Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: The approach of strategic niche management

Technology Analysis and Strategic Management

Volumn 10, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 175-198

  Kemp, René ^a   Schot, Johan ^b   Hoogma, Remco ^b  

^a MAASTRICHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TWENTE   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001513530     PISSN: 09537325     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09537329808524310     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. For comments and suggestions, we would like to thank Boelie Elzen, Arie Rip, two reviewers and all project partners involved in the EU-SEER support project on strategic niche management.
2. Such systems consist of a Meet of vehicles that can be rented for short periods, and central management that controls their location and disposition. Examples are the Praxitèle and TULIP systems currently experimented with in France.
3. See, for example, A. Irwin & P. Hooper, 'Clean Technology, Successful Innovation and the Greening of Industry', Business Strategy and the Environment, 1, 1992, pp. 1-11; and K. Green & I. Miles, 'A Clean Break? From Corporate Research and Development to Sustainable Technological Regimes', in: R. Welford & R. Starkey (F,ds), Business and the Environment (London, Earthscan Publications 1996), pp. 129-144.
4. See, for example, A. Irwin & P. Hooper, 'Clean Technology, Successful Innovation and the Greening of Industry', Business Strategy and the Environment, 1, 1992, pp. 1-11; and K. Green & I. Miles, 'A Clean Break? From Corporate Research and Development to Sustainable Technological Regimes', in: R. Welford & R. Starkey (F,ds), Business and the Environment (London, Earthscan Publications 1996), pp. 129-144.
5. A. H. van de Ven, 'Central Problems in the Management of Innovation', Management Science, 32, 1986, pp. 590-607.
6. Sec M. Hard & A. Knie, 'The Ruler of the Game: the Defining Power of the Standard Automobile', in: K. H. Sorensen (Eds), The Past, Present and Future of the Motorcar in Europe (Luxembourg, European Commission, 1994), pp. 137-158.
7. Sec W.J. Abernathy & J. M. Utterback, 'Patterns of Industrial Innovation', Technology Review, 50, 1978, pp. 41-47. See also J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation (Boston, Harvard Business School Press, 1994).
8. Sec W.J. Abernathy & J. M. Utterback, 'Patterns of Industrial Innovation', Technology Review, 50, 1978, pp. 41-47. See also J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation (Boston, Harvard Business School Press, 1994).
9. Sec G. Dosi, 'Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories: A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinants and Directions of Technical Change', Research Policy, 6, 1982, pp. 147-162; G. Dosi, 'The Nature of the Innovation Process', in G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg & L. Soete (Eds), Technical Change and Economic Theory (London, Pinter Publishers, 1988), pp. 221-238. R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, 'In Search of Useful Theory of Innovation', Research Policy, 6, 1977, pp. 36-76; R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (Cambridge, MA, Bellknap Press, 1982).
10. Sec G. Dosi, 'Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories: A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinants and Directions of Technical Change', Research Policy, 6, 1982, pp. 147-162; G. Dosi, 'The Nature of the Innovation Process', in G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg & L. Soete (Eds), Technical Change and Economic Theory (London, Pinter Publishers, 1988), pp. 221-238. R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, 'In Search of Useful Theory of Innovation', Research Policy, 6, 1977, pp. 36-76; R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (Cambridge, MA, Bellknap Press, 1982).
11. Sec G. Dosi, 'Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories: A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinants and Directions of Technical Change', Research Policy, 6, 1982, pp. 147-162; G. Dosi, 'The Nature of the Innovation Process', in G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg & L. Soete (Eds), Technical Change and Economic Theory (London, Pinter Publishers, 1988), pp. 221-238. R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, 'In Search of Useful Theory of Innovation', Research Policy, 6, 1977, pp. 36-76; R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (Cambridge, MA, Bellknap Press, 1982).
12. Sec G. Dosi, 'Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories: A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinants and Directions of Technical Change', Research Policy, 6, 1982, pp. 147-162; G. Dosi, 'The Nature of the Innovation Process', in G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg & L. Soete (Eds), Technical Change and Economic Theory (London, Pinter Publishers, 1988), pp. 221-238. R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, 'In Search of Useful Theory of Innovation', Research Policy, 6, 1977, pp. 36-76; R. R. Nelson & S. G. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change (Cambridge, MA, Bellknap Press, 1982).
13. Dosi, 1982, op. cit., Ref. 7, p. 153.
14. Nelson and Winter, 1977, op. cit., Ref. 7, p. 57.
15. G. Dosi, 'Sources, Procedures and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation', Journal of Economic Literature, 26, 1988, pp. 1120-1171.
