluation, drainage identification, watershed segmentation and sub-catchment parameterization, TOPAZ User Manual 1997, USDA-ARS, Oklahoma.
23. Garbrecht J., Martz L.W. The assignment of drainage direction over flat surfaces in raster digital elevation models. Journal of Hydrology 1997, 193:204-213.
24. Gassman P., Reyes M., Green C., Arnold J. The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. Transaction of ASABE 2007, 50:1211-1250.
25. Gosain A.K., Rao S., Basuray D. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins. Current Science 2006, 90:346-353.
26. Haberlandt U., Klocking B., Krysanova V., Becker A. Regionalisation of the base flow index from dynamically simulated flow components-a case study in the Elbe River Basin. Journal of Hydrology 2001, 248(1-4):35-53.
27. Hao F.H., Yang S.T., Cheng H.G. A method for estimation of non-point source pollution load in the large-scale basins of China. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae 2006, 26:375-383.
28. He B.G., Zhou N.S., Hu X.F. On farmland precipitation-runoff non-point pollution model-farmland nitrogen pollution model in shanghai suburbs. Resources and Environmental in the Yangtze Basin 2001, 10:159-164.
29. Honisch M., Hellmeier C., Weiss K. Response of surface and subsurface water quality to land use changes. Geoderma 2002, 105:277-298.
30. Howden N.J.K., Burt T.P., Mathias S.A., Worrall F., Whelan M.J. Modelling long-term diffuse nitrate pollution at the catchment-scale: data, parameter and epistemic uncertainty. Journal of Hydrology 2011, 403:337-351.
31. Hubbard R.K., Sheridan J.M. Water and nitrate losses from a small upland coastal plain watershed. Journal of Environmental Quality 1983, 12:291-295.
32. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K., Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
33. Jain S.K., Kumar N., Ahmad T., Kite G.W. SLURP model and GIS for estimation of runoff in a part of Satluj catchment, India. Hydrological Sciences-Journal-des Sciences Hydrologiques 1998, 43:875-884.
34. Janza M. Hydrological modeling in the karst area, Rizana spring catchment, Slovenia. Environmental Earth Sciences 2010, 60:463-472.
35. Jha M., Arnold J.G., Gassman P.W., Giorgi F., Gu R. Climate change sensitivity assessment on upper Mississippi river basin steamflows using SWAT. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2006, 42:997-1015.
36. Jha, M., Pan, Z., Takle, E.S., Gu, R., 2004. Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississppi River Basin: a regional climate model perspective. Journal of Geophysics Research 109 (D9), D09105.
37. Jing L., Chen B. Hydrological Modeling of Subartic Wetlands: comparison between SLURP and Watflood. Environmental Engineering Science 2011, 28:521-533.
38. Johnes P.J. Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface: the export coefficient modeling approach. Journal of Hydrology 1996, 183:323-349.
39. Kite G.W. Application of a land-use hydrological model to climatic change. Water Resources Research 1993, 29(7):2377-2384.
40. Kite G.W. Modelling the mekong: hydrological simulation for environmental impact studies. Journal of Hydrology 2001, 253:1-13.
41. Kite, G.W., 2002. Manual for the SLURP Hydrological Model Version 12.2. Canada: NHRI Publ.
42. Kite G.W., Dalton A., Dion K. Simulation of streamflow in a macro-scale watershed using GCM data. Water Resources Research 1994, 30:1546-1559.
43. Kovács Á., Clement A. Impacts of the climate change on runoff and diffuse phosphorus load to Lake Balaton (Hungary). Water ScienceTechnology 2009, 59:417-423.
44. Krysanova V., Hattermann F., Wechsung F. Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modeling and impact assessment in river basins. Environmental Modelling and Software 2007, 22(5):701-709.
45. Lacroix M.P., Martz L.W., Kite G.W., Garbrecht J. Using digital terrain analysis modeling techniques for the parameterization of a hydrologic model. Environmental Modelling and Software 2002, 17:127-136.
46. Lai Y.C., Yang C.P., Hsieh C.Y., Wu C.Y., Kao C.M. Evaluation of non-point source pollution and river water quality using a multimedia two-model system. Journal of Hydrology 2011, 409:583-595.
47. Lee E., Seong C., Kim H., Park S., Kang M. Predicting the impacts of climate change on nonpoint source pollutant loads from agricultural small watershed using artificial neural network. Journal of Environmental Sciences 2010, 22(6):840-845.
48. Lee G., Kim S., Jung K., Tachikawa Y. Development of a large basin rainfall-runoff modeling system using the Object-oriented Hydrologic Modeling System (OHyMoS). KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 2011, 15:595-606.
49. Li H.E., Zhuang Y.T. The export coefficient modeling approach for load prediction of nutrient from nonpoint source and its application. Journal of Xi an University of Technology 2003, 19(4):307-312.
