Ocean surface impacts on the seasonal-mean precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 10, 2012, Pages 3566-3582

  Chen, Mingyue ^a   Wang, Wanqiu ^a   Kumar, Arun ^a   Wang, Hui ^a,b   Jha, Bhaskar ^a,b  

^a CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^b Wyle Information Systems   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate prediction; Climate variability; Interannual variability; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal variability; Tropical variabilty

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SEASONAL VARIABILITY; TROPICAL VARIABILTY;

CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; OCEANOGRAPHY; TROPICS;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECASTING METHOD; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL); PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EAST);

EID: 84861385651     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00318.1     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Alexander, M. A., I. Bladé, M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N.-C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15, 2205-2231.
2. Annamalai, H., S.-P. Xie, J.-P.McCreary, and R.Murtugudde, 2005: Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J. Climate, 18, 302-319.
3. Arakawa, O., and A. Kitoh, 2004: Comparison of local precipitation- SST relationship between the observation and a reanalysis dataset. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12206, doi:10.1029/2004GL020283.
4. Barnett, T. P., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Ji, and A. Kumar, 1997: Potential predictability and AMIP implications of midlatitude climate variability in two general circulation models. J. Climate, 10, 2321-2329.
5. Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, and L. Ferranti, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
6. Chen, M., W. Wang, and A. Kumar, 2010: Prediction of monthlymean temperature: The role of atmospheric and land initial conditions and sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 23, 717-725.
7. Janowiak, J. E., and P. Xie, 1999: CAMS-OPI: A global satelliterain gauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications. J. Climate, 12, 3335-3342.
8. Jin, E. K., and J. L. Kinter III, 2009: Characteristics of tropical Pacific SST predictability in coupled GCM forecasts using the NCEP CFS. Climate Dyn., 32, 675-691, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0418-2.
9. Kang, I.-S., and Coauthors, 2002: Intercomparison of atmospheric GCMsimulated anomalies associated with the 1997/98 El Niño. J. Climate, 15, 2791-2805.
10. Klein, S. A., B. J. Sode, and N.-C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate, 12, 917-932.
11. Krishna Kumar, K., M. Hoerling, and B. Rajagopalan, 2005: Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L08704, doi:10.1029/2004GL021979.
12. Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 1998: Specification of regional sea surface temperatures in atmospheric general circulation model simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 8901-8907.
13. Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 2003: The nature and causes for delayed atmospheric response to El Niño. J. Climate, 16, 1391-1403.
14. Kumar, A., S. D. Schubert, and M. S. Suarez, 2003: Variability and predictability of 200-mb seasonal mean heights during summer and winter. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4169, doi:10.1029/2002JD002728.
15. Kumar, A., B. Jha, Q. Zhang, and L. Bounoua, 2007:Anew methodology for estimating the unpredictable component of seasonal atmospheric variability. J. Climate, 20, 3888-3901.
16. Kumar, A., M. Chen, and W. Wang, 2011: An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability. Climate Dyn., 37, 1119-1131, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0901-4.
17. Lau, N.-C., andM. J. Nath, 2000: Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J. Climate, 13, 4287-4309.
18. Lau, N.-C., andM. J. Nath, 2003: Atmosphere-ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J. Climate, 16, 3-20.
19. Livezey, R. E., M. Masutani, and M. Ji, 1996: SST-forced seasonal simulation and prediction skill for versions of the NCEP/MRF model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 507-517.
20. Luo, J.-J., S.Masson, A. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2007: Experimental forecast of the Indian Ocean dipole using a coupled OAGCM. J. Climate, 20, 2178-2190.
21. Luo, J.-J., S. Behera, Y. Masumoto, H. Sakuma, and T. Yamagata, 2008: Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007. Geophys. Res, Lett., 35, L14S02, doi:10.1029/2007GL032793.
22. Luo, J.-J., R. Zhang, S. K. Behera, Y. Masumoto, F.-F. Jin, R. Lukas, and T. Yamagata, 2010: Interaction between El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean dipole. J. Climate, 23, 726-742.
23. Nigam, S., and H.-S. Shen, 1993: Structure of oceanic and atmospheric low-frequency variability over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean. Part I: COADS observations. J. Climate, 6, 657-676.
24. Pacanowski, R. C., and S. M. Griffies, 1998: MOM 3.0 manual. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Rep., 668 pp.
25. Peng, P., and A. Kumar, 2005: A large ensemble analysis of the influence of tropical SSTs on seasonal atmospheric variability. J. Climate, 18, 1068-1085.
26. Peng, P., and A. Kumar, andW.Wang, 2009: An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupledmodel forecasts. ClimateDyn., 36, 637-648, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0711-8.
27. Reynolds, W. R., N. A. Rayner, T. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
28. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
29. Saji, N.H., B.N.Goswami, P. N.Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360-363.
30. Saji, N.H., T. Ambrizzi, and S. E. T. Ferraz, 2005: Indian Ocean dipole mode events and austral surface air temperature anomalies. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 39, 87-101, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2004.10.015.
31. Saji, N.H., S.-P. Xie, T. Yamagata, 2006: Tropical Indian Ocean variability in the IPCC twentieth-century climate simulations. J. Climate, 19, 4397-4417.
32. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suare, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2008: Potential predictability of long-term drought and pluvial conditions in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 21, 802-816.
33. Shukla, J., and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1613-1630.
34. Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea, 2005: Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022760.
35. van den Dool, H. M., P. Peng, A. Johansson, M. Chelliah, A. Shabbar, and S. Saha, 2006: Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of North American climate-The Atlantic influence. J. Climate, 19, 6005-6024.
36. Wang, B., R. Wu, and K. M. Lau, 2001: Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Contrasts between the Indian and the western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons. J. Climate, 14, 4073-4090.
37. Wang, B., I.-S. Kang, and J.-Y. Li, 2004: Ensemble simulation of Asian- Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J. Climate, 17, 803-818.
38. Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla, and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi:10.1029/2005GL022734.
39. Wang, W., S. Saha, H.-L. Pan, S. Nadiga, and G. White, 2005: Simulation of ENSO in the new NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFS03). Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1574-1593.
40. Wang, W., M. Chen, and A. Kumar, 2010: An assessment of the CFS real-time seasonal forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 950-969.
41. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magana, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 451-14 510.
42. Webster, P. J., A.M. Moor, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature, 401, 356-360.
43. Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 17, 3037-3054.
44. Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air-sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Climate Dyn., 25, 155-170.
45. Wu, R., and S.-W. Yeh, 2010: A further study of the tropical Indian Ocean asymmetric mode in boreal spring. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D08101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012999.
46. Wu, R., B. P. Kirtman, and K. Pegion, 2006: Local air-sea relationship in observations and model simulations. J. Climate, 19, 4914-4932.
47. Wu, R., B. P. Kirtman, and V. Krishnamurthy, 2008: An asymmetric mode of tropical Indian Ocean rainfall variability in boreal spring. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05104, doi:10.1029/2007JD009316.
48. Yu, J.-Y., C. R. Mechoso, J. C. McWilliams, and A. Arakawa, 2002: Impacts of Indian Ocean on ENSO cycles. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1204, doi:10.1029/2001GL014098.
49. Zhang, C., 1993: Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperature in the tropics. J. Climate, 6, 1898-1913.