China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

Energy Policy

Volumn 39, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 3296-3306

  Wang, Yunshi ^a   Teter, Jacob ^a   Sperling, Daniel ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

China; Transport oil demand; Vehicle projection

Indexed keywords

CARBON EMISSIONS; CHINA; CHINESE ECONOMY; GROWTH PATTERNS; INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY; OIL DEMAND; POLICY INTERVENTION; VEHICLE FLEETS;

VEHICLES;

FLEET OPERATIONS;

AUTOMOBILE; CARBON EMISSION; DEMAND ANALYSIS; ENERGY USE; FORECASTING METHOD; GROWTH RATE; OIL SUPPLY;

CHINA;

EID: 79955916828     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.020     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Beijing Morning Daily, 2010. Beijing's motor vehicles are the most tired vehicles on Earth, August 24. Available from: 〈, (accessed 10.7.2010). (in Chinese). http://auto.ce.cn/ctzh/hyxw/201008/24/t20100824_20485330.shtml.
2. Chamon M., Mauro P., Okawa Y. Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants. Economic Policy 2008, 23(54):243-296.
3. Chen S., Ravallion M. The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty 2008, The World Bank, August 26, 2008.
4. China Association of Automotive Manufacturers, 2010, 2011. 〈. (accessed 03.1.2011). http://www.auto-stats.org.cn/.
5. China Automotive Technology and Research Center and China Association of Automotive Manufacturers, China Automotive Industry Yearbook 2008. Beijing.
6. Cline, William R., Williamson, John., 2010a. Notes on Equilibrium Exchange Rates: January 2010. Petersen Institute for International Economics. Policy Brief number Pb 10-2. Washington, DC.
7. Cline, William R., Williamson, John., 2010b. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates: May 2010. Petersen Institute for International Economics. Policy Brief number pb 10-15. Washington, DC.
8. Committee of Research on National Energy Comprehensive Strategy and Policy of China (RNECSPC). 2004. China's Energy Development Strategy and Policy Research. Economic Science Press. Chen Q. (Ed.), 2004 (in Chinese).
9. Dargay J.M., Gately D. Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015. Transportation Research Part A 1999, 33(2):101-138.
10. Dargay, J.M, Gately, D., Sommer, M., 2007. Vehicle ownership and income growth, worldwide: 1960-2030, The Energy Journal, October 1, 2007.
11. Dargay, J.M., Gately, D. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions. Energy Policy 38 (10), 6261-6277.
12. European Commission, 2009. Eurostat. Published by the statistical office of the European Commission. Available from: 〈. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/.
13. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2008. International Energy Outlook 2008. United States Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
14. ExxonMobile, 2009. Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030. Available at: http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news_pub_eo_2009.pdf.
15. Ford Motor Company, 2010. Model T facts. Available from: 〈. (accessed 08.11.2010. http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=858.
16. Fridley, D.G., Aden, N., Sinton, J., Zhou, N., Ranganathan, M., Lewis, J., Lin, J., 2006. China's Energy Future to 2020. China Energy Group, Environmental Energy Technologies Division. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; LBNL 58664.
17. German National Statistics Office (Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland), 2009. Available from: 〈. http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Navigation/Homepage__NT.psml.
18. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. Available from: 〈. Accessed August 11, 2010. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/.
19. International Monetary Fund, 2005. World Economic Outlook 2005. Washington, DC. Available from: 〈. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_7.csv.
20. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, 2010. World Motor Vehicle Production by Country and Type. Available from: 〈 Available from: 〈. Accessed August 11, 2010. http://oica.net/category/about-us/.
21. IPEADATA, (2010). Presidencia Da Republica-Secretaria de Assuntons Estrategicos. Available from: 〈. http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/ipeaweb.dll/ipeadata?655332812.
22. Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., 2009. Motor Vehicle Statistics of Japan 2009. Available from: 〈. http://www.jama-english.jp/publications/MVS2009.pdf.
23. Kobos P., Erickson J., Drennen T. Scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth. Contemporary Economic Policy 2003, 21(2):200-217.
24. Lee K., Ni S. On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: A study using industry level data. Journal of Monetary Economics 2002, 49(4):823-852.
25. Mahajan V., Muller E., Bass F.M. New product diffusion models in marketing: A review and directions for research. Journal of Marketing 1990, 54:1-26.
26. Ministry of Transportation, Road Bureau, 2009. National Road Statistics Summary, 2009 (in Chinese).
27. National Statistics Bureau of China, annual Statistical Yearbook of China. China 1995-2009, China Statistics Press, Beijing.
28. Petersen, Rudolf, 2004. Land Use Planning and Urban Transport. In: Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-makers in Developing Cities, Module 2a. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH. September 2004.
29. Rawski T.G. What's happening to China's GDP statistics?. China Economic Review 2001, 12:350-351.
30. Schaefer A., Heywood J.B., Jacoby H.D., Waitz I.A. Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World. 2009, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
31. Sperling D., Gordon D. Two Billion Cars-Driving Toward Sustainability 2009, Oxford University Press.
32. United Nations, annual (1949-2005), United Nations Statistical Yearbook. United Nations Statistics Office, New York, NY. United Nations, World Population Prospects: the 2008 Revision (Medium Growth), United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2008. New York, NY.
33. United Nations The State of Chinese Cities, 2010 2010, United Nations. Habitat for a better urban future. Foreign Languages Press, Beijing.
34. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2008. Highway Statistics. In: Our Nation's Highways. FHWA-PL-08-021. Washington, DC. Available from: 〈. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/pubs/pl08021/pdf/onh.pdf.
35. U.S.Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2009 2009, United States Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
36. Van den Bulte C., Stremersch S. Social contagion and income heterogeneity in new product diffusion: a meta-analytic test. Marketing Science 2004, 23(4):530-544.
37. Wang M., Huo H., Johnson L., He D. Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO2 emissions through 2050, Argonne National Laboratory. Energy Systems Division 2006, 06:6.
38. World Bank, annual (2005-2010), World Development Indicators, World Bank Press, Washington, DC. Available from: 〈. http://web.worldbank.org.