Development of a new scoring system for predicting the 5 year incidence of type 2 diabetes in Japan: the Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 6 (TOPICS 6)

Diabetologia

Volumn 55, Issue 12, 2012, Pages 3213-3223

  Heianza, Y ^a,b,c   Arase, Y ^b,d   Hsieh, S D ^b,d   Saito, K ^b,e   Tsuji, H ^b,d   Kodama, S ^a,b   Tanaka, S ^f   Ohashi, Y ^g   Shimano, H ^c   Yamada, N ^c   Hara, S ^b,d   Sone, H ^a,b  

^a NIIGATA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^b TORANOMON HOSPITAL   (Japan)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TSUKUBA   (Japan)

^d Medical Research   (Japan)

^e IBARAKI PREFECTURAL UNIVERSITY OF HEALTH SCIENCES   (Japan)

^f KYOTO UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL   (Japan)

^g UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

Author keywords

HbA1c; Prediction; Riskscores; Type2diabetes

Indexed keywords

HEMOGLOBIN A1C;

ADULT; AGE; AGED; ARTICLE; BLOOD SAMPLING; BODY MASS; FAMILY HISTORY; FEMALE; GLUCOSE BLOOD LEVEL; HEMOGLOBIN BLOOD LEVEL; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; JAPAN; MALE; NON INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETES MELLITUS; NON LABORATORY ASSESSMENT SCORE; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCORING SYSTEM; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SEX; SMOKING;

