Authoritarian institutions and regime survival: Transitions to democracy and subsequent autocracy

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 42, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 283-309

  Wright, Joseph ^a   Escribà Folch, Abel ^a  

^a UNIVERSITAT POMPEU FABRA   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84857844885     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: 14692112     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123411000317     Document Type: Review

References (133)

1. Barbara Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown: Empirical Test of a Game Theoretic Argument' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, Ga., 1999);
2. Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003;
3. Benjamin Smith. 'Life of the Party: The Origins of Regime Breakdown and Persistence under Single-Party Rule', World Politics, 57 (2005), 421-51;
4. Jennifer Gandhi and Adam Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats', Comparative Political Studies, 40 (2007), 1279-301;
5. Jason Brownlee, Authoritarianism in the Age of Democratization (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007);
6. Jennifer Gandhi, Political Institutions under Dictatorship (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008);
7. Barbara Geddes, 'Party Creation as an Autocratic Survival Strategy', presented at 'Dictatorships: Their Governance and Social Consequences' Conference at Princeton University (2008);
8. Beatrice Magaloni, 'Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule', Comparative Political Studies, 41 (2008), 715-41.
9. Boix, Democracy and Redistribution;
10. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
11. Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard, 'A Rational Theory of the Size of Government', Journal of Political Economy, 89 (1981), 914-27.
12. Eric Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments. (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1997).
13. Acemoglu and Robinson, Economic Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship;
14. Boix, Democracy and Redistribution.
15. Acemoglu and Robinson, Economic Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship;
16. Boix, Democracy and Redistribution;
17. Elisabeth Jean Wood, Forging Democracy from Below (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
18. Gandhi and Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats'.
19. Acemoglu and Robinson, Economic Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship.
20. Carles Boix and Milan Svolik, 'The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions and Power-sharing in Dictatorships', presented at 'Dictatorships: Their Governance and Social Consequences' Conference at Princeton University (2008).
21. Gandhi and Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats';
22. Magaloni, 'Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule'.
23. Ellen Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World: Incumbents, Opponents and Institutions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005);
24. Geddes, 'Party Creation as an Autocratic Survival Strategy'.
25. Gary Cox and Mathew D. McCubbins, Legislative Leviathan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993);
26. John Aldrich, Why Parties? (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995).
27. Abel Escribà-Folch, 'The Political Economy of Growth and Accountability under Dictatorship' (CEACS, Instituto Juan, 2007).
28. Ora John Reuter and Jennifer Gandhi, 'Economic Performance and Elite Defection from Hegemonic Parties', British Journal of Political Science, 41 (2011), 83-110.
29. However, see Anna Grzymala-Busse, Redeeming the Communist Past (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002).
30. Samuel P. Huntington, 'How Countries Democratize', Political Research Quarterly, 106 (1991-92), 579-616, p. 587.
31. Terry Lynn Karl, 'Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America', Comparative Politics, 23 (1990), 1-21;
32. Josep Colomer, 'Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 1283-302.
33. Robert H Dix, 'The Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes', Western Political Quarterly, 35 (1982), 554-73.
34. Huntington, 'How Countries Democratize'; Juan Linz and H. E. Chehabi, Sultanistic Regimes (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998);
35. Ronald Wintrobe, The Political Economy of Dictatorship (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998);
36. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.
37. Robert Jackson and Carl Rosberg, Personal Rule in Black Africa (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982);
38. Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, 'Patrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa', World Politics, 46 (1994), 453-89; (Pubitemid 24433224)
39. Linz and Chehabi, Sultanistic Regimes;
40. Wintrobe, The Political Economy of Dictatorship;
41. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.
42. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown';
43. Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, 'Patrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa';
44. Mark Peceny, Caroline Beer and Shannon Sanchez-Terry, 'Dictatorial Peace?' American Political Science Review, 96 (2002), 15-26;
45. Dan Reiter and Allan Stam, 'Identifying the Culprit: Democracy, Dictatorship, and Dispute Initiation', American Political Science Review, 97 (2003), 333-7. (Pubitemid 36737851)
46. Reiter and Stam, 'Identifying the Culprit'.
47. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003).
48. Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, 'Patrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa'.
49. Joseph Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain? How Legislatures Impact Economic Growth and Investment', American Journal of Political Science, 52 (2008), 322-43.
50. Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World;
51. Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain?'
52. Howard Wiarda, Dictatorship and Development: The Methods of Control in Trujillo's Government (Gainesville: University of Florida Press, 1968).
53. Wiarda, Dictatorship and Development.
54. Samuel Decalo, The Stable Minority: Civilian Rule in Africa, 1960-1990 (Gainesville: Florida Academic Press, 1998), p. 68.
55. Wendy Hunter, Eroding Military Influence in Brazil (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1997), p. 103.
56. See Frances Hagopian, 'Democracy by Undemocratic Means? Elites, Political Pacts, and Regime Transition in Contemporary Brazil', Comparative Political Studies, 23 (1990), 147-70.
57. Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics;
58. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.
59. Karl, 'Dilemmas of Democratization';
60. Colomer, 'Transitions by Agreement'.
61. See Phillip Williams and Knut Walter, Militarization and Demilitarization in El Salvador's Transition to Democracy (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1997);
