The effects of climate change on the mobilization of diffuse substances from agricultural systems

Advances in Agronomy

Volumn 115, Issue , 2012, Pages 41-77

  Macleod, C J A ^a   Falloon, P D ^b   Evans, R ^c   Haygarth, P M ^d  

^a SCOTTISH CROP RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United Kingdom)

^b MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^c ANGLIA RUSKIN UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^d LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change impacts; Expert assessment; Land use; Pollution; Precipitation; Review; Soil; Temperature

Indexed keywords

EID: 84857514060     PISSN: 00652113     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-394276-0.00002-0     Document Type: Chapter

References (199)

1. Adams R., Elliott S. Physically based modelling of sediment generation and transport under a large rainfall simulator. Hydrol. Process. 2006, 20:2253-2270.
2. Alam M.S., Harris R. Moorland soil-erosion and spectral reflectance. Int. J. Remote Sens. 1987, 8:593-608.
3. Anderson G.C., Fillery I.R.P., Dunin F.X., Dolling P.J., Asseng S. Nitrogen and water flows under pasture-wheat and lupin-wheat rotations in deep sands in Western Australia-2. Drainage and nitrate leaching 1996, 345-361.
4. Arheimer B., Andreasson J., Fogelberg S., Johnsson H., Pers C.B., Persson K. Climate change impact on water quality: Model results from southern Sweden. Ambio 2005, 34:559-566.
5. Audsley E., Pearn K.R., Harrison P.A., Berry P.M. The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system. Clim. Chang. 2008, 90:57-88.
6. Auzet A.V., Boiffin J., Ludwig B. Concentrated flow erosion in cultivated catchments: Influence of soil surface state. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 1995, 20:759-767.
7. Bagshaw C.S., Thorrold B., Davison M., Duncan I.J.H., Matthews L.R. The influence of season and of providing a water trough on stream use by beef cattle grazing hill-country in New Zealand. Appl. Anim. Behav. Sci. 2008, 109:155-166.
8. Barlow K., Halliwell D., Nash D. Controlling soil water content in fertiliser dissolution experiments. Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst. 1999, 55:7-14.
9. Barth J.A.C., Grathwohl P., Jones K.C. Special issue: AquaTerra: Pollutant behavior in the soil, sediment, ground, and surface water system-Introduction. Environ. Pollut. 2007, 148:693-694.
10. Beier C., Emmett B.A., Penuelas J., Schmidt I.K., Tietema A., Estiarte M., Gundersen P., Llorens L., Riis-Nielsen T., Sowerby A., Gorissen A. Carbon and nitrogen cycles in European ecosystems respond differently to global warming. Sci. Total Environ. 2008, 407:692-697.
11. Bellamy P.H., Loveland P.J., Bradley R.I., Lark R.M., Kirk G.J.D. Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978-2003. Nature 2005, 437:245-248.
12. Betts R.A., Boucher O., Collins M., Cox P.M., Falloon P.D., Gedney N., Hemming D.L., Huntingford C., Jones C.D., Sexton D.M.H., Webb M.J. Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide. Nature 2007, 448:1037-1041.
13. Beven K., Heathwaite L., Haygarth P., Des W., Brazier R., Withers P. On the concept of delivery of sediment and nutrients to stream channels. Hydrol. Process. 2005, 19:551-556.
14. Bielders C.L., Baveye P. Processes of structural crust formation on coarse-textured soils. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 1995, 46:221-232.
15. Bilotta G.S., Brazier R.E., Haygarth P.M. The impacts of grazing animals on the quality of soils, vegetation, and surface waters in intensively managed grasslands. Adv. Agron. 2007, 94:237-280.
16. Bilotta G.S., Brazier R.E., Haygarth P.M. Processes affecting transfer of sediment and colloids, with associated phosphorus, from intensively farmed grasslands: Erosion. Hydrol. Process. 2007, 21:135-139.
17. Blake L., Hesketh N., Fortune S., Brookes P.C. Assessing phosphorus 'Change-Points' and leaching potential by isotopic exchange and sequential fractionation. Soil Use Manage. 2002, 18:199-207.
18. Bloomfield J.P., Williams R.J., Gooddy D.C., Cape J.N., Guha P. Impacts of climate change on the fate and behaviour of pesticides in surface and groundwater-A UK perspective. Sci. Total Environ. 2006, 369:163-177.
19. Boardman J. The sensitivity of downland arable land to erosion by water. Landscape Sensitivity 1993, 211-228. John Wiley, Chichester. D.S.G. Thomas, R.J. Allison (Eds.).
20. Boardman J. Soil erosion and flooding on the eastern South Downs, southern England, 1976-2001. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 2003, 28:176-196.
