Economic growth, regime insecurity, and military strategy: Explaining the rise of noncombat operations in China

Asian Security

Volumn 7, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 177-200

  Fravel, M Taylor ^a  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84859337027     PISSN: 14799855     EISSN: 15552764     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2011.615080     Document Type: Article

References (148)

1. A complete and literal translation of the Chinese is 'non war military operations.' China's armed forces have three components: the PLA, the People's Armed Police (PAP), and the militia. In this article, I focus on the PLA and PAP. The PLA's principal mission is external defense, but as argued in this article, it also plays an important role in domestic non combat operations, especially disaster relief. The PAP is a paramilitary force whose principal mission is maintaining public order. On these distinctions.
2. Dennis Blasko, The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century (New York: Routledge, 2006), pp. 18-19.
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7. Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998).
8. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2010 (Department of Defense, 2010), p. 45.
9. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968).
10. Jiang Zemin, Jiang Zemin Wenxuan Jiang Zemin's Selected Works, Vol. 1 (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, 2006), pp. 278-294.
11. M. Taylor Fravel, "China's Search for Military Power," The Washington Quarterly Vol. 31, No. 3 (2008), pp. 125-141.
12. Nazli Choucri and Robert Carver North, Nations in Conflict: National Growth and International Violence (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1975);
13. Dale C. Copeland, Origins of Major War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000);
14. Gilpin, War and Change Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, eds., Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996);
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16. A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980).
17. Michael Chase and Kristen Gunness, "The PLA's Multiple Military Tasks: Prioritizing Combat Operations and Developing MOOTW Capabilities," China Brief Vol. 10, No. 2 (2010), pp. 5-7;
18. Jonathan Holsag, "Embracing Chinese Global Security Ambitions," The Washington Quarterly Vol. 32, No. 3 (2009), pp. 105-118
19. Kim Nodskov, The Long March of Power: The New Historic Missions of the People's Liberation Army (Copenhagen: Royal Danish Defence College Publishing House, 2009);
20. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2010, p. 19;
21. Cynthia Watson, "The Chinese Armed Forces and Nontraditional Missions: A Growing Tool of Statecraft," China Brief Vol. 9, No. 4 (2009), pp. 9-12.
22. Steven R. David, "Explaining Third World Alignment," World Politics Vol. 43, No. 2 (January 1991), pp. 233-256.
23. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies.
24. World Bank, "World Development Indicators." Available at http://databank.worldbank.org
25. "China's 'Floating Population' Exceeds 221 Million," Xinhua, February 27, 2011.
26. "Unemployment in China," China Labor Bulletin, 2007. Available at http://www.clb.org.hk/en/node/100060
27. State Council Information Office, China's Human Resources (Beijing: State Council Information Office, 2010). According to the white paper, China's labor force consists of 1.06 billion people, of which 780 million are employed (jiuye).
28. Chen Jia, "Country's Wealth Divide Past Warning Level," China Daily, May 12, 2010
29. Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transition and Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007), p. 217.
30. Victor Shih, "China's 8,000 Credit Risks," Asian Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2010.
31. For a more detailed account of social instability in China
32. Joseph Fewsmith, Social Order in the Wake of Economic Crisis," China Leadership Monitor No. 28 (2009), pp. 1-13.
33. "Hu Jintao zai shengbuji lingdao ganbu zhuanti yantaoban kaibanshi shang jianghua [Hu Jintao's Speech at the Opening of a Special Study and Discussion Session for Provincial and Ministerial Leading Cadres]," Xinhua, February 19, 2011.
34. Zong zhengzhi bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben [A Reader for Establishing and Implementing the Theory of Scientific Development ] (Beijing: Jiefangjun chubanshe, 2006).
35. For two overviews of the PLA's new historic mission concept
36. Daniel M. Hartnett, The PLA's Domestic and Foreign Activities and Orientation (Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington, DC, 2009);
37. James Mulvenon, "Chairman Hu and the PLA's 'New Historic Missions,'" China Leadership Monitor No. 27 (Winter 2009), pp. 1-20.