16. For this reason, Rip and Schot have been advancing quasi-evolutionary theories based on a conceptualization of the interaction between selection environment and the variation process. In their conceptualization, variation and selection are neither independent nor coincidental processes. Selection may be anticipated, temporarily excluded or attenuated in the variation process (through processes of niche formation). In addition, institutional links exist between variation and selection, the so-called technological nexus. A. Rip, 'A Quasi-evolutionary Model of Technological Development and a Cognitive Approach to Technology Policy', Rivista di Studi Epistemologici e Sociali Sulla Scienza e la Tecnologia, 2, 1992, pp. 69-103; J. Schot, 'The Policy-relevance of the Quasi-evolutionary Model: The Case of Stimulating Clean Technologies', in: R. Coombs, P. Saviotti & V. Walsh (Eds), Technological Change and Company Strategies (London, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992), pp. 185-200; J. Schot, 'The Usefulness of Evolutionary Models for Explaining Innovation. The Case of The Netherlands in the Nineteenth Century', History, and Technology, forthcoming.
17. For this reason, Rip and Schot have been advancing quasi-evolutionary theories based on a conceptualization of the interaction between selection environment and the variation process. In their conceptualization, variation and selection are neither independent nor coincidental processes. Selection may be anticipated, temporarily excluded or attenuated in the variation process (through processes of niche formation). In addition, institutional links exist between variation and selection, the so-called technological nexus. A. Rip, 'A Quasi-evolutionary Model of Technological Development and a Cognitive Approach to Technology Policy', Rivista di Studi Epistemologici e Sociali Sulla Scienza e la Tecnologia, 2, 1992, pp. 69-103; J. Schot, 'The Policy-relevance of the Quasi-evolutionary Model: The Case of Stimulating Clean Technologies', in: R. Coombs, P. Saviotti & V. Walsh (Eds), Technological Change and Company Strategies (London, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992), pp. 185-200; J. Schot, 'The Usefulness of Evolutionary Models for Explaining Innovation. The Case of The Netherlands in the Nineteenth Century', History, and Technology, forthcoming.
18. For this reason, Rip and Schot have been advancing quasi-evolutionary theories based on a conceptualization of the interaction between selection environment and the variation process. In their conceptualization, variation and selection are neither independent nor coincidental processes. Selection may be anticipated, temporarily excluded or attenuated in the variation process (through processes of niche formation). In addition, institutional links exist between variation and selection, the so-called technological nexus. A. Rip, 'A Quasi-evolutionary Model of Technological Development and a Cognitive Approach to Technology Policy', Rivista di Studi Epistemologici e Sociali Sulla Scienza e la Tecnologia, 2, 1992, pp. 69-103; J. Schot, 'The Policy-relevance of the Quasi-evolutionary Model: The Case of Stimulating Clean Technologies', in: R. Coombs, P. Saviotti & V. Walsh (Eds), Technological Change and Company Strategies (London, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992), pp. 185-200; J. Schot, 'The Usefulness of Evolutionary Models for Explaining Innovation. The Case of The Netherlands in the Nineteenth Century', History, and Technology, forthcoming.
19. The discussion of these barriers and included empirical examples are taken from B. Elzen, R. Hoogma & J. Schot. Mobiliteit met Toekomst. Naar eem I'raaggericht Technologiebeleid, Report for the Dutch Ministry of Traffic and Transport (The Hague, Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat, 1996) . The report will be available in English through a commercial publisher in 1998. For similar accounts of barriers, we refer to E. Tengström, Why Have the Political Decision-makers Failed to Sake the Problem of Car Traffic? (Gothenberg, University of Gothenberg, Reports in Human Technology no. 2, 1994), and Hard and Knie, op. cit., Ref. 5.
20. The discussion of these barriers and included empirical examples are taken from B. Elzen, R. Hoogma & J. Schot. Mobiliteit met Toekomst. Naar eem I'raaggericht Technologiebeleid, Report for the Dutch Ministry of Traffic and Transport (The Hague, Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat, 1996) . The report will be available in English through a commercial publisher in 1998. For similar accounts of barriers, we refer to E. Tengström, Why Have the Political Decision-makers Failed to Sake the Problem of Car Traffic? (Gothenberg, University of Gothenberg, Reports in Human Technology no. 2, 1994), and Hard and Knie, op. cit., Ref. 5.
