메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 12, 2012, Pages 3559-3579

Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change

Author keywords

Climate change impacts; Statistical downscaling; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREE; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE VARIABLES; CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION; DOWN-SCALING; DOWNSCALING METHODS; ENSEMBLE AVERAGING; EXTREME RAINFALL; HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS; MODEL OUTPUTS; MODELING UNCERTAINTIES; PERFORMANCE BASED; PERFORMANCE MEASURE; REANALYSIS; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING; SYSTEM PERFORMANCE MEASURES; TRAINING AND TESTING; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84865461567     PISSN: 09204741     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0090-5     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (52)
  • 1
    • 0034174280 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Artificial neural networks in hydrology-I: preliminary concepts
    • ASCE
    • ASCE (2000a) Artificial neural networks in hydrology-I: preliminary concepts. J Hydrol Eng 5(2): 115-123.
    • (2000) J Hydrol Eng , vol.5 , Issue.2 , pp. 115-123
  • 2
    • 0034174396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Artificial neural networks in hydrology-II: hydrologic applications
    • ASCE
    • ASCE (2000b) Artificial neural networks in hydrology-II: hydrologic applications. J Hydrol Eng 5(2): 124-137.
    • (2000) J Hydrol Eng , vol.5 , Issue.2 , pp. 124-137
  • 3
    • 80855137361 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Watershed modeling to assessing impacts of potential climate change on water supply availability
    • Bekele EG, Knapp HV (2010) Watershed modeling to assessing impacts of potential climate change on water supply availability. Water Resour Manag 24(13): 3299-3320.
    • (2010) Water Resour Manag , vol.24 , Issue.13 , pp. 3299-3320
    • Bekele, E.G.1    Knapp, H.V.2
  • 4
    • 0036499322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Downscaling recent stream-flow conditions in British Columbia, Canada using ensemble neural networks
    • Cannon AJ, Whitfield PH (2002) Downscaling recent stream-flow conditions in British Columbia, Canada using ensemble neural networks. J Hydrol 259: 136-151.
    • (2002) J Hydrol , vol.259 , pp. 136-151
    • Cannon, A.J.1    Whitfield, P.H.2
  • 5
    • 0031944625 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 precipitation changes for the susquehanna basin: down-scaling from the genesis general circulation model
    • 2 precipitation changes for the susquehanna basin: down-scaling from the genesis general circulation model. Int J Climatol 18: 65-76.
    • (1998) Int J Climatol , vol.18 , pp. 65-76
    • Crane, R.G.1    Hewitson, B.C.2
  • 6
    • 0035398081 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model induction with support vector machines: introduction and applications
    • Dibike YB, Velickov S, Solomatine D, Abbott MB (2001) Model induction with support vector machines: introduction and applications. J Comput Civ Eng, ASCE 15(3): 208-216.
    • (2001) J Comput Civ Eng, ASCE , vol.15 , Issue.3 , pp. 208-216
    • Dibike, Y.B.1    Velickov, S.2    Solomatine, D.3    Abbott, M.B.4
  • 7
    • 28044432777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century
    • doi:10.1029/2005JD005919
    • Dessai S, Lu X, Hulme M (2005) Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. J Geophys Res 110: D19108. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD005919.
    • (2005) J Geophys Res , vol.110 , pp. 19108
    • Dessai, S.1    Lu, X.2    Hulme, M.3
  • 8
    • 1942528767 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A study of two stochastic search methods for structural control
    • Domer B, Raphael B, Shea K, Smith IFC (2003) A study of two stochastic search methods for structural control. J Comput Civ Eng 17(3): 132-141.
    • (2003) J Comput Civ Eng , vol.17 , Issue.3 , pp. 132-141
    • Domer, B.1    Raphael, B.2    Shea, K.3    Smith, I.F.C.4
  • 9
    • 0033039975 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of regional climate scenarios using a downscaling approach
    • Easterling DR (1999) Development of regional climate scenarios using a downscaling approach. Clim Change 41: 615-634.
    • (1999) Clim Change , vol.41 , pp. 615-634
    • Easterling, D.R.1
  • 10
    • 84755161639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrated reservoir management system for adaptation to climate change: the Nakdong River Basin in Korea
    • Eum H-I, Simonovic S (2010) Integrated reservoir management system for adaptation to climate change: the Nakdong River Basin in Korea. Water Resour Manag 24(13): 3397-3417.
