Invasion hotspots for non-native plants in Australia under current and future climates

Global Change Biology

Volumn 18, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 617-629

  O'Donnell, Jessica ^a   Gallagher, Rachael V ^a   Wilson, Peter D ^a,c   Downey, Paul O ^b,d   Hughes, Lesley ^a   Leishman, Michelle R ^a  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service   (Australia)

^c University of Canberra ^*  (Australia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA   (Australia)

Author keywords

Australia; Bioclimatic range; Climate change; Hotspots; Invasion hotspots; Invasive plants; Land use; Maxent; Species distribution models (SDMs)

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; INVASIVE SPECIES; LAND USE; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; TAXONOMY;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84855832529     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02537.x     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Andreu J, Vilà M (2009) Risk analysis of potential invasive plants in Spain. Journal for Nature Conservation, 18, 34-44.
2. Araújo MB, Guisan A (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1677-1688.
3. Austin MP (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 101-118.
4. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2008) Australian Historical Population Statistics (cat. no. 3105.0.65.001). Available at: (accessed 20 December 2010).
5. Australian Government (2009) Australian Natural Resources Atlas - Natural Resource Topics - Biodiversity Assessment - Warren. Department of Sutainability, Environment, Water, Populations and Communities. Australian Government, Canberra. Available at: (accessed December 2010).
6. Barry S, Elith J (2006) Error and uncertainty in habitat models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 413-423.
7. Beaumont LJ, Gallagher RV, Thuiller W, Downey PO, Leishman MR, Hughes L (2009) Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 409-420.
8. Bossdorf O, Auge H, Lafuma L, Rogers WE, Siemann E, Prati D (2005) Phenotypic and genetic differentiation between native and introduced plant populations. Oecologia, 144, 1-11.
9. Broennimann O, Guisan A (2008) Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter. Biology Letters, 4, 585-589.
10. Broennimann O, Treier UA, Müller-Schärer H, Thuiller W, Peterson AT, Guisan A (2007) Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. Ecology Letters, 10, 701-709.
11. Busby JR (1991) BIOCLIM: a bioclimatic analysis and prediction system. Plant Protection Quarterly, 6, 8-9.
12. Cabral JS, Schurr FM (2010) Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 85-97.
13. Carnaval AC, Hickerson MJ, Haddad CFB, Rodrigues MT, Moritz C (2009) Stability predicts genetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. Science, 323, 785-789.
14. Catford JA, Vesk PA, White MD, Wintle BA (2011) Hotspots of plant invasion predicted by propagule pressure and ecosystem characteristics. Diversity and Distributions, doi: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00794.x.
15. Chejara VK, Kriticos DJ, Kristiansen P, Sindel BM, Whalley RDB, Nadolny C (2010) The current and future potential geographical distribution of Hyparrhenia hirta. Weed Research, 50, 174-184.
16. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al. (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL), pp. 847-940. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
17. Clements DR, DiTommaso A, Jordan N et al. (2004) Adaptability of plants invading North American cropland. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 104, 379-398.
18. Coutts-Smith AJ, Downey PO (2006) The Impact of Weeds on Threatened Biodiversity in New South Wales. Technical Series, no. 10, CRC for Australian Weed Management, Adelaide.
19. Cowling RM, Pressey RL, Rouget M, Lombard AT (2003) A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot - the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Biological Conservation, 112, 191-216.
20. Craig DJ, Craig JE, Abella SR, Vanier CH (2009) Factors affecting exotic annual plant cover and richness along roadsides in the eastern Mojave Desert, USA. Journal of Arid Environments, 74, 702-707.
21. Downey PO, Williams MC, Whiffen LK, Auld BA, Hamilton MA, Burley AL, Turner PJ (2010) Managing alien plants for biodiversity outcomes - the need for triage. Invasive Plant Science and Management, 3, 1-11.
22. Drake JM, Lodge DM (2004) Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 271, 575.
23. Echeverria C, Coomes D, Salas J, Rey-Benayas JM, Lara A, Newton A (2006) Rapid deforestation and fragmentation of Chilean temperate forests. Biological Conservation, 130, 481-494.
24. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129.
25. Ferrier S, Drielsma M (2010) Synthesis of pattern and process in biodiversity conservation assessment: a flexible whole-landscape modelling framework. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 386-402.
26. Fielding AH, Bell JF (2002) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38-49.
27. Fitzpatrick MC, Gove AD, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR (2008) Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia. Global Change Biology, 14, 1337-1352.
28. Gallagher RV, Beaumont LJ, Hughes L, Leishman MR (2010a) Evidence for climatic niche and biome shifts between native and novel ranges in plant species introduced to Australia. Journal of Ecology, 98, 790-799.
29. Gallagher RV, Hughes L, Leishman MR, Wilson PD (2010b) Predicted impact of exotic vines on an endangered ecological community under future climate change. Biological Invasions, 12, 4049-4063.
30. Ganzhorn JU, Lowry II, Porter P, Schatz GE, Sommer S (2001) The biodiversity of Madagascar: one of the world's hottest hotspots on its way out. Oryx, 35, 346-348.
31. Geng Y-P, Pan X-Y, Xu C-Y et al. (2007) Phenotypic plasticity rather than locally adapted ecotypes allows the invasive alligator weed to colonize a wide range of habitats. Biological Invasions, 9, 245-256.
32. Graham CH, Elith J, Hijmans RJ, Guisan A, Townsend Peterson A, Loiselle BA (2008) The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45, 239-247.
33. Guisan A, Graham CH, Elith J, Huettmann F (2007) Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size. Diversity and Distributions, 13, 332-340.