21. The discussion of these barriers and included empirical examples are taken from B. Elzen, R. Hoogma & J. Schot. Mobiliteit met Toekomst. Naar eem I'raaggericht Technologiebeleid, Report for the Dutch Ministry of Traffic and Transport (The Hague, Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat, 1996) . The report will be available in English through a commercial publisher in 1998. For similar accounts of barriers, we refer to E. Tengström, Why Have the Political Decision-makers Failed to Sake the Problem of Car Traffic? (Gothenberg, University of Gothenberg, Reports in Human Technology no. 2, 1994), and Hard and Knie, op. cit., Ref. 5.
22. Elzen et al., op. cit., Ref. 12.
23. The ZEV legislation may be changed to include hybrid-electric vehicles, to be defined as 'equivalent zero emissions vehicles'.
24. For this notion, see R. Kemp & L. Soete, 'The Greening of Technological Progress: An Evolutionary Perspective', Futures, 24, 1992, pp. 437-457.
25. Since an exhaust gas catalyst does not function well at low temperatures, pre-heating the catalyst markedly reduces the level of harmful emissions. The catalyst can be pre-heated with electricity from the grid or with a device that stores engine heat and releases it when the engine is started. Petrol cars can be equipped with a pre-heated catalyst without further changes to the vehicle. Alternative, cold-start emissions may be stored and treated when the catalyst is warmed up.
26. J. F. Porac, J. A. Rosa & M. S. Saxon, 'America's Family Vehicle: The Minivan Market as an Enacted Conceptual System', Paper for the Multidisciplinary International Workshop on Path Creation and Dependence, Copenhagen Business School, August 1997.
27. The typical range of a current generation electric vehicle is 100 km, the top speed 90 km/h, and charging takes some 6 hours. Refuelling a natural gas vehicle also takes longer than refuelling a conventional car. On the other hand, hybrid-electric cars have none of these disadvantages. Their market introduction could thus be as successful as that of the minivans. Even the cost aspect is comparable: minivans are substantially more expensive than conventional cars and so are hybrids expected to be.
28. Dosi, op. cit., Ref. 7;
29. Nelson & Winter op. cit., Ref. 7. Nelson & Winter, ibid., p. 57.
30. Nelson & Winter op. cit., Ref. 7. Nelson & Winter, ibid., p. 57.
31. The selection environment is also shaped by the experience of users and the adjustment of users (both companies and consumers) to particular technologies. For a discussion of co-evolution of technology and society, see A. Rip & R. Kemp, 'Technological Change', in: S. Rayner & E. L. Malone (Eds), Human Choice and Climate Change, Volume II, Resources and Technology (Washington DC, Batelle Press, 1998) ; and A. H. Molina, 'In Search of Insights into the Generation of Technoeconomic Trends: Micro- and Macro-constituencies in the Microprocessor Industry', Research Policy, 22, 1993, pp. 479-506. Molina does not refer to the concept of co-evolution, but argues in similar way (pp. 483): "Sociotechnical constituencies may be defined as dynamic ensembles of technical constituents (tools, machines, etc.) and social constituents (people and their values, interest groups, etc.), which interact and shape each other in the course the creation, production and diffusion of specific technologies. Thus the term 'sociotechnical constituencies' emphasises the idea of interrelatedment. It makes it possible to think of technical constituents and social constituents stressing the point that in the technological process both kind of constituents merge into each other." Finally, we refer to R. Garud & M. A. Rappa, 'A Socio-cognitive Model of Technological Evolution: The Case of Cochlear Implants', Organzation Science, 5, 1994, pp. 344-362.
32. The selection environment is also shaped by the experience of users and the adjustment of users (both companies and consumers) to particular technologies. For a discussion of co-evolution of technology and society, see A. Rip & R. Kemp, 'Technological Change', in: S. Rayner & E. L. Malone (Eds), Human Choice and Climate Change, Volume II, Resources and Technology (Washington DC, Batelle Press, 1998) ; and A. H. Molina, 'In Search of Insights into the Generation of Technoeconomic Trends: Micro- and Macro-constituencies in the Microprocessor Industry', Research Policy, 22, 1993, pp. 479-506. Molina does not refer to the concept of co-evolution, but argues in similar way (pp. 483): "Sociotechnical constituencies may be defined as dynamic ensembles of technical constituents (tools, machines, etc.) and social constituents (people and their values, interest groups, etc.), which interact and shape each other in the course the creation, production and diffusion of specific technologies. Thus the term 'sociotechnical constituencies' emphasises the idea of interrelatedment. It makes it possible to think of technical constituents and social constituents stressing the point that in the technological process both kind of constituents merge into each other." Finally, we refer to R. Garud & M. A. Rappa, 'A Socio-cognitive Model of Technological Evolution: The Case of Cochlear Implants', Organzation Science, 5, 1994, pp. 344-362.
