China's naval nationalism: Sources, prospects, and the U.S. response

International Security

Volumn 34, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 46-81

  Ross, Robert S ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 77649094964     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: 15314804     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/isec.2009.34.2.46     Document Type: Article

References (220)

1. A.T. Mahan, The Influence of Seapower upon History, 1660-1783 (New York: Hill and Wang, 1957), p. 25.
2. See also Paul M. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (Atlantic Highlands, N.J.: Ashfield, 1986), pp. 5-9.
3. A.T. Mahan, Retrospect and Prospect: Studies in International Relations (London: Sampson, Low, Marston, 1902)
4. quoted in Colin S. Gray, The Navy in the Post-Cold War World: The Uses and Value of Strategic Seapower (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1994) p. 89.
5. For a discussion of Mahan and the development of U.S. sea power, see Harold Sprout and Margaret Sprout, The Rise of American Naval Power, 1776-1918 (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 1990)
6. Howard K. Beale, Theodore Roosevelt and the Rise of America to World Power (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1956)
7. Ernest R. May, Imperial Democracy: The Emergence of America as a Great Power (New York: Harper, 1973).
8. See also Colin S. Gray, "National Style in Strategy: The American Example," International Security, Vol. 6, No. 2 (Fall 1981), pp. 21-47.
9. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery, p. 19.
10. N.A.M. Rodger, The Command of the Ocean: A Naval History of Britain, 1649-1815 (London: Penguin, 2005), pp. 157-159, 175-177
11. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery, pp. 78-79, 84-85.
12. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery, pp. 130-131.
13. On the jeune école, see Arne Røksund, The Jeune Ecole: The Strategy of the Weak (Boston: Brill, 2007)
14. Lawrence Sondhaus, Naval Warfare, 1815-1914 (New York: Routledge, 2001), pp. 68, 89-90, 125
15. David H. Olivier, German Naval Strategy, 1856-1888: Forerunners of Tirpitz (New York: Frank Cass, 2004), pp. 84-85, 100, 115, 186-188
16. Clay Blair, Hitler's U-Boat War: The Hunters, 1939-1942 (New York: Random House, 2000), pp. 31, 39, 45-47, 97-98, 163-175, 158-205
17. Richard Overy, Why the Allies Won (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), pp. 31-32, 314-325.
18. See the 1983 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in John B. Hattendorf Jr., "The Evolution of the U.S. Maritime Strategy, 1977-1986," Newport Paper, No. 19 (Newport, R.I.: Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College, 2004), pp. 101-183.
19. See also Jürgen Rohwer and Mikhail S. Monakov, Stalin's Ocean-Going Fleet: Soviet Naval Strategy and Shipbuilding Programmes, 1935-1953 (Portland, Ore.: Frank Cass, 2001), pp. 185-188, 201, 216-217
20. Vadim Kolnogorov, "To Be or Not to Be: The Development of Soviet Deck Aviation," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2 (April 2005), p. 341
21. Sergei Chernyavskii, "The Era of Gorshkov: Triumph and Contradictions," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2 (April 2005), pp. 294-295.
22. On Soviet submarines, see Barry M. Blechman, The Changing Soviet Navy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1973), pp. 24-31, 42.
23. Prestige strategies as a source of war are discussed in Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1 (Summer 1995), pp. 33-34.
24. See A.B. Rodger, The War of the Second Coalition, 1798 to 1801: A Strategic Commentary (Oxford: Clarendon, 1964), pp. 18-21
25. Rodger, The Command of the Ocean, pp. 457-459.
26. C.I. Hamilton, Anglo-French Naval Rivalry, 1840-1870 (Oxford: Clarendon, 1993), pp. 88-89, 268-270
27. Theodore Ropp, The Development of a Modern Navy (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 1987), pp. 6-7, 10, 142-146, 166, 205-210, 213-214, 246-251, 263
28. Sondhaus, Naval Warfare, pp. 55, 141-144.
29. Paul M. Kennedy, The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914 (London: Ashfield, 1987), pp. 418-419.
30. Rolf Hobson, Imperialism at Sea: Naval Strategic Thought, the Ideology of Sea Power, and the Tirpitz Plan, 1875-1914 (Boston: Brill, 2002)
31. Kennedy, The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, pp. 416-419
32. Peter Padfield, The Great Naval Race: The Anglo-German Naval Rivalry, 1900-1914 (Edinburgh: Birlinn, 2005), pp. 65, 295.
33. On World War I, see Blair, Hitler's U-Boat War, pp. 9-15, 36.
34. On its failure to develop submarines, see Robert J. Art, The Influence of Foreign Policy on Seapower: New Weapons and Weltpolitik in Wilhelminian Germany (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1973).