    • (2010) Water Resour Manag , vol.24 , Issue.13 , pp. 3397-3417
    • Eum, H.-I.1    Simonovic, S.2
  • 11
    • 33644588724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future rainfall scenario over Orissa with GCM projections by statistical downscaling
    • Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2006) Future rainfall scenario over Orissa with GCM projections by statistical downscaling. Curr Sci 90(3): 396-404.
    • (2006) Curr Sci , vol.90 , Issue.3 , pp. 396-404
    • Ghosh, S.1    Mujumdar, P.P.2
  • 12
    • 36649014937 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonparametric methods for modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty in drought assessment
    • doi:10.1029/2006WR005351
    • Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2007) Nonparametric methods for modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty in drought assessment. Water Resour Res 43: W07405. doi: 10. 1029/2006WR005351.
    • (2007) Water Resour Res , vol.43 , pp. 7405
    • Ghosh, S.1    Mujumdar, P.P.2
  • 13
    • 36049032414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine
    • Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2008) Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine. Adv Water Resour 31(1): 132-146.
    • (2008) Adv Water Resour , vol.31 , Issue.1 , pp. 132-146
    • Ghosh, S.1    Mujumdar, P.P.2
  • 14
    • 72049103978 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change impact assessment: uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability
    • doi:10.1029/2008JD011648
    • Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2009) Climate change impact assessment: uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability. J Geophys Res 114: D18113. doi: 10. 1029/2008JD011648.
    • (2009) J Geophys Res , vol.114
    • Ghosh, S.1    Mujumdar, P.P.2
  • 15
    • 78649379370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SVM-PGSL coupled approach for statistical downscaling to predict rainfall from GCM output
    • doi:10.1029/2009JD013548
    • Ghosh S (2010) SVM-PGSL coupled approach for statistical downscaling to predict rainfall from GCM output. J Geophys Res 115: D22102. doi: 10. 1029/2009JD013548.
    • (2010) J Geophys Res , vol.115
    • Ghosh, S.1
  • 16
    • 0348044464 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability of regional climate change calculated using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method
    • doi:10.1029/2003GL017130
    • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2003) Probability of regional climate change calculated using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method. Geophys Res Lett 30(12): 1629. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL017130.
    • (2003) Geophys Res Lett , vol.30 , Issue.12 , pp. 1629
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.O.2
  • 17
    • 33845308814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment
    • doi:10.1126/science.1132027
    • Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D et al (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314: 1442. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1132027.
    • (2006) Science , vol.314 , pp. 1442
    • Goswami, B.N.1    Venugopal, V.2    Sengupta, D.3
  • 20
    • 0027042223 scopus 로고
    • Large-scale atmospheric controls on local precipitation in tropical Mexico
    • Hewitson BC, Crane RG (1992) Large-scale atmospheric controls on local precipitation in tropical Mexico. Geophys Res Lett 19(18): 1835-1838.
    • (1992) Geophys Res Lett , vol.19 , Issue.18 , pp. 1835-1838
    • Hewitson, B.C.1    Crane, R.G.2
  • 21
    • 0028254910 scopus 로고
    • A class of stochastic models for relating synoptic atmospheric patterns to regional hydrologic phenomena
    • Hughes JP, Guttorp P (1994) A class of stochastic models for relating synoptic atmospheric patterns to regional hydrologic phenomena. Water Resour Res 30(5): 1535-1546.
    • (1994) Water Resour Res , vol.30 , Issue.5 , pp. 1535-1546
    • Hughes, J.P.1    Guttorp, P.2
  • 22
    • 84863395019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Streamflow response to climate change in the Brahmani River Basin, India
    • doi:10.1007/s11269-011-9965-0
    • Islam A, Sikka AK, Saha B, Singh A (2012) Streamflow response to climate change in the Brahmani River Basin, India. Water Resour Manage 26(6): 1409-1424. doi: 10. 1007/s11269-011-9965-0.
    • (2012) Water Resour Manage , vol.26 , Issue.6 , pp. 1409-1424
    • Islam, A.1    Sikka, A.K.2    Saha, B.3    Singh, A.4
  • 24
    • 0028984747 scopus 로고
    • Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional-climate model. I: assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries
    • Jones PD, Murphy JM, Noguer M (1995) Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional-climate model. I: assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries. Q J R Meteorol Soc 121: 1413-1449.