33. The selection environment is also shaped by the experience of users and the adjustment of users (both companies and consumers) to particular technologies. For a discussion of co-evolution of technology and society, see A. Rip & R. Kemp, 'Technological Change', in: S. Rayner & E. L. Malone (Eds), Human Choice and Climate Change, Volume II, Resources and Technology (Washington DC, Batelle Press, 1998) ; and A. H. Molina, 'In Search of Insights into the Generation of Technoeconomic Trends: Micro- and Macro-constituencies in the Microprocessor Industry', Research Policy, 22, 1993, pp. 479-506. Molina does not refer to the concept of co-evolution, but argues in similar way (pp. 483): "Sociotechnical constituencies may be defined as dynamic ensembles of technical constituents (tools, machines, etc.) and social constituents (people and their values, interest groups, etc.), which interact and shape each other in the course the creation, production and diffusion of specific technologies. Thus the term 'sociotechnical constituencies' emphasises the idea of interrelatedment. It makes it possible to think of technical constituents and social constituents stressing the point that in the technological process both kind of constituents merge into each other." Finally, we refer to R. Garud & M. A. Rappa, 'A Socio-cognitive Model of Technological Evolution: The Case of Cochlear Implants', Organzation Science, 5, 1994, pp. 344-362.
34. In Rip and Kemp, op. cit., Ref. 21,
35. the structured nature of a technological regime is accentuated by defining a technological regime as the coherent complex of scientific knowledges, engineering practices, production process technologies, product characteristics, skills and procedures, and institutions and infrastructures that are labelled in terms of a certain technology (for example, a computer), mode of work organization (for example, the Fordist system of mass production) or key input (like steel or hydrocarbons). Since the accommodation between the elements in the complex in never perfect, it is perhaps better to talk about a semi-coherent complex. For similar definitions see R. Kemp, 'Technology' and the Transition to Environmental Sustainability. The Problem of Technological Regime Shifts', Futures, 26, 1994, pp. 1023-1046
36. ; R. Kemp, Environmental Polity and Technical Change. A Comparison of the Technological Impact of Policy Instruments (Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 1997).
37. Large technical systems as defined by Thomas Hughes can be seen as a special kind of regime, one in which material connections and the building up of an infrastructure are crucial to its diffusion. This creates special effects (the importance of load management), and leads to what Hughes has called momentum. T. P. Hughes, Networks of Power. Electrification in Western Society 1880-1930 (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1983).
38. It is important to note that a technological regime does not fix technological choices, but is open to various kinds of change - at the level of regime components and even the overall architecture. Technological regimes change in conjunction with the evolution of social needs, technological possibilities and organizational change like new management systems.
39. See, Rosenberg 'The Direction of Technological Change: Inducement Mechanisms and Focussing Devices', in his book Perspectives on Technology (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1976), pp. 108-125 ; and Fransman, The Market and Beyond. Cooperation and Competition in Information Technology in the Japanese System (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1990).
40. See, Rosenberg 'The Direction of Technological Change: Inducement Mechanisms and Focussing Devices', in his book Perspectives on Technology (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1976), pp. 108-125 ; and Fransman, The Market and Beyond. Cooperation and Competition in Information Technology in the Japanese System (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1990).
41. R. Kemp, I. Miles, K. Smith et al., Technology and the Transition to Environmental Stability. Continuity and Change in Complex Technology Systems, final report of the project 'Technological Paradigms and Transition Paths: The Case of Energy Technologies' for the SEER research programme of the Commission of the European Communities (DG-XII), 1994.
42. When steamships entered the market, sailing ship manufacturers stepped up their efforts to improve sailing ships in order to protect their business. This resulted in great improvements which helped sailing ships to survive the competition for a certain while.
43. See also A. Rip, 'Introduction of New Technology: Making Use of Recent Insights from Sociology and Economics of Technology', Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7, 1995, pp. 417-431.