35. Denis Warner and Peggy Warner, The Tide at Sunrise: A History of the Russo-Japanese War, 1904-1905 (London: Angus and Roberston, 1974), pp. 71-77, 144, 147, 162-166
36. Andrew Malozemoff, Russian Far Eastern Policy, 1881-1904: With Special Emphasis on the Causes of the Russo-Japanese War (New York: Octagon, 1977), pp. 41-68, 170, 209, 218, 228, 243, 245, 248
37. Ian Nish, The Origins of the Russo-Japanese War (New York: Longman, 1985), pp. 163, 247, 253
38. John Albert White, The Diplomacy of the Russo-JapaneseWar (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1964), pp. 121, 127.
39. Paul F. Langer, "Soviet Military Power in Asia," in Donald S. Zagoria, ed., Soviet Policy in East Asia (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1982), pp. 252-255
40. Robert A. Scalapino, "Asia in a Global Context: Strategic Issues for the Soviet Union," in Richard H. Solomon and Masataka Kosaka, eds., The Soviet Far East Military Buildup: Nuclear Dilemmas and Asian Security (Dover, Mass.: Auburn House, 1986), pp. 21-39.
41. See, for example, Adam B. Ulam, Expansion and Coexistence: Soviet Foreign Policy, 1917-1973, 2d ed. (New York: Praeger, 1974), pp. 3-30
42. Vladislav Zubok and Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin's Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996)
43. Jack Snyder, "The Gorbachev Revolution: A Waning of Soviet Expansionism?" International Security, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Winter 1987/88), pp. 93-131.
44. Kenneth B. Pyle, The Making of Modern Japan (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1978), pp. 98-101, 108-109, 140-143
45. Kenneth B. Pyle, Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose (New York: PublicAffairs, 2007), pp. 119-123, 196-198
46. Saburo Ienaga, The Pacific War: World War II and the Japanese, 1931-1945 (New York: Pantheon, 1978), pp. 3-12, 97-128.
47. Peter Padfield, Maritime Power and the Struggle for Freedom: Naval Campaigns That Shaped the Modern World, 1788-1851 (New York: Overlook, 2005), pp. 147-172, 217-253
48. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery, pp. 124-133, 145, 167-168
49. Rodger, The Command of the Ocean, pp. 459-460
50. Ropp, The Development of a Modern Navy, pp. 10, 22-23, 308, 322-323
51. Hamilton, Anglo-French Naval Rivalry, pp. 51-54, 296-298, 304, 314-318
52. C.J. Bartlett, Great Britain and Sea Power, 1815-1853 (Oxford: Clarendon, 1963), pp. 180-181, 186-187, 249, 283-285, 290-293
53. Arthur J. Marder, The Anatomy of British Sea Power: A History of British Naval Policy in the Pre-Dreadnought Era, 1880-1905 (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1940), pp. 311-316, 320-321, 330-335.
54. Padfield, The Great Naval Race, pp. 180, 184, 210-212, 234, 250-260, 280, 288, 292, 297-298.
55. Paul W. Schroeder. Austria, Great Britain, and the Crimean War: The Destruction of the European Concert (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1972), pp. 147-148, 171, 187, 223, 283-284, 293.
56. On the conditions of the Russian and Japanese navies, see Warner and Warner, The Tide at Sunrise, pp. 55, 77-78, 162-164
57. Donald W. Mitchell, A History of Russian and Soviet Sea Power (New York: Macmillan, 1974), pp. 198-203.
58. James William Morley, The Fateful Choice: Japan's Advance into Southeast Asia, 1939-1941 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1980), pp. 121-122
59. John Mueller, "Pearl Harbor: Military Inconvenience, Political Disaster," International Security, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Winter 1991/92), pp. 172-203.
60. On the ongoing importance of geography for international politics, see Jakub J. Grygiel, Great Powers and Geopolitical Change (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), pp. 1-20, 164-177
61. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
62. More generally, see Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (January 1978), pp. 167-214
63. Stephen Van Evera, "Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War," International Security, Vol. 22, No. 4 (Spring 1998), pp. 5-43.
64. See, for example, Peter C. Perdue, China Marches West: The Qing Conquest of Central Eurasia (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap, 2005)
65. Morris Rossabi, ed., China among Equals: The Middle Kingdom and Its Neighbors, 10th-14th Centuries (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1983)
66. Alastair Iain Johnston, Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1995).
67. The best research account of the construction of the treasure fleet and the Ming voyages is Edward L. Dreyer, Zheng He: China and the Oceans in the Early Ming Dynasty, 1405-1433 (New York: Pearson Longman, 2007).
68. Dennis J. Blasko, The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century (New York: Routledge, 2004)
69. Dennis J. Blasko, "PLA Ground Forces: The View from Beijing... or Heilongjiang... or Xinjiang," in Mark Mohr, ed., The Chinese People's Liberation Army: Should the United States Be Worried? Asia Program Special Report, No. 135 (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center, December 2006), pp. 17-24.
