Low mountain ranges: Summit traps for montane freshwater species under climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation

Volumn 20, Issue 13, 2011, Pages 3133-3146

  Sauer, Jan ^a,b   Domisch, Sami ^a,b   Nowak, Carsten ^a,b   Haase, Peter ^a,b  

^a BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTRE BIK F   (Germany)

^b SENCKENBERG DEUTSCHES ENTOMOLOGISCHES INSTITUT   (Germany)

Author keywords

BIOMOD; Climate change; Low mountain ranges; Montane aquatic insects; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEM; GLOBAL CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GAS; HABITAT CONSERVATION; HABITAT LOSS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; INVERTEBRATE; MONTANE FOREST; MOUNTAIN REGION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; REFUGIUM;

ALPS; CENTRAL EUROPE;

HEXAPODA; INVERTEBRATA;

EID: 81255135915     PISSN: 09603115     EISSN: 15729710     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10531-011-0140-y     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Akaike H (1973) Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov BN, Csaki F (eds) Proceedings of the second international symposium on information theory, Budapest, pp 267-281.
2. Araújo MB, Guisan A (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. J Biogeogr 33: 1677-1688.
3. Araujo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle RJ et al (2005) Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecol Biogeogr 14: 529-538.
4. Asch K (2005) The 1: 5 Million International Geological Map of Europe and Adjacent Areas. Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), Hannover.
5. Bässler C, Müller J, Hothorn T et al (2010) Estimation of the extinction risk for high-montane species as a consequence of global warming and assessment of their suitability as cross-taxon indicators. Ecol Indi 10: 341-352.
6. Beniston M (2006) Mountain weather and climate: a general overview and a focus on climatic change in the Alps. In: Lami A, Boggero A (eds) Ecology of high altitude aquatic systems in the Alps, Hydrobiol 562: 3-16.
7. Braukmann U (1987) Zoozönologische und saprobiologische Beiträge zu einer allgemeinen regionalen Bachtypologie. Fundam Appl Limnol Arch Hydrobiol 26: 1-355.
8. Collier KJ, Smith BJ (1997) Dispersal of adult caddisflies (Trichoptera) into forests alongside three New Zealand streams. Hydrobiologica 361: 51-65.
9. CSF (2010) Centre Suisse de Cartographie de la Faune. Data accessed February 2010.
10. Diaz HF, Grosjean M, Graumlich L (2003) Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: past, present and future. Climatic Change 59: 1-4.
11. Dirnböck T, Essl F, Rabitsch W (2011) Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high-altitude endemic species under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 17: 990-996.
12. Domisch S, Jähnig SC, Haase P (2011) Climate-change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe. Freshwater Biol. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2427. 2011. 02631. x.
13. Earth Resources Observation and Science Center (1996) GTOPO30 database from the USGS (United States Geological Survey). Eros Data Center, USA. http://eros.usgs. gov cited 24 Jan 2010.
14. Ellenberg H (1996) Vegetation Mitteleuropas mit den Alpen in ökologischer dynamischer und historischer Sicht. Verlag Eugen Ulmer, Stuttgart.
15. Engelhardt CHM, Pauls SU, Haase P (2008) Population genetic structure of the caddisfly Rhyacophila pubescens, Pictet 1834, north of the Alps. Fundam Appl Limnol Arch Hydrobiol 173: 165-175.
16. Environmental Systems Research Institute (2006) ArcGIS 9. 3. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands.
17. Essl F, Staudinger M, Stöhr O et al (2009) Distribution patterns, range size and niche breadth of Austrian endemic plants. Biol Conserv 142: 2547-2558.
18. Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24: 38-49.
19. Flato GM, Boer GJ, Lee WG et al (2000) The Canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis global coupled model and its climate. Clim Dyn 16: 451-467.
20. GBIF (2007) Global Biodiversity Information Facility: free and open access to biodiversity data http://www.gbif.org. Data accessed February 2010.
21. Gordon HB, O'Farrell SP (1997) Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon Wea Rev 125: 875-907.
22. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA et al (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16: 147-168.
23. Grabher G, Gottfried M, Pauli H (1994) Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369: 448.
24. Haase P (1999) Zoozönosen, Chemismus und Struktur regionaler Bachtypen im niedersächsischen und nordhessischen Bergland. Dissertation, Universität Gesamthochschule Kassel.
25. Habel JC, Schmitt T, Meyer M et al (2010) Biogeography meets conservation: the genetic structure of the endangered lycaenid butterfly Lycaena helle (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775). Biol J Linn Soc 101: 155-168.
26. Heino J, Virkkala R, Toivonen H (2009) Climate change and freshwater biodiversity: detected patterns, future trends and adaptations in northern regions. Biol Rev 84: 39-54.
27. Hering D, Schmidt-Kloiber A, Murphy J et al (2009) Potential impact of climate change on aquatic insects: A sensitivity analysis for European caddisflies (Trichoptera) based on distribution patterns and ecological preferences. Aquat Sci 71: 3-14.
