Assessing future climate changes and extreme indicators in east and south Asia using the RegCM4 regional climate model

Climatic Change

Volumn 114, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 301-317

  Gu, Huanghe ^a,b   Wang, Guiling ^b   Yu, Zhongbo ^a,c   Mei, Rui ^b  

^a HOHAI UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION; BOUNDARY FORCING; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; FROST DAYS; GROWING SEASON; HOTSPOTS; MODEL DOMAINS; MODEL PERFORMANCE; RAIN-INTENSITY; REANALYSIS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SEASONALITY; SOUTH ASIA; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; TEMPERATURE INCREASE; YANGTZE RIVER BASIN;

CLIMATE CHANGE; RAIN;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DROUGHT; ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATOR; EXTREME EVENT; FLOODING; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONALITY; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; TEMPERATURE PROFILE;

CHINA; FAR EAST; INDIA; SOUTH ASIA;

EID: 84865416089     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0411-y     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Akio K, Masahiro H, Yukkimasa A, Kenji K (2005) Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2. Adv Atmos Sci 22: 467-478. doi: 10. 1007/BF02918481.
2. Anderson CJ, Arritt RW, Kain JS (2007) An alternative mass flux profile in the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization and its effects in seasonal precipitation. J Hydrometeorol 8: 1128-1140. doi: 10. 1175/JHM624. 1.
3. Bartholy J, Pongrácz R (2007) Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001. Global Planet Change 57: 83-95. doi: 10. 1016/j. gloplacha. 2006. 11. 002.
4. Boer GJ (1993) Climate change and the regulation of the surface moisture and energy budgets. Clim Dynam 8: 225-239. doi: 10. 1007/BF00198617.
5. Chen HP, Sun JQ, Chen XL and Zhou W (2010) CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. Int J Climatol 31: n/a. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 2278.
6. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the Fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York.
7. Ding YH, Shi XL, Liu YM et al (2006) Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part 1: sensitivity study. Adv Atmos Sci 23: 323-341. doi: 10. 1007/s00376-006-0323-8.
8. Dirks KN, Hay JE, Stow CD, Harris D (1998) High-resolution studies of rainfall on Norfolk Island, Part 2: interpolation of rainfall data. J Hydrol 208: 187-193. doi: 10. 1016/S0022-1694(98)00155-3.
9. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C et al (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289: 2068-2074. doi: 10. 1126/science. 289. 5487. 2068.
10. Elguindi N, Bi XQ and Giorgi F et al. (2011) Regional climatic model RegCM user mannual version 4. 1, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Strada Costiera, Trieste.
11. Emanuel KA (1991) A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models. J Atmos Sci 48: 2313-2329. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0469(1991) 048< 2313: ASFRCC> 2. 0. CO; 2.
12. Emanuel KA, Zivkovic-Rothman M (1999) Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 56: 1766-1782. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0469(1999) 056< 1766: DAEOAC> 2. 0. CO; 2.
13. Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C (2007) Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int J Climatol 27: 1547-1578. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1556.
14. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P et al (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth cnetury. Climate Res 19: 193-212. doi: 10. 3354/cr019193.
15. Gao X, Xu Y, Zhao Z et al (2006) On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol 86: 173-185. doi: 10. 1007/s00704-005-0214-4.
16. Gao X, Shi Y, Song R et al (2008) Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorol Atmos Phys 100: 73-86. doi: 10. 1007/s00703-008-0296-5.
17. Gao X, Shi Y and Zhang DF et al (2011) Uncertainties of monsoon precipitation projection over China: results from two high resolution RCM simulations. Clim Res In Review.
18. Gillett NP, Zwiers FW, Weaver AJ et al (2002) Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys Res Lett 29: 1970-1973. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL015836.
19. Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2002) Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate change form AOGCM simulations via the "Reliability Ensemble Averaging" (REA) method. J Climate 15: 1141-1158. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2002) 015< 1141: COAURA> 2. 0. CO; 2.
20. Giorgi F, Shields C (1999) Tests of precipitation parameterizations available in latest version of NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over continental United States. J Geophys Res 104: 6353-6375. doi: 10. 1029/98JD01164.
