Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it

Tectonophysics

Volumn 562-563, Issue , 2012, Pages 1-25

  Stein, Seth ^a   Geller, Robert J ^b   Liu, Mian ^c  

^a NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

Author keywords

Earthquake hazards; Faulting; Hazard mitigation; Seismology

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD; EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES; EARTHQUAKE PROCESS; HAZARD MAP; HAZARD MAPPING; HAZARD MITIGATIONS; INTRINSIC VARIABILITIES; NULL HYPOTHESIS; POTENTIAL USERS; SEISMIC REGIONS; SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS;

FAULTING; FORECASTING; HAZARDS; SEISMOLOGY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EARTHQUAKES;

EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE; EARTHQUAKE MECHANISM; FAULTING; HAITI EARTHQUAKE 2010; MAPPING METHOD; SEISMIC HAZARD; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; SICHUAN EARTHQUAKE 2008; TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE 2011;

EID: 84864863055     PISSN: 00401951     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2012.06.047     Document Type: Review

References (156)

1. Albarello D., D'Amico V. Testing probabilistic seismic hazard estimates by comparison with observations: an example in Italy. Geophysical Journal International 2008, 175:1088-1094.
2. Algermissen S.T., Perkins D.M., Thenhaus P.C., Hanson S.L., Bender B.L. Probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration and velocity in rock in the contiguous United States. U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Report 1982, 82-1033.
3. Ando M. Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, Japan. Tectonophysics 1975, 27:119-140.
4. Atkinson G.M., Boore D.M. Ground-motion relations for Eastern North America. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1995, 85:17-30.
5. Bakun W.H., Aagaard B., Dost B., Ellsworth W.L., Hardebeck J.L., Harris R.A., Ji C., Johnston M.J.S., Langbein J., Lienkaemper J.J., Michael A.J., Murray J.R., Nadeau R.M., Reasenberg P.A., Reichle M.S., Roeloffs E.A., Shakal A., Simpson R.W., Waldhauser F. Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Nature 2005, 437:969-974.
6. Bilham R., Engdahl R., Feldl N., Satyabala S.P. Partial and complete rupture of the Indo-Andaman plate boundary 1847-2004. Seismological Research Letters 2005, 76:299-311.
7. Bommer J.J. Deterministic vs. probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: an exaggerated and obstructive dichotomy. Journal of Earthquake Engineering 2009, 6:43-73.
8. Burger R.W., Somerville P.G., Barker J.S., Herrmann R.B., Helmberger D.V. The effect of crustal structure on strong ground motion attenuation relations in eastern North America. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1987, 77:420-439.
9. Camelbeeck T., Vanneste K., Alexandre P., Verbeeck K., Petermans T., Rosset P., Everaerts M., Warnant R., Van Camp M. Relevance of active faulting and seismicity studies to assess long term earthquake activity in Northwest Europe. Continental Intraplate Earthquakes: Science, Hazard, and Policy Issues 2007, Special Paper 425:193-224. GSA, Boulder, CO.
10. Castanos H., Lomnitz C. PSHA: is it science?. Engineering Geology 2002, 66(315-317):2002.
11. Chang, K., Blindsided by ferocity unleashed by a fault, New York Times, March 21, 2011.
12. Chang W.-L., Smith R.B. Integrated seismic-hazard analysis of the Wasatch front, Utah. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2002, 92:1904-1922.
13. Chen Q.-F., Wang K. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and earthquake prediction in China. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2010, 100:2840-2857.
14. Clark D., McPherson A., Collins C. Australia's seismogenic neotectonic record: a case for heterogeneous intraplate deformation. Geoscience Australia Record 2011, 72-88. (2011/11).
15. Cornell C.A. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1968, 58:1583-1606.
16. Crone A.J., De Martini P.M., Machette M.N., Okumura K., Prescott J.R. Paleoseismicity of two historically quiescent faults in Australia: implications for fault behavior in stable continental regions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2003, 93:1913-1934.
17. CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) http://www.cseptesting.org/home.
18. Cyranoski D. Tsunami simulations scare Japan. Nature 2012, 484:296-297.