70. Dennis J. Blasko, "PLA Ground Force Modernization and Mission Diversification: Underway in All Military Regions," in Roy Kamphausen and Andrew Scobell, eds., Right-Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military (Carlisle, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2007), pp. 281-374
71. Murray Scot Tanner, "How China Manages Internal Security Challenges and Its Impact on PLA Missions," in Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Andrew Scobell, eds., Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other Than Taiwan (Carlisle, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2009), pp. 39-98.
72. Chinese border forces include the PAP. On the 2008 blizzard, see "China to Deploy Military Helicopters in Snow Disaster Relief Work," Xinhua, January 30, 2008, World News Connection (WNC), doc. no. 200801301477.1 _544d0025dbc550ac. On U.S. and Chinese forces, see International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance: 2007 (London: IISS, 2007), pp. 28-38, 346-350.
73. On the PAP, see Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, "China's National Defense in 2006," China Daily, December 29, 2006, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-12/29/content_771191.htm; "Chinese Servicemen Urged to Cherish 'Correct Values,'" People's Daily, February 13, 2008, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90785/6353225.html
74. Craig S. Smith, "China's Efforts against Crime Make No Dent," New York Times, December 26, 2001. On PAP apprehension, see Yang Minqing and Tang Hua, "Strengthen Capacity of Armed Police Force in Implementation of Diversified Tasks," Liaowang, January 26, 2009, Open Source Center (OSC), doc. no. CPP20090210710009. For the quote from Hu's speech, see Jiefangjun Bao, March 17, 2009, OSC, doc. no. CPP2009031770001.
75. On the General Staff Department's priorities, see "Zongcanbu Shu Quanjun Xiniandu Junshi Xunlian Gongzuo" [General staff department lays out 2008 annual training work for entire military], Jiefang Junbao, January 21, 2008, p. 1.
76. I am grateful to Taylor Fravel for suggesting this source. For the total number of U.S. police officers, see the U.S. Department of Justice figures at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/lawenf.htm.
77. "Minyong Jichang bei Zhengyong" [Civilian airfields commandeered, more than 10,000 People's Armed Police will go to Xinjiang to maintain stability], Boxun.com, http://news.boxun.com/news/gb/china/2009/07/200907101619.shtml; Edward Wong, "China Locks Down Restive Region after Deadly Clashes," New York Times, July 7, 2009; and "Clampdown on Uyghur Cities," Radio Free Asia, July 7, 2009, http://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/clampdown-07092009101424.html.
78. Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael S. Chase, Derek Eaton, and Kevin L. Pollpeter, Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies and Their Implications for the United States (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2007). For a comparison of Chinese and Soviet strategies, see Michael McDevitt, "The PLA's Anti-Access Role in a Taiwan Contingency," paper presented at the 2007 International Conference on PLA Affairs, Council of Advanced Policy Studies, Taipei, Taiwan, November 29-December 1, 2007.
79. Lyle Goldstein andWilliam Murray, "Undersea Dragons: China's Maturing Submarine Force," International Security, Vol. 28, No. 4 (Spring 2004), pp. 161-196
80. William S. Murray, "An Overview of the PLAN Submarine Force," in Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, Murray, and Andrew R. Wilson, eds., China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2007), pp. 59-76
81. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2007 (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, 2007), http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/070523-China-Military-Power-final.p df.
82. On the breach of the carrier task force, see "Defenses on Subs to Be Reviewed, Chinese Ship's Shadowing Cited," Washington Times, November 14, 2006
83. Bai Yu, "The Mystery of Stalking U.S. Aircraft Carrier 'Kitty Hawk,'" Zhongguo Tongxunshe, November 16, 2006, in WNC, doc. no. 200611161477.1_e25100ab737a10f8; and Audra Ang, "Admiral Downplays Sub Incident," AP, November 17, 2006. On Chinese mine capability, see Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, "Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin's Mace' Capability," China Maritime Studies, No. 3 (Newport, R.I.: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, 2009).
84. On Chinese acquisition of Russian arms, see "Zhong Yi Wuqi Jiaoyi" [Sino-Russian arms exchange], Guoji Zhanwang [World outlook], No. 8 (2007), p. 19
85. Dmitriy Vasilyev, "Whom Russia Arms," Kommersant-Vlast, March 9, 2009, OSC, doc. no. CEP20090310358002.
86. McDevitt, "The PLA's Anti-Access Role in a Taiwan Contingency"
87. Bernard D. Cole, "China's Growing Maritime Power: Implications for the United States," in Mohr, The Chinese People's Liberation Army, pp. 12-16
88. Office of Naval Intelligence, "Seapower Questions on the Chinese Submarine Force," U.S. Navy, December 20, 2006, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/ONI2006.pdf
89. Bernard D. Cole, Taiwan's Security: History and Prospects (New York: Routledge, 2006), pp. 34-36,179-180
90. Eric A. McVadon, "China's Maturing Navy," NavalWar College Review, Vol. 59, No. 2 (Spring 2006), pp. 90-107
91. Ronald O'Rourke, "China's Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities-Background and Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, updated July 20, 2007), Order Code RL33153; and David Lague, "U.S. Military Officials Wary of China's Expanding Fleet of Submarines," International Herald Tribune, February 7, 2008.
