Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 138, Issue 664, 2012, Pages 755-768

  Kober, K ^a   Craig, G C ^a,b   Keil, C ^b   Dornbrack A ^a  

^a GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTER DLR   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Blending; Ensemble prediction; Forecast calibration; Short range forecasting

Indexed keywords

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION; DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION; EXTRAPOLATION TECHNIQUES; HIGH RESOLUTION; LAGRANGIAN METHODS; LEAD TIME; NOWCAST; NOWCASTING; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION; QUALITY MEASURES; RADAR REFLECTIVITIES; STATISTICS METHOD; WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS;

LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS; RADAR; REFLECTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

BLENDING;

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; LAGRANGIAN ANALYSIS; NOWCASTING; NUMERICAL METHOD; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84857286935     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.939     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Anandan P. 1989. A computational framework and an algorithm for the measurement of visual motion. Int. J. Comput. Vision 2: 283-310.
2. Andersson T, Ivarsson KI. 1991. A model for probability nowcasts of accumulated precipitation using radar. J. Appl. Meteorol. 30: 135-141.
3. Atger F. 2003. Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: consequences for calibration. Mon. Weather Rev. 131: 1509-1523.
4. Baldauf M, Seifert A, Förstner J, Majewski D, Rauschendorfer M. 2011. Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: description and sensitivities. Mon. Weather Rev. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1.
5. Barron J, Fleet D, Beauchemin S. 1994. Performance of optical flow techniques. Int. J. Comput. Vision 12: 43-77.
6. Bowler N, Pierce C, Seed A. 2006. STEPS: a probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 2127-2155.
7. Brier G. 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather Rev. 78: 1-3.
8. Bright DR, Mullen SL. 2002. Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation during the southwest monsoon. Weather and Forecasting 17: 1080-1100.
9. Buizza R, Hollingsworth A, Lalaurette F, Ghelli A. 1999. Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using ECMWF ensemble prediction systems. Weather and Forecasting 14: 168-189.
10. Craig GC, Keil C, Leuenberger D. 2011. Constraints on the impact of radar rainfall data assimilation on forecasts of cumulus convection. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. DOI: 10.1002/qj.929.
11. Dixon M, Wiener G. 1993. TITAN: Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting-a radar-based methodology. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 10: 785-797.
12. Dixon M, Li Z, Lean H, Roberts N, Ballard S. 2009. Impact of data assimilation on forecasting convection over the United Kingdom using a high-resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model. Mon. Weather Rev. 137: 1562-1584.
13. Done J, Davis CA, Weisman M. 2004. The next generation of NWP: explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Atmos. Sci. Let. 5: 110-117.
14. Done JM, Craig GC, Gray SL, Clark PA, Gray MEB. 2006. Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: Importance of convective equilibrium. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 737-756.
15. Fritsch JM, Carbone RE. 2004. Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85: 955-965.
16. Gebhardt C, Theis S, Paulat M, Bouallegue ZB. 2011. Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries. Atm. Res. 100: 168-177.
17. Germann U, Zawadzki I. 2002. Scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part I: Description of the methodology. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 2859-2873.
18. Germann U, Zawadzki I. 2004. Scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part II: Probability forecasts. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43: 74-89.
19. Germann U, Berenguer M, Sempere-Torres D, Zappa M. 2009. REAL-Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135: 445-456.
20. Golding BW. 1998. Nimrod: A system for generating automated very short range forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 5: 1-16.
21. Golding BW. 2000. Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. J. Hydrology 239: 286-305.
22. Hamill TM, Hagedorn R, Whitaker JS. 2008. Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: precipitation. Mon. Weather Rev. 136: 2620-2632.
23. Hohenegger C, Schär C. 2007. Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 4467-4478.
24. Keil C, Craig GC. 2007. A displacement-based error measure applied in a regional ensemble forecasting system. Mon. Weather Rev. 135: 3248-3259.
25. Kilambi A, Zawadzki I. 2005. 'An evaluation of ensembles based upon MAPLE precipitation nowcasts and NWP precipitation forecasts'. In 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 24-29 Oct 2005; 3 pp.
26. Kober K, Tafferner A. 2009. Tracking and nowcasting of convective cells using remote sensing data from radar and satellite. Meteorol. Z. 1: 75-84.
27. Lean HW, Clark PA, Dixon M, Roberts NM, Fitch A, Forbes R, Halliwell C. 2008. Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom. Mon. Weather Rev. 136: 3408-3424.