50. Li L.J., Jiang D.J., Li J.Y., et al. Advances in hydrological response to land use/land cover change. Journal of Nature Resources 2007, 22(2):211-224.
51. Lin Y.P., Chu H.J., Wu C.F., Verburg P.H. Predictive ability of logistic regression, auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling - a case study. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 2011, 25:65-87.
52. Linden S.V.D., Woo M.K. Application of hydrological models with increasing complexity to subarctic catchment. Journal of Hydrology 2003, 270:145-157.
53. Linsley R.K., Kohler M.A., Paulhus J.H.L. Hydrology for Engineers 1975, McGraw-Hill. Second ed.
54. Liu R.M., Yang Z.F., Ding X.W., Shen Z.Y., Wu X., Liu F. Effect of land use/cover change on pollution load of non-point source in upper reach of Yangtze River basin. Environmental Science 2006, 27:2407-2414.
55. Liu Q., Cui B.S. Impacts of climate change/variability on the streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China. Ecological Modelling 2011, 222:268-274.
56. Long T.Y., Liang C.D., Li J.C. Forecasting the pollution load of non point sources imported to the Three Gorges Reservoir. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae 2008, 28:574-581.
57. Long T.Y., Wu L., Meng G.H., Guo W.H. Numerical simulation for impacts of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Section of Jialing River, China. Ecological Modelling 2011, 222:112-119.
58. López E., Bocco G., Mendoza M. Predicting land-cover and land-use change in the urban fringe A case in Morelia city, Mexico. Landscape and Urban Planning 2001, 55:271-285.
59. Ma X.B., Wang Z.Y., Yin Z.G., Koenig A. Nitrogen flow analysis in Huizhou, South China. Environmental Management 2008, 41:378-388.
60. Machado F., Mine M., Kaviski E., Fill H. Monthly rainfall-runoff modelling using artificial neural networks. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2011, 56:349-361.
61. McGrath D.A., Smith C.K., Gholz H.L., Oliveira F.D. Effects of Land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics in Amazonia. Ecosystems 2001, 4:625-645.
62. Mekong River Commission, 2005. Overview of the Hydrology of the Mekong Basin. Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, November 2005. 73pp.
63. Meyn, S.P., Tweedie, R.L., 2005. Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability. second ed to appear, Cambridge University Press, 2008.
64. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part-a discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 1970, 10:282-290.
65. Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R., Williams, J.R., 2005. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation, version 2005. Texas: USDA, Agriculture Research Service and Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory.
66. Omerinik, J.M., 1976. The Influence of Land Use on Stream Nutrient Levels. USEPA, Office of Research and Development, Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory, Eutrophication Survey Branch, Washington, DC.
67. Onstad C.A., Jamieson D.G. Modelling the effects of land use modifications on runoff. Water Resources Research 1970, 6(5):1287-1295.
68. Park M.H., Swamikannu X., Stenstrom M.K. Accuracy and precision of the volume-concentration method for urban stormwater modeling. Water Research 2009, 43:2773-2786.
69. Park M.J., Park J.Y., Shin H.J., Lee M.S., Park G.A., Jung I.K., Kim S.J. Projection of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution loads for a forest dominant dam watershed by reflecting future vegetation canopy in a soil and water assessment tool model. Water Science and Technology 2010, 61:1975-1986.
70. Pikounis M., Varanou E., Baltas E., et al. Application of the SWAT model in the pinios river basin under different land-use scenarios. GLOBAL NEST: The International Journal 2003, 5(2):71-79.
71. Pionke H.B., Gburek W.J., Sharpley A.N. Critical source area controls on water quality in an agricultural watershed located in the Chesapeake Basin. Ecological Engineering 2000, 14:325-335.
72. Polyakov V., Fares A., Kubo D. Evaluation of a non-point source pollution model, AnnAGNPS, in a tropical watershed. Environmental Modeling and Software 2007, 22:1617-1627.
73. Rivarola Sosa J.M., Brandani G., Dibari C., Moriondo M., Ferrise R., Trombi G., Bindi M. Climate change impact on the hydrological balance of the Itaipu Basin. Meterological Applications 2011, 18:163-170.
74. Shen Z.L., Qun L. Nutrients in the Changjiang River. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2009, 153:27-44.
75. Shen Z.Y., Hong Q., Chu Z., Gong Y.W. A framework for priority non-point source area identification and load estimation integrated with APPI and PLOAD model in Fujiang Watershed, China. Agricultural Water Management 2011, 98:977-989.
76. Shrestha S., Kazama F., Newham L.T.H. A framework for estimating pollutant export coefficients from long-term in-stream water quality monitoring data. Environmental Modelling and Software 2008, 23:182-194.