21. Boardman J., Evans R., Favis-Mortlock D.T., Harris T.M. Climate change and soil erosion on agricultural land in England and Wales. Land Degrad. Rehabil. 1990, 2:95-106.
22. Bolline A. Study of the importance of splash and wash on cultivated loamy soils of Hesbaye (Belgium). Earth Surf. Process. 1978, 3:71-84.
23. Boorman D.B. Climate, hydrochemistry and economics of surface-water systems (CHESS): Adding a European dimension to the catchment modelling experience developed under LOIS. Sci. Total Environ. 2003, 314:411-437.
24. Borst H.L., Woodburn R. The effect of mulching and methods of cultivation on runoff and erosion from Muskingum silt loam. Agric. Eng. 1942, 23:19-22.
25. Boxall A.B.A., Blackwell P., Cavallo R., Kay P., Tolls J. The sorption and transport of a sulphonamide antibiotic in soil systems. Toxicol. Lett. 2002, 131:19-28.
26. Boxall A.B.A., Fogg L.A., Blackwell P.A., Kay P., Pemberton E.J., Croxford A. Veterinary medicines in the environment. Rev. Environ. Contam. Toxicol. 2004, 180:1-91.
27. Boxall A.B.A., Hardy A., Beulke S., Boucard T., Burgin L., Falloon P.D., Haygarth P.M., Hutchinson T., Kovats R.S., Leonardi G., Levy L.S., Nichols G., et al. Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture. Environ. Health Perspect. 2009, 117:508-514.
28. Bradley R.I., Moffat A.J., Falloon P.D. Climate change and soil function 2005, Defra final report SP0538., Defra, London.
29. Brazier R. Quantifying soil erosion by water in the UK: A review of monitoring and modelling approaches. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2004, 28:340-365.
30. Bryan R.B. Soil erodibility and processes of water erosion on hillslope. Geomorphology 2000, 32:385-415.
31. Buffle J., Leppard G.G. Characterisation of aquatic colloids and macromolecules. 1. Structure and behaviour of colloidal material. Environ. Sci. Technol. 1995, 29:2169-2175.
32. Burwell R.E., Timmons D.R., Holt R.F. Nutrient transport in surface runoff as influenced by soil cover and seasonal periods. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Proc. 1975, 39:523-528.
33. Chadwick D., Fish R., Oliver D.M., Heathwaite L., Hodgson C., Winter M. Management of livestock and their manure to reduce the risk of microbial transfers to water-The case for an interdisciplinary approach. Trends Food Sci. Technol. 2008, 19:240-247.
34. Chambers B.J., Garwood T.W.D. Monitoring of water erosion on arable farms in England and Wales. 1990-94. Soil Use Manage. 2000, 16:93-99.
35. Chang H., Carlson T.N. Water quality during winter storm events in Spring Creek, Pennsylvania USA. Hydrobiologia 2005, 544:321-332.
36. Checkland P., Poulter J. Learning for Action: A Short Definitive Account of Soft Systems Methodology and Its Use for Practitioners, Teachers and Students 2006, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester.
37. Christidis N., Stott P.A., Brown S., Karoly D.J., Caesar J. Human contribution to the lengthening of the growing season during 1950-99. J. Clim. 2007, 20:5441-5454.
38. Ciais P., Reichstein M., Viovy N., Granier A., Ogee J., Allard V., Aubinet M., Buchmann N., Bernhofer C., Carrara A., Chevallier F., De Noblet N., et al. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 2005, 437:529-533.
39. Colborne G.J.N., Staines S.J. Soil-erosion in South Somerset. J. Agric. Sci. 1985, 1:107-112.
40. Collins A.L., McGonigle D.F. Monitoring and modelling diffuse pollution from agriculture for policy support: UK and European experience. Environ. Sci. Policy 2008, 11:97-101.
41. Cuttle S.P., Bourne P.C. Uptake and leaching of nitrogen from artificial urine applied to grassland on different dates during the growing-season. Plant Soil 1993, 150:77-86.
42. Defra Agricultural and Farm Classification 2004, Defra, London.
43. Defra The Protection of Waters Against Pollution from Agriculture 2007, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London.
44. The British Survey of Fertiliser Practice: Fertiliser Use on Farm Crops for Crop Year 2007 2008, Defra, Defra, York.
45. Defra June Survey of Agricultural and Horticulture 2008, Defra, London.
46. Donald D.B., Hunter F.G., Sverko E., Hill B.D., Syrgiannis J. Mobilization of pesticides on an agricultural landscape flooded by a torrential storm. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2005, 24:2-10.
