Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China

Energy Policy

Volumn 43, Issue , 2012, Pages 17-29

  Huo, Hong ^a   Wang, Michael ^b  

^a TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

China; Vehicle projection; Vehicle stock

Indexed keywords

CAR OWNERSHIP; CHINA; INPUT DATAS; KEY FACTORS; KEY MODELS; LIGHT-DUTY; MODEL PARAMETERS; PASSENGER VEHICLES; POLICY SCENARIO; PURCHASE PRICE; SCRAPPED VEHICLES;

FUEL ECONOMY; SALES; VEHICLES;

FLEET OPERATIONS;

CAR OWNERSHIP; COMPARATIVE STUDY; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; PARAMETERIZATION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; TRANSPORT VEHICLE;

CHINA;

EID: 84857060659     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.063     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics of Australia, 2009. Australian Transport Statistics Yearbook 2009. BITRE, Canberra ACT.
2. Button K., Ngoe N., Hine J. Modeling vehicle ownership and use in low income countries. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 1993, 27(1):51-67.
3. China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Chinese Automotive Manufacturers Association, 1991, 1993-2010. China Automotive Industry Yearbooks (various versions).
4. Dargay J.M. The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry. Transportation Research Part A 2001, 35:807-821.
5. Dargay J.M., Gately D. Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015. Transportation Research Part A 1999, 33(2):101-138.
6. Davis, C.S., Diegel, W.S., Boundy, R.G., 2009. Transportation Energy Data Book, 28th ed. ORNL-6984, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
7. De Jong G., Fox J., Daly A., Pieters M., Smit R. Comparison of car ownership models. Transport Reviews 2004, 24(4):379-408.
8. De Wolff P. The demand for passenger cars in the United States. Econometrica 1938, 6(2):113-129.
9. Development Research Center of the State Council, 2010. China: Accelerating Structure Reform, Promoting the Shift in Development Pattern. Background Report of the 2010 China Development Forum.
10. Dyckman T.R. An aggregate-demand model for automobiles. The Journal of Business 1965, 38(3):252-266.
11. Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission of China, 2009. Case study of low-carbon development in China up to 2050: the fourteenth "2050 China Energy and CO2 Emission Report" by the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, Energy Research Institute at the National Development and Reform Commission of China, and Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology at Tsinghua University. Science Press, Beijing.
12. European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, 2003-2009. EU energy and transport in figures (various issues).
13. 2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications. Energy Policy 2005, 33:1499-1507.
14. 2 emissions through 2050. Transportation Research Record 2007, 2038:69-77.
15. Huo, H., Zhang, Q., He, K., Yao, Z., Wang, M., this issue-a. Vehicle-use intensity in China: current status and future trend. Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.019.
16. Huo, H., He, K., Wang, M., Yao, Z., this issue-b. Vehicle technologies, fuel-economy policies, and fuel-consumption rates of Chinese vehicles. Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.064.
17. Huo, H., Wang, M., Zhang, X., He, K., Gong, H., Jiang, K., Jin, Y., Shi, Y., Yu, X. this issue-c. Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: policy options and impacts. Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.065.
18. Ingram, G.K., Liu, Z., 1997. Motorization and Road Provision in Countries and Cities. Policy Research Working Paper 1842, World Bank., accessed Dec 2006. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANTRANSPORT/Resources/wps1842.pdf.
19. Institute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelberg, 2010. TREMOD-Transport Emission Model., accessed July 2010. http://www.ifeu.de/english/index.php?bereich=ver&seite=projekt_tremod.
20. Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2003. Projection of Major Socio-Economic Indexes in China by 2020., accessed July 2010. http://www.in.ah.cn/analyses/expert/cn030036.htm.
21. International Energy Agency, 2009. Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) Model., accessed Dec. 2009. http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/keyresult.asp?keyword_id=4121.
22. Japanese Automobile Inspection and Registration Association, 2006., accessed Jan. 2006. http://www.aira.or.jp/.
23. Jørgensen F., Wentzel-Larsen T. Forecasting car holding, scrappage and new car purchase in Norway. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 1990, 24(2):139-156.
24. 2 emissions from cars in Europe: a partial equilibrium analysis. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 1995, 29(1):53-70.
25. Korea National Statistical Office Korea Statistical Yearbook 2004 2005, Statistical Publication Division, Seoul.
26. Li, S., Liu, Y., Xu, Z., He, J., 2010. Prospective of Economic Growth from the Twelfth Five-Year to 2030 in China. Background Report of the 2010 China Development Forum., accessed May. 2000. http://www.cdrf.org.cn/data/view.php?aid=1518.