92. Liu Huaqing, Liu Huaqing Huiyilu [Memoirs of Liu Huaqing] (Beijing: Jiefangjun Chubanshe, 2004), pp. 478-480.
93. See also Liu's early speeches on the aircraft carrier in Liu Huaqing, Liu Huaqing Junshi Wenxuan [Selected military works of Liu Huaqing] (Beijing: Jiefangjun Chubanshe), pp. 267-272, 472-474, 495-497, 563-566.
94. See also Andrew S. Erickson and Andrew R. Wilson, "China's Aircraft Carrier Dilemma," Naval War College Review, Vol. 59, No. 4 (Autumn 2006), pp. 13-45.
95. Interview by author, Beijing, April 23, 2007. Much of the analysis in this article of Chinese policy is based on extensive interviews conducted by the author during visits to Beijing between 2007 and 2009 with senior civilian and military specialists on international security affairs and Chinese foreign policy. For reasons of privacy, Chinese interlocutors are not identified by name in this article.
96. Li Hanping, "Hunqian Mengrao 50 Nian: Huashuo Zhongguo Hangkong Mujian" [A fiftyyear dream: Speaking of a Chinese aircraft carrier], Zhongguo Junzhuanmin [Chinese defense conversion], No. 2 (2007), p. 10.
97. Mure Dickie and Martin Dickson, "China Hints at Aircraft Carrier Project," Financial Times, November 16, 2008, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d59c34fe-b412-11dd-8e35-0000779fd18c .html?nclick_check?1
98. Li Xiaokun and Cui Xiaohuo, "Govt Mulls Aircraft Carriers," China Daily, December 24, 2008.
99. Edward Wong, "China Signals More Interest in Building Aircraft Carrier," New York Times, December 23, 2008.
100. See, for example, the debate between Ye Zicheng and Ni Lexiong in Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi [World economics and politics], No. 2 (2007), and No. 11 (2007).
101. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 22, 2007; April 25, 2007; December 11, 2007; and January 8, 2008
102. See also "Zhongguo Heping Fazhan de Diyuan Zhengzhi Huanjing: Xueshu Yantaohui Jiyao" [Geopolitical environment of Chinese peaceful development: Summary of academic seminar], Guancha yu Jiaoliu [Observation and exchange], No. 9 (Beijing: Research Center on China and the World, Peking University, August 5, 2007).
103. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 20, 2007; and April 23, 2007
104. Aerfeileide Saiye Mahan [Alfred Thayer Mahan], Lun Haiquan [On naval power] (Xian: Shanxi Shifan Daxue Chubanshe, 2007)
105. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 25, 2007; and December 10-12, 2007
106. "Soviet-Era Minsk Carrier Put up for Auction in Shenzhen," Xinhua, February 22, 2006, in WNC, doc. no. 200602221477.1_aa2500217a4ee0fe; and interview by author, Beijing, December 11, 2007.
107. See the transcript of the CCTV talk show Fangwu Xin Guancha [New observations on defense], http://blog.people.com.cn/blog/log/showlog.jspe?log_id? 1199442054658309&site_id?43809. On the "Rise of the Great Powers," see Chinese Central Television, Daguo Jueqi: Yuan Chuang Jing Bianben [The Rise of the Great Powers: The original exact script] (Beijing: Zhongguo Minzhu Fazhi Chubanshe, 2007). For a discussion of the program, see "TV Docu Stimulates More Open Attitude to History, China, the World," Xinhua, November 26, 2007, in WNC, doc. no. 200611261477.1_c53e00c9f57f9c2e; Irene Wang, "Propaganda Takes Back Seat in Fêted CCTV Series," South China Morning Post, November 27, 2006
108. Chua Chin Hon, "New Chinese TV Documentary Ventures Where Few Dare Tread," Straits Times (Singapore), December 9, 2006
109. See also Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, "China Studies the Rise of Great Powers," in Erickson, Goldstein, and Carnes Lord, eds., China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2009).
110. "Zhongguo de Haiyang Quanyi he Haijun" [China's maritime rights and navy], Shijie Zhishi [World knowledge], No. 1 (2009), pp. 16-17.
111. Anne-Marie Brady, "The Beijing Olympics as a Campaign of Mass Distraction," China Quarterly, No. 197 (March 2009), pp. 1-24
112. Suisheng Zhao "The Olympics and Chinese Nationalism," China Security, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Summer 2008), pp. 48-57.
