메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 27, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 832-855

Sensitivity of 0-12-h warm-season precipitation forecasts over the central United States to model initialization

Author keywords

Data assimilation; Model evaluation performance; Nowcasting; Numerical weather prediction forecasting; Short range prediction

Indexed keywords

ADVANCED RESEARCHES; COLD POOL; DATA ASSIMILATION; INITIAL CONDITIONS; LARGE-SCALE MODELS; MIDLATITUDES; MODEL EVALUATION; MODEL INITIALIZATION; NOWCASTING; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PRECIPITATION PATTERNS; PRECIPITATION VERIFICATION; RADAR DATA; RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION; RADAR OBSERVATIONS; SHORTWAVE TROUGHS; SPIN-UP; SURFACE-BASED; VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION; WARM-SEASON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODELS;

EID: 84868312925     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00075.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (43)
  • 1
    • 68249141511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations. Part I: Storm-scale analyses
    • Aksoy, A., D. C. Dowell, and C. Snyder, 2009: A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations. Part I: Storm-scale analyses. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1805-1824.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 1805-1824
    • Aksoy, A.1    Dowell, D.C.2    Snyder, C.3
  • 2
    • 77955524010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations. Part II: Short-range ensemble forecasts
    • Aksoy, A., D. C. Dowell, and C. Snyder, 2010: A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations. Part II: Short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1273-1292.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 1273-1292
    • Aksoy, A.1    Dowell, D.C.2    Snyder, C.3
  • 3
    • 0029412930 scopus 로고
    • The LAPS wind analysis
    • Albers, S. C., 1995: The LAPS wind analysis. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 342-352.
    • (1995) Wea. Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 342-352
    • Albers, S.C.1
  • 5
    • 3042798251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for MM5: Implementation and initial results
    • Barker, D. M., X. Huang, Y.-R. Guo, A. J. Bourgeois, and Q. Xiao, 2004: A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for MM5: Implementation and initial results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 897-914.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 897-914
    • Barker, D.M.1    Huang, X.2    Guo, Y.-R.3    Bourgeois, A.J.4    Xiao, Q.5
  • 6
    • 12144288506 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An hourly assimilation- forecast cycles: The RUC
    • Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2004: An hourly assimilation- forecast cycles: The RUC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 495-518.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 495-518
    • Benjamin, S.G.1
  • 7
    • 42549087576 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast verification: Current status and future directions
    • Casati, B., and Coauthors, 2008: Forecast verification: Current status and future directions. Meteor. Appl., 15, 3-18.
    • (2008) Meteor. Appl. , vol.15 , pp. 3-18
    • Casati, B.1
  • 8
    • 1642273836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis and forecasting of the lowlevel wind during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project
    • Crook, N. A., and J. Sun, 2004: Analysis and forecasting of the lowlevel wind during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 151-167.
    • (2004) Wea. Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 151-167
    • Crook, N.A.1    Sun, J.2
  • 9
    • 33745459195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numerical forecasts of the 15-16 June 20020 southern plains mesoscale convective systems: Impact of mesoscale data and cloud analysis
    • Dawson, D. T., and M. Xue, 2006: Numerical forecasts of the 15-16 June 20020 southern plains mesoscale convective systems: Impact of mesoscale data and cloud analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1607-1629.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 1607-1629
    • Dawson, D.T.1    Xue, M.2
  • 10
    • 4444315259 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wind and temperature retrievals in the 17 May 1981 Arcadia, Oklahoma, supercell: Ensemble Kalman filter experiments
    • Dowell, D. C., F. Zhang, L. J. Wicker, C. Snyder, and N. A. Crook, 2004: Wind and temperature retrievals in the 17 May 1981 Arcadia, Oklahoma, supercell: Ensemble Kalman filter experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1982-2005.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 1982-2005
    • Dowell, D.C.1    Zhang, F.2    Wicker, L.J.3    Snyder, C.4    Crook, N.A.5
  • 11
    • 1442314273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of Noah land-surface model advances in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta Model
    • doi:10.1029/2002JD003296
    • Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, P. Grummann, V. Koren, G. Gayno, and J. D. Tarpley, 2003: Implementation of Noah land-surface model advances in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta Model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.108
    • Ek, M.B.1    Mitchell, K.E.2    Lin, Y.3    Rogers, E.4    Grummann, P.5    Koren, V.6    Gayno, G.7    Tarpley, J.D.8
  • 12
    • 54649084769 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of WRF forecasts for south Florida to initial conditions
    • Etherton, B., and P. Santos, 2008: Sensitivity of WRF forecasts for south Florida to initial conditions. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 725-739.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 725-739
    • Etherton, B.1    Santos, P.2
  • 13
    • 4143114555 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy
    • Fritsch, J. M., and R. E. Carbone, 2004: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 955-965.
