Internal variability of the dynamically downscaled tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific by the IPRC regional atmospheric model

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 2104-2122

  Wu, Chun Chieh ^a   Zhan, Ruifen ^b   Lu, Yi ^a   Wang, Yuqing ^c  

^a NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^b NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

Author keywords

Model evaluation performance; Regional models; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MODEL; CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; INITIAL PERTURBATION; INTERANNUAL; INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE; INTERANNUAL VARIATION; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; MODEL EVALUATION; MODEL SOLUTION; MULTISCALE INTERACTIONS; NONLINEAR PROCESS; REGIONAL MODEL; RESEARCH CENTER; TIME-SCALES; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; HURRICANES; INITIAL VALUE PROBLEMS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; STORM; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 84863376927     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00143.1     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Alexandru, A., R. de Elia, and R. Laprise, 2007: Internal variability in regional climate downscaling at the seasonal scale. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3221-3238.
2. Bender, M. A., T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner, and I. M. Held, 2010: Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science, 327, 454-458, doi:10.1126/science.1180568.
3. Bony, S., Y. Sud, K. M. Lau, J. Susskind, and S. Saha, 1997: Comparison and satellite assessment of NASA/DAO and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses over tropical ocean: Atmospheric hydrology and radiation. J. Climate, 10, 1441-1462.
4. Camargo, S. J., H. L. Li, and L. Q. Sun, 2007: Feasibility study for downscaling seasonal tropical cyclone activity using the NCEP regional spectral model. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 311-325.
5. Caya, D., and S. Biner, 2004: Internal variability of RCM simulations over an annual cycle. Climate Dyn., 22, 33-46.
6. Chen, J.-H., and S.-J. Lin, 2011: The remarkable predictability of interannual variability ofAtlantic hurricanes during the past decade. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11804, doi:10.1029/2011GL047629.
7. Christensen, O. B., M. A. Gaertner, J. A. Prego, and J. Polcher, 2001: Internal variability of regional climate models. Climate Dyn., 17, 875-887.
8. Dickinson, R. E., R. M. Errico, F. Giorgi, and G. T. Bates, 1989: A regional climate model for the western United States. Climatic Change, 15, 383-422.
9. Dickinson, R. E., A. Henderson-Sellers, and P. J. Kennedy, 1993: Biosphereatmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-3871STR, 72 pp.
10. Edwards, J. M., and A. Slingo, 1996: Studies with a flexible new radiation code. I: Choosing a configuration for a large-scale model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 689-719.
11. Efron, B., 1979: Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife. Ann. Stat., 7, 1-26.
12. Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
13. Ferro, C. A. T., A. Hannachi, and D. B. Stephenson, 2005: Simple nonparametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather. J. Climate, 18, 4344-4354.
14. Feser, F., and H. von Storch, 2008: A dynamical downscaling case study for typhoons in Southeast Asia using a regional climate model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1806-1815.
15. Giorgi, F., and G. T. Bates, 1989: The climatological skill of a regionalmodel over complex terrain. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2325-2347.
16. Giorgi, F., and L. O. Mearns, 1999: Introduction to special section: Regional climate modeling revisited. J. Geophys. Res., 104 (D6), 6335-6352.
17. Giorgi, F., and X. Bi, 2000: A study of internal variability of a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 29 503-29 521.
18. Giorgi, F., M. R. Marinucci, G. T. Gates, and G. De Canio, 1993: Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part II: Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2814-2832.
19. Holland, G. J., 1995: Scale interactions in the western Pacific monsoon. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 56, 57-79.
20. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
21. Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, I. M. Held, and R. E. Tuleya, 2007: Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-grid regional model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1549-1565.
22. Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, G. A. Vecchi, and I. M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-firstcentury warming conditions. Nat. Geosci., 1, 359-364.