113. On the jumbo jet, see "China to Manufacture Large Aircraft," Renmin Ribao, February 6, 2007, WNC, doc. no. 200702061477 .1_d90f00b93e81b8b8; "China's 1st Jumbo Jet to Take Off in 8 Yrs," Xinhua, March 6, 2009, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-03/06/content_7549092.htm
114. "China Launches Homegrown Jumbo Jet Company," Xinhua, May 11, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-05/11/content_6675923.htm. On the space program.
115. see "Xifang Pingshuo Zhongguo Taikong" [West comments on China's space ambition], Huanqiu Shibao [Global times], January 10, 2008.
116. "Scientific Exploration, Not Competition, Says China's Lunar Probe Chief Commander," Xinhua, October 24, 2007, in WNC, doc. no. 200710241477.1_1e0400ef270c0905; "New Rocket Set to Blast Off in 2013," China Daily, November 20, 2007, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-11/20content_6265340.htm.
117. "China to Launch 15 Rockets This Year," Xinhua, January 7, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/07/content_6376371.htm.
118. "Xifang Pingshuo Zhongguo Taikong Xiongxin" [The West comments on China's space ambitions], Huanqiu Shibao, January 10, 2008, p. 1.
119. On Antarctica, see "China Prepares for Expansion of Antarctic Base," Xinhua, November 5, 2007, in WNC, doc. no. 200711051477.1_cb8d003e5444c1d7
120. "China to Build Third Station on Top of Antarctica by 2009," Xinhua, January 30, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/30/content_6430503.htm. "Chinese Explorers Trek to Build Third Antarctic Base," December 18, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-12/18/content_7320076.htm.
121. See also interviews by author, Beijing, April 26, 2006; December 11-12, 2007; and January 9, 2008. On Antarctica, see "China Prepares for Expansion of Antarctic Base," Xinhua, November 5, 2007, in WNC, doc. no. 200711051477.1_cb8d003e5444c1d7; "China to Build Third Station on Top of Antarctica by 2009," Xinhua, January 30, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/30/content_6430503 .htm; and "Chinese Explorers Trek to Build Third Antarctic Base," December 18, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-12/18/content_7320076.htm. See also interviews by author, Beijing, April 26, 2006; December 11-12, 2007; and January 9, 2008
122. In addition to extensive coverage in Xinhua and Huanqiu Shibao, see the cover stories in Shijie Zhishi on January 1, 2009, and on April 16, 2009
123. "Weihu Hexie Haiyang de Zhongguo Jiandui" [China's fleet protects harmonious oceans], and "Renmin Haijun Zhanlue Lishi Zhuanbian" [Historical transformation of the strategy of the people's navy], Liaowang, April 20, 2009, pp. 34-37.
124. On the parade, see Christopher Bodeen, "China Plans Largest-ever Military Parade," Associated Press, February 11, 2009
125. Interview by author, Beijing, December 12, 2007
126. Interviews by author, Beijing, December 10-12, 2007; and May 20, 2009
127. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 20, 2007; April 22-23, 2007; April 25-26, 2007; December 11-12, 2007; and May 21, 2009
128. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 20, 2007; April 22-23, 2007; April 25-26, 2007; December 10-12, 2007; and January 8-9, 2008
129. Quoted in Tim Johnson, "As Military Balks, Chinese Public Pushes for Aircraft Carriers," McClatchy-Tribune News Service, November 7, 2007, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/21181.html.
130. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 20, 2007; April 22-23, 2007; April 25-26, 2007; December 10, 2007; December 12, 2007; and January 8-9, 2008
131. "Yindu Hangkong Mujian de Fazhan" [Development of Indian aircraft carriers], Guofang [National defense], September 2006, pp. 74-75
132. "Shijie Haijun Wuqi Zhaunbei Fazhan Xin Liangdian" [New bright spots in the development of world military equipment], Junshi Keji Zhoukan [Military science and technology weekly], March 30, 2005
133. "Yindu Hangmu Fazhan Jihua" [Indian aircraft carrier development plan], Xiandai Junshi [Contemporary military affairs], August 2001, pp. 20-22
134. "Yindu Haijun Fengfeng Huohuo Zou Dayang" [Indian navy urgently moving toward the oceans], Xiandai Jianchuan [Contemporary ships], July 2006, pp. 16-19
135. "Taiguo you ge 'Dongmeng Diyi Jian'" [Thailand has ASEAN's first vessel], Dangdai Junshi [Military affairs], August 2005, pp. 26-28
136. Gu Tongyang and Wang Weihong, "Hangmu Youyi de Yatai Zhanlue Qiju" [Asia-Pacific Chessboard with aircraft carriers on patrol], Junshi Keji Zhoukan, July 20, 2005
137. Liu Xinhua and Tai Yi, "Shixi 21 Shiji Chu Zhongguo Jueqi suo Mianlian de Haiyang Zhanlue Huanjing" [Analysis of the strategic environment that the rise of China faces on the early 21st century], Shijie Jingji Yanjiu [World economy], No. 4 (2004), pp. 9-10
138. Gu and Wang, "Hangmu Youyi de Yatai Zhanlue Qiju."
139. On Japan's helicopter carriers, see also Norimitsu Onishi, "Bomb by Bomb, Japan Sheds Military Restraints," New York Times, July 23, 2007.
