The effects of extended unemployment insurance over the business cycle: Evidence from regression discontinuity estimates over 20 years

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Volumn 127, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 701-752

  Schmieder, Johannes F ^a,b   von wachter, Till ^b,c   Bender, Stefan ^d  

^a BOSTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Bonn and IAB   (Germany)

^c Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

^d Bundesagentur fur Arbeit   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS CYCLE; INSURANCE SYSTEM; MORALITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; UNEMPLOYMENT;

GERMANY;

EID: 84860442671     PISSN: 00335533     EISSN: 15314650     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjs010     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Andersen, Torben M., and Michael Svarer, "State Dependent Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Risk and Insurance, 78 (2010), 325-344.
2. Angrist, Joshua D., and Guido W. Imbens, "Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation of Average Causal Effects in Models with Variable Treatment Intensity," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90 (1995), 431-442.
3. Arntz, Melanie, Simon Lo, and Ralf A. Wilke, "Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers, 07-049, 2007.
4. Baily, Martin N., "Some Aspects of Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Public Economics, 10 (1978), 379-402.
5. Browning, Martin, and Thomas F. Crossley, "Unemployment Insurance Benefit Levels and Consumption Changes," Journal of Public Economics, 80 (2001), 1-23.
6. Caliendo, Marco, Konstantinos Tatsiramos, and Arne Uhlendorff, "Benefit Duration, Unemployment Duration and Job Match Quality: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," IZA Discussion Paper 4670, 2009
7. Card, David, and Phillip B. Levine, "Extended Benefits and the Duration of UI Spells: Evidence from the New Jersey Extended Benefit Program," Journal of Public Economics, 78 (2000), 107-138.
8. Card, David, Raj, Chetty, and Andrea, Weber, "Cash-on-Hand and Competing Models of Intertemporal Behavior: New Evidence from the Labor Market," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122 (2007a), 1511-1560
9. Card, David, Raj, Chetty, and Andrea, Weber, "The Spike at Benefit Exhaustion: Leaving the Unemployment System or Starting a New Job?," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 97 (2007b), 113-118
10. Chetty, Raj, "Moral Gazard versus Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, 116 (2008), 173-234
11. Congressional Budget Office, "Family Income of Unemployment Insurance Recipients," Policy Brief, March (2004)
12. Corson, Walter, and Walter, Nicholson, The Federal Supplemental Benefits Program: An Appraisal of Emergency Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits (Kalamazoo, MI: Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1982)
13. Fitzenberger, Bernd, and Ralf A. Wilke, "Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s," German Economic Review, 11 (2010), 336-366.
14. Gruber, Jonathan, "The Consumption Smoothing Benefits of Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, 87 (1997), 192-205
15. Hopenhayn, Hugo A., and Juan P. Nicolini, "Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, 105 (1997), 412-438.
16. Hunt, Jennifer, "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, 13 (1995), 88-120
17. Jurajda, Štepán, and Frederick J. Tannery, "Unemployment Durations and Extended Unemployment Benefits in Local Labor Markets," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 56 (2003), 324-348.
18. Katz, Lawrence, and Bruce D. Meyer, "The Impact of Potential Duration of Unemployment Benefits on the Duration of Unemployment Outcomes," Journal of Public Economics (1990), 45-71.
19. Kiley, Michael T., "How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?," B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 1 (2003).
20. Kroft, Kory, and Matt J. Notowidigdo, "Should Unemployment Insurance Vary with the Local Unemployment Rate? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Paper 17173, 2011.
21. Krueger, Alan B., and Bruce D. Meyer, "Labor Supply Effects of Social Insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, 4 (2002), 2327-2392.
22. Lalive, Rafael, "How Do Extended Benefits Affect Unemployment Duration? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Journal of Econometrics, 142 (2008), 785-806
23. Landais, Camille, Pascal Michaillat, and Emmanuel Saez, "Optimal Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Paper 16526, 2010
24. Lee, David S., and David Card, "Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error," Journal of Econometrics, 142 (2008), 655-674.
25. Lee, David S., and Thomas Lemieux, "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, 48 (2010), 281-355.
26. Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent, "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, 106 (1998), 514-550.
27. Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent, "Two Questions about European Unemployment," Econometrica, 76 (2008), 1-29.
28. McCrary, Justin, "Manipulationof the Running Variableinthe Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test, "Journal of Econometrics, 142 (2008), 698-714
29. Meyer, Bruce D., "Unemployment Duration and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, 58 (1990), 757-782.
30. Ljungqvist, Lars, and Thomas J. Sargent, "Unemployment and Workers Compensation Programmes: Rationale, Design, Labour Supply and Income Support," Fiscal Studies, 23 (2002), 1-49.
31. Moffitt, Robert, "Unemployment Insurance andthe Distribution of Unemployment Spells," Journal of Econometrics, 28 (1985), 85-101
32. Needels, Karen, and Walter Nicholson, "Extended Unemployment Benefits: A Review of the Literature," Amherst College, Mimeo, 2004
33. Pavoni, Nicola, "On Optimal Unemployment Compensation," Journal of Monetary Economics, 54 (2007), 1612-1630
34. Rothstein, Jesse, "Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great Recession," Mimeo, University of California, Berkeley, 2011
35. Sanchez, Juan M., "Optimal State-Contingent Unemployment Insurance," Economics Letters, 98 (2008), 348-357.
36. Schmieder, Johannes F., Till, von Wachter, and Stefan, Bender, "The Long-Term Impact of Job Displacement in Germany during the 1982 Recession on Earnings, Income, and Employment," Columbia University, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series, DP0910-07, 2009.
37. Shimer, Robert, and Ivan, Werning, "Reservation Wages and Unemployment Insurance," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122 (2007), 1145-1185
38. Solon, Gary, "Labor Supply Effects of Extended Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Human Resources, 14 (1979), 247-255
39. von Wachter, Till, Jae, Song, and Joyce, Manchester, "Long-Term Earnings Losses due to Mass-Layoffs during the 1982 Recession: An Analysis Using Longitudinal Administrative Data from 1974 to 2004," Columbia University, Mimeo, 2012
40. Wilke, Ralf A., "New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West Germany," Journal of Applied Social Science Studies, 128 (2005), 207-237.