The case for repeatable analysis with energy economy optimization models

Energy Economics

Volumn 34, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 1845-1853

  DeCarolis, Joseph F ^a   Hunter, Kevin ^a   Sreepathi, Sarat ^a  

^a North Carolina State University   (United States)

Author keywords

Energy modeling; Open source; Validation; Verification

Indexed keywords

BUILDING PROCESS; DECISION MAKERS; DECISION SPACE; ENERGY ECONOMY; ENERGY MODELING; EXTERNAL OBSERVER; JOURNAL PAPER; LONG-TERM EFFECTS; MODEL ANALYSIS; MODEL DEVELOPMENT; MODEL RESULTS; MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS; OPEN SOURCES; OPTIMIZATION MODELS; SEARCH TECHNIQUE; SOFTWARE FRAMEWORKS; SOURCE CODES; THIRD PARTIES; VALIDATION;

ECONOMICS; ENERGY RESOURCES; VERIFICATION;

COMPUTER PROGRAMMING;

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ENERGY POLICY; MODEL VALIDATION; OPTIMIZATION;

EID: 84865285149     PISSN: 01409883     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.004     Document Type: Article

References (111)

1. Ackerman F., DeCanio S.J., Howarth R.B., Sheeran K. Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change. Clim. Chang. 2009, 5:297-315.
2. AEA The American Economic Review: Data Availability Policy 2012, American Economic Association (AEA), http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data.php. Accessed 22 April 2012.
3. AIM Asia-Pacific Integrated Model 2012, http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.htm. Accessed 22 April 2012.
4. Akimoto K., Tomoda T., Fujii Y., Yamaji K. Assessment of global warming mitigation options with integrated assessment model DNE21. Energy Econ. 2004, 26:635-653.
5. Allan R.N., Billington R., Abdel-Gawad N.M.K. The IEEE reliability test system-extensions to and evaluation of the generating system. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 1986, 4:1-7. (PWRS-1).
6. Altschul S., Gish W., Miller W., Myers E., Lipman D. Basic local alignment search tool. J. Mol. Biol. 1990, 215:403-410.
7. Apache The Apache Software Foundation Apache License 2004, Version 2.0. http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0.html. Accessed 4 September 2011.
8. Barnes N. Publish your computer code: it is good enough. Nature 2010, 467:753.
9. Bennett J.A. The mechanics' philosophy and the mechanical philosophy. Hist. Sci. 1986, 24:1-28.
10. Bersoff E.H. Elements of software configuration management. Software Engineering 1997, IEEE Computer Society Press, Washington, DC. M. Dorfman, R.H. Thayer (Eds.).
11. BLAST Basic Local Alignment Search Tool 2012, http://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi. Accessed 13 April 2012.
12. Bosetti V., Carraro C., Galeotti M., Massetti E., Tavoni M. WITCH: a World Induced Technical Change Hybrid model. Energy J. 2006, 27:13-37.
13. Brenkert A.L. SGM Users Guide I. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNNL-15019-1 2005.
14. Clarke L., et al. Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of the Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research 2007, Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC.
15. COIN-OR Welcome to the CMPL Home Page 2012, https://projects.coin-or.org/Cmpl. Accessed 26 April 2012.
16. COIN-OR COmputational INfrastructure for Operations Research 2012, http://www.coin-or.org/. Accessed 24 October 2011.
17. Collins-Sussman B., Fitzpatrick B.W., Pilato M.C. Version Control with Subversion 2008, O'Reilly Media, Sebastapol, CA.
18. CoPS (Centre of Policy Studies) GEMPACK General Equilibrium Modelling Software 2010, http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/gempack.htm Accessed 5 September 2011.
19. Craig P.P., Gadgil A., Koomey J.G. What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 2002, 27:83-118.
20. de Bruin K.C., Dellink R.B., Tol R.S.J. AD-DICE: an implementation of adaptation in the DICE model. Clim. Chang. 2009, 95:63-81.
21. Dear P. Discipline and Experience: The Mathematical Way in the Scientific Revolution 1995, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
22. DeCarolis J.F. Using modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) to expand our thinking on energy futures. Energy Econ. 2010, 33:145-152.
23. Deep Sky The Deep Sky Project 2012, http://deepskyproject.org/. Accessed 22 April 2012.
24. Doxygen Accessed 18 September, 2011. http://doxygen.org.
25. Drake S. Galileo Studies: Personality, Tradition, and Revolution 1970, The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