140. Interview by author, Beijing, April, 22, 2007
141. Interviews by author, Beijing, April, 23, 2007; April 25, 2007; December 12, 2007; and January 9, 2008
142. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 24-25, 2007
143. See also Yang Yong, "Fahui Lu Hai Jianbei Youshi shi Daxing Hai Lu Fuhe Guojia de Biran Xuance" [Giving full play to having superiority on both land and sea is the inevitable choice of a large land-sea country], Heilongjiang Shehui Kexue [Heilongjiang social science], No. 3 (2004), p. 28.
144. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 23-25, 2007
145. "Zhongguo de Haiyang Quanyi he Haijun," p. 17.
146. Ni Lexiong, "Haiquan yu Zhongguo de Fazhan" [Naval power and China's development], in Guo Shuyong, ed., Zhanlue Yanjianglu [Lectures on strategy], (Beijing Daxue Chubanshe, 2006), p. 113.
147. See also Ni Lexiong, "Fazhan Qiangda de Haishang Liliang, Fei wei Baquan" [Developing great sea power is not hegemony], Lingdao Wenzhai [Leaders' digest], July 2006, pp. 63-64.
148. For a Chinese discussion of the role of China's ground force weakness in Sino-Japanese conflict, see Ye Zicheng, Luquan Fazhan yu Daguo Xingshuai [Development of land power and great power rise and decline] (Beijing: Xinxing Chubanshe, 2007), pp. 104-106.
149. Yong, "Fahui Lu Hai Jianbei Youshi shi Daxing Hai Lu Fuhe Guojia de Biran Xuance," p. 26.
150. Cao Yunhua and Li Changxin, "Meiguo Jueqi de Haiquan Yinsu Chutan" [A preliminary analysis of the naval factor in the rise of the United States], Dangdai Yatai [Contemporary Asia-Pacific], No. 5 (2006), p. 28.
151. China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Issue Group on Sea Lane Security and International Cooperation, Haishang Tongdao Anquan yu Guoji Hezuo [Sea lane security and international cooperation] (Beijing: Shishi Chubanshe, 2005), pp. 42-43.
152. Zhang Wenmu, "Shengcun, Fazhan, Haiquan" [Survival, development, sea power] Dangdai Junshi Wenzhai [Digest of military affairs], No. 8 (2006), http://www.51dh.net/magazine/html/399/399284.htm.
153. Interview by author, Beijing, April 22, 2007
154. Cao and Li, "Meiguo Jueqi de Haiquan Yinsu Chutan," p. 28.
155. Zhang Wenmu, "Zhihaiquan Shi Guojia Xingshuai Guanjian, Zhongguo Bixu Zouxiang Haiyang" [Sea control is key to the rise and fall and nations, China must move toward the oceans], Huanqiu Shibao, January 15, 2007
156. Ni Lexiong, "Zhihaiquan-Jiejue 'Taidu' de Guanjian" [Sea control-The key to resolving "Taiwan independence"], Lingdao Wenzhai, No. 6 (2004).
157. Yong, "Fahui Lu Hai Jianbei Youshi shi Daxing Hai Lu Fuhe Guojia de Biran Xuance," p. 28.
158. International Crisis Group, "China's Thirst for Oil," Asia Report, No. 153 (Brussels: International Crisis Group, June 9, 2008)
159. Daniel H. Rosen and Trevor Houser, "China Energy: AGuide for the Perplexed" (Washington, D.C.: Petersen Institute for International Economics, May 2007)
160. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2007 (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2007), pp. 262-264, 286-305.
161. See Mark Cozad, "China's Regional Power Projection: Prospects for Future Missions in South and East China Seas," in Kamphausen, Lai, and Scobell, Beyond the Strait, pp. 312-313.
162. Wang Yizhou, "Heping Fazhan Jieduan de Zhongguo Guojia Anquan: Yixiang Xin de Yicheng" [Chinese national security in the period of peaceful development: A new agenda], Guoji Jingji Luntan [International economic review], Nos. 9-10 (2006), pp. 8-9.
163. Wang Yizhou, "Heping Fazhan Jieduan de Guojia Anquan" [National security in the period of peaceful development], Shijie Zhishi, No. 23 (2006), p. 51.
164. For a discussion of the military aspects of such an operation, see Gabriel B. Collins and William S. Murray, "No Oil for the Lamps of China?" Naval War College Review, Vol. 61, No. 2 (Spring 2008), pp. 81-83.
165. Liu Jiangping and Feng Xianhui, "Zou Chuqu: Kuayue 600 Nian de Duihua" [Going out: Adialogue across 600 years], Liaowang, July 11, 2005, pp. 14-19.