21. Giorgi F, Hewitson B and Christensen J et al (2001) 'Regional climate change information-Evaluation and projections'. In: Houghton JTEA (ed) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, Cambridge, pp 583-683.
22. Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bulletin 58: 175-183.
23. Giorgi F, Im ES, Coppola E, Diffenbaugh NS, Gao XJ, Mariotti L, Shi Y (2011a) Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming. J Clim 24: 5309-5324. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI3979. 1.
24. Giorgi F et al (2011b) RegCM4: model description and illustrative basic performance over selected CORDEX domains. Submitted to Clim Res.
25. IPCC (2000) IPCC sepcial report on emissions scenario: summary for policymakers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
26. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, New York.
27. Kalnay E, Kanamistu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. B Am Meteorol Soc 77: 437-471. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0477(1996) 077< 0437: TNYRP> 2. 0. CO; 2.
28. Kanamistu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J et al (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). B Am Meteorol Soc 83: 1631-1643. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-83-11-1631.
29. Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003) Modern global climate change. Science 302: 1719-1723. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1090228.
30. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang XB, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Climate 20: 1419-1444. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4066. 1.
31. Kiktev D, Sexton DMH, Alexander L, Folland CK (2003) Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J Climate 16: 3560-3571. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2003) 016< 3560: COMAOT> 2. 0. CO; 2.
32. Kumar KR, Sahai AK, Kumar KK et al (2006) High-resolution climate change scenarios for india for the 21st century. Curr Sci India 90: 334-345.
33. Leung LR, Zhong SY, Qian YF, Liu YM (2004) Evaluation of regional climate simulations of the 1998 and 1999 East Asian summer monsoon using the GAME/HUBEX observational data. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 82: 1695-1713. doi: 10. 2151/jmsj. 82. 1695.
34. Liang XZ, Kunkel KE, Meehl GA, Jones RG, Wang JXL (2008) Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections. Geophys Res Lett 35: L08709. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL032849.
35. Liu YX, Li X, Zhang Q, Guo YF et al (2010) Simulation of regional temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years and the next 30 years over China. Quatern Int 212: 57-63. doi: 10. 1016/j. quaint. 2009. 01. 007.
36. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25: 693-712. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1181.
37. Mo KC, Schemm JK, Juang HMH et al (2005) Impact of model resolution on the prediction of summer precipitation over the United States and Mexico. J Climate 18: 3910-3927. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3513. 1.
38. New MG, Hulme M, Jones PD (1999) Representing twentieth century space time climate variability. Part 1. Development of a 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Climate 12: 829-856. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(1999)012< 0829: RTCSTC> 2. 0. CO; 2.
39. Nitta T, Hu Z (1996) Summer climate variability in China and its association with 500 hPa height and tropical convection. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74: 425-445.
40. Oleson KW, Niu GY, Yang ZL et al (2008) Improvements to the community land model and their impact on the hydrological cycle. J Geophys Res-Biogeo 113: G1021. doi: 10. 1029/2007JG000563.
41. Rainsanen J, Joelsson R (2001) Changes in average and extreme precipitation in two regional climate model experiments. Tellus A 53: 547-566. doi: 10. 1034/j. 1600-0870. 2001. 00262. x.
42. Rauscher SA, Seth A, Qian JH, Camargo SJ (2006) Domain choice in an experimental nested modeling prediction system for South America. Theor Appl Climatol 86: 229-246. doi: 10. 1007/s00704-006-0206-z.
43. Rauscher SA, Coppola E, Piani C, Giorgi F (2010) Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal precipitation over Europe. Clim Dynam 35: 685-711. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0607-7.
44. Rayner NA, Parker DE and Horton EB et al (2006) UKMO - GISST/MOHMATN4/MOHSST6 - Global Ice coverage and SST (1856-2006), NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre.
45. Road J, Chen SC, Kanamistu M (2003) U. S. regional climate simulations and seasonal forecasts. J Geophys Res 108: 8606. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002232.