38. Unlike Hartnett and Mulvenon, I translate 'shiming' (Chinese source) as 'mission' as in 'purpose,' and not 'missions' as in specific military tasks or objectives, which is the common usage in the US military. In other words, the party has identified a new purpose for the army of historical importance. Hu Jintao makes clear that there is one mission that requires the 'correct grasp' of four tasks. English-language PLA publications such as the Jiefangjun Bao also translate 'lishi shiming' as 'historic mission.'
39. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, pp. 76-83.
40. Bates Gill and James Mulvenon, "Chinese Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions," The China Quarterly No. 171 (2002), pp. 617-624.
41. Fan Zhenjiang and Ma Baoan, eds., Junshi zhanlue lun [On Military Strategy] (Beijing: Guofang daxue chubanshe, 2007);
42. Peng Guangqian and Yao Youzhi, eds., Zhanlue xue [The Science of Military Strategy] (Beijing: Junshi kexue chubanshe, 2001);
43. Wang Wenrong, ed., Zhanlue xue [The Science of Military Strategy] (Beijing: Guofang daxue chubanshe, 1999).
44. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 80.
45. Hartnett identified this and another online reference to Hu's speech, which has not been openly published
46. Hu Jintao, "Renqing xinshiji xinjieduan wojun lishi shiming [Recognize Our Army's Historic Mission in the New Phase of the New Century]," December 24, 2004. Available at http://gfjy.jiangxi.gov.cn/yi1.asp?id=11349.htm
47. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 76.
48. Fan Yuejiang, "Lun jingji quanqiuhua dui woguo junshi anquan de yingxiang [On The Impact of Economic Globalization on China's Military Security"], Junshi jingji xueyuan xuebao No. 3 (2003), pp. 40-43;
49. Liu Xingliang, "Xin anquanguan dui xinshiji guoji anquan de yingxiang [Impact of the New Security Concept on International Security in the New Century]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 1 (2004), pp. 90-96.
50. Li Jijun, "Quanqiuhua shidai de Zhongguo guojia anquan sikao [Reflections on China's National Security in the Era of Globalization]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 2 (2004), pp. 38-43.
51. Huang Zaisheng and Zhang Kenan, "Jingji quanqiuhua beijing xia guojia liyi yu woguo anquan zhanlue xuanze [National Interests against the Backdrop of Economic Globalization and Our Country's Security Strategy Choice]," Junshi jingji yanjiu No. 6 (2008), p. 7.
52. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 77.
53. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 197.
54. Zheng Weiping and Liu Mingfu, eds., Jundui xin de lishi shiming lun [On the Military's New Historic Mission] (Beijing: Renmin wuzhuang chubanshe, 2005), pp. 118-125.
55. Jiefangjun bao bianjibu, "Lun xinshiji xinjieduan wojun de lishi shiming [On Our Army's Historic Mission the New Period of the New Century]," Jiefangjun bao, January 9, 2006, p. 5.
56. Mi Aini, "Weilai 10 nian quntixing shijian cheng zhizheng zuida tiaozhan [Mass Incidents Will Be the Greatest Challenge to Governance over the Next Ten Years]," Liaowang dongfang zhoukan No. 4 (2010), pp. 30-31;
57. Murray Scot Tanner, "China Rethinks Unrest," The Washington Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 3 (2004), pp. 137-156.
58. The figure for 2009 is calculated based on information in Mi (2010).
59. Chen Yong, "Quanqiuhua beijing xia de jundui lishi shiming [The Military's Historic Mission under the Background of Globalization]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 1 (2006), pp. 15-27.
60. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/#summary
61. "President Hu Calls for 'Mighty' Support from Armed Forces for National Interests, Social Stability," Xinhua, March 11, 2009.
62. http://www.npc.gov.cn/huiyi/dbdh/11_3/2010-03/15/content_1563950.htm
63. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 78.
