Statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction using climatology and persistence

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 781-791

  Knaff, John A ^a   Sampson, Charles R ^b   DeMaria, Mark ^a   Marchok, Timothy P ^a   Gross, James M ^a   McAdie, Colin J ^a  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; CLIMATOLOGY; STATISTICAL METHODS; VORTICITY; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND;

STATISTICAL-PARAMETRIC MODEL; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WIND RADII;

STORMS;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATOLOGY; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EAST); PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 38849151511     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF1026.1     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasting in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1005-1015.
2. Chu, J.-H., 1994: A regression model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Naval Research Laboratory Memo. Rep. 7541-94-7215, 33 pp. [Available from Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Monterey, CA 93943-5502.]
3. DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L. K. Shay, J. A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2005: Further improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20, 531-543.
4. DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and C. R. Sampson, 2007: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., in press.
5. Demuth, J. L., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2004: Validation of an Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 282-296:
6. Demuth, J. L., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2006: Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1573-1581.
7. Franklin, J. L., C. J. McAdie, and M. B. Lawrence, 2003: Trends in track forecasting for tropical cyclones threatening the United States, 1970-2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1197-1203.
8. Goerss, J. S., C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2004: A history of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 633-638,
9. Jarvinen, B. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1979: Statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity for the North Atlantic basin. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10, 22 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.]
10. Jarvinen, B. R., C. J. Neumann, and M. A. S. Davis, 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, Coral Gables, FL, 21 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.]
11. JTWC, cited 2005: Tropical cyclone best track data site. [Available online at https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/best_tracks/.]
12. Kimball, S. K., and M. S. Mulekar, 2004: A 15-year climatology of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Part I: Size parameters. J. Climate, 17, 3555-3575.
13. Knabb R., E. Rappaport, M. Mainelli, J. Franklin, C. Lauer and A. Krautkramer, cited 2006: Progress toward operational implementation of tropical cyclone wind probability products. [Available online at http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc06/Presentations/ 06%20session6%20Decision-making%20Products/ s6-04Session%206%20(knabb).ppt#492,31,Slide31.]
14. Knaff, J. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1997: An El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatology and persistence (CLIPER) forecasting scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633-652.
15. Knaff, J. A., M. DeMaria, C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 80-92.
16. Knaff, J. A., C. R. Sampson, and M. DeMaria, 2005: An operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 688-699.
17. Knaff, J. A., C. P. Guard, J. P. Kossin, T. P. Marchok, T. Smith, and N. Surgi, 2006: Operational guidance and skill in forecasting tropical cyclone structure change. Workshop Topic Reports of the Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Meteorology Research Programme Rep. 72, 29 pp. [Available from World Meteorological Organization, Case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland, and online at http://www.wmo.ch/web/arep/arep-home.html.]
18. Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C. S. Velden, R. J. Murnane, and J. D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 89-101.
19. McAdie, C. J., 2004: Development of a wind-radii CLIPER model. Preprints, 24th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 170-171.
20. McAdie, C. J., and M.B. Lawrence, 2000: Improvements in tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Atlantic basin, 1970-98. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 989-998.
21. Merrill, R. T., 1980: A statistical tropical cyclone motion forecasting system for the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 14, 21 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.]
22. Merrill, R. T., 1984: A comparison of large and small tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1408-1418.
23. Mueller, K. J., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2006: Objective estimation of tropical cyclone wind structure from infrared satellite data. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 990-1005.
24. Neumann, C. J., 1972: An alternate to the HURAN (hurricane analog) tropical cyclone forecasting system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 23 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161.]
25. Sampson, C. R., and A. J. Schrader, 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 81, 1231-1240.
26. Sampson, C. R., J. A. Knaff, and E. M. Fukada, 2007: Operational evaluation of a selective consensus in the western North Pacific basin. Wea. Forecasting, in press.
27. Schwerdt, R. W., F. P. Ho, and R. R. Watkins, 1979: Meteorological criteria for standard project hurricane and probable maximum hurricane wind fields, Gulf and east coasts of the United States. NOAA Tech. Rep. NWS 23, 317 pp. [Available from National Hurricane/Tropical Prediction Center Library, 11691 SW 117th St., Miami, FL 33165-2149.]
28. Shapiro, L. J., and M. T. Montgomery, 1993: A three-dimensional balance theory for rapidly rotating vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3322-3335.
29. Stephenson, D. B., 2000: Use of the "odds ratio" for diagnosing forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 221-232.
30. von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 484 pp.
31. Weatherford, C. L., and W. M. Gray, 1988: Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance. Part II: Structural variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1044-1056.
32. Willoughby, H. E., and M. E. Rahn, 2004: Parametric representation of the primary hurricane vortex. Part I: Observations and evaluation of the Holland (1980) model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 3033-3048.