Experimental tropical cyclone prediction using the GFDL 25-km-resolution global atmospheric model

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 26, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 1008-1019

  Gall, Jeffrey S ^a   Ginis, Isaac ^a   Lin, Shian Jiann ^b   Marchok, Timothy P ^b   Chen, Jan Huey ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate models; Forecast verification; Model evaluation performance; Numerical weather prediction forecasting

Indexed keywords

ATLANTIC BASIN; CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT; DATA ASSIMILATION; FORECASTING SYSTEM; FORECASTING TOOLS; GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS LABORATORIES; GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELS; GLOBAL MODELING; HIGH RESOLUTION; HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC MODELS; HINDCASTING; HINDCASTS; HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION; HURRICANE PREDICTION; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; INTRASEASONAL TIME SCALE; LEADTIME; LIMITED AREA MODELS; MODEL EVALUATION/PERFORMANCE; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; OCEAN MODEL; REAL-TIME FORECASTING; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTIONS; VORTEX STRUCTURES; WAVE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; FORECASTING; HURRICANES;

THREE DIMENSIONAL;

ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; CLIMATE MODELING; DATA ASSIMILATION; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATLANTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84863154513     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05015.1     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1005-1015.
2. Aberson, S. D., and C. R. Sampson, 2003: On the predictability of tropical cyclone tracks in the northwest Pacific basin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1491-1497.
3. Anderson, J., and Coauthors, 2004: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. J. Climate, 17, 4641-4673.
4. Barnes, S. L., 1964: A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396-409.
5. Belanger, J. I., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2010: Predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity on intraseasonal time scales. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 4362-4374.
6. Bender, M. A., and I.Ginis, 2000: Real-case simulations of hurricane- ocean interaction using a high-resolution coupled model: Effects on hurricane intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 917-946.
7. Bender, M. A., I.Ginis, and Y. Kurihara, 1993: Numerical simulations of tropical cyclone-ocean interaction with a high-resolution coupled model. J. Geophys. Res., 98 (D12), 23 245-23 263.
8. Bender, M. A., I.Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The operational GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system and summary of its performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3965-3989.
9. Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, P. J. Klotzbach, and C. W. Landsea, 2007: Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts.WMOBull., 56, 297-309.
10. Cóté, J., S. Gravel, A. Mthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth, 1998: The operational CMC-MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: Design considerations and formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1373-1395.
11. Cullen,M. J. P., 1993: The Unified Forecast/ClimateModel. Meteor. Mag., 122, 81-122.
12. Davis, C., and Coauthors, 2008: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1990-2005.
13. DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and C. R. Sampson, 2007: Evaluation of long-term trend in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 97, 19-28.
14. Elsberry, R. L., M. S. Jordan, and F. Vitart, 2010: Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWFmonthly forecast model. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 10, 1-10.
15. Fan, Y., I. Ginis, and T. Hara, 2009: The effect of wind-wave- current interaction on air-sea momentum fluxes and ocean response in tropical cyclones. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39, 1019-1034.
16. Fraedrich, K., and L. M. Leslie, 1989: Estimates of cyclone track predictability. I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115, 79-92.
17. Franklin, J., 2010: 2009 National Hurricane Center forecast verification report.NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center, 71 pp.
18. Gentry, M. S., and G. M. Lackmann, 2010: Sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to horizontal resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 688-704.
19. Goerss, J. S., and R. A. Jeffries, 1994: Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the NavyOperationalGlobal Atmospheric Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 557-576.
20. Heming, J. T., J. C. L. Chan, and A. M. Radford, 1995: A new scheme for the initialization of tropical cyclones in the U.K. MeteorologicalOfficeGlobalModel.Meteor.Appl., 2, 171-184.
21. Hill, K. A., and G. M. Lackmann, 2009: Analysis of idealized tropical cyclone simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model: Sensitivity to turbulence parameterization and grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 745-765.
22. Hogan, T. F., and T. E. Rosmond, 1991: The description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's Spectral Forecast Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1786-1815.
23. Klotzbach, P. J., 2010: On the Madden-Julian oscillation-Atlantic hurricane relationship. J. Climate, 23, 282-293.
24. Knaff, J. A., M. DeMaria, C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from climatology and persistence.Wea. Forecasting, 18, 204-223.
25. Knaff, J. A., C. R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T. P. Marchok, J. M. Gross, and C. J. McAdie, 2007: Statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction using climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 781-791.
26. LeRoy, A., and M. C. Wheeler, 2008: Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3637-3654.
27. Lin, S.-J., 2004:A"vertically Lagrangian" finite-volume dynamical core for global models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2293-2307.
28. Lin, X., and Coauthors, 2006: A view of Hurricane Katrina with early 21st century technology. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 87, doi:10.1029/2006EO410002.
29. Lin, Y. L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville, 1983: Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Appl. Meteor., 22, 1065-1092.
30. Lord, S. J., 1993: Recent developments in tropical cyclone track forecasting with the NMC global analysis and forecast system. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 290-291.
31. Marchok, T. P., 2002: How the NCEP tropical cyclone tracker works. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer.Meteor. Soc., P1.13. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/25HURR/techprogram/paper_37628.htm.]
32. Miura, H., M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, A. T. Noda, and K. Oouchi, 2007: A Madden-Julian oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model. Science, 318, 1763-1765.
33. Moon, I.-J., I. Ginis, and T. Hara, 2004: Effect of surface waves of air-sea momentum exchange. Part II: Behavior of drag coefficient under tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2334-2348.
34. Putman, W. M., and S. J. Lin, 2007: Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids. J. Comput. Phys., 227, 55-78.
35. Roundy, P. E., 2008: Probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclones utilizing wave and climate modes. Preprints, 28th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10B.7. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_137364.htm.]
36. Roundy, P. E., and C. J. Schreck, 2009: A combined wavenumber-frequency and time extended EOF approach for tracking the progress of modes of large-scale organized convection. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 161-173.
37. Shen, B.-W., R. Atlas, O. Reale, S.-J. Lin, J. D. Chern, J. Chang, and C. Henze, 2006: Hurricane forecasts with a global mesoscale-resolving model: Preliminary results with Hurricane Katrina (2005). Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13813, doi:10.1029/2006GL026143.
38. Vitart, F., 2004: Monthly forecasting at ECMWF. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2761-2779.
39. Vitart, F., J. L. Anderson, and W. F. Stern, 1997: Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J. Climate, 10, 745-760.
40. Vitart, F., A. Leroy, and M. C. Wheeler, 2010: A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3671-3682.
41. Whitaker, J. S., X. Wei, and F. Vitart, 2006: Improving week-2 forecasts with multimodel reforecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2279-2284.
42. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. InternationalGeophysics Series,Vol. 59, Academic Press, 627 pp.
43. Zhang, C., 2005:Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, 1-36.
44. Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 22, 6653-6678.