Managing Risk and Uncertainty on Projects: A Cognitive Approach

The Oxford Handbook of Project Management

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages

  Winch, Graham M ^a   Maytorena, Eunice ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cognitive model; Good practice; Management techniques; Project management; Project performance; Risk management

Indexed keywords

EID: 84856606578     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199563142.003.0015     Document Type: Chapter

References (79)

1. Adams, J. (1995). Risk. London: UCL Press.
2. Akerlof, G. A., and Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
3. Bazerman, M. (2008). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 7th edn. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
4. Bazerman, M. and Watkins, M. D. (2004). Predictable Surprises: The Disasters you Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent them. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
5. Boisot, M. (1995). Information Space: A Framework for Learning in Organizations, Institutions and Culture. London: Routledge.
6. Breakwell, G. M. (2007). The Psychology of Risk. New York: Cambridge University Press.
7. Buehler, R., Griffin, D., and Ross, M. (2002). "Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions," in T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (eds.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8. Clegg, S. R., Pitsis, T. S., Marosszeky, M., and Rura-Polley, T. (2006). "Making the future perfect: constructing the Olympic dream," in D. Hodgson and S. Cicmil (eds.), Making Projects Critical. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
9. Cooper, D., Grey, S., Raymond, G., and Walker, P. (2005). Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements. Chichester: Wiley.
10. Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., and Viguerie, P. (1997). "Strategy under uncertainty," Harvard Business Review, November-December: 67-79.
11. Cyert, R. M., and March, J. G. (1963). A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
12. De Meyer, A., Loch, C. H., and Pich, M. T. (2002). "Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos," MIT Sloan Management Review: 59-67.
13. Eden, C., and Spender, J. C. (1998). Managerial and Organizational Cognition: Theory, Methods and Research. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
14. Einhorn, H. J., and Hogarth, R. M. (1981). "Behavioural decision theory processes of judgement and choice," Annual Review of Psychology, 32: 53-88.
15. Fenton-O'Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., and Soane, E. (2003). "Trading on illusions: unrealistic perceptions of control and trading performance," Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 76: 53-68.
16. Fischoff, B. (1982). "Debiasing," in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
17. Fischoff, B. (2002). "Heuristics and biases in application," in T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (eds.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
18. Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). "From Nobel Prize to project management: getting risks right," Project Management Journal, 37/3: 5-15.
19. Galbraith, J. R. (1977). Organization Design. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
20. Gil, N. (2009). "Project safeguards: operationalizing option like strategic thinking in infrastructure development," IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management (in press).
21. Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., and Kahneman, D. (eds.) (2002). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
22. Goodpasture, J. C. (2004). Quantitative Methods in Project Management. Boca Raton, FL: J. Ross Publishing.
23. Halpern, J. Y. (2003). Reasoning about Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
24. Head, G. L. (1967). "An alternative to defining risk as uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2/34: 205-14.
25. HM Treasury (2003). The Green Book: Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government. London: HM Treasury.
26. HM Treasury (2004). Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias. London: HM Treasury.
27. Hillson, D. (2003). Effective Opportunity Management for Projects: Exploiting Positive Risk. New York: Marcel-Dekker.
28. Hillson, D. and Murray-Webster, R. (2005). Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude. Aldershot: Gower.
29. Hodgkinson, G. P., and Healey, M. P. (2008). "Cognition in organizations," Annual Review of Psychology, 59: 387-417.
30. Huber, O. (2007). "Behavior in risky decisions: focusing on risk defusing," in M. Abdellaoui, R. D. Luce, M. J. Machina, and B. Munier (eds.), Uncertainty and Risk: Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations. Berlin: Springer.
31. Kahneman, D., and Lovallo, D. (1993). "Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking," Management Science, 39/1: 17-32.
32. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A. (eds.) (1982). Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
33. Keeney, R. L., and Winterfeldt, D. (1991). "Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems," IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 38/3: 191-201.
34. Keynes, J. M. (1937). "The general theory of employment," Quarterly Journal of Economics: 209-23.
35. Keynes, J. M. (1961). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
36. Keynes, J. M. (1973). A Treatise on Probability: The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, viii. London: Macmillan.
37. Knight, F. H. (2002). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Washington, DC: Beard Books.
