From financial crash to debt crisis

American Economic Review

Volumn 101, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 1676-1706

  Reinhart, Carmen M ^a   Rogoff, Kenneth S ^b  

^a PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS   (United States)

^b HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84860389009     PISSN: 00028282     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.5.1676     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Aguiar, Mark, and Gita Gopinath. 2006. "Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account." Journal of International Economics, 69(1): 64-83.
2. Alesina, Alberto, and Guido Tabellini. 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt." Review of Economic Studies, 57(3): 403-14.
3. Amador, Manuel. 2003. "A Political Economy Model of Sovereign Debt Repayment." http://www. stanford.com/~amador/debt.pdf.
4. Amador, Manuel. 2008. "Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons." http://www.stanford. com/~amador/tragedy.pdf.
5. Arellano, Cristina, and Narayana R. Kocherlakota. 2008. "Internal Debt Crises and Sovereign Defaults." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 13794.
6. Bordo, Michael, and Barry Eichengreen. 1999. "Is Our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?" Paper presented at the Reserve Bank of Australia Conference on Private Capital, Sydney, Australia.
7. Bordo, Michael D., Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel, Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria. 2001. "Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?" Economic Policy: A European Forum, 32: 51-75.
8. Bulow, Jeremy, and Kenneth Rogoff. 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt." Journal of Political Economy, 97(1): 155-78.
9. Cagan, Philip. 1956. "The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation." In Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. Milton Friedman, 25-117. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
10. Calvo, Guillermo A. 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations." American Economic Review, 78(4): 647-61.
11. Calvo, Guillermo A., Alejandro Izquierdo, and Rudy Loo-Kung. 2006. "Relative Price Volatility under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects." Journal of International Economics, 69(1): 231-54.
12. Camerer, Colin, and Dan Lovallo. 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach." American Economic Review, 89(1): 306-18.
13. Caprio, Gerard, and Daniela Klingebiel. 2003. "Episodes of Systemic and Borderline Financial Crises." http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ INTRES/Resources/469232-1107449512766/648083- 1108140788422/23456-Table-on- systemic-and-non-systemic-banking-crises-January-21-2003.pdf.
14. Caprio, Gerard, Daniela Klingebiel, Luc Laeven, and Guillermo Noguera. 2005. "Banking Crisis Database." In Systemic Financial Crises: Containment and Resolution, ed. Patrick Honohan and Luc Laeven, 307-40. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
15. Diamond, Douglas W., and Philip H. Dybvig. 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity." Journal of Political Economy, 91(3): 401-19.
16. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos. 1985. "Good-Bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash." Journal of Development Economics, 19(1-2): 1-24.
17. Eichengreen, Barry. 1992. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939. New York: Oxford University Press.
18. Eichengreen, Barry, and Peter H. Lindert, ed. 1989. The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
19. Eitrheim, ø., K. Gerdrup, and J. T. Klovland. 2004. "Credit, Banking and Monetary Developments in Norway 1819-2003." In Historical Monetary Statistics for Norway, 1819-2003, 377-407. Oslo, Norway: Norges Bank.
20. Flandreau, Marc, and Frederic Zumer. 2004. The Making of Global Finance 1880-1913. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
21. Fostel, Ana, and John Geanakoplos. 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy." American Economic Review, 98(4): 1211-44.
22. Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Andrew K. Rose. 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment." Journal of International Economics, 41(3-4): 351-66. (Pubitemid 126395239)
23. Friedman, Milton, and Anna Jacobson Schwartz. 1963. A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
24. He, Zhiguo, and Wei Xiong. 2011. "Dynamic Debt Runs." University of Chicago and Princeton University. http://www.princeton.edu/ ~wxiong/papers/dynamic.pdf.
25. Jeanne, Olivier. 2009. "Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture." American Economic Review, 99(5): 2135-48.
26. Kahneman, Daniel, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky. 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
27. Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Carmen M. Reinhart. 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems." American Economic Review, 89(3): 473-500.
28. Kindleberger, Charles P. 1989. Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. 2nd ed. New York: Basic Books.
29. Kletzer, Kenneth M. 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk." Economic Journal, 94(374): 287-307.
30. Laibson, David. 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2): 443-77.
31. Lindert, Peter H., and Peter J. Morton. 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked." In Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance Volume 1 the International Financial System, ed. J. D. Sachs, 39-106. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
32. Macdonald, James. 2006. A Free Nation Deep in Debt: The Financial Roots of Democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
33. Morris, Stephen, and Hyun Song Shin. 2001. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modeling." In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, ed. Ben S. Bernanke and Kenneth Rogoff, 139-61. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
34. Obstfeld, Maurice. 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises." Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires, 43: 189-213.
35. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. 1996. Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
36. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Alan Taylor. 2003. Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37. Papke, Leslie E., and Jeffrey M. Wooldridge. 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates." Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6): 619-32.
38. Persson, Torsten, and Lars E. O. Svensson. 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative Would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(2): 325-45.
39. Purcell, John F. H., and Jeffrey A. Kaufman. 1993. "The Risks of Sovereign Lending: Lessons from History." Unpublished.
40. Reinhart, Carmen M. 2010. "This Time Is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15815.
41. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Vincent R. Reinhart. 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present." In NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2008, ed. Jeffrey Frankel and Christopher Pissarides, 1-54. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
42. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 1-48. (Pubitemid 38361200)
43. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2008. "This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 13882.
44. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2009a. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
45. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2009b. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises." American Economic Review, 99(2): 466-72.
46. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt." American Economic Review, 100(2): 573-78.
47. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis: Dataset." American Economic Review. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.1676.
48. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt." Economic Journal, 121(552): 319-50.
49. Reinhart, Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel A. Savastano. 2003. "Debt Intolerance." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-62.
50. Rodrik, Dani, and Andres Velasco. 2000. "Short-Term Capital Flows." In Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, 1999, ed. B. Pleskovic and J. E. Stiglitz, 59-90. Washington, DC: World Bank.
51. Sachs, Jeffrey. 1984. Theoretical Issues in International Borrowing. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.
52. Schularick, Moritz, and Alan M. Taylor. 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15512.
53. Stone, Irving. 1999. The Global Export of Capital from Great Britain, 1865-1914: A Statistical Survey. New York: St. Martin's Press.
54. Suter, Christian. 1992. Debt Cycles in the World-Economy: Foreign Loans, Financial Crises, and Debt Settlements, 1820-1990. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
55. Tomz, Michael. 2007. Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt across Three Centuries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
56. Velasco, Andres. 1987. "Financial Crises and Balance of Payments Crises: A Simple Model of the Southern Cone Experience." Journal of Development Economics, 27(1-2): 263-83.
57. Winkler, Max. 1933. Foreign Bonds: An Autopsy. Philadelphia: Roland Sway Co.
58. Wynne, William H. 1951. State Insolvency and Foreign Bondholders: Selected Case Histories of Governmental Foreign Bond Defaults and Debt Readjustments. Vol. II. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.