34. Gurevitch J, Padilla DK (2004) Are invasive species a major cause of extinctions? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 19, 470-474.
35. Heikkinen RK, Luoto M, Araújo MB, Virkkala R, Thuiller W, Sykes MT (2006) Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 30, 1-27.
36. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
37. Hobbs RJ (2001) Synergisms among habitat fragmentation, livestock grazing, and biotic invasions in southwestern Australia. Conservation Biology, 15, 1522-1528.
38. Hobbs RJ, Kristjanson LJ (2003) Triage: How do we prioritize health care for landscapes? Ecological Management & Restoration, 4, S39-S45.
39. Hopper SD, Gioia P (2004) The southwest Australian floristic region: evolution and conservation of a global hot spot of biodiversity. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 35, 623-650.
40. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
41. Kareiva P, Marvier M (2003) Conserving biodiversity coldspots recent calls to direct conservation funding to the world's biodiversity hotspots may be bad investment advice. American Scientist, 91, 344-351.
42. Kearney M, Porter W (2009) Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecology Letters, 12, 334-350.
43. Keith DA, Akçakaya HR, Thuiller W et al. (2008) Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, 4, 560-563.
44. Klanderud K, Totland Ø (2005) Simulated climate change altered dominance hierarchies and diversity of an alpine biodiversity hotspot. Ecology, 86, 2047-2054.
45. Kriticos DJ, Crossman ND, Ota N, Scott JK (2010) Climate change and invasive plants in South Australia. Report for the South Australian Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Canberra, Australia.
46. Loiselle BA, rgensen PM, Consiglio T, Jiminez I, Blake JG, Lohmann LG, Montiel OM (2008) Predicting species distributions from herbarium collections: does climate bias in collection sampling influence model outcomes? Journal of Biogeography, 35, 105-116.
47. Malanson GP, Westman WE, Yan YL (1992) Realized versus fundamental niche functions in a model of chaparral response to climatic change. Ecological Modelling, 64, 261-277.
48. Malcolm JR, Liu C, Neilson RP, Hansen L, Hannah L (2006) Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology, 20, 538-548.
49. McIntyre S, Lavorel S (1994) Predicting richness of native, rare, and exotic plants in response to habitat and disturbance variables across a variegated landscape. Conservation Biology, 8, 521-531.
50. Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Rutherford MC, Powrie LW (2002) Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 445-451.
51. Morin X, Thuiller W (2009) Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. Ecology, 90, 1301-1313.
52. Myers N (1988) Threatened biotas: ''hot-spots'' in tropical forests. Environmentalist, 8, 187-208.
53. Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Kent J (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853-858.
54. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G et al. (2000) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: (accessed 12 November 2010).
55. Nix H (1986) A biogeographic analysis of Australian elapid snakes. In: Atlas of Elapid Snakes of Australia. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, Australia.
56. North A (2003) A Weed Management Strategy for King Island. King Island Natural Resource Management Group Inc, Australia.
57. Phillips SJ, Dudik M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
58. Phillips SJ, Dudik M, Schapire RE (2004) A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. Proceedings of the twenty-first international conference on Machine learning. Banff, Alberta, Canada.
59. Pimentel D (2002) Biological Invasions: Economic and Environmental Costs of Alien Plant, Animal, and Microbe Species. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
60. Possingham HP, Wilson KA (2005) Turning up the heat on hotspots. Nature, 7053, 919-920.
61. Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP (2002) Numerical Recipes in C++. The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
62. Pulliam HR (2000) On the relationship between niche and distribution. Ecological Letters, 3, 349-361.
63. Qian H, Ricklefs RE (2006) The role of exotic species in homogenizing the North American flora. Ecology Letters, 9, 1293-1298.
64. Randall RP (2007) The Introduced Flora of Australia and its Weed Status. CRC for Australian Weed Management, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia.
65. 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 10288-10293.
66. Richardson D, Pysek P, Rejmanek M, Barbour M, Panetta F, West C (2000) Naturalization and invasion of alien plants: concepts and definitions. Diversity and Distributions, 6, 93-107.
67. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57-60.
68. Scott JK, Batchelor KL, Ota N, Yeoh PB (2008) Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Sleeper and Alert Weeds: Appendix B. Results of CLIMEX models. Parts 1, 2 & 3. CSIRO Entomology, Wembley, Western Australia.
69. Suppiah R, Hennessy KJ, Whetton PH et al. (2007) Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56, 131-152.
70. Thackway R, Cresswell ID (1995) An Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia: A Framework for Establishing the National System of Reserves. Australian Nature Conservation Agency, Canberra.
71. Thorp JR, Lynch R (2000) The Determination of Weeds of National Significance. National Weeds Strategy Executive Committee, Launceston, Australia.
72. Vitousek PM, D'Antonio CM, Loope LL, Westbrooks R (1996) Biological invasions and global environmental change. American Scientist, 84, 468-478.
73. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P et al. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389-395.
74. Watterson I, Whetton P, Moise A, Timbal B, Power S, Arblaster J (2007) Technical Report - Chapter 5: Regional climate change projections (temperature and precipitation). In: Climate Change in Australia - Technical Report 2007. CSIRO, Australia.
75. Wisz MS, Hijmans RJ, Li J, Peterson AT, Graham CH, Guisan A (2008) Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions, 14, 763-773.
76. Woodward FI (1987) Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
77. Worm B, Lotze HK, Myers RA (2003) Predator diversity hotspots in the blue ocean. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100, 9884-9888.