Similarities between optimal precursors that trigger the onset of blocking events and optimally growing initial errors in onset prediction

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 68, Issue 12, 2011, Pages 2860-2877

  Mu, Mu ^a,b   Jiang, Zhina ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF OCEANOLOGY   (China)

^b INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^c STATE KEY LABORATORY OF SEVERE WEATHER   (China)

Author keywords

Blocking; Dynamics; Forecasting

Indexed keywords

ANOMALY PATTERNS; BLOCKING; BLOCKING ONSET; CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION; EVOLUTIONARY MECHANISMS; GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL; GROWTH BEHAVIOR; NUMERICAL RESULTS; QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC; SENSITIVE AREA; SIMILAR PATTERN; SPATIAL STRUCTURE; THREE-LEVEL;

DYNAMICS; ERRORS; FORECASTING;

OPTIMIZATION;

ERROR ANALYSIS; EVOLUTIONARY THEORY; NUMERICAL METHOD; OPTIMIZATION; QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC FLOW; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84855849826     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-037.1     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Berggren, R., B. Bolin, and C. G. Rossby, 1949: An aerological study of zonal motion, its perturbation and break-down. Tellus, 1, 14-37.
2. Birgin, E. G., J. M. Martinez, and M. Raydan, 2000: Nonmonotone spectral projected gradient methods for convex sets. SIAM J. Optim., 10, 1196-1211.
3. Buizza, R., 1994: Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 429-451.
4. Buizza, R., and A. Montani, 1999: Targeting observations using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2965-2985.
5. Colucci, S. J., 1985: Explosive cyclogenesis and large-scale circulation changes: Implications for atmospheric blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2710-2717.
6. Colucci, S. J., 1987: Comparative diagnosis of blocking versus nonblocking planetary-scale circulation changes during synoptic-scale cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 124-139.
7. Duan, W. S., M. Mu, and B. Wang, 2004: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations as the optimal precursors for ENSO events. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23105, doi:10.1029/2004JD004756.
8. Frederiksen, J. S., 1998: Precursors to blocking anomalies: The tangent linear and inverse problems. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2419-2436.
9. Frederiksen, J. S., M. A. Collier, and A. B. Watkins, 2004: Ensemble prediction of blocking regime transitions. Tellus, 56A, 485-500.
10. Jiang, Z. N., and D. H. Wang, 2010: A study on precursors to blocking anomalies in climatological flows by using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1170-1180.
11. Kim, H. M., M. C. Morgan, and R. E. Morss, 2004: Evolution of analysis error and adjoint-based sensitivities: Implications for adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 795-812.
12. Kimoto, M., H. Mukougawa, and S. Yoden, 1992: Medium-range forecast skill variation and blocking transition: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1616-1627.
13. Li, S. L., L. R. Ji, and W. T. Lin, 2001: On the formation and maintenance of the persistent anomalies of summertime circulation over the Ural Mountains. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18 (5), 819-830.
14. Li, Z. J., A. Barcilon, and I. M. Navon, 1999: Study of block onset using sensitivity perturbations in climatological flows. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 879-900.
15. Liu, Q., 1994: On the definition and persistence of blocking. Tellus, 46A, 286-298.
16. Luo, D. H., 2005a: Abarotropic envelope Rossby soliton model for block-eddy interaction. Part I: Effect of topography. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 5-21.
17. Luo, D. H., 2005b: A barotropic envelope Rossby soliton model for block-eddy interaction. Part IV: Block activity and its linkage with sheared environment. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3860-3884.
18. Luo, D. H., F. Huang, and Y. N. Diao, 2001: Interaction between antecedent planetary-scale envelope solution blocking anticyclone and synoptic-scale eddies: Observations and theory. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 31 795-31 816.
19. Marshall, J., and F. Molteni, 1993: Toward a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1792-1818.
20. Michelangeli, P. A., and R. Vautard, 1998: The dynamics of Euro-Atlantic blocking onsets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 1045-1070, doi:10.1002/qj.49712454803.
21. Molteni, F., and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite-time instability of the northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298.
22. Morss, R. E., K. A. Emanuel, and C. Snyder, 2001: Idealized adaptive observation strategies for improving numerical weather prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 210-232.
23. Mu, M., and W. S. Duan, 2003: A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chin. Sci. Bull., 48, 747-749.
24. Mu, M., and Z. N. Jiang, 2008: A method to find perturbations that trigger blocking onset: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3935-3946.
25. Mu, M., W. S. Duan, and J. F. Chou, 2004: Recent advances in predictability studies in China (1999-2002). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 437-443.
26. Mu, M., F. F. Zhou, and H. L. Wang, 2009: A method for identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1623-1639.
27. Nakamura, H., and J. M. Wallace, 1993: Synoptic behavior of baroclinic eddies during the blocking onset. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1892-1903.
28. Palmer, T. N., R. Gelaro, J. Barkmeijer, and R. Buizza, 1998: Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 633-653.
29. Peng, M. S., and C. A. Reynolds, 2006: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone forecasts as revealed by singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2508-2528.
30. Rex, D. F., 1950: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effects upon regional climate. I: An aerological study of blocking action. Tellus, 2, 196-211.
31. Shutts, G. J., 1983: The propagation of eddies in diffluent jetstreams: Eddy vorticity forcing of blocking flow fields. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 109, 737-761.
32. Tibaldi, S., and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A, 343-365.
33. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
34. Wang, D. H., and Coauthors, 2008: A preliminary analysis of features and causes of the snow storm event over the southern China in January 2008 (in Chinese). Acta Meteor. Sin., 66, 405-422.
35. Yu, Y. Y., W. S. Duan, H. Xu, and M. Mu, 2009: Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Niño events in the Zebiak-Cane model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 2146-2160.