19. Derman E. My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance 2004, Wiley, New York.
20. Earthquake Research Committee Long-term forecast of earthquakes from Sanriku-oki to Boso-oki 2009.
21. Earthquake Research Committee National seismic hazard maps for Japan 2010.
22. Emanuel K. Why are hurricane forecasts still so rough? http://articles.cnn.com/2011-08-25/opinion/emanuel.weather.predict_1_forecast-hurricane-irene-national-hurricane-center?_s=PM:OPINION.
23. Fackler, M., Tsunami warnings written in stone, New York Times, April 20, 2011.
24. Feynman R.P. QED: The Strange Theory of Light and Matter 1986, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
25. Feynman R.P. What Do You Care What other People Think 1988, W. W. Norton, New York, NY.
26. Field E., Dawson T., Felzer K., Frankel A., Gupta V., Jordan T., Parsons T., Petersen M., Stein R., Weldon R., Wills C. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2. U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Report 2007-1437 2008.
27. Frankel A., Mueller C., Barnhard T., Perkins D., Leyendecker E., Dickman N., Hanson S., Hopper M. National Seismic Hazard Maps Documentation. U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Report 96-532 1996, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
28. Frankel A., Harmsen S., Mueller C., Calais E., Haase J. Documentation for initial seismic hazard maps for Haiti. Open-File Report 2010-1067 2010, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
29. Freedman D., Stark P. What is the chance of an earthquake?. NATO Science Series IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences 2003, 32:201-213. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
30. Friedrich A.M., Wernicke B.P., Niemi N.A., Bennett R.A., Davis J.L. Comparison of geodetic and geologic data from the Wasatch region, Utah, and implications for the spectral character of Earth deformation at periods of 10 to 10 million years. Journal of Geophysical Research 2003, 108:2199. 10.1029/2001JB000682.
31. Gardner D. Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway 2010, McClelland & Stewart, Toronto.
32. Geller R.J. Earthquake prediction: a critical review. Geophysical Journal International 1997, 131:425-450.
33. Geller R.J. Shake-up time for Japanese seismology. Nature 2011, 472:407-409.
34. Geschwind C.-H. California Earthquakes: Science, Risk, and the Politics of Hazard Mitigation 2001, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
35. GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/GSHAP.
36. Gutenberg B., Richter C.F. Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1944, 34:185-188.
37. Hager B., Cornell C.A., Medigovich W.M., Mogi K., Smith R.M., Tobin L.T., Stock J., Weldon R. Earthquake Research at Parkfield, California, for 1993 and Beyond. Report of the NEPEC [National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council] Working Group, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1994, 1116.
38. Halchuk S., Adams J. Crossing the border: assessing the difference between new Canadian and American seismic hazard maps. Proc. 8th Canad. Conf. Earthquake Engineering 1999, 77-82.
39. Hammitt J.K., Shlyakhter A.I. The expected value of information and the probability of surprise. Risk Analysis 1999, 19:135-152.
40. Hanks T.C., Cornell C.A. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: a beginner's guide. Fifth Symposium on Current Issues Related to Nuclear Power Plant Structures, Equipment, and Piping 1994.
41. Hebden J., Stein S. Time-dependent seismic hazard maps for the New Madrid seismic zone and Charleston, South Carolina areas. Seismological Research Letters 2009, 80:10-20.
42. Henrion M., Fischhoff B. Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics 1986, 54:791-798.
43. Hough S. Predicting the Unpredictable 2009, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
44. Hough S., Page M. Toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 2011, 116. 10.1029/2010JB007783.
45. Hough S., Armbruster J.G., Seeber L., Hough J.F. On the Modified Mercalli Intensities and magnitudes of the 1811/1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 2000, 105:23,839-23,864.
46. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis 2007.
47. Ishibashi K. Specification of a soon-to-occur seismic faulting in the Tokai district, central Japan, based upon seismotectonics. Earthquake Prediction, Maurice Ewing Ser. 1981, 4:297-332. AGU, Washington, D.C.