64. Jiefangjun bao bianjibu, "Lun xinshiji xinjieduan wojun de lishi shiming," p. 1.
65. Liu Xiaoli, ed., Jundui yingfu zhongda tufa shijian he weiji feizhangzheng junshi xingdong yanjiu [A Study of Nonwar Military Operations by the Armed Forces to Deal with Major Sudden Incidents or Crises] (Beijing: Guofang daxue chubanshe, 2009).
66. Jiefangjun bao bianjibu, "Lun xinshiji xinjieduan wojun de lishi shiming," p. 5.
67. Zong zhengzhi bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 80.
68. Jiefangjun bao bianjibu, "Lun xinshiji xinjieduan wojun de lishi shiming," p. 5.
69. Jiefangjun bao bianjibu, "Lun xinshiji xinjieduan wojun de lishi shiming," p. 5.
70. Chen Yong, "Quanqiuhua beijing xia de jundui lishi shiming," p. 20.
71. Sun Huangtian, "Guoji jingrong weiji dui wojun caijing gongzuo de yingxiang yu duice [The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on Our Army's Financial Work and Related Coutermeasures]," Junshi jingji yanjiu No. 2 (2009), pp. 5-8.
72. Bao Bin and Wang Guifang, "Tigao duifu feichuantong anquan weixie nengli: Quanjun feichuantong anquan lilun yantao hui shuyao [Raise the Capability to Deal with Nontraditional Security Threats: Summary of an Army-wide Symposium on Nontraditional Security Theory]," Jiefangjun bao, November 16, 2006, p. 12.
73. Ling Shengyin and Hua Ren, "Jingji quanqiuhua tiaojian xia jiaqiang jundui jianshe de sikao [Thoughts on Military Building in the Age of Globalization]," Junshi jingji xueyuan xuebao No. 12 (2005), pp. 20-23.
74. Shi Hongtao, "Zhongguo nengyuan anquan zaoyu 'maliujia kunju' [China's Energy Security Encounters the 'Malacca Predicament']," Zhongguo qingnian bao, 15 June 2004.
75. Liu Xiaoli, ed., Jundui yingfu zhongda tufa shijian he weiji feizhangzheng junshi xingdong yanjiu, p. 44.
76. Ling Shengyin and Hua Ren, "Jingji quanqiuhua tiaojian xia jiaqiang jundui jianshe de sikao," pp. 20-23.
77. Wang Guifang, "Guoji liyi yu Zhongguo anquan zhanlue xuanze [National Interests and Choosing China's Security Strategy]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 1 (2006), p. 79.
78. Li Jijun, "Quanqiuhua shidai de Zhongguo guojia anquan sikao," pp. 38-43.
79. Zong zhengzhi bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 79.
80. Zong zhengzhi bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 80.
81. Wang Shumei, Shi Jiazhu, and Xu Mingshan, "Luxing jundui lishi shiming, shuli kexue haiquanguan [Establish the Scientific Maritime Rights Concept Fulfill the Military'sHistoricMission]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 2 (2007), pp. 139-146;
82. Zhang Wei, "Guojia haishang anquan lilun [Discussion of National Maritime Security Theory]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 1 (2007), pp. 84-91;
83. Zheng Weiping and Liu Mingfu, eds., Jundui xin de lishi shiming lun, pp. 139-151.
84. Wang Shumei, Shi Jiazhu, and Xu Mingshan, "Luxing jundui lishi shiming, shuli kexue haiquanguan," pp. 139-146;
85. Zhang Wei, "Guojia haishang anquan lilun," pp. 84-91.
86. Barry Posen, "Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of US Hegemony," Intenational Security Vol. 28, No. 1 (Summer 2003), pp. 5-46.
87. Zheng Weiping and Liu Mingfu, eds., Jundui xin de lishi shiming lun, pp. 152-171;
88. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 80.
89. Zheng Weiping and Liu Mingfu, eds., Jundui xin de lishi shiming lun, pp. 172-189.
90. Chen Yong, "Quanqiuhua beijing xia de jundui lishi shiming," pp. 15-27;
91. Wang Shumei, Shi Jiazhu, and Xu Mingshan, "Luxing jundui lishi shiming, shuli kexue haiquanguan";
92. Zhang Wei, "Guojia haishang anquan lilun."
93. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 85.
94. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 196.
95. On discussion of the costs of conflict by Chinese military strategists
96. Peng Guangqian and Yao Youzhi, eds., Zhanlue xue, pp. 423-425.
97. On the concept of strategic deterrence
98. Peng Guangqian and Yao Youzhi, eds., Zhanlue xue, p. 241.
99. For a discussion of this concept
100. Dennis J. Blasko, "Military Parades Demonstrate Chinese Concept of Deterrence," China Brief Vol. 9, No. 8 (April 16, 2009), pp. 7-10.
101. The Chinese definition of non war military operations includes some operations that would be classified as combat operations, such as sea lane security.
102. Tan Wenhu, "Duoyanghua junshi renwu qianyin junshi xunlian chuangxin [Diversified Military Tasks Draw Innovations in Military Training]," Jiefangjun bao, July 1, 2008, p. 12.
103. Xiao Tianliang, Junshi liliang de feizhanzheng yunyong [The Nonwar Use of Military Power] (Beijing: Guofang daxue chubanshe, 2009), p. 192.
104. State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2008 (Beijing: State Council Information Office, 2009), p. 56.
105. Dennis J. Blasko, "US and Chinese Approaches to Peacekeeping and Stability Operations," paper presented at Naval War College conference on Chinese and American Approaches to Nontraditional Security Challenges: Implications for the Maritime Domain, Newport, RI, May 4-5, 2010.
106. State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2006 (Beijing: State Council Information Office, 2006);
107. State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2008
108. State Council In formation Office, China's National Defense in 2010 (Beijing: StateCouncil InformationOffice, 2011).
109. The 2004 white paper notes that 230,000 PAP soldiers were deployed in such operations but does not mention the number of PLA soldiers.
110. State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2008, p. 71.
111. State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2010.
112. Xiao Tianliang, Junshi liliang de feizhanzheng yunyong, pp. 193-195.
113. Relief Web's database, available at http://reliefweb.int
114. This figure assumes that each of the seven flotillas includes roughly 880 sailors and marines.
115. Chen Yong, "Quanqiuhua beijing xia de jundui lishi shiming"
116. Liu Xingliang, "Xin anquanguan dui xinshiji guoji anquan de yingxiang";
117. Wang Guifang, "Guoji liyi yu Zhongguo anquan zhanlue xuanze."
118. China's white papers on national defense, various years.
119. Murray Scott Tanner, "How ChinaManages Internal Security Challenges and Its Impact on PLAMissions," in Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Andrew Scobell, eds., Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other Than Taiwan (Carlisle, PA: ArmyWar College, 2009), pp. 39-98.
120. Liu Xiaoli, ed., Jundui yingfu zhongda tufa shijian he weiji feizhangzheng junshi xingdong yanjiu, p. 142.
121. Zong zhengzhi Bu, Shuli he luoshi kexue fazhanguan lilun xuexi duben, p. 207.
122. Dennis Blasko, "PLA Ground Force Modernization and Mission Diversification: Underway in All Military Regions," in Andrew Scobell and Roy Kamphausen, eds., Right Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military (Carlisle, PA: Army War College, 2007), p. 310;
123. M. Taylor Fravel, "Securing Borders: China's Doctrine and Force Structure for Frontier Defense," Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 30, No. 4-5 (2007), pp. 724, 727.
124. According to the 2006 white paper, the PAP 'is tasked to perform guard duties, handle emergencies, combat terrorism, and participate in and support national economic development. In wartime, it assists the PLA in defensive operations.'
125. Dong Qiang, "Falu baozhang jiuyuan xingdong youxu gaoxiao [Orderly and Efficient Legal Protection for Rescue Operations]," Jiefangjun Bao, April 28, 2010, p. 10.