47. Dueri S., Calanca P.L., Fuhrer J. Climate change affects farm nitrogen loss-A Swiss case study with a dynamic farm model. Agric. Syst. 2007, 93:191-214.
48. Edwards W.M., Owens L.B. Large storm effects on total soil erosion. J. Soil Water Conserv. 1991, 46:75-78.
49. Edwards A.C., Withers P.J.A. Soil phosphorus management and water quality: A UK perspective. Soil Use Manage. 1998, 14:124-130.
50. Edwards W.M., Triplett G.B., Kramer R.M. A watershed study of glyphosate transport in runoff. J. Environ. Qual. 1980, 9:661-665.
51. Elhassanin A.S., Labib T.M., Gaber E.I. Effect of vegetation cover and land slope on runoff and soil losses from the watersheds of Burundi. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 1993, 43:301-308.
52. Elliott E.T. Aggregate structure and carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in native and cultivated soils. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 1986, 50:627-633.
53. Ellison W.D. Soil erosion studies-Part 1. Agric. Eng. 1947, 28:145-146.
54. Ellison W.D., Slater C.S. Factors that affect surface sealing and infiltration of exposed soil surfaces. Agric. Eng. 1945, 26:156-157. 162.
55. Elwell H.A., Stocking M.A. Vegetal cover to estimate soil erosion hazard in Rhodesia. Geoderma 1976, 15:61-70.
56. Evans R. Characteristics of water-eroded fields in lowland England. Assessment of Erosion 1980, 77-87. John Wiley, Chichester. M. De Boodt, D. Gabriels (Eds.).
57. Evans R. Erosion studies in the Dark Peak. Proc. North Engl. Soils Discuss. Group 1990, 24:39-61.
58. Evans R. Soils at risk of accelerated erosion in England and Wales. Soil Use Manage. 1990, 6:125-130.
59. Evans R. Water erosion in British farmers' fields-Some causes, impacts, predictions. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 1990, 14:199-219.
60. Evans R. Soil erosion in the UK initiated by grazing animals-A need for a national survey. Appl. Geogr. 1997, 17:127-141.
61. Evans R. Rural land use in England and Wales and the delivery to the adjacent seas of nitrogen, phosphorus and atrazine. Soil Use Manage. 2002, 18:346-352.
62. Evans R., Brazier R. Evaluation of modelled spatially distributed predictions of soil erosion by water versus field-based assessments. Environ. Sci. Policy 2005, 8:493-501.
63. Evans C.D., Monteith D.T., Cooper D.M. Long-term increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon: Observations, possible causes and environmental impacts. Environ. Pollut. 2005, 137:55-71.
64. Eviner V.T., Chapin F.S. Functional matrix: A conceptual framework for predicting multiple plant effects on ecosystem processes. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2003, 34:455-485.
65. Ewert F., Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., Metzger M.J., Leemans R. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2005, 107:101-116.
66. Falloon P., Betts R. Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation-The importance of an integrated approach. Sci. Total Environ. 2010, 408:5667-5687.
67. Falloon P.D., Smith P., Bradley R.I., Milne R. Modelling Soil Carbon Fluxes and Land Use Change for the National Carbon Dioxide Inventory 2004, Final Research Report to Defra. Contract CC0242., Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
68. Fay P.A., Kaufman D.M., Nippert J.B., Carlisle J.D., Harper C.W. Changes in grassland ecosystem function due to extreme rainfall events: Implications for responses to climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2008, 14:1600-1608.
69. Fazey I., Salisbury J.G., Lindenmayer D.B., Maindonald J., Douglas R. Can methods applied in medicine be used to summarize and disseminate conservation research?. Environ. Conserv. 2004, 31:190-198.
70. Fenner N., Freeman C., Hughes S., Reynolds B. Molecular weight spectra of dissolved organic carbon in a rewetted Welsh peatland and possible implications for water quality. Soil Use Manage. 2001, 17:106-112.
71. Ferrick M.G., Gatto L.W. Quantifying the effect of a freeze-thaw cycle on soil erosion: Laboratory experiments. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 2005, 30:1305-1326.
72. Findlay D.C., Colborne G.J.N., Cope D.W., Harrod T.R., Hogan D.V., Staines S.J. Soils and Their Use in South West England 1984, Lawes Agricultural Trust, Harpenden.
73. Fisher A., Neff R., Barron E.J. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment: Motivation and approach. Clim. Res. 2000, 14:153-159.
74. Folke C., Carpenter S., Walker B., Scheffer M., Elmqvist T., Gunderson L., Holling C.S. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2004, 35:557-581.