    • (2004) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.85 , pp. 955-965
    • Fritsch, J.M.1    Carbone, R.E.2
  • 15
    • 1842735150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A three-dimensional variational data analysis method with recursive filter for Doppler radars
    • Gao, J., M. Xue, K. Brewster, and K. K. Droegemeier, 2004: A three-dimensional variational data analysis method with recursive filter for Doppler radars. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 457-469.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , vol.21 , pp. 457-469
    • Gao, J.1    Xue, M.2    Brewster, K.3    Droegemeier, K.K.4
  • 16
    • 33847418021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of configurations of rapid intermittent assimilation of WSR-88D radar data for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic thunderstorm case
    • Hu, M., and M. Xue, 2007: Impact of configurations of rapid intermittent assimilation of WSR-88D radar data for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic thunderstorm case. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 507-525.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 507-525
    • Hu, M.1    Xue, M.2
  • 17
    • 33645318980 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 3DVAR and cloud analysis with WSR-88D level-II data for the prediction of the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorms. Part II: Impact of radial velocity analysis via 3DVAR
    • Hu, M., M. Xue, and K. Brewster, 2006: 3DVAR and cloud analysis with WSR-88D level-II data for the prediction of the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorms. Part II: Impact of radial velocity analysis via 3DVAR. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 675-698.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 675-698
    • Hu, M.1    Xue, M.2    Brewster, K.3
  • 19
    • 33646389558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004
    • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 167-181.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 167-181
    • Kain, J.S.1    Weiss, S.J.2    Levit, J.J.3    Baldwin, M.E.4    Bright, D.R.5
  • 20
    • 78149349817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing advances in the assimilation of radar data and other mesoscale observations within a collaborative forecasting-research environment
    • Kain, J. S., and Coauthors, 2010: Assessing advances in the assimilation of radar data and other mesoscale observations within a collaborative forecasting-research environment. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1510-1521.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1510-1521
    • Kain, J.S.1
  • 21
    • 77958553649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observations of elevated convection initiation leading to a surface-based squall line
    • Marsham, J. H., S. B. Trier, T. M. Weckwerth, and J. W. Wilson, 2011: Observations of elevated convection initiation leading to a surface-based squall line. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 247-271.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 247-271
    • Marsham, J.H.1    Trier, S.B.2    Weckwerth, T.M.3    Wilson, J.W.4
  • 22
    • 0027040023 scopus 로고
    • The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical interpolation analysis system
    • Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 1747-1763
    • Parrish, D.F.1    Derber, J.C.2
  • 23
    • 57649155886 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An investigation of the ability of a storm scale configuration of the Met Office NWP model to predict floodproducing rainfall
    • Roberts, N. M., 2005: An investigation of the ability of a storm scale configuration of the Met Office NWP model to predict floodproducing rainfall. Met Office Tech. Rep. 455, 80 pp.