48. Ishibashi K., Satake K. Problems on forecasting great earthquakes in the subduction zones around Japan by means of paleoseismology (in Japanese). Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan) 1998, 50(special issue):1-21.
49. Jackson D.D., Kagan Y.Y. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: lessons for the future. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2006, 96:S397-S409.
50. Johnston A.C. Seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions - II. New Madrid 1811-1812, Charleston 1886 and Lisbon 1755. Geophysical Journal International 1996, 126:314-344.
51. Jordan T., Chen Y., Gasparini P., Madariaga R., Main I., Marzocchi W., Papadopoulos G., Sobolev G., Yamaoka K., Zschau J. Operational earthquake forecasting: state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization. Annals of Geophysics 2011, 54(4). 10.4401/ag-5350.
52. Kafka A. Does seismicity delineate zones where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in intraplate environments?. Continental intraplate earthquakes: science, hazard, and policy issues, Special Paper 2007, 425:35-48. GSA, Boulder CO.
53. Kagan Y.Y. Comment on "The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by S. Wesnousky. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1996, 86:274-285.
54. Kagan Y.Y., Jackson D.D. Seismic gap hypothesis: ten years after. Journal of Geophysical Research 1991, 96:21,419-21,431.
55. Kagan Y.Y., Jackson D.D. New seismic gap hypothesis: five years after. Journal of Geophysical Research 1995, 99:3943-3959.
56. Kagan Y.Y., Jackson D.D. Whole Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International 2012, 190:677-686.
57. Kagan, Y.Y., Jackson, D.D., in press. Tohoku earthquake: a surprise. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
58. Kanamori H. Energy release in great earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 1977, 82:2981-2987.
59. Kanamori H. Seismic and aseismic slip along subduction zones and their tectonic implications. Maurice Ewing Ser. 1977, 1:163-174. AGU, Washington, D.C.
60. Kanamori H. Prepare for the unexpected. Nature 2011, 473:147.
61. Kelsey H.M., Nelson A.R., Hemphill-Haley E., Witter R.C. Tsunami history of an Oregon coastal lake reveals a 4600 year record of great earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. Geological Society of America Bulletin 2005, 117:1009-1032.
62. Kerr R.A. Parkfield quakes skip a beat. Science 1993, 259:1120-1122.
63. Kerr R.A. Seismic crystal ball proving mostly cloudy around the world. Science 2011, 332:912-913.
64. Kossobokov V.G., Nekrasova A.K. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program maps are erroneous. Seismic instruments 2012, 48:162-170.
65. Lee Y., Turcotte D.L., Holliday J.R., Sachs M.K., Rundle J.B., Chen C., Tiampo K.F. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California. PNAS 2011, 108(40):16533-16538. 10.1073/pnas.1113481108.
66. Leonard M., Robinson D., Allen T., Schneider J., Clark D., Dhu T., Burbidge D. Toward a better model of earthquake hazard in Australia. Continental Intraplate Earthquakes, Special Paper 2007, 425:263-283. GSA, Boulder, CO.
67. Liu M., Stein S., Wang H. 2000 years of migrating earthquakes in North China: How earthquakes in mid-continents differ from those at plate boundaries. Lithosphere 2011, 3. 10.1130/L129.
68. Lomnitz C. Comment on "temporal and magnitude dependance in earthquake recurrence models" by C. A. Cornell and S. R. Winterstein. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1989, 79:1662.
69. Loveless J.P., Meade B.J. Geodetic imaging of plate motions, slip rates, and partitioning of deformation in Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research 2010, 115. 10.1029/2008JB006248.
70. Lowenstein R. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management 2000, Random House, New York.
71. Luo G., Liu M. Stress evolution and fault interactions before and after the 2008 Great Wenchuan earthquake. Tectonophysics 2010, 491(1-4):127-140. 10.1016/j.tecto.2009.12.019.
72. Malservisi R., Dixon T.H., La Femina P.C., Furlong K.P. Holocene slip rate of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, from geodetic data: earthquake cycle effects. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30:1673. 10.1029/2003GL017408.