ADULT; AGED; ASIAN CONTINENTAL ANCESTRY GROUP; BLOOD GLUCOSE; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; FASTING; FEMALE; HEMOGLOBIN A, GLYCOSYLATED; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; JAPAN; MALE; MASS SCREENING; MIDDLE AGED; OBESITY; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; SMOKING; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84868191135     PISSN: 0012186X     EISSN: 14320428     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00125-012-2712-0     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lu Yet al (2011) National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2.7 million participants. Lancet 378:31-40
2. Buijsse B, Simmons RK, Griffin SJ, Schulze MB (2011) Risk assessment tools for identifying individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Epidemiol Rev 33:46-62
3. Noble D, Mathur R, Dent T, Meads C, Greenhalgh T (2011) Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review. BMJ 343:d7163
4. Collins GS, Mallett S, Omar O, Yu LM (2011) Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting. BMC Med 9:103
5. Sasai H, Sairenchi T, Irie F, Iso H, Tanaka K, Ota H (2008) Development of a diabetes risk prediction sheet for specific health guidance. Nippon Koshu Eisei Zasshi 55:287-294 [article in Japanese]
6. Lindstrom J, Tuomilehto J (2003) The diabetes risk score: a practical tool to predict type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes Care 26:725-731
7. Schmidt MI, Duncan BB, Bang H et al (2005) Identifying individuals at high risk for diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Diabetes Care 28:2013-2018
8. Aekplakorn W, Bunnag P, Woodward M et al (2006) A risk score for predicting incident diabetes in the Thai population. Diabetes Care 29:1872-1877
9. Schulze MB, Hoffmann K, Boeing H et al (2007) An accurate risk score based on anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors to predict the development of type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 30:510-515
10. Wilson PW,Meigs JB, Sullivan L, Fox CS, Nathan DM, D'Agostino RB Sr (2007) Prediction of incident diabetes mellitus in middle-aged adults: the Framingham Offspring Study. Arch Intern Med 167:1068-1074
11. Balkau B, Lange C, Fezeu L et al (2008) Predicting diabetes: clinical, biological, and genetic approaches: data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR). Diabetes Care 31:2056-2061
12. Gao WG, Qiao Q, Pitkaniemi J et al (2009) Risk prediction models for the development of diabetes in Mauritian Indians. Diabet Med 26:996-1002
13. Kahn HS, Cheng YJ, Thompson TJ, Imperatore G, Gregg EW(2009) Two risk-scoring systems for predicting incident diabetes mellitus in U.S. adults age 45 to 64 years. Ann Intern Med 150:741-751
14. Schulze MB, Weikert C, Pischon T et al (2009) Use of multiple metabolic and genetic markers to improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Potsdam Study. Diabetes Care 32:2116-2119
15. Rathmann W, Kowall B, Heier M et al (2010) Prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes mellitusin the older population: KORA S4/F4 cohort study. Diabet Med 27:1116-1123
16. Wannamethee SG, Papacosta O, Whincup PH et al (2011) The potential for a two-stage diabetes risk algorithm combining nonlaboratory-based scores with subsequent routine non-fasting blood tests: results from prospective studies in older men and women. Diabet Med 28:23-30
17. Doi Y, Ninomiya T, Hata J et al (2012) Two risk score models for predicting incident type 2 diabetes in Japan. DiabetMed 29:107-114
18. Schmid R, Vollenweider P, Bastardot F, Waeber G, Marques-Vidal P (2012) Validation of 7 type 2 diabetes mellitus risk scores in a population-based cohort: CoLaus study. Arch InternMed 172:188-189
19. Stern MP, Williams K, Haffner SM (2002) Identification of persons at high risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus: do we need the oral glucose tolerance test? Ann Intern Med 136:575-581
20. Meigs JB, Shrader P, Sullivan LM et al (2008) Genotype score in addition to common risk factors for prediction of type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med 359:2208-2219
21. Talmud PJ, Hingorani AD, Cooper JA et al (2010) Utility of genetic and non-genetic risk factors in prediction of type 2 diabetes: Whitehall II prospective cohort study. BMJ 340:b4838
22. Norberg M, Eriksson JW, Lindahl B et al (2006) A combination of HbA1c, fasting glucose and BMI is effective in screening for individuals at risk of future type 2 diabetes: OGTT is not needed. J Intern Med 260:263-271
23. Selvin E, Steffes MW, Zhu H et al (2010) Glycated hemoglobin, diabetes, and cardiovascular risk in nondiabetic adults. N Engl J Med 362:800-811
24. Cheng P, Neugaard B, Foulis P, Conlin PR (2011) Hemoglobin A1c as a predictor of incident diabetes. Diabetes Care 34:610-615
25. Wang W, Lee ET, Howard BV, Fabsitz RR, Devereux RB, Welty TK (2011) Fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c in identifying and predicting diabetes: the Strong Heart Study. Diabetes Care 34:363-368
26. Schottker B, Raum E, Rothenbacher D, Muller H, Brenner H (2011) Prognostic value of haemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose for incident diabetes and implications for screening. Eur J Epidemiol 26:779-787
27. Abdul-Ghani MA, Abdul-Ghani T, Muller G et al (2011) Role of glycated hemoglobin in the prediction of future risk of T2DM. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 96:2596-2600
28. Sattar N (2012) Biomarkers for diabetes prediction, pathogenesis or pharmacotherapy guidance? Past, present and future possibilities. Diabet Med 29:5-13
29. Kolberg JA, Jorgensen T, Gerwien RW et al (2009) Development of a type 2 diabetes risk model from a panel of serum biomarkers from the Inter99 cohort. Diabetes Care 32:1207-1212
30. Amerian Diabetes Association (2010) Diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care 33(Suppl 1):S62-S69
31. Sacks DB, Arnold M, Bakris GL et al (2011) Guidelines and recommendations for laboratory analysis in the diagnosis and management of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care 34:e61-e99
32. World Health Organization (2011) Use of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. WHO, Geneva
33. Heianza Y, Arase Y, Fujihara K et al (2012) Longitudinal trajectories of HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose levels during the development of type 2 diabetes: the Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 7 (TOPICS 7). Diabetes Care 35:1050-1052
34. Kashiwagi A, Kasuga M, Araki E et al Committee on the Standardization of Diabetes Mellitus-Related Laboratory Testing of Japan Diabetes Society (JDS) (2012) International clinical harmonization of glycated hemoglobin in Japan: from Japan Diabetes Society to National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program values. Diabetology International 3:8-10
35. DeLong ER, DeLong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL (1988) Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics 44:837-845
36. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, D'Agostino RB Jr, Vasan RS (2008) Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med 27:157-172, discussion 207-212
37. von Eckardstein A, Schulte H, Assmann G (2000) Risk for diabetes mellitus in middle-aged Caucasian male participants of the PROCAM study: implications for the definition of impaired fasting glucose by the American Diabetes Association. Prospective Cardiovascular Munster. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 85:3101-3108
38. Kanaya AM, Wassel Fyr CL, de Rekeneire N et al (2005) Predicting the development of diabetes in older adults: the derivation and validation of a prediction rule. Diabetes Care 28:404-408
39. Mann DM, Bertoni AG, Shimbo D et al (2010) Comparative validity of 3 diabetes mellitus risk prediction scoring models in a multiethnic US cohort: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Am J Epidemiol 171:980-988
40. Lim NK, Park SH, Choi SJ, Lee KS, Park HY (2012) A risk score for predicting the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a middle-aged Korean cohort. Circ J 76:1904-1910
41. Willi C, Bodenmann P, Ghali WA, Faris PD, Cornuz J (2007) Active smoking and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA 298:2654-2664
42. Alssema M, Vistisen D, Heymans MWet al (2011) The Evaluation of Screening and Early Detection Strategies for Type 2 Diabetes and Impaired Glucose Tolerance (DETECT-2) update of the Finnish diabetes risk score for prediction of incident type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 54:1004-1012
43. Hsu WC, Boyko EJ, Fujimoto WY et al (2012) Pathophysiologic differences among Asians, native Hawaiians, and other Pacific Islanders and treatment implications. Diabetes Care 35:1189-1198
44. Chen L, Magliano DJ, Zimmet PZ (2012) The worldwide epidemiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus -present and future perspectives. Nat Rev Endocrinol 8:228-236
45. Herman WH, Cohen RM (2012) Racial and ethnic differences in the relationship between HbA1c and blood glucose: implications for the diagnosis of diabetes. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 97:1067-1072
46. International Expert Committee (2009) International Expert Committee report on the role of the A1c assay in the diagnosis of diabetes. Diabetes Care 32:1327-1334
47. Zhang X, Gregg EW, Williamson DF et al (2010) A1c level and future risk of diabetes: a systematic review. Diabetes Care 33:1665-1673
48. Chatterjee R, Narayan KM, Lipscomb J, Phillips LS (2010) Screening adults for pre-diabetes and diabetes may be costsaving. Diabetes Care 33:1484-1490
49. Kahn R, Alperin P, Eddy D et al (2010) Age at initiation and frequency of screening to detect type 2 diabetes: a costeffectiveness analysis. Lancet 375:1365-1374
50. World Health Organization (2003) Screening for type 2 diabetes: report of a World Health Organization and International Diabetes Federation Meeting. WHO, Geneva