75. Fraser A.I., Harrod T.R., Haygarth P.M. The effect of rainfall intensity on soil erosion and particulate phosphorus transfer from arable soils. Water Sci. Technol. 1999, 39:41-45.
76. Frost C.A., Speirs R.B. Soil erosion from a single rainstorm over an area in East Lothian, Scotland. Soil Use Manage. 1996, 12:8-12.
77. Galloway J.N., Howarth R.W., Michaels A.F., Nixon S.W., Prospero J.M., Dentener F.J. Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets of the North Atlantic Ocean and its watershed. Biogeochemistry 1996, 35:3-25.
78. Galloway J.N., Townsend A.R., Erisman J.W., Bekunda M., Cai Z.C., Freney J.R., Martinelli L.A., Seitzinger S.P., Sutton M.A. Transformation of the nitrogen cycle: Recent trends, questions, and potential solutions. Science 2008, 320:889-892.
79. Granger S.J., Bol R., Anthony S., Owens P.N., White S.M., Haygarth P.M. Towards a holistic classification of diffuse agricultural water pollution from intensively managed grasslands on heavy soils. Adv. Agron. 2010, 105(105):83-115.
80. Greenland D.J., Rimmer D., Payne D. Determination of structural stability class of English and Welsh soils, using a water coherence test. J. Soil Sci. 1975, 26:294-303.
81. Guerra A. The effect of organic-matter content on soil-erosion in simulated rainfall experiments in W-Sussex, UK. Soil Use Manage. 1994, 10:60-64.
82. Gupta H.V., Wagener T., Liu Y.Q. Reconciling theory with observations: Elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation. Hydrol. Process. 2008, 22:3802-3813.
83. 2 flux in a grassland ecosystem. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2005, 11:322-334.
84. Harris G.L., Nicholls P.H., Bailey S.W., Howse K.R., Mason D.J. Factors influencing the loss of pesticides in drainage from a cracking clay soil. J. Hydrol. 1994, 159:235-253.
85. Harrison A.F., Taylor K., Scott A., Poskitt J., Benham D., Grace J., Chaplow J., Rowland P. Potential effects of climate change on DOC release from three different soil types on the Northern Pennines UK: Examination using field manipulation experiments. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2008, 14:687-702.
86. Hatfield R.G., Maher B.A., Pates J.M., Barker P.A. Sediment dynamics in an upland temperate catchment: Changing sediment sources, rates and deposition. J. Paleolimnol. 2008, 40(4):1143-1158.
87. Haygarth P.M., Jarvis S.C. Transfer of phosphorus from agricultural soils. Adv. Agron. 1999, 66:195-249.
88. Haygarth P.M., Warwick M.S., House W.A. Size distribution of colloidal molybdate reactive phosphorus in river waters and soil solution. Water Res. 1997, 31:439-448.
89. Haygarth P.M., Condron L.M., Heathwaite A.L., Turner B.L., Harris G.P. The phosphorus transfer continuum: Linking source to impact with an interdisciplinary and multi-scaled approach. Sci. Total Environ. 2005, 344:5-14.
90. Heckrath G., Brookes P.C., Poulton P.R., Goulding K.W.T. Phosphorus leaching from soils containing different phosphorus concentrations in the Broadbalk Experiment. J. Environ. Qual. 1995, 24:904-910.
91. Heppell C.M., Burt T.P., Williams R.J., Haria A.H. The influence of hydrological pathways on the transport of the herbicide, isoproturon, through an underdrained clay soil. Water Sci. Technol. 1999, 39:77-84.
92. Hesketh N., Brookes P.C. Development of an indicator for risk of phosphorus leaching 1998, 105-110. Antrim, North Ireland.
93. Hinzman L.D., Bettez N.D., Bolton W.R., Chapin F.S., Dyurgerov M.B., Fastie C.L., Griffith B., Hollister R.D., Hope A., Huntington H.P., Jensen A.M., Jia G.J., et al. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions. Clim. Chang. 2005, 72:251-298.
94. Hodge C.A.H., Burton R.G.O.B., Corbett W.M., Evans R., Seale R.S. Soils and Their Use in Eastern England. Bulletin No. 13 1984, Soil Survey of England and Wales, Harpenden.
95. Holden J., Chapman P.J., Labadz J.C. Artificial drainage of peatlands: Hydrological and hydrochemical process and wetland restoration. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2004, 28:95-123.
96. Holden J., Shotbolt L., Bonn A., Burt T.P., Chapman P.J., Dougill A.J., Fraser E.D.G., Hubacek K., Irvine B., Kirkby M.J., Reed M.S., Prell C., et al. Environmental change in moorland landscapes. Earth Sci. Rev. 2007, 82:75-100.