    • (2005) Met Office Tech. Rep. , vol.455 , pp. 80
    • Roberts, N.M.1
  • 24
    • 70350748596 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2-km versus 4-km grid spacing
    • Schwartz, C. S., and Coauthors, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2-km versus 4-km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3351-3372.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 3351-3372
    • Schwartz, C.S.1
  • 25
    • 39749134275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atime-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications
    • Skamarock, W.C., and J.B. Klemp, 2008:Atime-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications. J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3465-3485.
    • (2008) J. Comput. Phys. , vol.227 , pp. 3465-3485
    • Skamarock, W.C.1    Klemp, J.B.2
  • 26
    • 50949123739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of radarderived rain rate into the convective-scale model COSMODE at DWD
    • Stephan, K., S. Klink, and C. Schraff, 2008: Assimilation of radarderived rain rate into the convective-scale model COSMODE at DWD. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1315-1326.
    • (2008) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 1315-1326
    • Stephan, K.1    Klink, S.2    Schraff, C.3
  • 27
    • 77649326976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of Doppler radar data with WRF 3DVAR: Evaluation of its potential benefits to quantitative precipitation forecasting through observing system simulation experiments
    • Sugimoto, S., N. A. Crook, J. Sun, Q. Xiao, and D. Barker, 2009: Assimilation of Doppler radar data with WRF 3DVAR: Evaluation of its potential benefits to quantitative precipitation forecasting through observing system simulation experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 4011-4029.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 4011-4029
    • Sugimoto, S.1    Crook, N.A.2    Sun, J.3    Xiao, Q.4    Barker, D.5
  • 28
    • 34250012195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convective-scale assimilation of radar data: Progress and challenges
    • Sun, J., 2005: Convective-scale assimilation of radar data: Progress and challenges. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3439-3463.
    • (2005) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.131 , pp. 3439-3463
    • Sun, J.1
  • 29
    • 0031399793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part I Model development and simulated data experiments
    • Sun, J., and N. A. Crook, 1997: Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part I: Model development and simulated data experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1642-1661.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 1642-1661
    • Sun, J.1    Crook, N.A.2
  • 30
    • 0035245587 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time low-level wind and temperature analysis using single WSR-88D data
    • Sun, J., and N. A. Crook, 2001: Real-time low-level wind and temperature analysis using single WSR-88D data. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 117-132.
    • (2001) Wea. Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 117-132
    • Sun, J.1    Crook, N.A.2
  • 31
    • 52149124522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis and prediction of a squall line observed during IHOP using multiple WSR-88D observations
    • Sun, J, and Y. Zhang, 2008: Analysis and prediction of a squall line observed during IHOP using multiple WSR-88D observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2364-2388.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 2364-2388
    • Sun, J.1    Zhang, Y.2
  • 32
    • 78650989776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A frequent-updating analysis system based on radar, surface, and mesoscale model data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project
    • Sun, J, M. Chen, and Y. Wang, 2010: A frequent-updating analysis system based on radar, surface, and mesoscale model data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1715-1735.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1715-1735
    • Sun, J.1    Chen, M.2    Wang, Y.3
  • 33
    • 46749105418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization
    • Thompson G., P. R. Field, and R. M. Rasmussen, 2008: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5095-5115.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 5095-5115
    • Thompson, G.1    Field, P.R.2    Rasmussen, R.M.3
  • 34
    • 79953165394 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of surface heat and moisture exchange on ARW-WRF warm-season precipitation forecasts over the central United States
    • Trier, S. B., M. A. LeMone, F. Chen, and K. W. Manning, 2011a: Effects of surface heat and moisture exchange on ARW-WRF warm-season precipitation forecasts over the central United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 3-25.
    • (2011) Wea. Forecasting , vol.26 , pp. 3-25
    • Trier, S.B.1    LeMone, M.A.2    Chen, F.3    Manning, K.W.4
  • 35
    • 84855846924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numerical simulations of the postsunrise reorganization of a nocturnal mesoscale convective system during 13 June IHOP_2002
    • Trier, S. B, J. H. Marsham, C. A. Davis, and D. A. Ahijevych, 2011b: Numerical simulations of the postsunrise reorganization of a nocturnal mesoscale convective system during 13 June IHOP_2002. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2988-3011.
