Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 38, Issue 11-12, 2012, Pages 2593-2612

  Bulić, Ivana Herceg ^a   Kucharski, Fred ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ZAGREB   (Croatia)

^b ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); ROSSBY WAVE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SPRING (SEASON); TEMPERATURE ANOMALY;

EUROPE; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 84861805900     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1151-9     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Basnett T, Parker D (1997) Development of the global mean sea level pressure data set GMSLP2, Climate Research Technical Note, 79, Hadley Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK.
2. Bracco A, Kucharski F, Kallummal R, Molteni F (2004) Internal variability, external forcing and climate trends in multidecadal AGCM ensembles. Clim Dyn 23: 659-678.
3. Branković Č, Palmer TN (1997) Atmospheric seasonal predictability and estimates of ensemble size. Mon Weather Rev 125: 859-874.
4. Brönnimann S (2007) Impact of El Niño-Southern oscillation on European climate. Rev Geophys 45: RG3003. doi 10. 1029/2006RG000199.
5. Chang P, Saravanan R, Ji L (2003) Tropical Atlantic seasonal predictability: the roles of El Nino remote influence and thermodynamic air-sea feedback. Geophys Res Lett 30: 1501. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL016119.
6. Czaja A, Frankignoul C (1999) Influence of the North Atlantic SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 26: 2969-2972.
7. Czaja A, van der Vaart P, Marshall J (2002) A diagnostic study of the role of remote forcing in tropical Atlantic variability. J Clim 15: 3280-3290.
8. Dai A, Wigley TML (2000) Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 27: 1283-1286.
9. Enfield DB, Mayer DA (1997) Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Geophys Res 102: 929-945.
10. Fraedrich K (1994) An ENSO impact on Europe? A review. Tellus 46A: 541-552.
11. Fraedrich K, Müller K (1992) Climate anomalies associated with ENSO extremes. Int J Climatol 12: 25-31.
12. García-Serrano J, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Camara A, Bladé I, Zurita P (2010) Rotational atmospheric circulation during North Atlantic-European winter: the influence of ENSO. Clim Dyn. doi 10. 1007/s00382-010-0968-y.
13. Gates WL (1992) AMIP: the atmospheric model intercomparison project. Bull Amer Met Soc 73: 1962-1970.
14. Halpert MS, Ropelewski CF (1992) Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 5: 577-593.
15. Hazeleger W, Severijns C, Seager R, Molteni F (2005) Tropical Pacific-driven decadel energy transport variability. J Clim 18: 2037-2051.
16. Herceg Bulić I (2010) The sensitivity of climate response to the wintertime Niño3. 4 sea surface temperature anomalies of 1855-2002. Int J Climatol, n/a. doi 10. 1002/joc. 2255.
17. Herceg Bulić I, Branković Č (2007) ENSO forcing of the Northern Hemisphere climate in a large ensemble model simulations. Clim Dyn 28: 231-254.
18. Herceg Bulić I, Branković Č, Kucharski F (2011) Winter ENSO teleconnections in a warmer climate. Clim Dyn. doi 10. 1007/s00382-010-0987-8.
19. Hu Z-Z, Huang B (2007) The predictive skill and the most predictable pattern in the tropical Atlantic: the effect of ENSO. Mon Weather Rev 135(5): 1786-1806.
20. Jin EK, Kinter JL, Wang B, Park C-K, Kang I-S, Kirtman BP, Kug J-S, Kumar A, Luo J-J, Schemm J (2008) Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Clim Dyn 31: 647-664. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0397-3.
21. Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Briegleb BP, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1996) Description of the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). NCAR Tech. Note, NCAR/TN420 + STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, pp 152. (Available from NCAR, Boulder, CO 80307).
22. Kiladis GN, Diaz HF (1989) Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 2: 1069-1090.
23. Knippertz P, Ulbrich U, Marques F, Corte-Real J (2003) Decadal changes in the link between El Niño and springtime North Atlantic oscillation and European-North African rainfall. Int J Climatol 23: 1293-1311. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 944.
24. Kucharski F, Molteni F (2003) On non-linearities in a forced North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Dyn 21: 677-687.
25. Kucharski F, Molteni F, Bracco A (2006) Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Dyn 26: 79-91.
26. Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Tompkins AM, Feudale L, Ruti P, Dell'Aquila A (2009) A Gill-Matsuno-type mechanism explains the tropical Atlantic influence on African and Indian monsoon rainfall. QJR Meteorol Soc 135: 569-579. doi: 10. 1002/qj. 406.
27. Kumar A, Hoerling MP (2003) The nature and causes for the delayed atmospheric response to El Niño. J Clim 16: 1391-1403.