26. EIA (US Energy Information Administration) The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 2009, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, US Department of Energy. DOE/EIA-0581(2009), US Government Printing Office, Washington DC.
27. EIA (US Energy Information Administration) Annual Energy Outlook 2011 2011, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, US Department of Energy. DOE/EIA-0383(2011), US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
28. EIA (US Energy Information Administration) Availability of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Archive 2011, ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/forecasts/aeo/. Accessed 3 September 2011.
29. Elsevier Executable Paper Grand Challenge 2012, http://www.executablepapers.com/index.html. Accessed 22 April 2012.
30. Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Accessed on 23 April 2012. http://emf.stanford.edu.
31. EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) Economic Climate Modeling 2011, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/modeling.html. Accessed on 18 July 2011.
32. EPPA (Emissions Predictions, Policy Analysis) EPPA Public Release: License Agreement 2011, http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/IGSM/eppadl_form. Accessed 4 September 2011.
33. ETSAP Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program 2011, http://www.iea-etsap.org. Accessed 11 August 2011.
34. ETSAP E-TechDS-Energy Technology Data Source 2012, http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/E-TechDS/Technology.asp. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP). Accessed 23 April 2012.
35. FEEM WITCH Model Description 2012, http://www.witchmodel.org/pag/model.html. Accessed 23 April 2012.
36. Fourer R., Gay D.M., Kernighan B.W. AMPL: A Modeling Language for Mathematical Programming 2002, Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, CA.
37. Frigg R., Hartmann S. Models in Science. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy 2009, http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2009/entries/models-science/. Accessed 8 August 2011. E.N. Zalta (Ed.).
38. GNU GNU Operating System: The Free Software Definition 2012, http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-sw.html. Accessed 26 April 2012.
39. GNU GLPK (GNU Linear Programming Kit) 2012, http://www.gnu.org/s/glpk/. Accessed 26 April 2012.
40. Goulder L.H., Stavins R.N. An eye on the future. Nature 2002, 419:673-674.
41. Grigg C., Wong P., Albrecht P., Allan R., Bhavaraju M., Billinton R., Chen Q., Fong C., Haddad S., Kuruganty S., Li W., Mukerji R., Patton D., Rau N., Reppen D., Schneider A., Shahidehpour M., Singh C. The IEEE reliability test system-1996. A report prepared by the reliability test system task force of the application of probability methods subcommittee. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 1999, 14:1010-1020.
42. GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/. Accessed 23 April 2012.
43. Ha-Duong M. Transparency and control in engineering integrated assessment models. Integr. Assess. 2001, 2:209-218.
44. Hanson B., Sugden A., Alberts B. Making Data Maximally Available 2011, 331:649. Science (Editorial).
45. Hart W.E., Laird C., Watson J.-P., Woodruff D.L. Pyomo-Optimization Modeling in Python 2012, Springer, Berlin. first ed.
46. Helm D., Mandil C., Vasconcelos J., MacKay D., Birol F., Mogren A., Hauge F., Bach B., van der Linde C., Toczylowski E., Pérez-Arriaga I.J., Kröger W., Luciani G., Matthes F. Final report of the Advisory Group on the Energy Roadmap 2050. European Commission, Commission Staff Working Paper, SEC(2011) 2011, 1569.
47. Henrion M. Open-source policy modeling. Presentation at Carnegie Mellon University, 8 Feb. 2011 2011, cedm.epp.cmu.edu/files/slides/Henrion.pdf. Accessed 23 April 2012.
48. Henry J. The Scientific Revolution and the Origins of Modern Science 1997, St Martin's Press, New York.
49. Hodges J.S., Dewar J.A. Is it you or your model talking?. A Framework for Model Validation 1992, RAND, R-4114-AF/A/OSD.
50. Howells M., Rogner H., Strachan N., Heaps C., Huntington H., Kypreos S., Hughes A., Silveira S., DeCarolis J., Bazillian M., Roehrl A. OSeMOSYS: the open source energy modeling system. Energy Policy 2011, 39:5850-5870.
51. Hughes R.I.G. Models and representation. Philos. Sci. 1997, 64:S325-S336.