77. Shi X.Z., Yu D.S., Gao P., Wang H.J., Sun W.X., Zhao Y.C., Gong Z.T. Chinese soil information system (SISChina) and its basic research of application. Soil 2007, 39(3):329-333.
78. Shi X.Z., Yu D.S., Warner E.D., Sun W.X., Petersen G.W., Gong Z.T. Cross-reference system for translating between genetic soil classification of China and soil taxonomy. Soil Science Society of America Journal 2006, 70(1):78-83.
79. Shimelis, G.S., David, R., Assefa, M.M., et al., 2011. Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. Water resources Research, 47:W04511. doi:10.1029/2010WR009248.
80. Somura H., Arnold J., Hoffman D., Takeda I., Mori Y., Di Luzio M. Impact of climate change on the Hii River basin and salinity in Lake Shinji: a case study using the SWAT model and a regression curve. Hydrological Processes 2009, 23:1887-1900.
81. Soranno P.A., Hubler S.L., Carpenter S.R. Phosphorus loads to surface waters: a simple model to account for spatial pattern of landuse. Ecological Applications 1996, 6(3):865-878.
82. SRES Climate Change 2000: Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, summary for policymakers 2000, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 27p.
83. Su, M., Stolte, W.J., van der Kamp, G., 1997. Modelling wetland hydrology using SLURP. In: Proceedings of the Scientific Meeting of the Canadian Geophysical Union, Banff, Alberta, Calgary: University of Alberta Press. p. 198.
84. Vaze J., Teng J., Chiew F.H.S. Assessment of GCM simulations of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall distribution across south-east Australia. Hydrological Processes 2011, 25:1486-1497.
85. Wang E.L., Zhang Y.Q., Luo J.M., Chiew F.H.S., Wang Q.J. Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts using rainfall-runoff modeling and historical weather data. Water Resources Research 2011, 47:W05516. 10.1029/2010WR009922.
86. Wilby R.L., Whitehead P.G., Wade A.J., Butterfield D., Davis R.J., Watts G. Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK. Journal of Hydrology 2006, 330:204-220.
87. WMO, 1986. Intercomparison of models of snowmelt runoff. Operational Hydrology Report No.23, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
88. Woo M.K., Thorne R. Snowmelt contribution to discharge from a large mountainous catchment in subarctic Canada. Hydrological Processes 2006, 20:2129-2139.
89. Worrall F., Burt T.P. The impact of land-use change on water quality at the catchment scale: the use of export coefficient and structural models. Journal of Hydrology 1999, 221:75-90.
90. Wu L., Long T.Y., Cooper W.J. Simulation of spatial and temporal distribution on dissolved non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus load in Jialing River Watershed, China. Environmental Earth Sciences 2012, 65(6):1795-1806.
91. Wu L., Long T.Y., Li C.M. The Simulation Research of Dissolved Nitrogen and Phosphorus non-point source Pollution in Xiao-Jiang Watershed of Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Water Science and Technology 2010, 61:1601-1616.
92. Wu Y., Chen H.S., Ni D.H. Relationship of precipitation-runoff in Three Gorges Reservoir Area and a runoff forecasting model. Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research 2010, 33:46-52.
93. Yan W.J., Yin C.Q., Zhang S. Nutrient budgets and biogeochemistry in an experimental agricultural watershed in Southeastern China. Biogeochemistry 1999, 45:1-19.
94. Yoon S.W., Chung S.W., Oh D.G., Lee J.W. Monitoring of non-point source pollutants load from a mixed forest land use. Journal of Environmental Sciences 2010, 22(6):801-805.
95. Young R.A., Onstad C.A., Bosch D.D. AGNPS: A nonpoint-source pollution model for evaluating agricultural watershed. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 1989, 44:168-173.
96. Zhang D., Zhang W.C., Zhu L. Improvement and application of SWAT-a physically based, distributed hydrological model. Scientia Geographica Sinica 2005, 25(4):434-440.
97. Zhang D.F., Wang S.J., Li R.L. Effect of land use/land cover changes on aquatic environment in Yangtze River basin. Areal Research and Development 2003, 22:69-72.
98. Zhang S., Li C.M., Zheng J. Seasonal variation of trophic states in backwater areas of tributaries in three gorges reservoir. Environmental Science 2009, 30:64-69.
99. Zhang X., Cai X.M. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability. Environmental Research Letters 2011, 6:1-8.
100. Zhang X.M., Cao W.H., Guo Q.C., Wu S.H. Effects of land use change on surface runoff and sediment yield at different watershed scales on the Loess Plateau. International Journal of Sediment Research 2010, 25:283-293.
101. Zhu B., Wang T., Kuang F.H. Characteristics of nitrate leaching from hilly cropland of purple soil. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae 2008, 28:525-533.
102. Zhu B., Wang T., Wang J.C. Source and load of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of typical small watersheds in the Three Gorges reservoir area. Soil and Water Conversation in China 2010, 10:34-36.