Daily earthquake forecasts during the May-June 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence (northern Italy)

Annals of Geophysics

Volumn 55, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 561-567

  Marzocchi, Warner ^a   Murru, Maura ^a   Lombardi, Anna Maria ^a   Falcone, Giuseppe ^a   Console, Rodolfo ^a  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE MECHANISM; FORECASTING METHOD;

EMILIA;

EID: 84868128662     PISSN: 15935213     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4401/ag-6161     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Agnew, D.C., and L.M. Jones (1991). Prediction probabilities from foreshocks, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 11959-11971.
2. Console, R., and M. Murru (2001). A simple and testable model for earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 8699-8711.
3. Console, R., M. Murru and A.M. Lombardi (2003). Refining earthquake clustering models, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2468; doi: 10.1029/2002JB002130.
4. Console, R., M. Murru and G. Falcone (2010a). Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of M r5 earthquakes in Italy, J. Seismol., 14, 9-26.
5. Console, R., M. Murru and G. Falcone (2010b). Retrospective forecasting of M f4.0 earthquakes in New Zealand, Pure Appl. Geophys., 167 (6-7), 693-707; doi:10.1007/s000 24-010-0068-2.
6. Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606.
7. Falcone, G., R. Console and M. Murru (2010). Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Annals of Geophysics, 53 (3), 41-50.
8. Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66, 8-21.
9. Gasperini, P., and B. Lolli (2009). An empirical comparison among aftershock decay models, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 175, 183-193.
10. Gerstenberger, M., S. Wiemer, L.M. Jones and P.A. Reasenberg (2005). Real time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California, Nature, 435, 328-331.
11. Gruppo di Lavoro CPTI (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna; http:// emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI04/
12. Gruppo di Lavoro MPS (2004). Redazione della mappa di pericolosita sismica prevista dall'Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003, Rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-Roma, aprile 2004, 65 pp. + 5 appendici (in Italian); http:// zonesismiche.mi. ingv.it/documenti/rapporto_conclusivo.pdf
13. Jordan, T.H., Y.-T. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi, G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka and J. Zschau (2011). Operational earthquake forecasting: state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization, Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4), 315-391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350.
14. Lolli, B., and P. Gasperini (2003). Aftershock hazard in Italy. Part I: estimation of time magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence, J. Seismol., 7, 235-257.
15. Lolli, B., P. Gasperini and E. Boschi (2011). Time variations of aftershock decay parameters of the 2009 April 6 L'Aquila (central Italy) earthquake: evidence of the emergence of a negative exponential regime superimposed to the power law, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 764-774, doi:10.1111/j.13 65-246X.2011.04967.x.
16. Lombardi, A.M., and W. Marzocchi (2010a). The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment, Annals of Geophysics, 53 (3), 155-164.
17. Lombardi, A.M., and W. Marzocchi (2010b). The assumption of Poisson seismic-rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 2293-2300.
18. Marzocchi, W., and A.M. Lombardi (2009). Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21302; doi:10.1029/2009GL040233.
19. Marzocchi, W., and J.D. Zechar (2011). Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 82, 442-448.
20. Marzocchi, W., A. Amato, A. Akinci, C. Chiarabba, A.M. Lombardi, D. Pantosti and E. Boschi (2012a). A ten-year earthquake occurrence model for Italy, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 1195-1213.
21. Marzocchi, W., J.D. Zechar and T.H. Jordan (2012b). Bayesian forecast evaluation and ensemble earthquake forecasting. B. Seismol. Soc. Am., in press.
22. Murru, M., R. Console and G. Falcone (2009). Real-time earthquake forecasting in Italy, Tectonophysics, 470, 214-223; doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.09.010.
23. Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 9-27.
24. Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 50, 379-402.
25. Ogata, Y. (2011), Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth Planets Space, 63, 217-229.
26. Reasenberg, P.A., and L.M. Jones (1989). Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California, Science, 243, 1173-1176.
27. Schorlemmer, D., F. Mele and W. Marzocchi (2010). A completeness analysis of the national seismic network of Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B04308; doi:10.1029/2008JB006097.
28. van Stiphout, T., S. Wiemer and W. Marzocchi (2010). Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06306; doi:10.1029/2009GL042352.
29. Woessner, J., S. Hainzl, W. Marzocchi, M.J. Werner, A.M. Lombardi, F. Catalli, B. Enescu, M. Cocco, M.C. Gerstenberger and S. Wiemer (2011). A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B05305; doi:10.1029/2010JB007846.
30. Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata and D. Vere Jones (2002). Stochastic declustering of space time earthquake occurrences, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 97, 369-380.
31. Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata and D. Vere-Jones (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B05301; doi:10.1029/2003 JB002879.
32. Zhuang, J., C. Chang, Y. Ogata and Y. Chen (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point-process models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S18; doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.
33. Zhuang, J. (2011). Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, 63, 207-216.