52. IBM IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimizer 2011, http://www-01.ibm.com/software/integration/optimization/cplex-optimizer/. Accessed 12 August 2011.
53. IEA A hybrid modelling framework to incorporate expert judgment in integrated economic and energy models-the IEA WEM-ECO model. International Energy Agency (IEA), Economic Analysis Division 2008.
54. IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 2010, International Energy Agency, Paris, France.
55. IEA World Energy Model: Methodology and Assumptions 2011, International Energy Agency (IEA), http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/. Accessed 23 April 2012.
56. IEW IEW: International Energy Workshop 2012, http://www.internationalenergyworkshop.org/. Accessed 22 April 2012.
57. IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) Energy Modeling Framework: Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) 2011, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/model/message.html. Accessed 3 September 2011.
58. Imielinski T., Lipski W. A systematic approach to relational database theory. Proceedings of the 1982 ACM SIGMOD International Conference on Management of Data (SIGMOD '82) 1982, ACM, New York, NY.
59. Ince D.C., Hatton L., Graham-Cumming J.G. The case for open computer programs. Nature 2012, 482:485-488.
60. Innovation Modelling Comparison Project Accessed 1 September 2011. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/imcp.
61. Islam S. Australian Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (ADICE): Model Specification, Numerical Implementation and Policy Implications, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University 1995.
62. JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute) Second Generation Model (SGM) 2011, http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/models/sgm/. Accessed 3 September 2011.
63. JPE Information for authors. J. Polit. Econ. (JPE) 2012, http://www.jstor.org/page/journal/jpoliecon/forAuthor.html. Accessed 22 April 2012.
64. Climate Policy Assessment: Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling 2003, Springer, Berlin. first ed. M. Kainuma, Y. Matsuoka, T. Morita (Eds.).
65. Kannan R. Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies-implication for UK decarbonisation targets. Appl. Energy 2009, 86:1873-1889.
66. Kypreos S., Barreto L., Capros P., Messner S. ERIS: a model prototype with endogenous technological change. Int. J. Global Energy Issues 2000, 14:374-397.
67. Loeliger J. Version Control with Git 2009, O'Reilly Media, Sebastpol, CA.
68. Love R. Linux Kernel Development 2010, Addison-Wesley, Upper Saddle River, NJ. third ed.
69. Loulou R., Goldstein G., Noble K. Documentation for MARKAL Family of Models 2004, http://www.etsap.org/documentation.asp. Accessed 12 May 2010.
70. Machamer P. Galileo Galilei. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy 2010, http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2010/entries/galileo/. Accessed 10 August 2011. E.N. Zalta (Ed.).
71. Manne A.S., Richels R.G. MERGE: An Integrated Assessment Model for Global Climate Change 2004, Stanford University, white paper.
72. McCullough Open access economics journals and the market for reproducible economic research. Econ. Anal. Policy 2009, 39:117-126.
73. MERGE MERGE: A Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reduction Policies 2011, http://www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE/. Accessed 3 September 2011.
74. Megajoule Megajoule 2012, http://megajoule.org. Accessed 23 April 2012.
75. Messner S., Strubegger M. User's Guide for MESSAGE III. WP-95-69 1995, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
76. Morgan G., Keith D. Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide. Clim. Chang. 2008, 90:189-215.
77. Mori S., Takahashi M. An integrated assessment model for the evaluation of new energy technologies and food productivity. Int. J. Global Energy Issues 1999, 11:1-18.
78. Mori S. The development of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using an extension of the MARIA model for the assessment of resource and energy technologies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2000, 63:289-311.
79. Mori S. Effects of carbon emission mitigation options under carbon concentration stabilization scenarios. Environ. Econ. Pol. Stud. 2000, 3:125-142.
80. Morrison M., Morgan M.S. Models as mediating instruments. Models as Mediators 1999, 10-37. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. M.S. Morgan (Ed.).