44. Hughes, op. cit., Ref. 23.
45. For these and other examples see Schot, forthcoming, op. cit., Ref. 11.
46. The use of process management as a means of social-political governance has been advocated by various policy scientists. See, for instance, J. Kooiman (Ed.), Modem Governance. New Government-Society Interactions (London, Sage, 1993); P. Glasbergen (Ed.), Managing Environmental Disputes. Network Management as an Alternative (Dordrecht, Kluwver, 1994)
47. The use of process management as a means of social-political governance has been advocated by various policy scientists. See, for instance, J. Kooiman (Ed.), Modem Governance. New Government-Society Interactions (London, Sage, 1993); P. Glasbergen (Ed.), Managing Environmental Disputes. Network Management as an Alternative (Dordrecht, Kluwver, 1994)
48. . 32. J. W. Schot, B. Elzen & R. Hoogma, 'Strategies for Shifting Technological Systems. The Case of the Automobile System', Futures, 26, 1994, pp. 1060-1076 ; and J. Schot & A. Rip, 'The Past and Future of Constructive Technology Assessment', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1997, pp. 251-268.
49. . 32. J. W. Schot, B. Elzen & R. Hoogma, 'Strategies for Shifting Technological Systems. The Case of the Automobile System', Futures, 26, 1994, pp. 1060-1076 ; and J. Schot & A. Rip, 'The Past and Future of Constructive Technology Assessment', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1997, pp. 251-268.
50. This definition is based on J. Schot, A. Slob & R. Hoogma, Implementatie van Duurzame Technologie als een Strategisch Nuhe Management Probleem (Den Haag, Programma Duurzame Technologische Ontwikkeling, 1994), Werkdocument CST3. The concept of strategic niche management is under development in the EU funded project 'Strategic Niche Management as a Tool for Transition to a Sustainable Transport System'. For more information, contact the authors or visit the website: http://www.jrc.es/strategic niche management/.
51. We specifically include the adjective 'strategic' in the label of the approach, to stress the importance of anticipation. In running an experiment, the actors should adopt a forward-looking perspective, by anticipating emerging opportunities and possible threats that create, widen or close windows of opportunity.
52. See also K. Green, 'Creating Demand for Biotechnology: Shaping Technologies and Markets', in: Coombs et al., op. cit., Ref. 11, pp. 164-184.
53. See also M. Teubal, 'A Catalytic Evolutionar)- Approach to Horizontal Technology Policies', Research Policy, 25, 1997, pp. 1161-1188. Teubal calls for technology policy as a succession of experiments (p. 1165).
54. Based on J. Schot et al., op. cit., Ref. 33.
55. For a discussion of technological expectations, see A. Rip, 'A Quasi-evolutionary Model of Technological Development and a Cognitive Approach to Technology Policy', Rivista di Studi Epistemoligici e Sociali Sulla Scienza e la Technologia, 2, 1992, pp. 69-103; and H. van Lente, 'Promising Technology. The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological Developments', PhD thesis, Enschede, University of Twente, 1993.
56. For a discussion of technological expectations, see A. Rip, 'A Quasi-evolutionary Model of Technological Development and a Cognitive Approach to Technology Policy', Rivista di Studi Epistemoligici e Sociali Sulla Scienza e la Technologia, 2, 1992, pp. 69-103; and H. van Lente, 'Promising Technology. The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological Developments', PhD thesis, Enschede, University of Twente, 1993.
57. For the notion of articulation process we refer to K. B. B. Clark, 'The Interaction of Design Hierarchies and Market Concepts in Technological Evolution', Research Policy, 14, 1985, pp. 235-251.
58. Under the Dutch road tax system, electric vehicles fall in the heavily taxed 'rest' category; moreover, road vehicles are taxed according to their weight, which puts electric vehicles, with their heavy batteries, at a disadvantage. To take care of this problem, the Dutch government announced that it would give a tax break and investment subsidy to electric vehicles. A similar policy exists in the UK where electric vehicles are exempted from excise taxes.
59. See Schot el al., 1994, op. cit., Ref. 32.
60. See Rip & Kemp, op. cit., Ref. 21; Molina, op. cit., Ref. 21.
61. See Rip & Kemp, op. cit., Ref. 21; Molina, op. cit., Ref. 21.
62. See A. Rip, Th. J. Misa & J. Schot, Managing Technology in Society. The Approach of Constructive Technology Assessment (London, Pinter Publishers, 1995).
63. See, for example, D. Wallace, Environmental Policy and Industrial Innovation. Strategies in Europe, US and Japan (London, Earthscan Publishers, 1995).
64. P. A. David, 'Path-dependence in Economic Processes: Implications for Policy Analysis in Dynamical System Contexts', CEPR discussion paper, Stanford, 1992.