The Role of Immunity and Seasonality in Cholera Epidemics

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

Volumn 73, Issue 12, 2011, Pages 2916-2931

  Sanches, Rosângela P ^a   Ferreira, Claudia P ^a   Kraenkel, Roberto A ^a  

^a SÃO PAULO STATE UNIVERSITY UNESP   (Brazil)

Author keywords

Bimodal; Cholera; Control mechanisms; Endemic state; Mathematical model; Resonance

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CHOLERA; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; IMMUNOLOGY; MATHEMATICAL PHENOMENA; SEASON;

CHOLERA; EPIDEMICS; HUMANS; MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SEASONS;

EID: 80855131635     PISSN: 00928240     EISSN: 15229602     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-011-9652-6     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Brayton, P. R., Tamplin, M. L., Huq, A., & Colwell, R. R. (1987). Enumeration of vibrio cholerae 01 in Bangladesh waters by fluorescent-antibody direct viable count. Appl. Environ. Microbiol., 53, 2862-2865.
2. Cash, R., Muic, S. I., Libonati, J. P., Snyder, M. J., Wenzel, R. P., & Hornick, R. B. (1974). Response of man to infection with Vibrio cholerae. I. Clinical, serologic, and bacteriologic responses to a known inoculum. J. Infect. Dis., 129, 45-52.
3. Codeço, C. (2001). Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir. BMC Infectious Diseases, 1. doi: 10. 1186/1471-2334-1-1.
4. Colwell, R. R., & Huq, A. (1994). Environmental reservoir of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 740, 44-53.
5. Curtis, V. A., Danquah, L. O., & Aunger, R. V. (2009). Planned, motivated and habitual hygiene behaviour: an eleven country review. Health Educ. Res., 24, 655-673.
6. Dushoff, J., Plotkin, J. B., Levin, S. A., & Earn, D. J. D. (2004). Dynamical resonance can account for the seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101(48), 16915-16916.
7. Ferreira, C. P., Yang, Y. M., & Esteva, L. (2008). Assessing the suitability of sterile insect technique applied to Aedes aegypti. J. Biol. Syst., 16, 565-577.
8. Greenmam, J., Kamo, M., & Boots, M. (2004). External forcing of ecological and epidemiological systems: a resonance approach. Physica D, 190, 136-151.
9. Hartley, D. M., Morris Jr., J. G., & Smith, D. L. (2006). Hiperinfectivity: a critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics? PLoS Med., 3(1), 63-69.
10. Hsu, S., & Hsieh, Y. (2008). On the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission dynamics of infectious disease. Bull. Math. Biol., 70, 134-155.
11. Hurwitz, A. (1895). On the conditions under which an equation has only roots with negative real parts. Math. Ann., 46, 273-284.
12. Kaper, J. B., Morris Jr., J. G., & Levine, M. M. (1995). Cholera. Clin. Microbiol. Rev., 8, 48-86.
13. Keeling, M. J., & Rohani, P. (2008). Modelling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
14. King, A. A., Ionides, E. L., Pascual, M., & Bouma, M. J. (2008). Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature, 454(14), 877-881.
15. Koelle, K., Rodó, X., Pascual, M., Yunus, Md., & Mostafa, G. (2005). Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature, 436(4), 696-700.
16. Koelle, K., & Pascual, M. (2004). Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. Am. Nat., 163(6), 901-913.
17. Koelle, K., Pascual, M., & Yunus, Md. (2006). Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics. Proc. Royal Soc., Biol. Sci., 273, 2879-2886.
18. Longini Jr., I. M., Nizam, A., Ali, M., Yunus, M., Shenvi, N., & Clemens, J. D. (2007). Controlling endemic cholera with oral vaccines. PLoS Med., 4(11), 1776-1783.
19. Lipp, E. K., Huq, A., & Colwell, R. R. (2002). Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model. Clin. Microbiol. Rev., 15(4), 757-770.
20. Mahalanabis, A., Lopez, A. L., Sur, D., Deen, J., Manna, B., et al. (2008). A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of the bivalent killed, whole-cell, oral cholera vaccine in adults and children in a cholera endemic area in Kolkata, India. PLoS ONE, 3(6), 1-7.
21. Merrell, D. S., Butler, S. M., Qadri, F., Dolganov, N. A., Alama, A., Cohen, M. B., Calderwood, S. B., Schoolnik, G. K., & Camilli, A. (2002). Host-induced epidemic spread of the cholera bacterium. Nature, 417(6), 642-645.
22. Neilan, R. L. M., Schaefer, E., Gaff, H., Fister, K. R., & Lenhart, S. (2010). Modeling optimal intervention strategies for cholera. Bull. Math. Biol. doi: 10. 1007/s11538-010-9521-8.
23. Nayfeh, A. H., & Mook, D. T. (2004). Nonlinear oscillations. Weinheim: Wiley-VCH.
24. Pascual, M., Bouma, M. J., & Dobson, A. P. (2002). Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes Infect., 4, 237-245.
25. Seidlein, L. V. (2007). Vaccines for cholera control: does herd immunity play a role? PLoS Med., 4(11), 1719-1721.
26. Sur, D., et al. (2009). Efficacy and safety of a modified killed-whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in India: an interim analysis of a cluster-randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Lancet, 349, 1694-1702.
27. Tauxe, R. V., Mintz, E. D., & Quick, R. E. (1995). Epidemic cholera in the New World: translating field epidemiology into prevention strategies. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 1(4), 141-146.
28. World Health Organization (2010). High hopes for oral cholera vaccine. Bull. World Health Organ., 88(3), 165-166.
29. Vezzulli, L., Pruzzo, C., Huq, A., & Colwell, R. R. (2010). Environmental reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae and their role in cholera. Environ. Microbiol. Rep., 2(1), 27-33.
30. Zuckerman, J. N., Rombo, L., & Fisch, A. (2007). The true burden and risk of cholera: implications for prevention and control. Lancet Infect. Dis., 7(8), 521-530.