73. Manaker D.M., Calais E., Freed A.M., Ali S.T., Przybylski P., Mattioli G., Jansma P., Prepetit C., De Chabalie J.B. Interseismic plate coupling and strain partitioning in the Northeastern Caribbean. Geophysical Journal International 2008, 174:889-903.
74. Marzocchi W., Zechar J.D. Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model. Seismological Research Letters 2011, 82(3):442-448. 10.1785/gssrl.82.3.442.
75. McCaffrey R. The next great earthquake. Science 2007, 315:1675-1676.
76. McCaffrey R. Global frequency of magnitude 9 earthquakes. Geology 2008, 36:263-266.
77. McCloskey J., Nalbant S.S., Steacy S. Indonesian earthquake: earthquake risk from co-seismic stress. Nature 2005, 434:291.
78. McGuire R.K. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes: closing the loop. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1995, 85:1275-1284.
79. Meghraoui M., Delouis B., Ferry M., Giardini D., Huggenberger P., Spottke I., Granet M. Active normal faulting in the upper Rhine Graben and the paleoseismic identification of the 1356 Basel earthquake. Science 2001, 293:2070-2073.
80. Meng G., Ren J., Wang M., Gan W., Wang Q., Qiao X., Yang Y. Crustal deformation in western Sichuan region and implications for 12 May 2008 Ms 8.0 earthquake. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 2008, 9. 10.1029/2008GC002144.
81. Merz B. Role and responsibility of geoscientists for warning and mitigation of natural disasters. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012 2012.
82. Minoura K., Imamura F., Sugawa D., Kono Y., Iwashita T. The 869 Jogan tsunami deposit and recurrence interval of large-scale tsunami on the Pacific coast of Northeast Japan. Journal of Natural Disaster Science 2001, 23:83-88.
83. Miyazawa M., Mori J. Test of seismic hazard map from 500 years of recorded intensity data in Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2009, 99:3140-3149.
84. Monecke K., Finger W., Klarer D., Kongko W., McAdoo B., Moore A., Sudrajat S. A 1,000-year sediment record of tsunami recurrence in northern Sumatra. Nature 2008, 455:1232-1234.
85. Moseley J.B., O'Malley K., Petersen N.J., Menke T.J., Brody B.A., Kuykendall D.H., Hollingsworth J.C., Ashton C.M., Wray N.P. A controlled trial of arthroscopic surgery for osteoarthritis of the knee. The New England Journal of Medicine 2002, 347:81-88.
86. Mucciarelli M., Albarello D., D'Amico V. Comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in Italy. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2008, 98:2652-2664.
87. Murphy A.H. Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relation to the correlation coefficient. Monthly Weather Review 1988, 116:2417-2424.
88. Murphy A.H. What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 1993, 8:281-293.
89. Nanayama F., Satake K., Furukawa R., Shimokawa K., Atwater B., Shigeno K., Yamaki S. Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kuril trench. Nature 2003, 424:660-663.
90. Newman A.V. Hidden Depths. Nature 2011, 474:441-443.
91. Newman A., Stein S., Weber J., Engeln J., Mao A., Dixon T. Slow deformation and lower seismic hazard at the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Science 1999, 284:619-621.
92. Newman A., Stein S., Schneider J., Mendez A. Uncertainties in seismic hazard maps for the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Seismological Research Letters 2001, 72:653-667.
93. Nishenko S.P., Buland R. A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1987, 77:1382-1399.
94. Nöggerath J., Geller R.J., Gusiakov V.K. Fukushima: the myth of safety, the reality of geoscience. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2011, 68:37-46.
95. Normile D. One year after the devastation, Tohoku designs its renewal. Science 2012, 335:1164-1166.
96. Nuttli O.W. The Mississippi Valley earthquakes of 1811 and 1812: intensities, ground motion, and magnitudes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1973, 63:227-248.
97. Okal E.A., Synolakis C. Source discriminants for near-field tsunamis. Geophysical Journal International 2004, 158:899-912.
98. Onishi, N., Seawalls offered little protection against tsunami's crushing waves, New York Times, March 13, 2011.
99. Onishi, N., In Japan, seawall offered a false sense of security, New York Times, March 31, 2011.
100. Onishi, N., Japan revives a sea barrier that failed to hold, New York Times, November 2, 2011.
101. Oreskes N. Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Science. Prediction: science, decision making, and the future of Nature 2000, Island Press, Washington D.C. D. Sarewitz, R. Pielke, R. Byerly (Eds.).