97. Holman I.P., Rounsevell M.D.A., Shackley S., Harrison P.A., Nicholls R.J., Berry P.M., Audsley E. A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Clim. Chang. 2005, 71:9-41.
98. Hooda P.S., Moynagh M., Svoboda I.F., Thurlow M., Stewart M., Thomson M., Anderson H.A. Soil and land use effects on phosphorus in six streams draining small agricultural catchments. Soil Use Manage. 1997, 13:196-204.
99. Hooda P.S., Edwards A.C., Anderson H.A., Miller A. A review of water quality concerns in livestock farming areas. Sci. Total Environ. 2000, 250:143-167.
100. Hulme M., Jenkins G., Lu X., Turnpenny J., Mitchell T., Jones R., Lowe J., Murphy J., Hassell D., Boorman P., McDonald R., Hill S. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report 2002, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK.
101. Imeson A.C. Heather burning and soil erosion on North Yorkshire moors. J. Appl. Ecol. 1971, 8:537-542.
102. Ineson P., Benham D.G., Poskitt J., Harrison A.F., Taylor K., Woods C. Effects of climate change on nitrogen dynamics in upland soils. 2. A soil warming study. Glob. Chang. Biol. 1998, 4:153-161.
103. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
104. IPCC Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 7-22. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
105. Jarvis M.G., Allen R.H., Fordham S.J., Hazelden J., Moffat A.J., Sturdy R.G. Soils and Their Use in South East England. Bulletin No. 15 1984, Soil Survey of England and Wales, Harpenden.
106. Jarvis R.A., Bendelow V.C., Bradley R.I., Carroll D.M., Furness R.R., Kilgour I.N.L., King S.J. Soils and their Use in Northern England. Bulletin No. 10 1984, Soil Survey of England and Wales, Harpenden.
107. Jarvis N.J., Villholth K.G., Ulen B. Modelling particle mobilization and leaching in macroporous soil. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 1999, 50:621-632.
108. Jenerette G.D., Lal R. Hydrologic sources of carbon cycling uncertainty throughout the terrestrial-aquatic continuum. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2005, 11:1873-1882.
109. Jenkins G., Parry M., Prior M. The Climate of the United Kingdon and Recent Trends 2007, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
110. 2 emissions from soil in response to global warming. Nature 1991, 351:304-306.
111. Johansen M.P., Hakonson T.E., Breshears D.D. Post-fire runoff and erosion from rainfall simulation: Contrasting forests with shrublands and grasslands. Hydrol. Process. 2001, 15:2953-2965.
112. Jones C., McConnell C., Coleman K., Cox P., Falloon P., Jenkinson D., Powlson D. Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2005, 11:154-166.
113. Kirkbride M.P., Reeves A.D. Soil-erosion caused by low-intensity rainfall in Angus, Scotland. Appl. Geogr. 1993, 13:299-311.
114. Kirkby M.J. Distance, time and scale in soil erosion processes. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 2010, 35:1621-1623.
115. Kretzschmar R., Borkovec M., Grolimund D., Elimelech M. Mobile subsurface colloids and their role in contaminant transport. Adv. Agron. 1999, 66:121-193.
116. Krueger, T., Page, T., Hubacek, K., and Hiscock, K. (in press). The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling. Environ. Modell. Softw.
117. Krueger T., Freer J., Quinton J.N., Macleod C.J.A. Processes affecting transfer of sediment and colloids, with associated phosphorus, from intensively farmed grasslands: A critical note on modelling of phosphorus transfers. Hydrol. Process. 2007, 21:557-562.
118. Laegdsmand M., Villholth K.G., Ullum M., Jensen K.H. Processes of colloid mobilization and transport in macroporous soil monoliths. Geoderma 1999, 93:33-59.
119. Lake I.R., Bentham G., Kovats R.S., Nichols G.L. Effects of weather and river flow on cryptosporidiosis. J. Water Health 2005, 3:469-474.
120. Loeb R., Lamers L.P.M., Roelofs J.G.M. Effects of winter versus summer flooding and subsequent desiccation on soil chemistry in a riverine hay meadow. Geoderma 2008, 145:84-90.
121. Luo Y.Q., Gerten D., Le Maire G., Parton W.J., Weng E.S., Zhou X.H., Keough C., Beier C., Ciais P., Cramer W., Dukes J.S., Emmett B., et al. Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2008, 14:1986-1999.
122. Luo Y.Q., Melillo J., Niu S.L., Beier C., Clark J.S., Classen A.T., Davidson E., Dukes J.S., Evans R.D., Field C.B., Czimczik C.I., Keller M., et al. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2011, 17:843-854.