62. Jennifer Schirmer, The Guatemalan Military Project: A Violence Called Democracy (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1998).
63. The New York Times reported that a pre-election survey predicted Larrazábal to defeat both the Acción Democrática (Rómulo Betancourt) and Partido Social Cristiano de Venezuela (Rafael Caldera) candidates.
64. See Harry Kantor, 'The Development of Accion Democratica de Venezuela', Journal of Inter-American Studies, 1 (1959), 237-55, p. 238.
65. See Aurel Croissant, 'Riding the Tiger: Civilian Control and the Military in Democratizing Korea', Armed Forces & Society, 30 (2004), 357-81, p. 371.
66. Daniel King, 'The Thai Parliamentary Elections of 1992', Asian Survey, 32 (1992), 1109-23;
67. Daniel King and Jim LoGerfo, 'Thailand: Toward Democratic Stability', Journal of Democracy, 7 (1996), 102-117. (Pubitemid 126034765)
68. Michael Mezey, 'The 1971 Coup in Thailand: Understanding Why the Legislature Fails', Asian Survey 13 (1973), 306-17.
69. Robert Zimmerman, 'Student Revolution in Thailand: The End of the Thai Bureaucratic Polity?' Asian Survey, 14 (1974), 509-529.
70. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown';
71. Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles;
72. Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain?'
73. Hein Goemans, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Giacomo Chiozza, 'Introducing Archigos: A Data Set of Political Leaders', Journal of Peace Research, 46 (2009), 269-83.
74. Gandhi, Political Institutions under Dictatorship.
75. Williams and Walter, Militarization and Demilitarization.
76. Nathaniel Beck, Jonathan Katz and Richard Tuck, 'Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable', American Journal of Political Science, 42 (1998), 1260-88;
77. David Carter and Curt Signorino, 'Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data', Political Analysis, 18 (2010), 271-92.
78. Adam Przeworski, Michael Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000);
79. Carles Boix and Susan Stokes, 'Endogenous Democratization', World Politics, 55 (2003), 517-49. (Pubitemid 38122875)
80. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown';
81. Brownlee, Authoritarianism in the Age of Democratization.
82. Felipe Agüero, 'Legacies of Transitions: Institutionalization, the Military, and Democracy in South America', Mershon International Studies Review, 424 (1991), 383-404;
83. David Pion-Berlin, 'Between Confrontation and Accommodation: Military and Government Policy in Democratic Argentina', Journal of Latin American Studies, 23 (1991), 543-71.
84. Michael Schatzberg, 'Beyond Mobutu: Kabila and the Congo', Journal of Democracy, 8 (1997), 70-84. (Pubitemid 127137294)
85. G. S. Maddala, Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
86. Maddala, Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables, p. 244-5.
87. Islam is the share of the population that is Muslim, from Bruce Bueno de Mequita, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson and James Morrow, Logic of Political Survival (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003),
88. With updates from the CIA, World Factbook.
89. Ethnic fractionalization is from James D. Fearon and David Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review, 97 (2003), 75-90. (Pubitemid 36420120)
90. Log(GDPpc) and Growth are from Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris: OECD, 2003).
91. Cold War is coded as one for all years between 1946 and 1989.
92. Harvey Starr and Christina Lindborg, 'Democratic Dominoes Revisited: The Hazards of Governmental Transitions, 1974-1996', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47 (2003), 490-519; (Pubitemid 36946313)
93. Daniel Brinks and Michael Coppedge, 'Diffusion Is No Illusion: Neighbour Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy', Comparative Political Studies, 39 (2660), 463-89.
94. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.
95. For CLARIFY, see Michael Tomz, Jason Wittenberg and Gary King, 'Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation', American Journal of Political Science, 44 (2000), 347-61.
96. Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World;
97. Magaloni, 'Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule'.
98. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.
99. John Londregan and Keith Poole, 'Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power', World Politics, 42 (1990), 151-83.
100. Mark Gasiorowski, 'Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 882-97. (Pubitemid 126007925)
101. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.
102. Gandhi and Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats';
103. Abel Escribà-Folch, 'El Destino de los Dictadores tras el Poder ?Quié n y Cómo Puede Castigarlos?' Revista de Estudios Polìticos, 140 (2008), 105-33.
104. Goemans, Gleditsch and Chiozza, 'Introducing Archigos'.
105. Stephen Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1995).
106. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown';
107. Boix, Democracy and Redistribution;
108. Smith, 'Life of the Party';
109. Beatric Magaloni, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006);
110. Gandhi and Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats';
111. Brownlee, Authoritarianism in the Age of Democratization;
112. Gandhi, Political Institutions Under Dictatorship;
113. Magaloni, 'Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule';
114. Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain?'
115. Gandhi and Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats';
116. Magaloni, 'Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule';
117. Geddes, 'Party Creation as an Autocratic Survival Strategy'.
118. For a view which parallels ours, see Gary Cox, 'Authoritarian Elections and Leadership Succession, 1975-2000' (unpublished paper, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego).
119. Robert Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1971).
120. Acemoglu and Robinson, Economic Origins of Democracy and Dictatorship;
121. Boix, Democracy and Redistribution.
122. See, for example, Tamir Moustafa, The Struggle for Constitutional Power: Law, Politics, and Economic Development in Egypt (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
123. Peceny, Beer and Sanchez-Terry, 'Dictatorial Peace?';
124. Reiter and Stam, 'Identifying the Culprit';
125. Jessica Weeks, 'Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve', International Organization, 62 (2008), 35-64;
126. Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain?'
127. Hanne Fjelde, 'Generals, Dictators, and Kings: Authoritarian Regimes and Civil Conflict, 1973-2004'
128. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27 (2010), 195-218;
129. Michael Albertrus, 'Political Regimes and Poverty Reduction, 1950-2002', presented at the Midwest Political Science Association meeting, Chicago, 2009.
130. Jackson and Rosberg, Personal Rule in Black Africa;
131. Huntington, 'How Countries Democratize';
132. Bratton and van de Walle, 'Patrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa';
133. Geddes, 'Authoritarian Breakdown'.