46. Schiermeier Q (2011) Increased flood risk linked to global warming. Nature 471: 316. doi: 10. 1038/470316a.
47. Seth A, Rauscher SA, Rojas M et al (2011) Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world? Clim Chang 104: 403-414. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-010-9973-8.
48. Sheffield J, Wood EF (2008) Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn 13(1): 79-105. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-007-0340-z.
49. Shi Y, Gao XJ, Zhang DF and Giorgi F (2011) Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra river basin in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Quatern Int (In press). doi: 10. 1016/j. quaint. 2011. 01. 041.
50. Singh GP, Oh JH, Kim JY, Kim OY (2006) Sensitivity of summer monsoon precipitation over East Asia to convective parameterization scheme in RegCM3. SOLA 2: 29-32. doi: 10. 2151/sola. 2006-008.
51. Spence A, Poortinga W, Butler C, Pidgeon NF (2011) Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience. Nat Clim Change 1: 46-49. doi: 10. 1038/nclimate1059.
52. Steiner AL, Pal JS, Rauscher SA et al (2009) Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon. Clim Dyn 33: 869-892. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0543-6.
53. Sun Y, Solomon S, Dai A, Portmann RW (2006) How often does it rain? J Climate 19: 916-934. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3672. 1.
54. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA (2006) Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Chang 79: 185-211. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-006-9051-4.
55. Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB (2003) The changing character of precipitation. B Am Math Soc 84: 1205-1217. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-84-9-1205.
56. Wang GL (2005) Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from fifteen global climate models participating in the Inter-governmental panel for climate change's 4th assessment. Clim Dynam 25: 739-753. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-005-0057-9.
57. Wang GL and Alo CC (2012) Changes in precipitation seasonality in West Africa predicted by RegCM3 and the impact of dynamic vegetation feedback. Int J Geophys in press.
58. 2 concentration changes on the biosphere-atmosphere system of West Africa. Global Change Biol 8: 1169-1182. doi: 10. 1046/j. 1365-2486. 2002. 00542. x.
59. Wang Y, Zhou L (2005) Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys Res Lett 32: L9707. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022574.
60. Wang XD, Zhong Z, Hu YJ, Yuan HH (2010) Effect of lateral boundary scheme on the simulation of tropical cyclone track in regional climate model RegCM3. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 46: 221-230. doi: 10. 1007/s13143-010-0019-y.
61. Weber E, Stern P (2010) What shapes perceptions of climate change? Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate Change 1: 332-342. doi: 10. 1002/wcc. 41.
62. Xu C, Shen X, Xu Y (2007) An analysis of climate change in east asia by using the IPCC AR4 simulations. Adv Clim Change Res 3: 287-292.
63. Xue YK, Vasic R, Janjic Z, Mesinger F, Mitchell KE (2007) Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the continental U. S. regional climate using the Eta/SSiB regional climate model. J Clim 20: 4172-4193. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4239. 1.
64. Yatagai A, Arakawa O, Kamiguchi K et al (2009) A 44-year daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. SOLA 5: 137-140. doi: 10. 2151/sola. 2009-035.
65. Yu R, Wang B, Zhou T (2004) Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 31: L22212. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL021270.
66. Zhai PM, Zhang XB, Wan H (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Climate 18: 1096-1107. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI-3318. 1.
67. Zhai J, Zeng X, Su B (2009) Patterns of dryness/wetness in China before 2050 projected by the ECHAM5 model. Adv Clim Change Res 5: 220-225.
68. Zhang Y, Kuang X, Guo W, Zhou T (2006) Seasonal evolution of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet core over East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 33: L11708. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026377.
69. Zhang DF, Gao XJ, Ouyang LC, Dong WJ (2008) Simulation of present climate over East Asia by a regional climate model. J Trop Meteorol 14: 19-23.
70. Ziegler AD, Maurer EP, Sheffield J et al (2005) Detection time for plausible changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow in Three Mississippi River Sub-Basins. Clim Chang 72: 17-36. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-005-5379-4.