166. Li Xiaojun, "Lun Haiquan dui Zhongguo Shiyou Anquan de Yingxiang" [On the influence of maritime power on Chinese oil security], Guoji Zhengzhi [International politics], Vol. 6, No. 4 (July 2004), pp. 18, 20.
167. Chinese President Hu Jintao reported discussed China's "Malaccan dilemma" in a 2003 economic work conference. See Wen Wei Po (Hong Kong), January 14, 2004, in WNC, doc. no. 200401151477.1_943f0015d65415c2.
168. Ye Hailin, "Xiang Xi ye Shi Haiyang" [There also ocean to the west], Guoji Xianqu Daobao [International herald leader], February 25, 2009, http://news.xinhuanet.com/herald/2009-02/25/content_10892346.htm.
169. Zhang Wenmu, Shijie Diyuan Zhengzhi zhong de Zhongguo Guojia Anquan Liyi Fenxi [Analysis of Chinese national security interests in world geopolitics] (Jinan: Shandong Renmin Chubanshe, [2004),] pp. 1-2, 10-11, 216, 293-294, 302-303.
170. Liu and Tai, "Shixi 21 Shiji Chu Zhongguo Jueqi suo Mianlian de Haiyang Zhanlue Huanjing."
171. See the discussion of the Spratly Islands in "Nansha Jundao: Zhongguo Yongyou Wuke Zhengbian de Zhuquan" [Spratly Islands: China possesses undisputable sovereignty], Shijie Zhishi, No. 5 (2009).
172. See Cozad, "China's Regional Power Projection," pp. 313-314.
173. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 22, 2007; December 12, 2007; and January 9, 2008
174. Li, "Lun Haiquan dui Zhongguo Shiyou Anquan de Yingxiang," p. 19.
175. Ma Haoliang: "China Needs to Break through the Encirclement of First Island Chain; Nansha Cannot Afford to Be 'Harassed,'" Ta Kung Pao, February 21, 2009, in OSC, doc. no. CPP20090221708020.
176. See, for example, Ye Zicheng, "Zhongguo de Heping Fazhan: Luquan de Huigui yu Fazhan" [China's peaceful development: The return and development of land power], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi, No. 2 (2007)
177. Shiping Tang, "Zai Lun Zhongguo de Zhanlue" [Reconsideration of China's grand strategy], Zhanlue yu Guanli [Strategy and management], No. 4 (2001)
178. Xu Bianyu, "Haiquan de Wuqu yu Fansi" [Long-standing errors concerning naval power and a reconsideration], Zhanlue yu Guanli, No. 5 (2003)
179. Cao and Li, "Meiguo Jueqi de Haiquan Yinsu Chutan."
180. See Zhang Yuliang, Zhanyi Xue [Study of military campaigns], pt. 4 (Beijing: Guofang Daxue Chubanshe, 2006)
181. Ge Dongsheng, Guojia Anquan Zhanlue Lun [On national security strategy] (Beijing: Junshi Kexue Chubanshe, 2006), pp. 222-231
182. Liu Zhongmin, "Zhong Mei Haizhan zhi Shuo Shi Wudao" [Talk of China-U.S. naval war is misleading], Huanqiu Shibao, March 12, 2008, p. 11
183. Interviews by author, Beijing, January 8, 2008; and May 8, 2009
184. Chinese foreign ministry official and other Chinese foreign policy analysts, interviews by author, Beijing and Stockholm, December 12, 2008; May 20, 2009; and May 25, 2009
185. Interview by author, Beijing, April 25, 2007
186. Fang Kun, "Zhanlue Diyuan yu Zhongguo Haijun Jianshe" [Strategic geography and Chinese naval construction], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi, No. 8 (2004), p. 47.
187. Yong, "Fahui Lu Hai Jianbei Youshi shi Daxing Hai Lu Fuhe Guojia de Biran Xuance," pp. 26-27.
188. Wang Wei, "Hangmu, Haiquan Shidai Daguo de Xuanze" [Great power choices during the era of aircraft carriers, naval power], Xiandai Jianchuan [Contemporary ships], No. 11 (2005), p. 21.
189. Interviews by author, Beijing, May 20, 2009
190. Bonnie Glaser and Lyle Morris, "Chinese Perceptions of U.S. Decline and Power," China Brief, Vol. 9, No. 14 (July 9, 2009).
191. Yong, "Fahui Lu Hai Jianbei Youshi Shi Daxing Hai Lu Fuhe Guojia de Biran Xuance," p. 29.
192. "Copenhagen" refers to Britain's 1807 preventative war against the Danish fleet. See Jonathan Steinberg, "The Copenhagen Complex," Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 1, No. 3 (July 1966), pp. 23-46.
193. Thomas Munch-Petersen, Defying Napoleon: How Britain Bombarded Copenhagen and Seized the Danish Fleet in 1807 (Gloucestershire, U.K.: History, 2007).
