Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 244, Issue , 2012, Pages 93-103

  Costanza, Jennifer K ^a   Hulcr, Jiri ^a,c   Koch, Frank H ^b   Earnhardt, Todd ^a   McKerrow, Alexa J ^a   Dunn, Rob R ^a   Collazo, Jaime A ^a  

^a NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

Forest thinning; Southern pine beetle prevention; Southern pine beetle risk; State and transition simulation model; TELSA; VDDT

Indexed keywords

FOREST THINNINGS; SIMULATION MODEL; SOUTHERN PINE BEETLE; TELSA; VDDT;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DYNAMICS; LOSSES;

FORESTRY;

BEETLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONIFEROUS FOREST; CONIFEROUS TREE; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; FOREST INVENTORY; FOREST MANAGEMENT; FORESTRY MODELING; FORESTRY POLICY; FORESTRY PRODUCTION; LANDSCAPE; RISK FACTOR; THINNING;

FOREST MANAGEMENT; FORESTRY; INSECTS; PINUS TAEDA; SEASONAL VARIATION; SOUTHERN PINES; THINNING; USA;

UNITED STATES;

COLEOPTERA; DENDROCTONUS FRONTALIS; PINUS TAEDA;

EID: 84864401738     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.037     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Bestelmeyer B.T., Brown J.R., Trujillo D.A., Havstad K.M. Land management in the American Southwest: a state-and-transition approach to ecosystem complexity. Environmental Management 2004, 34:38-51.
2. Billings R. Direct control. The Southern Pine Beetle 1980, 179-192. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington. R.C. Thatcher, J.L. Searcy, J.E. Coster, G.D. Hertel (Eds.).
3. Bishir, J., Roberts, J., Strom, B., Wan, X. 2009. Documentation and user guides for SPBLOB: a computer simulation model of the join population dynamics for loblolly pine and the southern pine beetle. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-114. Asheville: U.S Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station.
4. Cairns D.M., Lafon C.W., Birt A.G., Waldron J.D., Tchakerian M., Coulson R.N., et al. Simulation modeling as a tool for understanding the landscape ecology of southern pine beetle infestations in southern Appalachian forests. Geography Compass 2008, (2/3):580-599.
5. Cairns D.M., Lafon C.W., Waldron J.D., Tchakerian M., Coulson R.N., Klepzig K.D., et al. Simulating the reciprocal interaction of forest landscape structure and southern pine beetle herbivory using LANDIS. Landscape Ecology 2008, 23:403-415.
6. Ciesla W.M. Forest Entomology 2011, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.
7. Clarke, S., 2011. An integrated pest management program for the southern pine beetle. Available online: (accessed June 2011). http://web2.ento.vt.edu/servlet/sf/spbicc/page.html%3Fname=spb_IPM.
8. Conner R.N., Rudolph C.D. Losses of red-cockaded woodpecker cavity trees to southern pine beetles. Wilson Bull 1995, 107:81-92.
9. Coulson R.N., Feldman R.M., Sharpe P.J.H., Pulley P.E., Wagner T.L., Payne T.L. An overview of the TAMBEETLE model of Dendroctonus frontalis population dynamics. Holarctic Ecology 1989, 12:445-450.
10. Daniels R.F., Leuschner W.A., Zarnoch S.J., Burkhart H.E., Hicks R.R. A method for estimating the probability of southern pine beetle outbreaks. Forest Science 1979, 25:265-269.
11. DeAngelis J.D., Nebeker T.E., Hodges J.D. Influence of tree age and growth rate on the radial resin duct system in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). Canadian Journal of Botany 1986, 64:1046-1049.
12. Definiens Imaging, 2004. eCognition version 4 [software], Munich, Germany.
13. Duehl, A. 2008. Predicting southern pine beetle infestation risk from neighborhood history and environmental conditions. Ph.D. Dissertation. Raleigh, NC: North Carolina State University.
14. Duehl A., Koch F.H., Hain F.P. Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history. Forest Ecology and Management 2011, 261:473-479.
15. Duerr D.A., Mistretta P.A. Chapter 16: Insect and disease pests of southern forests. The Southern Forest Futures Project, Draft Report 2011, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, Available online: http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/futures/ (accessed August 2011). D.N. Wear, J.G. Greis (Eds.).