28. Kushnir Y, Robinson WA, Blade I, Hall NMJ, Peng S, Sutton R (2002) Atmospheric GCM responses to extratropical SST anomalies: synthesis and evaluation. J Climate 15: 2233-2256.
29. Lau N-C, Nath M (1996) The role of the "atmospheric bridge" in linking tropical Pacific ENSO events to extratropical SST anomalies. J Clim 9: 2036-2056.
30. Lau N-C, Leetmaa A, Nath MJ, Wang H-L (2005) Influences of ENSO-induced Indo-Western Pacific SST anomalies on extratropical atmospheric variability during the boreal summer. J Clim 18: 2922-2942.
31. Mariotti A, Zeng N, Lau K-M (2002) Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO-a seasonally varying relationship. Geophys Res Lett 29(12). doi 10. 1029/2001GL014248.
32. Merkel U, Latif M (2002) A high resolution AGCM study of the El Niño impact on the North Atlantic/European sector. Geophys Res Lett. 29(9). doi 10. 1029/2001GL013726.
33. Mitchell TD, TR Carter, PD Jones, M Hulme, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 30. (Available online at http://www. tyndall. ac. uk/sites/default/files/wp55. pdf).
34. Molteni F (2003) Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parameterizations. I: model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Clim Dyn 20: 175-191.
35. Moron V, Ward MN (1998) ENSO teleconnections with climate variability in the European and African sector. Weather 53: 287-295.
36. Müller W, Roeckner E (2008) ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Clim Dyn 31: 533-549.
37. New M, Hulme M, Jones PD (2000) Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part 2: development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13: 2217-2238. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442.
38. Nieves Lorenzo M, Taboada JJ, Iglesias I, Gómez-Gesteira M (2010) Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas. Clim Change. doi 10. 1007/s10584-010-9991-6.
39. Park S (2004) Remote ENSO influence on Mediterranean sky conditions during late summer and autumn: evidence for a slowly evolving atmospheric bridge. QJR Meteorol Soc 130: 2409-2422.
40. Peng S, Whitaker JS (1999) Mechanisms determining the atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies. J Clim 12: 1393-1408.
41. Pozo-Vázquez D, Gámiz-Fortis SR, Tovar-Pescador J, Esteban-Parra MJ, Castro-Díez Y (2005) El Niño-southern oscillation events and associated European winter precipitation anomalies. Int J Climatol 25: 17-31. doi 10. 1002/joc. 1097.
42. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of SST, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108: 4407. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002670.
43. Rimbu N, Treut HL, Janicot S, Boroneant C, Laurent C (2001) Decadal precipitation variability over Europe and its relation with surface atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature. QJR Meteorol Soc 127: 315-329. doi 10. 1002/qj. 49712757204.
44. Rodó X, Baert E, Comin FA (1997) Variations in seasonal rainfall in southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Clim Dyn 13: 275-284.
45. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115: 1606-1626.
46. Shaman J, Tziperman E (2011) An atmospheric teleconnection linking ENSO and southwestern European precipitation. J Clim 24: 124-139. doi 10. 1175/2010JCLI3590. 1.
47. Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2004) Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). J Clim 17: 2466-2477.
48. Su H, Neelin JD, Meyerson JE (2003) Sensitivity of tropical tropospheric temperature to sea surface temperature forcing. J Clim 16: 1283-1301.
49. Su H, Neelin JD, Meyerson JE (2005) Mechanisms for lagged atmospheric response to ENSO SST forcing. J Clim 18: 4195-4215.
50. Ting M, Peng S (1995) Dynamics of early and middle winter atmospheric responses to northwest Atlantic SST anomalies. J Clim 8: 2239-2254.
51. Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N-C, Ropelewski C (1998) Progress during TOGA in understanding and modelling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J Geophys Res 103: 14291-14324.
52. van Loon H, Madden RA (1981) The southern oscillation. Part I: Global associations with pressure and temperature in northern winter. Mon Weather Rev 109: 1150-1162.
53. van Oldenborgh GJ, Burgers G, Klein Tank A (2000) On the El-Niño teleconnection to spring precipitation in Europe. Int J Climatol 20: 565-574.
54. Wang C (2002) Atlantic climate variability and its associated atmospheric circulation cells. J Clim 15: 1516-1536.
55. Wen N, Liu ZY, Liu QY (2010) Observed atmospheric responses to global SST variability modes: a unified assessment using GEFA. J Clim 23: 1739-1759.
56. Zanchettin D, Franks SW, Traverso P, Tomasino M (2008) On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO index. Int J Climatol 28: 995-1006. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1601.