38. Langer, E. J. (1982). "The illusion of control," in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
39. Lant, T. K., and Shapira, Z. (2001). Organizational Cognition: Computation and Interpretation. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
40. LeRoy, S. F., and Singell, L. D. (1987). "Knight on risk and uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, 95: 394-406.
41. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., and Phillips, L. D. (1982). "Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980," in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
42. Loch, C. H., DeMeyer, A., and Pich, M. T. (2006). Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
43. Lovallo, D., and Kahneman, D. (2003). "Delusions of success: how optimism undermines executives' decisions," Harvard Business Review, 81: 60-71.
44. Lupton, D. (1999). Risk. London: Routledge.
45. Lyneis, J. M., and Ford, D. N. (2007). "System dynamics applied to project management: a survey, assessment, and directions for future research," System Dynamics Review, 23: 157-89.
46. March, J. G., and Shapira, Z. (1987). "Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking," Management Science, 33/11: 1404-19.
47. March, J. G., and Simon, H. (1958). Organizations. New York: Wiley.
48. Maytorena, E., Winch, G. M., Freeman, J., and Kiely, T. (2007). "The influence of experience and information search styles on project risk identification performance," IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 54/2: 315-26.
49. Miller, R., and Lessard, D. R. (2000). The Strategic Management of Large Engineering Projects. Boston: MIT Press.
50. Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., and Atmnan, C. J. (2002). Risk Communication: A Mental Model Approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
51. Neale, M. A., Tenbrundel, A. E., Galvin, T., and Bazerman, M. H. (2006). "A decision perspective on organizations: social cognition, behavioural decision theory and the psychological links to micro and macro organizational behaviour," in S. Clegg, C. Hardy, T. B. Lawrence, and R. W. Nord (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Organization Studies. London: Sage.
52. Office of Government Commerce (OGC) (2007). Management of Risk: Guidance for Practitioners, 2nd edn. London: The Stationery Office.
53. Perminova, O., Gustafsson, M., and Wikstrom, K. (2008). "Defining uncertainty in projects: a new perspective," International Journal of Project Management, 26/1: 73-9.
54. Ranyard, R., Crozier, W. R., and Svenson, O. (1997). Decision Making: Cognitive Models and Explanations. London: Routledge.
55. Raz, T., and Hillson, D. (2005). "A comparative review of risk management standards," Risk Management, 7/4: 53-66.
56. Runde, J. (1998). "Clarifying Frank Knight's discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty," Cambridge Journal of Economics, 22/5: 539-46.
57. Savage, L. J. (1954). Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
58. Savage, L. J. (1971). "Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66: 783-801.
59. Schoemaker, J. (1982). "The expected utility model: its variants, purposes, evidence and limitations," Journal of Economic Literature, 20: 529-63.
60. Shapira, Z. (1995). Risk Taking: A Managerial Perspective. New York: Russell Sage.
61. Shapira, Z. and Berndt, D. (1997). "Managing grand scale construction projects: a risk taking perspective," Research in Organizational Behavior, 19: 303-60.
62. Simon, H. (1947). Administrative Behavior. New York: Macmillan.
63. Simon, H. (1955). "A behavioral model of rational choice," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69: 99-117.
64. Skidelsky, R. (2009). Keynes: The Return of the Master. London: Allen Lane.
65. Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., and MacGregor, D. G. (2004). "Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk and rationality," Risk Analysis, 24/2: 311-22.
66. Snowden, D. J., and Boone, M. (2007). "A leader's framework for decision making," Harvard Business Review, 69-76.
67. Spetzler, C. S., and Stael Von Holstein, C.-A. (1975). "Probability encoding in decision analysis," Management Science, 22/3: 340-58.
68. Stephens, P. (2003). "The unwitting wisdom of Rumsfeld's unknowns," Financial Times, March 12.
69. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London: Penguin Books.
70. Thompson, S. C. (1999). "Illusion of control: how we overestimate our personal influence," Current Directions in Psychological Science, 8: 187-90.
71. Tversky, A., and Fox, C. R. (1995). "Weighing risk and uncertainty," Psychological Review, 102: 269-83.
72. Vick, S. G. (2002). Degrees of Belief: Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment. Reston, VA: ASCE Press.
73. von Neumann, J., and Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
74. Weick, K. L. (1979). The Social Psychology of Organizing, 2nd edn. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
75. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). "Unrealistic optimism about future life events," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39: 806-20.
76. Williams, T. (2002). Modelling Complex Projects. Chichester: Wiley.
77. Williamson, O. E. (1979). "Transaction cost economics: the governance of contractual relations," Journal of Law and Economics, 22: 223-61.
78. Winch, G. M. (2010). Managing Construction Projects: An Information Processing Approach, 2nd edn. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.
79. Winch, G. M. and Maytorena, E. (2009). "Making good sense: assessing the quality of risky decision making," Organization Studies, 30/2-3: 181-203.