16. Duncan R.S., Linhoss J.E. Regeneration of virginia pine (Pinus virginiana) following southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) outbreak in the Sipsey Wilderness, Alabama. Forest Ecology and Management 2005, 212:65-74.
17. Elkie P., Gluck M., Boos J., Bowman J., Daniel C., Elliott J., et al. Science and Information in Support of the Forest Management Guide for Landscapes: Package " A" Simulations, Rationale and Inputs 2009, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Forest Policy Section, Peterborough, ON, Available online: http://www.olt.tbayteldirectit.com/Science%20and%20Information%20Package%20A.zip (accessed February 2011).
18. Environmental Protection Agency Level III and IV. Ecoregions of EPA Region 4 [Spatial data] 2004, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Western Ecology Division, Corvallis, OR.
19. Environmental Systems Research Institute (1999-2009). ArcGIS: release 9.3.1 [software]. Redlands, California.
20. ESSA Technologies Ltd Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool User Guide, Version 6.0 2007, ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, Available online: http://www.essa.com/documents/vddt/VDDT-60-User-Guide.pdf (accessed February 2011).
21. ESSA Technologies Ltd TELSA: Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses, Model Description, Version 3.6 2008, ESSA Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, Available online: http://www.essa.com/documents/telsa/ModelDescription.pdf (accessed February 2011).
22. Fettig C.J., Klepzig K.D., Billings R.F., Munson A.S., Nebeker T.E., Negron J.F., et al. The effectiveness of vegetation management practices for prevention and control of bark beetle infestations in coniferous forests of the western and southern United States. Forest Ecology and Management 2007, 238:24-53.
23. Flamm R., Coulson R.N., Payne T.L. The southern pine beetle. Dynamics of Forest Insect Populations 1986, 531-553. Plenum Press, NY. A.A. Berryman (Ed.).
24. Forbis T.A., Provencher L., Frid L., Medlyn G. Great Basin land management planning using ecological modeling. Environmental Management 2006, 38:62-83.
25. Gan J. Risk and damage of southern pine beetle outbreaks under global climate change. Forest Ecology and Management 2004, 191:61-71.
26. Gumpertz M.L., Wu C-, Pye J.M. Logistic regression for southern pine beetle outbreaks with spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Forest Science 2000, 46:95-107.
27. Hicks R.R. Climatic, site, and stand factors. The Southern Pine Beetle 1980, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, DC. R.C. Thatcher, J.L. Searcy, J.E. Coster, G.D. Hertel (Eds.).
28. Homer C., Huang C-T., Yang L., Wylie B., Coan M. Development of a 2001 mational land-cover database for the United States. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 2004, 70:829-840.
29. Horn H.S. Markovian properties of forest successions. Ecology and the Evolution of Communities 1975, 196-211. Harvard University Press, Cambridge. M.L. Cody, J.M. Diamond (Eds.).
30. Huang C., Wylie B., Yang L., Homer C., Zylstra G. Derivation of a tasselled cap transformation based on Landsat 7 at-satellite reflectance. International Journal of Remote Sensing 2002, 23:1741-1748.
31. Kalkstein L.S. Effects of climatic stress upon outbreaks of the southern pine beetle. Environmental Entomology 1976, 5:653-658.
32. Kurz W.A., Beukema S.J., Klenner W., Greenough J.A., Robinson D.C.E., Sharpe A.D., et al. TELSA: the tool for exploratory landscape scenario analyses. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 2000, 27:227-242.
33. Kurz W.A., Dymond C.C., Stinson G., Rampley G.J., Neilson E.T., Carroll A.L., et al. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 2008, 452:987-990.
34. Lieutier F., Day K.R., Battisti A., Gregoire J.-C., Evans H.F. Bark and Wood Boring Insects in Living Trees in Europe, a Synthesis 2004, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