23. Landman, W. A., A. Seth, and S. J. Camargo, 2005: The effect of regional climate model domain choice on the simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices in the southwestern Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 18, 1263-1274.
24. Langland, R. H., and C.-S. Liou, 1996: Implementation of an E2_, parameterization of vertical subgrid-scale mixing in a regional model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 905-918.
25. Liang, X., K. E. Kunkel, and A. N. Samel, 2001: Development of a regional climate model for U. S. Midwest applications. Part I: Sensitivity to buffer zone treatment. J. Climate, 14, 4363-4378.
26. Nguyen, K. C., and K. J. E. Walsh, 2001: Interannual, decadal, and transient greenhouse simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices in a regional climate model of the South Pacific. J. Climate, 14, 3043-3054.
27. Nicolis, C., 2007: Dynamics ofmodel error: The role of the boundary conditions. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 204-215.
28. Nutter, P., D. Stensrud, and M. Xue, 2004: Effects of coarsely resolved and temporally interpolated lateral boundary conditions on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2358-2377.
29. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
30. Seth, A., and F. Giorgi, 1998: The effects of domain choice on summer precipitation simulation and sensitivity in a regional climate model. J. Climate, 11, 2698-2712.
31. Stowasser, M., Y. Wang, and K. P. Hamilton, 2007: Tropical cyclone changes in the western North Pacific in a global warming scenario. J. Climate, 20, 2378-2396.
32. Sun, Z., and L. Rikus, 1999: Improved application of exponential sum fitting transmissions to inhomogeneous atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 6291-6303.
33. Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1779-1800.
34. Vannitsem, S., and F. Chome, 2005: One-way nested regional climate simulations and domain size. J. Climate, 18, 229-233.
35. Vanvyve, E., N. Hall, C. Messager, S. Leroux, and J.-P. van Ypersele, 2008: Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa. Climate Dyn., 30, 191-202.
36. Walsh, K. J. E., and J. Syktus, 2003: Simulations of observed interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation east of Australia. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 4, 28-40.
37. Walsh, K. J. E., K. C. Nguyen, and J. L. McGregor, 2004: Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia. Climate Dyn., 22, 47-56.
38. Wang, Y., 1999: A triply-nested movable mesh tropical cyclone model with explicit cloud microphysics (TCM3). BMRC Research Rep. 74, 81 pp.
39. Wang, Y., 2001: An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nested movable mesh primitive equation model: TCM3. Part I: Model description and control experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1370-1394.
40. Wang, Y., O. L. Sen, and B. Wang, 2003: A highly resolved regional climate model (IPRC-RegCM) and its simulation of the 1998 severe precipitation events over China. Part I: Model description and verification of simulation. J. Climate, 16, 1721-1738.
41. Wang, Y., L. R. Leung, J. L. McGregor, D.-K. Lee, W.-C. Wang, Y. H. Ding, and F. Kimura, 2004a: Regional climate modeling: Progress, challenges, and prospects. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1599-1628.
42. Wang, Y., S.-P. Xie, H.-M. Xu, and B. Wang, 2004b: Regional model simulations of marine boundary layer clouds over the southeast Pacific off South America. Part I: Control experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 274-296.
43. Wang, Y., L. Zhou, and K. Hamilton, 2007: Effect of convective entrainment/detrainment on simulation of tropical precipitation diurnal cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 567-585.
44. Warner, T. T., R. A. Peterson, and R. E. Treadon, 1997: A tutorial on lateral boundary conditions as a basic and potentially serious limitation to regional numerical weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2599-2617.
45. Weisse, R., H. Heyen, and H. von Storch, 2000: Sensitivity of a regional atmospheric model to a sea state-dependent roughness and the need of ensemble calculations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3631-3642.
46. Wu, W., A. H. Lynch, and A. Rivers, 2005: Estimating the uncertainty in a regional climate model related to initial and lateral boundary conditions. J. Climate, 18, 917-933.
47. Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and X. Lei, 2011a: Contributions of ENSO and east Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of northwest Pacific tropical cyclone frequency. J. Climate, 24, 509-521.
48. Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and C.-C. Wu, 2011b: Impact of SSTA in the east Indian Ocean on the frequency of northwest Pacific tropical cyclones: A regional atmospheric model study. J. Climate, 24, 6227-6242.