102. Overbye, D., They tried to outsmart Wall Street, New York Times, March 10, 2009.
103. Panza G.F., Irikura K., Kouteva M., Peresan A., Wang Z., Saragoni R. Advanced seismic hazard assessment. Pageoph 2010, 168:1-9.
104. Parsons T. Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: example calculations for California. Journal of Geophysical Research 2008, 113. 10.1029/2007JB004998.
105. Parsons T. Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process. Geophysical Research Letters 2008, 35. 10.1029/2008GL035887.
106. Pechmann J.C., Arabasz W. The problem of the random earthquake in seismic hazard analysis: Wasatch front region, Utah. 1995 Symposium and Field Conference 1995, 77-93. Utah Geol. Assoc.
107. Peterson M.D., Cao T., Campbell K.W., Frankel A.D. Time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard assessment for the state of California: uniform California Earthquake rupture forecast model 1.0. Seismological Research Letters 2007, 78:99-109.
108. Pilkey O.H., Pilkey-Jarvis L. Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future 2006, Columbia University Press, New York.
109. Reyners M. Lessons from the destructive Mw 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake. Seismological Research Letters 2011, 82:371-372.
110. Ruff L., Kanamori H. Seismicity and the subduction process. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 1980, 23:240-252.
111. Sagiya T. Integrate all available data. Nature 2011, 473:146-147.
112. Sarewitz D., Pielke R., Byerly R. Prediction: science, decision making, and the future of Nature 2000, Island Press, Washington D.C.
113. Satake K., Atwater B.F. Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 2007, 35:349-374.
114. Savage J.C. Criticism of some forecasts of the national earthquake prediction council. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1991, 81:862-881.
115. Savage J.C. The uncertainty in earthquake conditional probabilities. Geophysical Research Letters 1992, 19:709-712.
116. Savage J.C. The Parkfield prediction fallacy. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1993, 83:1-6.
117. Savage J.C. Empirical earthquake probabilities from observed recurrence intervals. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1994, 84:219-221.
118. Scholz C.H. The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting 2002, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
119. Schorlemmer D., Zechar J.D., Werner M., Jackson D.D., Field E.H., Jordan T.H. First results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment. Pure and Applied Geophysics (The Frank Evison Volume) 2010, 167(8/9):859-876. the RELM Working Group. 10.1007/s00024-010-0081-5.
120. Schwartz D.P., Coppersmith K.J. Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones. Journal of Geophysical Research 1984, 89:5681-5698.
121. Searer G., Freeman S.A., Paret T.F. Does it make sense from engineering and scientific perspectives to design for a 2475-year earthquake?. Continental Intraplate Earthquakes, Special Paper 2007, 425:353-361. GSA, Boulder, CO.
122. Sieh K., Stuiver M., Brillinger D. A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas fault in southern California. Journal of Geophysical Research 1989, 94:603-624.
123. Simons M., Minson S.E., Sladen A., Ortega F., Jiang J., Owen S.E., Meng L., Ampuero J.-P., Wei S., Chu R., Helmberger D.V., Kanamori H., Hetland E., Moore A.W., Webb F.H. The 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: mosaicking the megathrust from seconds to centuries. Science 2011, 332:1421-1425.
124. Stein R. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. Nature 1999, 402:605-609.
125. Stein S. Disaster Deferred: How New Science Is Changing Our View Of Earthquake Hazards in the Midwest 2010, Columbia University Press, New York.
126. Stein J.L. Stochastic Optimal Control and the U.S. Financial Debt Crisis 2012, Springer.
127. Stein S., Liu M. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Nature 2009, 462:87-89.
128. Stein S., Newman A. Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: applications to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones. Seismological Research Letters 2004, 75:170-184.
129. Stein S., Okal E.A. Speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake. Nature 2005, 434:581-582.