35. Lih M.P., Stephen F.M., Jeng K.J. SPBMODEL A User's Guide 1995, Department of Entomology, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR.
36. Nowak J., Asaro C., Klepzig K., Billings R. The southern pine beetle prevention initiative: working for healthier forests. Journal of Forestry 2008, 106:261-267.
37. Paine T.D., Raffa K.F., Harrington T.C. Interactions between scolytid bark beetles, their associated fungi and live host conifers. Annual Review of Entomology 1997, 42:179-206.
38. Payne T.L. Life history and habits. The Southern Pine Beetle 1980, 7-28. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, DC. R.C. Thatcher, J.L. Searcy, J.E. Coster, G.D. Hertel (Eds.).
39. Price J.I., McCollum D.W., Berrens R.P. Insect infestation and residential property values: a hedonic analysis of the mountain pine beetle epidemic. Forest Policy and Economics 2010, 12:415-422.
40. Provencher L., Forbis T.A., Frid L., Medlyn G. Comparing alternative management strategies of fire, grazing, and weed control using spatial modeling. Ecological Modelling 2007, 209:249-263.
41. Pye J., Price T.S., Clarke S.R., Huggett R.J. A History of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks in the Southeastern United States Through 2004 2008, USDA Forest Service, Asheville, Available online: http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/econ/data/spb/ (accessed November 2011).
42. Reed D.D., Burkhart H.E., Leuschner W.A., Hedden R.L. A severity model for southern pine beetle infestations. Forest Science 1981, 27:290-296.
43. Reed D.D., Hedden R.L., Daniels R.F. Estimating the annual probability of southern pine beetle outbreak. Forest Science 1982, 28:202-206.
44. Schowalter T.D., Turchin P. Southern pine beetle infestation development: interaction between pine and hardwood basal areas. Forest Science 1993, 30:201-210.
45. Southeast Gap Analysis Project Southeast GAP Regional Land Cover (NC Subsection) [Spatial Data] 2008, Southeast Gap Analysis Project, Raleigh, NC, Available online: http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html (accessed July 2011).
46. Strand, EK., 2007. Landscape dynamics in aspen and western juniper woodlands on the Owyhee Plateau, Idaho. Ph.D. Dissertation. Moscow, ID, University of Idaho.
47. Strand E.K. A spatially explicit model to predict future landscape composition of aspen woodlands under various management scenarios. Ecological Modelling 2009, 220:175-191.
48. Tchakerian M., Coulson R.N. Ecological impacts of southern pine beetle. Southern Pine Beetle II. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-140 2011, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville. R.N. Coulson, K.D. Klepzig (Eds.).
49. Tran J.K., Ylioja T., Billings R., Ayres M.P. Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis. Ecological Applications 2007, 2007(17):882-899.
50. Turchin P., Davidson J., Hayes J.L. Effects of thinning on development of southern pine beetle infestations in old growth stands. Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 1999, 23:193-196.
51. Ungerer M.J., Ayres M.P., Lombardero M.J. Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmerman (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Journal of Biogeography 1999, 26:1133-1145.
52. USDA Forest Service Forest inventory and analysis data. Washington: USDA Forest Service; 2010. Available online: (accessed August 2010). http://apps.fs.fed.us/fiadb-downloads/datamart.html.
53. USDA Forest Service Southern Pine Beetle Hazard Maps v1.0 [spatial data]. Washington: USDA Forest Service; 2010. Available online: (accessed October 2011). http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/nidrm_spb.shtml.
54. Wood D.L. The role of pheromones, kairomones, and allomones in the host selection and colonization behavior of bark beetles. Annual Review of Entomology 1982, 27:411-446.
55. Ylioja T., Slone D.H., Ayers M.P. Mismatch between herbivore behavior and demographics contributes to scale-dependence of host susceptibility in two pine species. Forest Science 2005, 51:522-531.