    • (1995) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.121 , pp. 1413-1449
    • Jones, P.D.1    Murphy, J.M.2    Noguer, M.3
  • 26
    • 32044447474 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods
    • doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.035
    • Khan SJ, Coulibaly P, Dibike Y (2006a) Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods. J Hydrol 319(1-4): 357-382. doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2005. 06. 035.
    • (2006) J Hydrol , vol.319 , Issue.1-4 , pp. 357-382
    • Khan, S.J.1    Coulibaly, P.2    Dibike, Y.3
  • 27
    • 33748791756 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods using CGCM predictors
    • Khan SJ, Coulibaly P, Dibike Y (2006b) Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods using CGCM predictors. Hydrol Process 20(14): 3085-3104.
    • (2006) Hydrol Process , vol.20 , Issue.14 , pp. 3085-3104
    • Khan, S.J.1    Coulibaly, P.2    Dibike, Y.3
  • 28
    • 79952984157 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of daily rainfall state in a river basin using statistical downscaling from GCM Output
    • doi:10.1007/s00477-010-0415-y
    • Kannan S, Ghosh S (2010) Prediction of daily rainfall state in a river basin using statistical downscaling from GCM Output. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. doi: 10. 1007/s00477-010-0415-y.
    • (2010) Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess
    • Kannan, S.1    Ghosh, S.2
  • 29
    • 40049108152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Basin-scale stream-flow forecasting using the information of large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena
    • Maity R, Nagesh Kumar D (2008) Basin-scale stream-flow forecasting using the information of large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena. Hydrol Process 22: 643-650.
    • (2008) Hydrol Process , vol.22 , pp. 643-650
    • Maity, R.1    Nagesh Kumar, D.2
  • 30
    • 70350338725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptation to climate change in the management of a Canadian water-resources system exploited for hydropower
    • Miniville M, Brissette F, Krau D, Leconte R (2009) Adaptation to climate change in the management of a Canadian water-resources system exploited for hydropower. Water Resour Manag 23(14): 2965-2986.
    • (2009) Water Resour Manag , vol.23 , Issue.14 , pp. 2965-2986
    • Miniville, M.1    Brissette, F.2    Krau, D.3    Leconte, R.4
  • 31
    • 49449117218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty using a possibilistic approach: application to the Mahanadi River, India
    • doi:10.1029/2007WR006137
    • Mujumdar PP, Ghosh S (2008) Modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty using a possibilistic approach: application to the Mahanadi River, India. Water Resour Res 44: W06407. doi: 10. 1029/2007WR006137.
    • (2008) Water Resour Res , vol.44 , pp. 6407
    • Mujumdar, P.P.1    Ghosh, S.2
  • 32
    • 0001020829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte Carlo approach
    • New M, Hulme M (2000) Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte Carlo approach. Integr Assess 1: 203-213.
    • (2000) Integr Assess , vol.1 , pp. 203-213
    • New, M.1    Hulme, M.2
  • 33
    • 0002994332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A multi-objective fuzzy classification of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns for precipitation modeling
    • Ozelkan EC, Galambosi A, Duckstein L (1998) A multi-objective fuzzy classification of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns for precipitation modeling. Appl Math Comput 91(2-3): 127-142.
    • (1998) Appl Math Comput , vol.91 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 127-142
    • Ozelkan, E.C.1    Galambosi, A.2    Duckstein, L.3
  • 34
    • 80255138581 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change risk management in transnational river basins: the Rhine
    • Pelt SCV, Swart RJ (2011) Climate change risk management in transnational river basins: the Rhine. Water Resour Manag 25(14): 3837-3861.
    • (2011) Water Resour Manag , vol.25 , Issue.14 , pp. 3837-3861
    • Pelt, S.C.V.1    Swart, R.J.2
  • 35
    • 0037853076 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments
    • Prudhomme C, Jakob D, Svensson C (2003) Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments. J Hydrol 277: 1-23.
    • (2003) J Hydrol , vol.277 , pp. 1-23
    • Prudhomme, C.1    Jakob, D.2    Svensson, C.3
  • 36
    • 72149097338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A conditional random field based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin
    • doi:10.1029/2008WR007487
    • Raje D, Mujumdar PP (2009) A conditional random field based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin. Water Resour Res 45(10): W10404. doi: 10. 1029/2008WR007487.
