Confidence intervals for a spatially generalized, continuous simulation flood frequency model for Great Britain

Water Resources Research

Volumn 40, Issue 7, 2004, Pages

  Lamb, Robert ^a,b   Kay, Alison L ^a  

^a CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^b JBA CONSULTING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Britain; Continuous simulation; Flood frequency; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CALIBRATION; CATCHMENTS; FLOODS; RAIN; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RUNOFF; STATISTICAL METHODS;

FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION; TOPOGRAPHY;

WATER RESOURCES;

FLOOD FREQUENCY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; PARAMETERIZATION; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 4143132094     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2003WR002428     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Abdulla, F. A., and D. P. Lettenmaier (1997), Development of regional parameter estimation equations for a macroscale hydrologic model, J. Hydrol., 197, 230-257.
2. Beven, K. (1987), Towards the use of catchment geomorphology in flood frequency predictions, Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 12, 6-82.
3. Beven, K. (1993), Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling, Adv. Water Resour., 16, 41-51.
4. Beven, K., and A. Binley (1992), The future of distributed models - Model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Processes, 6, 279-298.
5. Beven, K., and M. J. Kirkby (1979), A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology, Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24, 43-69.
6. Beven, K., R. Lamb, P. Quinn, R. Romanowicz, and J. Freer (1995), TOPMODEL, in Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, edited by V. P. Singh, pp. 627-668, Water Resour. Publ., Highlands Ranch, Colo.
7. Boorman, D. B., J. M. Hollis, and A. Lilly (1995), Hydrology of soil types: A hydrologically based classification of soils in the United Kingdom, Rep. 126, Inst. of Hydrol., Wallingford, U. K.
8. Bradley, A. A., and K. W. Potter (1992), Flood frequency analysis of simulated flows, Water Resour. Res., 28, 2375-2385.
9. Bras, R. L., D. R. Gaboury, D. S. Grossman, and G. J. Vicen (1985), Spatially varying rainfall and flood risk analysis, J. Hydraul. Eng., 111, 754-773.
10. Calver, A. (1993), The time-area formulation revisited, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Maritime Energy, 101, 31-36.
11. Calver, A. (1996), Development and experience of the "TATE" rainfall-runoff model, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Maritime Energy, 118, 168-176.
12. Calver, A. R., and R. Lamb (2001), Generalised river flood frequency estimation using continuous simulation, paper presented at 36th DEFRA Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, Flood Manage. Div., Dep. for Environ., Food and Rural Affairs, Keele, U. K.
13. Calver, A., R. Lamb, and S. Morris (1999), River flood frequency estimation using continuous runoff modeling, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Maritime Energy, 136, 225-234.
14. Cameron, D. S., K. J. Beven, J. Tawn, S. Blazkova, and P. Naden (1999), Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty), J. Hydrol., 219, 169-187.
15. Clarke, R. T. (1994), Statistical Modelling in Hydrology, 412 pp., John Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
16. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (2001), Flood and Coastal Defence Project Appraisal Guidance (FCDPAG1), report, 42 pp., London.
17. Draper, N. R., and H. Smith (1998), Applied Regression Analysis, 3rd ed., 706 pp., John Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
18. Duan, Q. S., S. Sorooshian, and V. K. Gupta (1992), Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1015-1031.
19. Fernandez, W., R. M. Vogel, and A. Sankarasubramanian (2000), Regional calibration of a watershed model, Hydrol. Sci. J., 45, 689-708.
20. Goel, N. K., R. S. Kurothe, and B. S. Mathur (2000), A derived flood frequency distribution for correlated rainfall intensity and duration, J. Hydrol., 228, 56-67.
21. Gupta, H. V., S. Sorooshian, and P. O. Yapo (1998), Towards improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and non-commensurable measures of information, Water Resour. Res., 34, 751-763.
22. Hashemi, A. M., M. Franchini, and P. E. O'Connell (2000), Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: part I - A simple sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 463-482.
23. Hosking, J. R. M., and J. R. Wallis (1987), Parameter and quantile estimation for the generalised Pareto distribution, Technometrics, 29, 339-349.
24. Institute of Hydrology (1999), Flood Estimation Handbook, 5 vol., Wallingford, U. K.
25. Kuczera, G. (1983), Improved parameter inference in catchment models: 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty, Water Resour. Res., 19, 1151-1162.
26. Lamb, R. (1999), Calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation, Water Resour. Res., 35, 3103-3114.
27. Lamb, R., and B. Gannon (1996), The establishment of a database of hourly catchment average rainfall and flow for flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation, technical report, 50 pp., Inst. of Hydrol., Wallingford, U. K.
28. Lamb, R., J. Crewett, and A. Calver (2000a), Progress in the spatial generalisation of "continuous simulation" flood frequency modeling, in River Flood Defence, vol. 1, Kassel Rep. Hydraul. Eng. 9/2000, edited by F. Toensmann and M. Koch, pp. D117-D125, Herkules, Kassel, Germany.
29. Lamb, R., J. Crewett, and A. Calver (2000b), Relating hydrological model parameters and catchment properties to estimate flood frequencies from simulated river flows, paper presented at the BHS 7th National Hydrology Symposium, Inst. of Hydrol., Newcastle, U. K., Sept.
30. Moore, R. J. (1985), The probability-distributed principle and runoff production at point and basin scales, Hydrol. Sci. J., 30, 273-297.
31. Moore, R. J., and R. T. Clarke (1981), A distribution-function approach to rainfall-runoff modeling, Water Resour. Res., 17, 1367-1382.
32. Naden, P. S. (1992), Analysis and use of peaks-over-threshold data in flood estimation, in Floods and Flood Management, edited by A. J. Saul, pp. 131-143, Kluwer Acad., Norwell, Mass.
33. Nash, J. E., and J. V. Sutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptual models, 1, A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290.
34. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (1975), Flood Studies Report, 5 vol., London.
35. Post, D. A., J. A. Jones, and G. E. Grant (1998), An improved methodology for predicting the daily hydrologic response of ungauged catchments, Environ. Modell. Software, 13, 395-403.
36. Sefton, C. M., and S. M. Howarth (1998), Relationships between dynamic response characteristics and physical catchment descriptors of catchments in England and Wales, J. Hydrol., 211, 1-16.
37. Sivapalan, M., E. F. Wood, and K. J. Beven (1990), On hydrologic similarity: 3. A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphological unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation, Water Resour. Res., 26, 43-58.
38. Sorooshian, S., and J. A. Dracup (1980), Stochastic parameter estimation procedures for hydrologic rainfall-runoff models: Correlated and heteroscedastic error cases, Water Resour. Res., 16, 430-442.
39. Thompson, N., I. A. Barrie, and M. Ayles (1981), The Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System MORECS, report, 69 pp., Met Off., Bracknell, U. K.
40. Wheater, H. S. (2002), Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 360, 1409-1432.