27. Lu Y. The Overview of China's Sustainable Development 2007, Science Press, Beijing.
28. Ministry of Commerce of China, 2006. Mandatory Standards for Motor Vehicle Scrappage (draft for comments)., accessed July 2010. http://scjss.mofcom.gov.cn.
29. Ministry of Commerce of China, Ministry of Finance of China, Ministry of Environment Protection of China, 2010. An Announcement for Extending the Program of "Replace Old Automobiles for New Ones.", accessed July 2010. http://scjss.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/cx/201006/20100606987758.html?3825783253=914838227.
30. Ministry of Commerce of China, Ministry of Finance of China, Publicity Department of CPC, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, Ministry of Public Security of China, Ministry of Environment Protection of China, Ministry of Transport of China, State Administration for Industry & Commerce of China, State Administration for Industry & Commerce of China, 2009. Implementation Measures to Replace Old Automobiles for New Ones., accessed July 2010. http://scjss.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/cx/200907/20090706396946.html?3635073237=914838227.
31. Ministry of Communications of China, 2004. Plan of National Highway Nets of China., accessed June 2010. http://www.moc.gov.cn/zhuzhan/zhengcejiedu/rediangongzuo_JD/guogaowangMMJD/zhengcefagui/200912/P020091208574434660610.doc.
32. Ministry of Railways of China, revised 2008. Mid- and Long-Term Development Plan of Railway Nets of China., accessed June 2010. http://www.china-mor.gov.cn/tllwjs/tlwgh_6.html.
33. Ng, W.S., Schipper, L., 2006. China motorization trends: policy options in a world of transport challenges. Growing in the Greenhouse: Protecting the Climate by Putting Development First. World Resource Institute, Washington, D.C. (Chapter 4).
34. Ou X., Zhang X., Chang S. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions. Energy Policy 2010, 38:3943-3956.
35. Romilly P., Song H., Liu X. Modeling and forecasting car ownership in Britain: a co-integration and general to specific approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 1998, 32(2):165-185.
36. Singh, M., Vyas, A., Steiner, E., 2003. VISION Model: Description of Model Used to Estimate the Impact of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2050. Technical Report ANL/ESD/04-1, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois.
37. Souma W. Universal structure of the personal income distribution. Fractals 2001, 9:463-470.
38. State Statistical Bureau of China Statistical Yearbook of China (various issues) 2005-2010, China Statistics Press, Beijing, China.
39. Statistics Bureau of Japan, Director-General for Policy Planning & Statistical Research and Training Institute, 2007. Japan Statistical Yearbook 2007., accessed June 2010. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/.
40. Takita K. The scrappage of automobiles in Japan. St. Andrew's University Economic and Business Review 2001, 42(4):123-153. in Japanese.
41. United Nations Development Programme, 2008. Human Development Report 2007-2008., accessed July 2010. http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/.
42. U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2010. Annual Energy Outlook 2010. DOE/EIA-0383., accessed May 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/.
43. U.S. Federal Highway Administration, 1993-2009. Highway Statistics (various issues)., accessed May 2010. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/.
44. U.S. House of Representatives, 2009. Fact Sheet: Cash for Clunkers., accessed July 2010. http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090505/cashforclunkers.pdf.
45. 2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector. Energy Conversion and Management 2007, 48:2110-2118.
46. Wang M. China's modernization from 1980 to 2050: retrospective and prospective-from an economist's perspective. Contemporary China History Studies 2004, 11(5):4-12. (in Chinese).
47. Wang, M., He, D., 2000. The effect of growth of vehicle population and its oil consumption on CO2 emission in China in the future 30 years. Conference for Background of Vehicular Fuel Economy in China, Beijing, December 20.
48. Wang, M., Huo, H., Johnson, L., He, D., 2006. Projection of Chinese Motor Vehicle Growth, Oil Demand, and CO2 Emissions through 2050. Technical Report ANL/ESD/06-6, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois.
49. Wang Y., Teter J., Sperling D. China's soaring vehicle population: even greater than forecasted?. Energy Policy 2011, 39:3296-3306.
50. Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2010., accessed June 2010. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrappage_program.
51. Yan X., Crookes R.J. Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector. Energy Policy 2009, 37:658-668.
52. Yang, F., Yu, L., Song, G., 2003. Modeling Dynamic Vehicle Age Distribution in Beijing. 2003 Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 0-7803-8125-4/03.
53. Zachariadis T., Samaras Z., Zierock K. Dynamic modeling of vehicle populations: an engineering approach for emissions calculations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1995, 50:135-149.