    • (2009) Water Resour Res , vol.45 , Issue.10 , pp. 10404
    • Raje, D.1    Mujumdar, P.P.2
  • 37
    • 77955372451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: nonstationarity in downscaling
    • doi:10.1029/2009WR008425
    • Raje D, Mujumdar PP (2010) Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: nonstationarity in downscaling. Water Resour Res 46: W07543. doi: 10. 1029/2009WR008425.
    • (2010) Water Resour Res , vol.46 , pp. 7543
    • Raje, D.1    Mujumdar, P.P.2
  • 38
    • 0041736698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A direct stochastic algorithm for global search
    • Raphael B, Smith IFC (2003) A direct stochastic algorithm for global search. J Appl Math Comput 146(2-3): 729-758.
    • (2003) J Appl Math Comput , vol.142 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 729-758
    • Raphael, B.1    Smith, I.F.C.2
  • 39
    • 0035875227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Downscaling temperature and precipitation: a comparison of regression-based methods and artificial neural networks
    • Schoof JT, Pryor SC (2001) Downscaling temperature and precipitation: a comparison of regression-based methods and artificial neural networks. Int J Climatol 21: 773-790.
    • (2001) Int J Climatol , vol.21 , pp. 773-790
    • Schoof, J.T.1    Pryor, S.C.2
  • 41
    • 60549102872 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NN5: a neural network based approach for the downscaling of precipitation fields-model description and preliminary results
    • Tomassettia B, Verdecchiaa M, Giorgic F (2009) NN5: a neural network based approach for the downscaling of precipitation fields-model description and preliminary results. J Hydrol 367(1-2): 14-26.
    • (2009) J Hydrol , vol.367 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 14-26
    • Tomassettia, B.1    Verdecchiaa, M.2    Giorgic, F.3
  • 42
    • 0035673174 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques
    • Trigo RM, Palutikof JP (2001) Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques. J Climate 14: 4422-4446.
    • (2001) J Climate , vol.14 , pp. 4422-4446
    • Trigo, R.M.1    Palutikof, J.P.2
  • 43
    • 33750018142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: a support vector machine approach
    • Tripathi S, Srinivas VV, Nanjundiah RS (2006) Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: a support vector machine approach. J Hydrol 330: 621-640.
    • (2006) J Hydrol , vol.330 , pp. 621-640
    • Tripathi, S.1    Srinivas, V.V.2    Nanjundiah, R.S.3
  • 46
    • 0344038754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linear versus nonlinear techniques in downscaling
    • Weichert A, Burger G (1998) Linear versus nonlinear techniques in downscaling. Clim Res 10: 83-93.
    • (1998) Clim Res , vol.10 , pp. 83-93
    • Weichert, A.1    Burger, G.2
  • 47
    • 0032568119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling of hydrometeorological variables using general circulation model output
    • Wilby RL, Hassan H, Hanaki K (1998) Statistical downscaling of hydrometeorological variables using general circulation model output. J Hydrol 205: 1-19.
    • (1998) J Hydrol , vol.205 , pp. 1-19
    • Wilby, R.L.1    Hassan, H.2    Hanaki, K.3
  • 48
    • 0031760260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: a comparison of methods
    • doi:10.1029/98WR02577
    • Wilby RL, Wigley TML, Conway D, Jones PD, Hewitson BC, Main J, Wilks DS (1998) Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: a comparison of methods. Water Resour Res 34(11): 2995-3008. doi: 10. 1029/98WR02577.
    • (1998) Water Resour Res , vol.34 , Issue.11 , pp. 2995-3008
    • Wilby, R.L.1    Wigley, T.M.L.2    Conway, D.3    Jones, P.D.4    Hewitson, B.C.5    Main, J.6    Wilks, D.S.7
  • 51
    • 0033237208 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and hydrologic models: a review of existing gaps and recent research developments
    • Xu C-Y (1999) Climate change and hydrologic models: a review of existing gaps and recent research developments. Water Resour Manag 13(5): 369-382.
    • (1999) Water Resour Manag , vol.13 , Issue.5 , pp. 369-382
    • Xu, C.-Y.1
  • 52
    • 14244264451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate
    • Xu C-Y, Singh VP (2004) Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resour Manag 18(6): 591-612.
    • (2004) Water Resour Manag , vol.18 , Issue.6 , pp. 591-612
    • Xu, C.-Y.1    Singh, V.P.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.