123. Macleod C.J.A., Haygarth P.M. Integrating water and agricultural management under climate change. Sci. Total Environ. 2010, 408:5619-5622.
124. Macleod C.J.A., Blackstock K.L., Haygarth P.M. Mechanisms to improve integrative research at the science-policy interface for sustainable catchment management. Ecol. Soc. 2008, 13(2).
125. Mallawatantri A.P., Mulla D.J. Uncertainties in leaching risk assessments due to field averaged transfer function parameters. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 1996, 60:722-726.
126. Maracchi G., Sirotenko O., Bindi M. Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe 2002, 117-135. Ljubljana, Slovenia.
127. Marchand F.L., Kockelbergh F., van de Vijver B., Beyens L., Nijs I. Are heat and cold resistance of arctic species affected by successive extreme temperature events?. New Phytol. 2006, 170:291-300.
128. Matzner E., Borken W. Do freeze-thaw events enhance C and N losses from soils of different ecosystems? A review. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 2008, 59:274-284.
129. McHugh M., Harrod T., Morgan R. The extent of soil erosion in upland England and Wales. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms 2002, 27:99-107.
130. Misselbrook T.H., Pain B.F., Stone A.C., Scholefield D. Nutrient run-off following application of livestock wastes to grassland. Environ. Pollut. 1995, 88:51-56.
131. Monteith D.T., Stoddard J.L., Evans C.D., de Wit H.A., Forsius M., Hogasen T., Wilander A., Skjelkvale B.L., Jeffries D.S., Vuorenmaa J., Keller B., Kopacek J., et al. Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature 2007, 450:537-540.
132. Morgan R.P.C. Soil erosion and conservation 2005, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford. 3rd edn.
133. Morgan M.G., Pitelka L.F., Shevlaikova E. Elicitation of expert judgement of climat change impacts on forest ecosystems. Clim. Chang. 2001, 49:279-307.
134. Mulholland P.J., Helton A.M., Poole G.C., Hall R.O., Hamilton S.K., Peterson B.J., Tank J.L., Ashkenas L.R., Cooper L.W., Dahm C.N., Dodds W.K., Findlay S.E.G., et al. Stream denitrification across biomes and its response to anthropogenic nitrate loading. Nature 2008, 452:202-205.
135. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Jenkins G.J., Boorman P.M., Booth B.B.B., Brown C.C., Clark R.T., Collins M., Harris G.R., Kendon E.J., Betts R.A., Brown S.J., et al. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections 2009, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
136. Nanney R.D., Fryrear D.W., Zobeck T.M. Wind erosion prediction and control. Water Sci. Technol. 1993, 28:519-527.
137. Nash D., Hannah M., Halliwell D., Murdoch C. Factors affecting phosphorus export from a pasture-based grazing system. J. Environ. Qual. 2000, 29:1160-1166.
138. Nearing M.A., Pruski F.F., O'Neal M.R. Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review. J. Soil Water Conserv. 2004, 59:43-50.
139. Nearing M.A., Jetten V., Baffaut C., Cerdan O., Couturier A., Hernandez M., Le Bissonnais Y., Nichols M.H., Nunes J.P., Renschler C.S. Modeling response of soil erosion and runoff to changes in precipitation and cover. Catena 2005, 61:131-154.
140. Oades J.M. Soil organic-matter and structural stability-Mechanisms and implications for management. Plant Soil 1984, 76:319-337.
141. Olesen J.E., Bindi M. Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur. J. Agron. 2002, 16:239-262.
142. Oliver D.M., Clegg C.D., Haygarth P.M., Heathwaite A.L. Assessing the potential for pathogen transfer from grassland soils to surface waters. Adv. Agron. 2005, 85:125-180.
143. Oppenheimer M., O'Neill B.C., Webster M., Agrawala S. The limits of consensus. Science 2007, 317:1505-1506.
144. O'Reilly C.M., Alin S.R., Plisnier P.D., Cohen A.S., McKee B.A. Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa. Nature 2003, 424:766-768.
145. Orr H.G., Wilby R.L., Hedger M.M., Brown I. Climate change in the uplands: A UK perspective on safeguarding regulatory ecosystem services. Clim. Res. 2008, 37:77-98.
146. Park J.H., Mitchell M.J., Driscoll C.T. Winter-time climatic control on dissolved organic carbon export and surface water chemistry in an Adirondack forested watershed. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2005, 39:6993-6998.
147. Parkes M.E., Campbell J., Vinten A.J.A. Practice to avoid contamination of drainflow and runoff from slurry spreading in spring. Soil Use Manage. 1997, 13:36-42.
148. Patz J.A. Public health risk assessment linked to climatic and ecological change. Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess. 2001, 7:1317-1327.