28. Hewitt G (2000) The genetic legacy of the quaternary ice ages. Nature 405: 907-913.
29. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK et al (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Glob Chang Biol 12: 450-455.
30. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL et al (2005a) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25: 1965-1978.
31. Hijmans RJ, Guarino L, Jarvis A et al. (2005b) DIVA-GIS Version 5. 2 manual.
32. IPCC (2007a) Working group II report impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group ii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 976.
33. IPCC (2007b) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Quin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1-18.
34. Kubow KB, Robinson CT, Shama LNS et al (2010) Spatial scaling in the phylogeography of an alpine caddisfly, Allogamus uncatus, within the central European Alps. J N Am Benthol Soc 29: 1089-1099.
35. Küttner R, Hohmann M, Plesky B et al (2008) Zur Verbreitung und Ökologie von Brachyptera braueri (Klapálek, 1900) (Insecta: Plecoptera) in Mitteldeutschland unter Berücksichtigung weiterer Plecoptera-Arten des zeitigen Frühjahres. Lauterbornia 63: 31-50.
36. Lehrian S, Bálint M, Haase P, Pauls SU (2010) Genetic population structure of an autumn-emerging caddisfly with inherently low dispersal capacity and insights into its phylogeography. J N Am Benthol Soc 29: 1100-1118.
37. Lomolino MV (2001) Elevation gradients of species-density: historical and prospective views. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 10: 3-13.
38. MacNeale KH, Peckarsky BL, Likens GE (2005) Stable isotopes identify dispersal patterns of stonefly populations living along stream corridors. Freshwater Biol 50: 1117-1130.
39. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37: 637-660.
40. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
41. Pauli H, Gottfried M, Reiter K et al (2007) Signals of range expansion and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994-2004) at the GLORIA master site Schrankvogel, Tyrol Austria. Glob Chang Biol 13: 147-156.
42. Pauls SU, Lumbsch HT, Haase P (2006) Phylogeography of the montane caddisfly Drusus discolor: evidence for multiple refugia and periglacial survival. Mol Ecol 15: 2153-2169.
43. Petersen I, Masters Z, Hildrew AG et al (2004) Dispersal of adult aquatic insects in catchments of differing land use. J Appl Ecol 41: 934-950.
44. Pope VD, Gallani ML, Rowntree PR et al (2000) The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Clim Dyn 16: 123-146.
45. Randin CF, Engler R, Normand S et al (2009) Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence. Glob Chang Biol 15: 1557-1569.
46. Riordan EC, Rundel PW (2009) Modelling the distribution of a threatened habitat: the California sage scrub. J Biogeogr 36: 2176-2188.
47. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR et al (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
48. Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ et al (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the Year 2100. Science 287: 1770-1774.
49. Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R et al (2005) Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310: 1333-1337.
50. Stockwell DRB, Peterson AT (2002) Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecol Modelling 148: 1-13.
51. Swets JA (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240: 1285-1293.
52. Taubmann J, Theissinger K, Feldheim KA et al (2011) Modelling range shifts and assessing genetic diversity distribution of the montane aquatic mayfly Ameletus inopinatus in Europe under climate change scenarios. Conserv Genet 12: 503-515.
53. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
54. Thuiller W (2003) BIOMOD-optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob Change Biol 9: 1352-1362.
55. Thuiller W (2007) Climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448: 550-552.
56. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB et al (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 23: 8245-8250.
57. Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R et al (2009) BIOMOD-a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32: 369-373.
58. Ujvárosi L, Bálint M, Schmitt T et al (2010) Divergence and speciation in the Carpathians area: patterns of morphological and genetic diversity of the crane fly Pedicia occulta (Diptera: Pediciidae). J N Am Benthol Soc 29: 1075-1088.
59. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P et al (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395.
60. Wasson JG, Chandesris A, Garcia A et al (2007) Relationships between ecological and chemical status of surface waters. European Hydro- Ecoregions. Cemagref, Lyon, p 43.
61. Wilcock HR, Nichols RA, Hildrew AG (2003) Genetic population structure and neighbourhood population size estimates of the caddisfly Plectrocnemia conspersa. Freshwater Biol 48: 1813-1824.
62. Wilson RJ, Gutiérrez D, Gutiérrez J et al (2005) Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecol Lett 8: 1138-1146.
63. Winterbourn MJ, Cadbury S, Ilg C et al (2007) Mayfly production in a New Zealand glacial stream and the potential effect of climate change. Hydrobiol 603: 211-219.