    • (2011) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.68 , pp. 2988-3011
    • Trier, S.B.1    Marsham, J.H.2    Davis, C.A.3    Ahijevych, D.A.4
  • 36
    • 12144287822 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and some preliminary highlights
    • Weckwerth, T. M., and Coauthors, 2004: An overview of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and some preliminary highlights. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 253-277.
    • (2004) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.85 , pp. 253-277
    • Weckwerth, T.M.1
  • 37
    • 51649123185 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An observational study of convection initiation on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002
    • Weckwerth, T. M, H.V.Murphey, C. Flamant, J.Goldstein, and C. R.Goldstein, 2008: An observational study of convection initiation on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2283-2304.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 2283-2304
    • Weckwerth, T.M.1    Murphey, H.V.2    Flamant, C.3    Goldstein, J.4    Goldstein, C.R.5
  • 38
    • 48649108162 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experiences with 0-36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model
    • Weisman, M. L., C. A. Davis, W. Wang, K. W. Manning, and J. B. Klemp, 2008: Experiences with 0-36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 407-437.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 407-437
    • Weisman, M.L.1    Davis, C.A.2    Wang, W.3    Manning, K.W.4    Klemp, J.B.5
  • 39
    • 70450189423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of radar reflectivity data using a diabatic digital filter within the Rapid Update Cycle
    • NewOrleans, LA, Amer.Meteor. Soc., 8.4
    • Weygandt, S. S., S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smimova, and J. M. Brown, 2008: Assimilation of radar reflectivity data using a diabatic digital filter within the Rapid Update Cycle. Preprints, 12th Conf. on IOAS-AOLS, NewOrleans, LA, Amer.Meteor. Soc., 8.4. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/134081.pdf.]
    • (2008) Preprints, 12th Conf. on IOAS-AOLS
    • Weygandt, S.S.1    Benjamin, S.G.2    Smimova, T.G.3    Brown, J.M.4
  • 40
    • 33644759621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summary of convective storm initialization and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective
    • Wilson, J. W., and R. D. Roberts, 2006: Summary of convective storm initialization and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 23-47.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 23-47
    • Wilson, J.W.1    Roberts, R.D.2
  • 41
    • 35748980004 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple radar data assimilation and short-range QPF of a squall line observed during IHOP_2002
    • Xiao, Q., and J. Sun, 2007: Multiple radar data assimilation and short-range QPF of a squall line observed during IHOP_2002. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3381-3404.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 3381-3404
    • Xiao, Q.1    Sun, J.2
  • 42
    • 24044451491 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of Doppler radar observations with a regional 3DVAR system: Impact of Doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case
    • Xiao, Q., Y.-H. Kuo, J. Sun, W.-C. Lee, E. Lim, Y. Guo, and D. M. Barker, 2005: Assimilation of Doppler radar observations with a regional 3DVAR system: Impact of Doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case. J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 768-788.
    • (2005) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.44 , pp. 768-788
    • Xiao, Q.1    Kuo, Y.-H.2    Sun, J.3    Lee, W.-C.4    Lim, E.5    Guo, Y.6    Barker, D.M.7
  • 43
    • 33846794790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An approach of radar reflectivity data assimilation and its assessment with the inland QPF of Typhoon Rusa (2002) at landfall
    • Xiao, Q., Y.-H. Kuo, J. Sun, W.-C. Lee, and D. M. Barker, 2007: An approach of radar reflectivity data assimilation and its assessment with the inland QPF of Typhoon Rusa (2002) at landfall. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 14-22.
    • (2007) J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , vol.46 , pp. 14-22
    • Xiao, Q.1    Kuo, Y.-H.2    Sun, J.3    Lee, W.-C.4    Barker, D.M.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.