149. Pickett S.T.A., Kolasa J., Jones C.G. Ecological Understanding: The Nature of Theory and the Theory of Nature 2007, Academic Press, Burlington, USA. 2nd edn.
150. Polizzotto M.L., Kocar B.D., Benner S.G., Sampson M., Fendorf S. Near-surface wetland sediments as a source of arsenic release to ground water in Asia. Nature 2008, 454:505-508.
151. Preedy N., McTiernan K.B., Matthews R., Heathwaite L., Haygarth P.M. Rapid incidental phosphorus transfers from grassland. J. Environ. Qual. 2001, 30:2105-2112.
152. Pullin A.S., Knight T.M. Effectiveness in conservation practice: Pointers from medicine and public health. Conserv. Biol. 2001, 15:50-54.
153. Pullin A.S., Knight T.M. Doing more good than harm-Building an evidence-base for conservation and environmental management. Biol. Conserv. 2009, 142:931-934.
154. Pullin A.S., Stewart G.B. Guidelines for systematic review in conservation and environmental management. Conserv. Biol. 2006, 20:1647-1656.
155. Quinton J.N., Catt J.A. Enrichment of heavy metals in sediment resulting from soil erosion on agricultural fields. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2007, 41:3495-3500.
156. Quinton J.N., Catt J.A., Hess T.M. The selective removal of phosphorus from soil: Is event size important?. J. Environ. Qual. 2001, 30:538-545.
157. Randall G.W., Mulla D.J. Nitrate nitrogen in surface waters as influenced by climatic conditions and agricultural practices. J. Environ. Qual. 2001, 30:337-344.
158. Rivington M., Matthews K.B., Bellocchi G., Buchan K., Stockle C.O., Donatelli M. An integrated assessment approach to conduct analyses of climate change impacts on whole-farm systems. Environ. Model. Software 2007, 22:202-210.
159. Robinson D.A. Agricultural practice, climate change and the soil erosion hazard in parts of southeast England. Appl. Geogr. 1999, 19:13-27.
160. Robinson D.A., Boardman J. Cultivation practice, sowing season and soil-erosion on the South Downs, England-A preliminary-study. J. Agric. Sci. 1988, 110:169-177.
161. Rohr J.R., Schotthoefer A.M., Raffel T.R., Carrick H.J., Halstead N., Hoverman J.T., Johnson C.M., Johnson L.B., Lieske C., Piwoni M.D., Schoff P.K., Beasley V.R. Agrochemicals increase trematode infections in a declining amphibian species. Nature 2008, 455:1235-1239.
162. Rothwell J.J., Evans M.G., Daniels S.A., Allott T.E.H. Peat soils as a source of lead contamination to upland fluvial systems. Environ. Pollut. 2008, 153:582-589.
163. Rounsevell M.D.A., Reay D.S. Land use and climate change in the UK. Land Use Policy 2009, 26:160-169.
164. Russell M.A., Walling D.E., Webb B.W., Bearne R. The composition of nutrient fluxes from contrasting UK river basins. Hydrol. Process. 1998, 12:1461-1482.
165. Scheffer M., Carpenter S., Foley J.A., Folke C., Walker B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 2001, 413:591-596.
166. Scholefield D., Tyson K.C., Garwood E.A., Armstrong A.C., Hawkins J., Stone A.C. Nitrate leaching from grazed grassland lysimeters-Effects of fertilizer input, field drainage, age of sward and patterns of weather. J. Soil Sci. 1993, 44:601-613.
167. Schroter D., Cramer W., Leemans R., Prentice I.C., Araujo M.B., Arnell N.W., Bondeau A., Bugmann H., Carter T.R., Gracia C.A., de la Vega-Leinert A.C., Erhard M., et al. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 2005, 310:1333-1337.
168. Sharma P.P., Gupta S.C., Foster G.R. Raindrop-induced soil detachment and sediment transport from interrill areas. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 1995, 59:727-734.
169. Sharpley A.N. Depth of surface soil-runoff interaction as affected by rainfall, soil slope, and management. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 1985, 49:1010-1015.
170. Sharpley A.N. Availability of residual phosphorus in manured soils. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 1996, 60:1459-1466.
171. Sharpley A.N. Rainfall frequency and nitrogen and phosphorus runoff from soil amended with poultry litter. J. Environ. Qual. 1997, 26:1127-1132.
172. Shepherd M.A., Harrison R., Webb J. Managing soil organic matter-Implications for soil structure on organic farms. Soil Use Manage. 2002, 18:284-292.
173. Sierra J. Temperature and soil moisture dependence of N mineralization in intact soil cores. Soil Biol. Biochem. 1997, 29:1557-1563.