28. Lewis JM. 2005. Roots of ensemble forecasting. Mon. Weather Rev. 133: 1865-1885.
29. Li L, Schmid W, Joss J. 1995. Nowcasting of motion and growth of precipitation with radar over a complex orography. J. Appl. Meteorol. 34: 1286-1300.
30. Lin C, Vasic S, Kilambi A, Turner B, Zawadzki I. 2005. Precipitation forecast skill of numerical weather prediction models and radar nowcasts. Geophys. Res. Letters 32: 1-4.
31. Marsigli C, Montani A, Paccagnella T. 2008. 'The COSMO-SREPS ensemble for the short-range: system analysis and verification on the MAP D-PHASE DOP'. In Joint MAP D-PHASE Scientific Meeting-COST 731 Mid-term Seminar, Bologna, Italy, 19-22 May 2008; pp 9-14.
32. Megenhardt DC, Mueller C, Trier S, Ahijevych D, Rehak N. 2004. 'NCWF-2 probabilistic nowcasts'. In 11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Hyannis, Massachusetts, 4-8 Oct 2004; 23 pp.
33. Mittermaier MP. 2007. Improving short-range high-resolution model precipitation forecast skill using time-lagged ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 1487-1500.
34. Murphy AH. 1973. A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteorol. 12: 595-600.
35. Murphy AH, Winkler RL. 1987. A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Weather Rev. 115: 1330-1338.
36. Pierce CE, Ebert E, Seed AW, Sleigh M, Collier CG, Fox NI, Donaldson N, Wilson JW, Roberts R, Mueller CK. 2004. The nowcasting of precipitation during Sydney 2000: an appraisal of the QPF algorithms. Weather and Forecasting 19: 7-21.
37. Pinto J, Mueller C, Weygandt S, Ahijevych D, Rehak N, Megenhardt D. 2006. 'Fusion observation- and model-based probability forecasts for the short term prediction of convection'. In 12th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, Georgia, 30 Jan-2 Feb 2006; 5 pp.
38. Raftery AE, Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F, Polakowski M. 2005. Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev. 133: 1155-1174.
39. Roebber P, Schultz DM, Colle BA, Stensrud DJ. 2004. Toward improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling systems in operation. Weather and Forecasting 19: 936-949.
40. Rossa A, Haase G, Keil C, Alberoni P, Ballard S, Bech J, Germann U, Pfeifer M, Salonen K. 2010. Propagation of uncertainty from observing systems into NWP: COST-731 Working Group 1. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 11: 145-152.
41. Schmid W, Mecklenburg S, Joss J. 2000. Short-term risk forecasts of severe weather. Phys. Chem. Earth Part B 25: 1335-1338.
42. Schwartz CS, Kain JS, Weiss SJ, Xue M, Bright DR, Kong F, Thomas KW, Levit JJ, Coniglio MC, Wandishin MS. 2010. Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small scale ensemble membership. Weather and Forecasting 25: 263-280.
43. Seifert A, Beheng KD. 2006. A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part 2: Maritime vs. continental deep convective storms. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 92 67-82.
44. Sokol Z, Rezacova D. 2006. Assimilation of radar reflectivity into the LM COSMO model with a high horizontal resolution. Meteorol. Appl. 13: 317-330.
45. Stensrud DJ, Bao JW, Warner TT. 2000. Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 2077-2107.
46. Stephan K, Klink S, Schraff C. 2008. Assimilation of radar-derived rain rates into the convective-scale model COSMO-DE at DWD. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 1315-1326.
47. Sugihara K, Inagaki H. 1995. Why is the 3D Delaunay triangulation difficult to construct? Inform. Process. Lett. 54: 275-280.
48. Theis S, Hense A, Damrath U. 2005. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model: a pragmatic approach. Meteorol. Appl. 12: 257-268.
49. Weusthoff T, Ament F, Arpagaus M, Rotach M. 2010. Assessing the benefits of convection-permitting models by neighborhood verification: Examples from MAP D-PHASE. Mon. Weather Rev. 138: 3418-3433.
50. Wilks D. 2006. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press: San Diego.
51. Wilson J, Xu M. 2006. 'Experiments in blending radar echo extrapolation and NWP for nowcasting convective storms'. In 4th Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology, Barcelona, Spain, 18-22 Sep 2006; 4 pp.
52. Wilson JW, Crook NA, Mueller CK, Sun J, Dixon M. 1998. Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79: 2079-2099.
53. Wilson JW, Ebert EE, Sleigh M, Pierce CE, Saxen TR, Roberts RD, Mueller CK, Seed A. 2004. Sydney 2000 forecast demonstration project: convective storm nowcasting. Weather and Forecasting 19: 131-150.
54. Wong W, Yeung L, Wang Y, Chen M. 2009. 'Towards the blending of NWP with nowcast: Operation Experience in B08FDP'. In World Weather Research Program Symposium on Nowcasting, Whistler, BC, Canada, 30 Aug-4 Sep 2009; 14 pp.
55. Zhu Y, Iyengar G, Toth Z, Traclon S, Marchok T. 1996. 'Objective evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system'. In 15th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, Virginia, 19-23 Aug 1996; J79-J82.
56. Zimmer M, Craig GC, Wernli H, Keil C. 2011. Classification of precipitation events with a convective response time-scale. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L05 802. DOI:10.1029/2010GL046 199.
57. Zinner T, Mannstein H, Tafferner A. 2008. Cb-TRAM: Tracking and monitoring severe convection from onset over rapid development to mature phase using multi-channel Meteosat-8 SEVIRI data. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 101: 191-210.