130. Stein S., Okal E.A. Ultralong period seismic study of the December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and implications for regional tectonics and the subduction process. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2007, 87:S279-S295.
131. Stein S., Okal E.A. The size of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake needn't have been a surprise. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 2011, 92:227-228.
132. Stein J.L., Stein S. Rebuilding Tohoku: a joint geophysical and economic framework for hazard mitigation. GSA Today 2012, 22:28-30.
133. Stein S., Wysession M. Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, and Earth Structure 2003, Blackwell, Oxford.
134. Stein R., Yates R.S. Hidden earthquakes. Scientific American 1989, 260:48-57. (January).
135. Stein S., Sleep N.H., Geller R.J., Wang S.C., Kroeger G.C. Earthquakes along the passive margin of eastern Canada. Geophysical Research Letters 1979, 6:537-540.
136. Stein S., Engeln J.F., DeMets C., Gordon R.G., Woods D., Lundgren P., Argus D., Stein C., Wiens D.A. The Nazca-South America convergence rate and the recurrence of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters 1986, 13:713-716.
137. Stein S., Cloetingh S., Sleep N., Wortel R. Passive margin earthquakes, stresses, and rheology. Earthquakes at North-Atlantic Passive Margins: Neotectonics and Postglacial Rebound 1989, 231-260. Kluwer, Dordecht. S. Gregerson, P. Basham (Eds.).
138. Stein S., Newman A., Tomasello J. Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 2003, 84(177):184-185.
139. Stein S., Friedrich A., Newman A. Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah. Seismological Research Letters 2005, 76:432-436.
140. Stein S., Liu M., Calais E., Li Q. Midcontinent earthquakes as a complex system. Seismological Research Letters 2009, 80:551-553.
141. Stein S., Geller R.J., Liu M. Bad assumptions or bad luck: why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing. Seismological Research Letters 2011, 82:623-626.
142. Stephenson D. Use of the "Odds Ratio" for diagnosing forecast skill. Weather and Forecasting 2000, 15:221-232.
143. Stirling M.W., Gerstenberger M. Ground motion-based testing of seismic hazard models in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2010, 100:1407-1414.
144. Swafford L., Stein S. Limitations of the short earthquake record for seismicity and seismic hazard studies. Continental Intraplate Earthquakes, Special Paper 2007, 425:49-58. GSA, Boulder, CO.
145. Taleb N.N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 2007, Random House, New York.
146. Toro G.R., Abrahamson N.A., Schneider J.F. Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: best estimates and uncertainties. Seismological Research Letters 1997, 68:41-57.
147. Toth L., Gyori E., Monus P., Zsiros T. Seismicity and seismic hazard in the Pannonian basin. Proc. NATO Ad. Res. Worksh.: The Adria microplate 2004, 119-123.
148. Valensise G., Pantosti D. Investigation of potential earthquake sources in peninsular Italy: a review. Journal of Seismology 2001, 5:287-306.
149. Wang Z. Seismic hazard assessment: issues and alternatives. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2011, 168:11-25.
150. Wang, Z., Cobb, J., in press. A critique of probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis with special reference to the New Madrid seismic zone, in: Recent Advances in North American Paleoseismology and Neotectonics east of the Rockies. GSA, Boulder, CO.
151. Wang H., Liu M., Cao J., Shen X., Zhang G. Slip rates and seismic moment deficits on major active faults in mainland China. Journal of Geophysical Research 2011, 116:B02405. 10.1029/02010JB007821.
152. Witze A. The sleeping dragon. Nature 2009, 459:153-157.
153. Wyss M., Nekraskova A., Kossobokov V. Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates. Natural Hazards 2012, 62:927-935.
154. Yomogida K., Yoshizawa K., Koyama J., Tsuzuki M. Along-dip segmentation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake and comparison with other megathrust earthquakes. Earth, Planets and Space 2011, 63:697-701.
155. Youngs R.R., Coppersmith K.J. Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1985, 75:939-964.
156. Zhang P.-Z., Shen Z., Wang M., Gan W., Burgmann R., Molnar P., Wang Q., Niu Z., Sun J., Wu J., Hanrong S., Xinzhao Y. Continuous deformation of the Tibetan Plateau from global positioning system data. Geology 2004, 32:809-812.