174. Slattery M.C., Bryan R.B. Laboratory experiments on surface seal development and its effect on interrill erosion processes. J. Soil Sci. 1992, 43:517-529.
175. Smith D.D., Wischmeier W.W. Factors affecting sheet and rill erosion. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 1957, 38:889-896.
176. Smith J., Smith P., Wattenbach M., Zaehle S., Hiederer R., Jones R.J.A., Montanarella L., Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., Ewert F. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2005, 11:2141-2152.
177. Sowerby A., Emmett B.A., Tietema A., Beier C. Contrasting effects of repeated summer drought on soil carbon efflux in hydric and mesic heathland soils. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2008, 14:2388-2404.
178. Speirs R.B., Frost C.A. The increasing incidence of accelerated soil water erosion on arable land in the east of Scotland. Res. Dev. Agric. 1985, 2:161-167.
179. Sterner R.W., Elser J.J. Ecological Stoichiometry: The Biology of Elements from Molecules to the Biosphere 2002, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
180. Stutter M.I., Lumsdon D.G., Cooper R.J. Temperature and soil moisture effects on dissolved organic matter release from a moorland Podzol O horizon under field and controlled laboratory conditions. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 2007, 58:1007-1016.
181. Tabbara H. Phosphorus loss to runoff water twenty-four hours after application of liquid swine manure or fertilizer. J. Environ. Qual. 2003, 32:1044-1052.
182. Tallis J.H. Studies on southern Pennine peats 5. Direct observations on peat erosion and peat hydrology at Featherbed Moss, Derbyshire. J. Ecol. 1973, 61:1-22.
183. Tallis J.H. Mass movement and erosion of a southern Pennine blanket peat. J. Ecol. 1985, 73:283-315.
184. The New Oxford Dictionary of English 1998, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
185. Thodsen H., Hasholt B., Kjarsgaard J.H. The influence of climate change on suspended sediment transport in Danish rivers. Hydrol. Process. 2008, 22:764-774.
186. Tipping E., Woof C., Rigg E., Harrison A.F., Ineson P., Taylor K., Benham D., Poskitt J., Rowland A.P., Bol R., Harkness D.D. Climatic influences on the leaching of dissolved organic matter from upland UK Moorland soils, investigated by a field manipulation experiment. Environ. Int. 1999, 25:83-95.
187. Tisdall J.M., Oades J.M. Organic matter and water-stable aggregates in soils. J. Soil Sci. 1982, 33:141-163.
188. Trudgill S.T., Burt T.P., Heathwaite A.L., Arkell B.P. Soil nitrate sources and nitrate leaching losses, Slapton, South Devon. Soil Use Manage. 1991, 7:200-206.
189. Turner B.L., Haygarth P.M. Phosphorus solubilization in rewetted soils. Nature 2001, 411:258.
190. Vinten A.J.A., Donnelly S., Ball B.C., Crawford C.E., Ritchie R.M., Parker J.P. A field trial to evaluate the pollution potential to ground and surface waters from woodchip corrals for overwintering livestock outdoors. Soil Use Manage. 2006, 22:82-94.
191. Walther G.R., Post E., Convey P., Menzel A., Parmesan C., Beebee T.J.C., Fromentin J.M., Hoegh-Guldberg O., Bairlein F. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 2002, 416:389-395.
192. Watson A., Evans R. Water erosion of arable fields in north-east Scotland, 1985-2007. Scott. Geogr. J. 2007, 123:107-121.
193. Webb J., Anthony S.G., Brown L., Lyons-Visser H., Ross C., Cottrill B., Johnson P., Scholefield D. The impact of increasing the length of the cattle grazing season on emissions of ammonia and nitrous oxide and on nitrate leaching in England and Wales. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2005, 105:307-321.
194. Wilby R.L., Orr H.G., Hedger M., Forrow D., Blackmore M. Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK. Environ. Int. 2006, 32:1043-1055.
195. Withers P.J.A., Edwards A.C., Foy R.H. Phosphorus cycling in UK agriculture and implications for phosphorus loss from soil. Soil Use Manage. 2001, 17:139-149.
196. Worrall F., Burt T. Predicting the future DOC flux from upland peat catchments. J. Hydrol. 2005, 300:126-139.
197. Worrall F., Burt T.P. Trends in DOC concentration in Great Britain. J. Hydrol. 2007, 346:81-92.
198. Worrall F., Burt T.P., Jaeban R.Y., Warburton J., Shedden R. Release of dissolved organic carbon from upland peat. Hydrol. Process. 2002, 16:3487-3504.
199. 2 , and precipitation changes. Ecol. Appl. 2008, 18:453-466.