126. Tanner, "How China Manages Internal Security Challenges and Its Impact on PLA Missions," pp. 39-98.
127. Chen Yong, Xu Guocheng, and Geng Weidong, eds., Gaoji jishu tiaojian xia de lujun zhanyi xue [The Science of Army Campaigns under High Technology Conditions] (Beijing: Junshi kexue chubanshe, 2003), pp. 490-505.
128. Yang Jin, Xu Feng, and Xu Lisheng, eds., Feizhanzheng junshi xingdong gailun [Introduction to Nonwar Military Operations] (Beijing: Junshi yiwen chuban she, 2008), p. 3.
129. Liu Fengan, "Goujian xinxihua tiaojianxia junshi xunlian xin tixi [Establishing a New System for Military Training under Informationized Conditions]," Jiefangjun Bao, August 1, 2008, p. 3.
130. Lu Desheng, "Quanjun weihe gongzuo huiyi zaiJing zhaokai [Army-wide Meeting on Peacekeeping Work Held in Beijing]," Jiefangjun bao, June 26, 2009, p. 1.
131. Tian Yixing, "Wojun chuzhi tufa shijian zhihui gaoxiao kuaiti [Our Army's Speedy Command System for Managing Sudden Incidents]," Jiefangjun Bao, September 23, 2009, p. 5.
132. Yang Zhongxu, "13.7 dajun ruhe bushu [How 137,000 TroopsWere Deployed]," Zhongguo xinwen zhoukan No. 20 (2010), pp. 38-42.
133. Dong Qiang, "Falu baozhang jiuyuan xingdong youxu gaoxiao."
134. Zhu Jiashu and Wang Yaobao, "Wojun jiji canyu qiangxian jiuzai he reda zhuyi jiuyuan [Our Army Actively Participates in Disaster and Relief and Humanitarian Aid]," Jiefangjun Bao, July 31, 2010, p. 4.
135. Xiong Zhengyan and Cao Guochang, "Zhongguo jundui yingji zhuanye liliang yijin 10 wanren [000 Specialized Emergency Forces in the Chinese Military Approaches 100]," Jiefangjun Bao, October 13, 2010, p. 3.
136. Liu Xiaoli, ed., Jundui yingfu zhongda tufa shijian he weiji feizhangzheng junshi xingdong yanjiu, pp. 346-363.
137. On budget numbers, see Ministry of Finance, Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets for 2009 and on the Draft Central and Local Budgets for 2010 (March 5, 2010, Ministry of Finance (China)). For a detailed analysis of related organizational changes, see Blasko, 'US and Chinese Approaches to Peacekeeping and Stability Operations.'
138. State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2010.
139. On the debate in China over carriers
140. Nan Li and Christopher Weuve, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions: An Update," Naval War College Review Vol. 63, No. 1 (Winter 2010), pp. 13-32;
141. Robert S. Ross, "China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the US Response," Intenational Security Vol. 34, No. 2 (Fall 2009), pp. 46-81.
142. Zhang Yuliang, Zhanyi Xue [The Science of Campaigns] (Beijing: Guofang daxue chubanshe, 2006), pp. 539-546.
143. Tang Fuquan, Ye Xinrong, and Wang Daowei, "Zhongguo haiyang weiquan zhanlue chutan [Initial Exploration of the Strategy for Protecting China's Maritime Rights]," Zhongguo junshi kexue No. 6 (2006), p. 66.
144. Liu Xiaoli, ed., Jundui yingfu zhongda tufa shijian he weiji feizhangzheng junshi xingdong yanjiu.
145. Zheng Weiping, Wang Jianwei, and Liu Mingfu, eds., Jundui luoshi kexue fazhanguan [The Military's Implementation of the Scientific Development Concept] (Beijing: Renmin wuzhuang chubanshe, 2005), p. 229.
146. M. Taylor Fravel, "Regime Insecurity and International Cooperation: Explaining China's Compromises in Territorial Disputes," International Security Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 46-83;
147. M. Taylor Fravel, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China's Territorial Disputes (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008).
148. Bonnie S. Glaser, "Ensuring the 'Go Abroad' Policy Serves China's Domestic Priorities," China Brief Vol. 7, No. 5 (2007).