81. MPICH2 MPICH2 2012, http://www.mcs.anl.gov/research/projects/mpich2/. Accessed 13 April 2012.
82. Special report on emissions scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. N. Nakicenovic, R. Swart (Eds.).
83. NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Web 2012, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/. Accessed 22 April 2012.
84. NCBI Nucleotide 2012, National Center for Biotechnology Information, U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda MD, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?db=nucleotide. Accessed 13 April 2012.
85. Negus C. LinuxBible: Boot Up to Ubuntu, Fedora, KNOPPIX, Debian, openSUSE, and 13 Other Distributions 2010, Wiley, Indianapolis, Indiana.
86. NERSC National Energy Research Scientific Computing (NERSC) Center, Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy 2012, http://www.nersc.gov/users/science-gateways/. Accessed 22 April 2012.
87. Nordhaus W. Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Resour. Energy Econ. 1993, 15:27-50.
88. Nordhaus W. Critical assumptions in the stern review on climate change. Science 2007, 317:201-202.
89. Nordhaus W. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies 2008, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
90. Nordhaus W. DICE Model Discussion as of September 30, 2009 2011, http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/DICE2007.htm. Accessed 2 September 2011.
91. Ortiz R.A., Golub A., Lugovoy O., Markandya A., Wang J. DICER: a tool for analyzing climate policies. Energy Econ. 2011, 33:S41-S49.
92. OSeMOSYS OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modelling System 2011, http://osemosysmain.yolasite.com/. Accessed 3 September 2011.
93. PETSc Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation 2012, http://www.mcs.anl.gov/petsc/. Accessed 13 April 2012.
94. Popp D. ENTICE: endogenous technological change in the DICE model of global warming. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 2004, 48:613-810.
95. Popp D. ENTICE-BR: the effects of backstop technology on climate policy models. Energy Econ. 2006, 28:188-222.
96. Ravetz J. Models as metaphors. Public Participation in Sustainability Science 2003, 62-77. B. Kasemir, J. J[U+04D3]ger, C.C. Jaeger, M.T. Gardner (Eds.).
97. Read R. How to be a Programmer 2003, http://samizdat.mines.edu/howto/HowToBeAProgrammer.html. Accessed 30 Jul 2011.
98. RES The Economic Journal Data Policy. Royal Economic Society (RES) 2012, http://www.res.org.uk/view/datapolicyEconomic.html. Accessed on 22 April 2012.
99. RES The Econometrics Journal Data Policy. Royal Economic Society (RES) 2012, http://www.res.org.uk/view/datapolicyEconometrics.html, Accessed on 22 April 2012.
100. Rosenthal R. GAMS A User's Guide 2008, GAMS Development Corporation, Washington, DC.
101. Rotmans J. Methods for IA: the challenges and opportunities ahead. Environ. Model. Assess. 1998, 3:155-179.
102. Schneider S. Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: transparent ration tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions?. Environ. Model. Assess. 1997, 2:229-249.
103. Schwab M., Karrenbach M., Claerbout J. Making scientific computations reproducible. Comput. Sci. Eng. 2000, 2(6):61-67.
104. Sphinx Accessed 18 September, 2011. http://sphinx.pocoo.org.
105. Stern N., Taylor C. Climate change: risk, ethics, and the stern review. Science 2007, 317:203-204.
106. TES Editorial Procedures and Policies of Econometrica, Revised 2011. The Econometrics Society (TES) 2012, http://www.econometricsociety.org/submissionprocedures.asp#replication. Accessed 22 April 2012.
107. Turton H., Barreto L. The extended energy-systems ERIS model: an overview. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Interim Report IR-04-010, Laxenburg, Austria 2004.
108. UCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) 2012, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/. Accessed 13 April 2012.
109. Weyant J. A perspective on integrated assessment: an editorial comment. Clim. Chang. 2009, 95:317-323.
110. XSEDE Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment 2012, https://www.xsede.org/gateways-overview. Accessed 22 April 2012.
111. Yeh S., Loughlin D.H., Shay C., Gage C. An integrated assessment of the impacts of hydrogen economy on transportation, energy use, and air emissions. Proc. IEEE 2006, 94:1838-1851.