Multidecadal drought cycles in the great basin recorded by the Great Salt Lake: Modulation from a transition-phase teleconnection

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 1711-1721

  Wang, Shih Yu ^a   Gillies, Robert R ^a   Reichler, Thomas ^b  

^a UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

Author keywords

Decadal variability; Drought; Sea surface temperature

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALY; CIRCULATION ANOMALIES; CONTROL SIMULATION; COUPLED MODELS; DATA SETS; DECADAL VARIABILITY; DROUGHT CYCLES; GREAT BASIN; GREAT SALT LAKE; GULF OF ALASKA; INTER-DECADAL PACIFIC OSCILLATIONS; LAKE LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS; METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION; MOISTURE FLUXES; NORTH AMERICAN; REANALYSIS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); SPECTRAL COHERENCE; STATISTICAL EVIDENCE; TELECONNECTIONS; TRANSITION POINT; TWENTIETH CENTURY; WAVE TRAIN; WET-DRY CYCLE;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; PHASE SHIFT; PHASE SHIFTERS;

DROUGHT;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; DECADAL VARIATION; DROUGHT; LAKE LEVEL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TELECONNECTION;

GREAT SALT LAKE; GULF OF ALASKA; PACIFIC OCEAN; UNITED STATES; UTAH;

EID: 84863251482     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4225.1     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Allan, R, 2000: ENSO and climatic variability in the last 150 years. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability, Global and Regional Impacts, H. F. Diaz and V. Markgrav, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 3-56.
2. Branstator, G, 1983: Horizontal energy propagation in a barotropic atmosphere with meridional and zonal structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1689-1708.
3. Bunge, L., and A. J. Clarke, 2009: A verified estimation of the El Niño index Niño-3.4 since 1877. J. Climate, 22, 3979-3992.
4. Cayan, D. R., M. D. Dettinger, H. F. Diaz, and N. E. Graham, 1998: Decadal variability of precipitation overwestern North America. J. Climate, 11, 3148-3166.
5. Compo, G. P., and et al., 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1-28.
6. Cook, E. R., and P. J. Krusic, 2004: North American summer PDSI reconstructions. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series 2004-045, NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder, CO, 24 pp.
7. Cook, E. R., R. Seager, M.A.Cane, andD.W. Stahle, 2007:North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences. Earth Sci. Rev., 81, 93-134.
8. Cook, E. R., R. D. D'Arrigo, and K. J. Anchukaitis, 2008: ENSO reconstructions from long tree-ring chronologies: Unifying the differences? Proc. Workshop on Reconciling ENSO Chronologies for the Past 500 Years, Moorea, French Polynesia, Meteo-France.
9. Delworth, T. L., and et al., 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19, 643-674.
10. DeWeaver, E., and S. Nigam, 2004: On the forcing of ENSO teleconnections by anomalous heating and cooling. J. Climate, 17, 3225-3235.
11. Folland, C. K., J. A. Renwick, M. J. Salinger, and A. B. Mullan, 2002: Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1643, doi:10.1029/2001GL014201.
12. Gershunov, A., and T. P. Barnett, 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer.Meteor. Soc., 79, 2715-2725.
13. Gillies, R. R., O.-Y. Chung, S.-Y. Wang, and P. Kokoszka, 2011: Incorporation of Pacific SSTs in a time series model towards a longer-term forecast for the Great Salt Lake elevation. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 474-480.
14. Gray, S. T., J. L. Betancourt, C. L. Fastie, and S. T. Jackson, 2003: Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in droughtsensitive tree-ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1316, doi:10.1029/2002GL016154.
15. Herweijer, C., R. Seager, E. R. Cook, and J. Emile-Geay, 2007: North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data. J. Climate, 20, 1353-1376.
16. Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813-829.
17. Iacobucci, A., and A. Noullez, 2005:Afrequency selective filter for short-length time series. Comput. Econ., 25, 75-102.
18. Jiang, X., and N.-C. Lau, 2008: Intraseasonal teleconnection between North American and western North Pacific monsoons with 20-day time scale. J. Climate, 21, 2664-2679.
19. Lall, U., and M. E. Mann, 1995: The Great Salt Lake: A barometer of low-frequency climatic variability. Water Resour. Res., 31, 2503-2515.
20. Lamb, K.W., T. C. Piechota, O.A. Aziz, and G. A. Tootle, 2011: A basis for extending long-term streamflow forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. J. Hydrol. Eng., 1000, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000153.
21. Livezey, R. E., and W. Y. Chen, 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 46-59.
22. Mann, M. E., 2004: On smoothing potentially non-stationary climate time series. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07214, doi:10.1029/2004GL019569.
23. Mann, M. E., and J. Park, 1993: Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 1055-1058.
24. Mann, M. E., and J. Park, 1996: Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Model versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1111-1114.
25. Mann, M. E., U. Lall, and B. Saltzman, 1995: Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 937-940.
26. Mantua, N. J., S. R.Hare, Y.Zhang, J.M.Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079.
27. Moon, Y.-I., and U. Lall, 1996: Atmospheric flow indices and interannual Great Salt Lake variability. J. Hydrol. Eng., 1, 55-62.
28. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Gleckler, 2009: Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 8441-8446.
29. Plumb, R. A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217-229.
30. Reichler, T., and J. Kim, 2008: How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 303-311.
31. Santer, B. D., and et al., 2009: Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 14 778-14 783.
32. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004: On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science, 303, 1855-1859.
33. Schubert, S. D., and et al., 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to droughtrelated SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272.
34. Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. J. Climate, 18, 4065-4088.
35. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296.
36. Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 2001: A formulation of a phaseindependent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 608-627.
37. UDNR, 2007: Drought in Utah: Learning from the past-Preparing for the future. Utah StateWater Plan, 145 pp. [Available online at http://www.water.utah.gov/DroughtReport/Drought2008A.pdf.]
38. van Oldenborgh, G. J., S. Y. Philip, and M. Collins, 2005: El Niño in a changing climate: A multi-model study. Ocean Sci., 1, 81-95.
39. Wang, S.-Y., R. R. Gillies, J. Jin, and L. E. Hipps, 2010: Coherence between the Great Salt Lake level and the Pacific quasidecadal oscillation. J. Climate, 23, 2161-2177.
40. Wang, S.-Y., R. R. Gillies, L. E. Hipps, and J. Jin, 2011: A transition-phase teleconnection of the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation. Climate Dyn., 36, 681-693.
41. Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038710.
42. Wittenberg, A. T., A. Rosati, N.-C. Lau, and J. J. Ploshay, 2006: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part III: Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. J. Climate, 19, 698-722.
43. Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2007: Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23708, doi:10.1029/2007GL031601.
44. Zhang, R.-H., and S. Levitus, 1997: Structure and cycle of decadal variability of upper-ocean temperature in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 10, 710-727.
45. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.
46. Zhang, Z., and M. E. Mann, 2005: Coupled patterns of spatiotemporal variability in Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and conterminous U.S. drought. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D03108, doi:10.1029/2004JD004896.