Strategic niche management of alternative fuel vehicles: A system dynamics model of the policy effect

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 79, Issue 9, 2012, Pages 1672-1680

  Kwon, Tae hyeong ^a  

^a Hankuk University of Foreign Studies   (South Korea)

Author keywords

Alternative fuel vehicles; Increasing returns to scale; Lock in; Network effect; Strategic niche management; System dynamics

Indexed keywords

ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES; LOCK-IN; NETWORK EFFECTS; RETURNS TO SCALE; STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT; SYSTEM DYNAMICS;

ALTERNATIVE FUELS; COMMERCE; COMPETITION; FEEDBACK; OPERATING COSTS; SYSTEM THEORY;

VEHICLES;

ALTERNATIVE FUEL; COST; ENERGY POLICY; MARKET CONDITIONS; MODELING; RETURNS TO SCALE; STRATEGIC APPROACH; TRANSPORT VEHICLE;

EID: 84867098425     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.015     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Leiby P.N., Greene D.L., Bowman D., Twokek E. Systems analysis of hydrogen transition with HyTrans. Transp. Res. Rec. 2006, 1983:129-139.
2. Yeh S., Farrell A., Plevin R., Santad A., Weyant J. Optimizing U.S. mitigation strategies for the light-duty transportation sector: what we learn from a bottom-up model. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2008, 42(22):8202-8210.
3. van Vliet O., van den Broek M., Turkenburg W., Faaij A. Combining hybrid cars and synthetic fuels with electricity generation and carbon capture and storage. Energy Policy 2011, 39:248-268.
4. Köhler J., Whitmarsh L., Nykvist B., Schilperoord M., Bergman N., Haxeltine A. A transitions model for sustainable mobility. Ecol. Econ. 2009, 68(12):2985-2995.
5. Schneider M.T., Schade B., Grupp H. Innovation process 'fuel cell vehicle': what strategy promises to be most successful?. Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 2004, 16(2):147-172.
6. Struben J., Sterman J.D. Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation system. Environ. Plann. B: Plann. Des. 2008, 35:1070-1097.
7. Walther G., Wansart J., Kieckhafer K., Schnieder E., Spengler T.S. Impact assessment in the automotive industry: mandatory market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 2010, 26(3):239-261.
8. Wolstenholme E.F. Towards the definition and use of a core set of archetypal structures in system dynamics. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 2003, 19(1):7-26.
9. Wolstenholme E.F. Using generic system archetypes to support thinking and modelling. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 2004, 20(4):341-356.
10. Rivers N., Jaccard M. Combining top-down and bottom-up approaches to energy-economy modelling using discrete choice methods. Energy J. 2005, 26(1):83-106.
11. Mau P., Eyzaguirre J., Jaccard M., Collins-Dodd C., Tiedemann K. The 'neighbor effect': simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicle technologies. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 68:504-516.
12. Horne M., Jaccard M., Tiedemann K. Improving behavioural realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions. Energy Econ. 2005, 27:59-77.
13. Axsen J., Mountain D.C., Jaccard M. Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbour effect: the case of hybrid-electric vehicles. Resour. Energy Econ. 2009, 31:221-238.
14. Gallagher K.S., Muehlegger E. Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 2011, 61:1-15.
15. Foster V., Bateman I.J., Harley D. Real and hypothetical willingness to pay for environmental preservation: a non-experimental comparison. J. Agric. Econ. 1997, 48(2):123-138.
16. 2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios. Energy Policy 2010, 38:7142-7151.
17. 2 reductions and cost implication for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe. Energy Policy 2012, 40:404-421.
18. Arthur W.B. Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy 1994, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.
19. Kaldor N. The irrelevance of equilibrium economics. Econ. J. 1972, 82:1237-1255.
20. Foxon T.J. A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy. Ecol. Econ. 2011, 70(12):2258-2267.
21. Grubler A., Nakicenovic N., Victor D.G. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change: implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration. Energy Policy 1999, 27:247-280.
22. Unruh G.C. Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 2000, 28:817-830.
23. Agnolucci P., McDowall W. Technological change in niches: auxiliary power units and the hydrogen economy. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2007, 74:1394-1420.
24. Farrell A.E., Keith D.W., Corbett J.J. A strategy for introducing hydrogen into transportation. Energy Policy 2003, 31:1357-1367.
25. Kemp R., Schot J., Hoogma R. Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: the approach of strategic niche management. Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 1998, 10:175-196.
26. Sterman J. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World 2000, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston.
27. Kwon T. A system dynamics model of alternative fuel vehicles market under network effect. Korean Syst. Dyn. Rev. 2007, 8(2):5-23.
28. Kwon T. Building a market share model of alternative fuel vehicles: from generic system archetypes to system dynamics modelling. Paper Presented at the Conference of System Dynamic Society, Athens, Greece July 20-24 2008.
29. Schot J., Geels F.W. Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy. Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 2008, 20(5):537-554.
30. van Bree B., Verbong G.P.J., Kramer G.J. A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:529-540.
31. Hoogma R., Kemp R., Schot J., Truffer B. Experimenting for Sustainable Transport 2002, Spon Press, London.
32. Nykvist B., Whitmarsh L. A multi-level analysis of sustainable mobility transition: niche development in the UK and Sweden. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2008, 75:1373-1387.
33. van der Laak W.W.M., Raven R.P.J.M., Verbong G.P.J. Strategic niche management for biofuels: analysing past experiments for developing new biofuel policies. Energy Policy 2007, 35:3213-3225.
34. Smith A. Translating sustainabilities between green niche and socio-technical regimes. Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 2007, 19(4):427-450.