194. Interviews by author, Beijing, April 22, 2007; and April 24, 2007; and Ni, "Haiquan yu Zhongguo de Fazhan," p. 116.
195. Interview by author, Beijing, April 24, 2007
196. Liu and Tai, "Shixi 21 Shiji Chu Zhongguo Jueqi suo Mianlian de Haiyang Zhanlue Huanjing," pp. 7-8.
197. See also Che Xianming, "Cong Junshi Shijiao Kan Woguo de Nengyuan Anquan" [Chinese energy security seen from the military angle], in Ba Zhongtan, Daguo Xingqi zhong de Guojia Anquan, Disanjie Guojia Anquan Luntan Lunwenji [National security of rising powers, collected essays of the third session of the national security forum] (Beijing: Beijing Daxue Chubanshe, 2005), pp. 203-204.
198. Liu and Feng, "Zou Chuqu," p. 18.
199. Chinese foreign policy analysts and military officer, interviews by author, Beijing, December 11, 2008; and May 21, 25, 2009
200. Erickson and Wilson, "China's Aircraft Carrier Dilemma." On China's aviation industry, see Evan S, Madeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane, and James C. Mulvenon, A New Direction for China Defense Industry (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2005), pp. 155-204.
201. Kim Nødskov, "Aircraft Carriers: China's Way to Great Power Status?" (Copenhagen: Institute for Strategy, Royal Danish Defense College, 2008), pp. 16-19
202. "China Considers Next-Generation Su-33s for Aircraft Carrier Programme," Jane's Defence Weekly, October 28, 2008, http://www.janes.com/news/defence/systems/jdi/jdi081028_1_n.shtml.
203. For a comprehensive discussion of the organizational impediments to the spread of carrier capabilities, see Michael Horowitz, "The Spread of Military Power: Causes and Consequences for International Politics," unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, 2009
204. For a discussion of the organizational complexities of managing a carrier, see Gene I. Rochlin, Todd R. La Porte, and Karlene H. Roberts, "The Self-Designing High-Reliability Organization: Aircraft Carrier Flight Operations at Sea," Naval War College Review, No. 90 (Autumn 1987), pp. 76-90.
205. See the discussion of Chinese force projection in the aftermath of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. Jake Hooker, "Quake Revealed Deficiencies of China's Military," New York Times, July 2, 2008
206. Wendell Minnick, "China's Gator Navy Makes Marginal Strides," Defense News, January 12, 2009
207. See Timothy J. Keating, transcript of press roundtable, U.S. Embassy, Beijing, China, May 12, 2007, http://www.pacom.mil/speeches/sst2007/070512-keating-china_press.shtml.
208. See, for example, "Opening Remarks of Senator Jim Webb at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing on Maritime and Sovereignty Disputes in Asia," July 15, 2009, http://www.webb.senate.gov/newsroom/record.cfm?id=315847
209. Robert D. Kaplan, "Center Stage for the Twenty-first Century Power Plays in the Indian Ocean," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 2 (March/April 2009), pp. 16-32
210. Hugh Lessig, "Keeping 11 Carriers to Be Tough Fight," daily.press.com, January 10, 2009
211. Steve Liewer, "China's Military Rebirth Prompts U.S. Response," San Diego Union-Tribune, February 17, 2009
212. Drake Bennett, "The (Smaller, Faster, Cheaper) Future of Sea Power," Boston Globe, April 19, 2009
213. James Holmes, "A Chinese Aircraft Carrier," Providence Journal-Bulletin, February 8, 2009
214. Bill Gertz, "Inside the Ring," Washington Times, June 1, 2007
215. Peter A. Dutton, "International Law and the November 2004 'Han Incident,'" Asian Security, Vol. 2, No. 2 (August 2006), pp. 87-101.
216. On the surfacing of the Chinese submarine, see Matthew Hickley, "Oops! Who Let That Chinese Sub in Here?" Daily Mail, November 10, 2007
217. On the March 2009 incident and Chinese surveillance, see Thom Shanker and Mark Mazzetti, "China and U.S. Clash on Naval Fracas," New York Times, March 10, 2009
218. Mark J. Valencia, "Tempting the Dragon" (San Francisco, Calif.: Northeast Asia Peace and Security Project, Nautilus Institute, March 12, 2009), http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/09020Valencia.html.
219. On China's growing maritime assertiveness, see Dennis Blair, director of national intelligence, testimony before the U.S. Senate, 111th Cong., 1st sess., March 10, 2009, quoted in Deborah Tate, "U.S. Intelligence Official Says China Adopting More Aggressive Military Posture," VOANews.com, March 10, 2009, http://www .voanews.com/english/2009-03-10-voa76.cfm.
220. Peter Dutton and John Garofano, "China Undermines Maritime Laws," Far Eastern Economic Review, Vol. 172, No. 3 (April 2009), pp. 44-47.